cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/23/2011 10:42 PM


Thursday, November 24

NFL Thanksgiving Day action: What bettors need to know

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6, 55.5)

THE STORY: The Green Bay Packers have seemingly been on cruise control ever since they won the Super Bowl. With an unblemished record after 10 games this season and a franchise-best 16 consecutive wins overall dating to last season, Aaron Rodgers and Co. have resembled a runaway locomotive as they've run roughshod over the league. Despite their considerable accomplishments, the Packers will ride into the Motor City for their Thanksgiving Day matinee against the NFC North rival Detroit Lions with an uneasy feeling. Why, you ask? Well, this situation played itself out nearly a half-century ago – with the 1962 Lions putting an emphatic stop to the Packers' plans for an undefeated season with a 26-14 triumph. Back to the present, the Lions have amassed at least 45 points in two of their last three games, showing that they have the firepower to keep up with the high-octane Packers.

TV: FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (10-0): Rodgers (3,168 yards, 31 TDs) is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 3,100-plus passing yards and 30-plus TDs in the first 10 games of a season. He has thrown for at least two scores in every contest this campaign. Although WR Greg Jennings exited last week's 35-26 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a knee injury, fellow wideout Jordy Nelson continued his solid play by scoring twice. Nelson now has five TDs in his last three games, but will face Detroit's stingy passing defense that allows an NFL fifth-best 192.8 passing yards per game.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-3): Running back Kevin Smith is making the most of his second chance. After being reduced to second fiddle behind Jahvid Best – and then eventually unemployed – Smith returned with a vengeance by rushing for 140 yards and amassing a career-high three touchdowns in last week's 49-35 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Quarterback Matthew Stafford showed no ill effects of a fractured index finger last week, tossing a team record-tying five touchdowns and amassing a franchise-best 121.9 passer rating. Stafford could have a field day against the Packers' 31st-ranked pass defense (289.3 yards per game).


1. Although it is a staple on Thanksgiving, Detroit hasn't emerged victorious on the holiday since it defeated Green Bay in 2003. The Packers bested the Lions on Turkey Day in both 2007 and 2009.

2. Green Bay RB James Starks (knee sprain, ankle) and Jennings (knee) were limited in Tuesday's practice, but are both expected to play versus the Lions.

3. While the accomplishment in 1962 is nice, Detroit can also look to a more recent event for success against Green Bay. The Lions posted a 7-3 win over the Packers at Ford Field on Dec. 12, 2010. It should be noted that Rodgers was knocked out of the contest with a concussion during the second quarter.


Not much to report on this game on the short week. Some shops opened as low as +5.5 while others are using +6.5. Every sportsbook in Nevada and offshore has this one under a touchdown spread with +6 seen as the most common number being dealt.

Maybe the most surprising adjustment was the bump on the total. The over/under line opened at 55.5 – about as high of a total you’ll see for an NFL game – and has been bet up to 56.5 at a few places.


The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Lions are 6-1 in their last seven games as underdogs and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.

The over is 16-6-1 in Detroit’s last 23 games overall and 4-0 in Green Bay’s last four games.

PREDICTION: Packers 38, Lions 28. Stafford and stud wideout Calvin Johnson will give the home fans a show, but Rodgers and Jennings will keep Green Bay on its path for an undefeated season.

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 44)

THE STORY: Miami Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore never got a chance to make an impact in his brief stint with the Dallas Cowboys. A fellow undrafted free agent by the name of Tony Romo was playing pretty well at the time. Four years later, Moore’s doing his best to secure a permanent starting job – just as Romo did with the Cowboys. Moore will try to lead the resurgent Miami Dolphins to a fourth straight win against Romo and the first-place Cowboys in a Thanksgiving Day matchup that suddenly has much more intrigue. Dallas, which has won three straight for the first time since 2009 to move into a tie for first in the NFC East, is 27-15-1 on Thanksgiving.

TV: CBS, 4:15 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-7): Miami has outscored opponents 86-20 during the team’s first three-game winning streak since 2008. The Dolphins were one of the front-runners in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes before Moore and the defense caught fire. Moore (160 yards, 3 TDs in a 35-8 win over Buffalo) has thrown six touchdowns and just one interception in that span. Meanwhile, the defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown this month. Miami has allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL (3) and ranks sixth in the league in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). RB Reggie Bush has also come on strong, rushing for 274 yards and four touchdowns in the last four games.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-4): Dallas eked out its third straight win, 27-24 over Washington as rookie Dan Bailey booted a 39-yard field goal in overtime. Romo was at his best, eluding the rush while throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown for 841 yards with eight touchdowns and, more importantly, zero interceptions in the last three games. Romo is 18-2 in November and 12-0 at home during the month. Dallas needed him more on a day when rookie RB DeMarco Murray was held in check (23 carries, 75 yards) after rushing for 601 yards and four scores in the previous four games. WR Laurent Robinson has been outstanding while filling in for Miles Austin (hamstring), scoring five touchdowns in the last four games.


1. Romo has been outstanding on Thanksgiving, completing 69 percent of his attempts (83 of 120) for 1,141 yards with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions in four starts. He sat out last season’s 30-27 defeat to New Orleans – a loss ended the Cowboys' four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving – with a broken collarbone.

2. Dallas tried to sneak Moore onto its practice squad during the 2007 preseason, but he was claimed by Carolina. He was 15 of 28 for 182 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 20-13 loss to the Cowboys that season.

3. Bailey has made 24 straight field goals, three shy of the team record set by Chris Boniol in 1996.


Oddsmakers all thought Dallas -7 was the right line for this game and the bettors seem to agree. There’s been no movement on the line and the juice seems to be staying put at -110. The total has gone up from 44 to 44.5 at some locations but it’s also dropped back down to 44 at other shops.


The Dolphins are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The Cowboys are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in November but 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.

The under is 8-0-1 in the Dolphins’ last nine games overall and 20-6 in their last 26 road games. The over, on the other hand, is 11-3 in Dallas’ last 14 home games and 17-6 in its last 23 games overall.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 17. Miami’s defense is playing well, but Romo usually shines in November, especially on Thanksgiving.

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 38.5)

THE STORY: When celebrating Thanksgiving, it’s always nice to have family around. Even if that family happens to be separated by 160 feet of football field at M&T Bank Stadium. San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will guide his team east to visit brother John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The old adage is that teams win football games by running the ball and stopping the run. The 49ers are proving that remains true even in today’s pass-happy NFL. Winners of eight straight, San Francisco ranks first against the run and sixth in rushing. John Harbaugh has a similar philosophy, with the Ravens ranking sixth against the run, but prefers to air it out a bit more on offense. The 49ers can clinch at least a tie for the NFC West with a win Thursday while the Ravens are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (9-1): A San Francisco win and a Seattle loss to Washington on Sunday clinches the NFC West, though at this point the 49ers have loftier goals. Last Sunday’s 23-7 victory clinched the franchise’s first winning season since 2002 and marked the 32nd straight game in which San Francisco’s defense has held an opponent under 100 yards rushing. The 49ers lead the NFL with a plus-17 turnover margin.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-3): Baltimore bounced back from a loss at Seattle by earning a key division win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Joe Flacco continued his up-and-down season by posting a 105.5 rating after putting up a 67.4 in the Seattle loss. Running at the San Francisco defense will be Ray Rice, who went for 104 yards and two touchdowns last week to reach the century mark for the first time since Week 6.


1. “It’s about football. I’m sure both of our focuses are going to be on the game and out teams.” – John Harbaugh, when asked if he and his brother would be taking some time out for turkey. “There’s really no time for anything else.”

2. 49ers tight end Vernon Davis passed Brent Jones for first in franchise history with his 34th touchdown last week.

3. Ravens LB Ray Lewis missed last week with a foot injury and is questionable for Thursday.


Oddsmakers all opened with the Ravens giving more than a field goal but bettors have brought the spread down to home-field line. Some shops had Baltimore as high as 5-point chalk but most opened either at -4 or -3.5. It still can be found at both -3 and -3.5 depending on the sportsbook.

The total was as high as 39.5 earlier this week but has been bet down to 38.5 pretty much across the board.


It’s been said many times on this site but it bears repeating, San Fran is undefeated against the spread this season at 9-0-1.

The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.

The under is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five games overall while the over is 4-0 in the Baltimore’s last four games.

PREDICTION: 49ers 21, Ravens 10. San Francisco will stop the run and force Flacco into mistakes.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:35 AM

Week 12 Preview: Packers at Lions



Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -6, Total: 55.5

Detroit is hoping to end two long streaks on Thanksgiving Day when it hosts Green Bay. The Packers have won 16 straight games and the Lions have suffered seven straight losses (SU and ATS) on the November holiday.

The Lions haven’t come within 11 points in any of their Thanksgiving defeats. But the good news is that Green Bay allowed 455 yards of offense to Tampa Bay last week while the Lions hung 49 points on Carolina. Also, they beat the Packers at home in a defensive struggle last year, 7-3. That game gets an asterisk because QB Aaron Rodgers left with a concussion late in the first half, but the Lions had held him to 46 passing yards and no points when he left, and third-string QB Drew Stanton was the Lions’ starter. Both of these teams have been highly profitable bets over the past two seasons, as Green Bay is 20-10 ATS (67%) and Detroit is even better at 18-6 ATS (75%). And the Lions are a stellar 14-5 ATS (74%) against NFC teams over this same span. The Packers may win a tight game, but expect DETROIT to cover the spread.

The FoxSheets provide this pair of three-star trends supporting the Lions:

DETROIT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive Overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 24.9, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season. (33-10 since 1983.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

Green Bay is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in the past 10 meetings with Detroit, and Rodgers has been a big part of that with 262 passing YPG, 14 TD and 4 INT in his six career games in this series. And nobody has been better than Rodgers this season, or possibly ever, as he has thrown for 317 passing YPG with 31 TD and just 4 INT. With the Packers’ top running back, James Starks, questionable with a sprained knee, Green Bay might not be able to take advantage of Detroit’s 27th-ranked run defense (135 YPG allowed).

Although Rodgers is playing on another level, the Lions are fifth in the NFL in passing defense (193 YPG) and tied for second in the league with 15 interceptions. If their front four can put the pressure on Rodgers, Detroit has enough playmakers to ruin Green Bay’s Thanksgiving. The Lions have done a great job creating turnovers recently with 12 takeaways in the past five weeks.

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is coming off a monster game against Carolina, throwing for 335 yards and 5 TD. However, he also threw two interceptions, giving him six in the past two games. Stafford also threw four picks the only time he faced Green Bay in 2009. And considering the Packers defense leads the league with 19 interceptions, Stafford must make smart decisions throwing the football. But the Packers have been exposed in the passing game all year, allowing the second-most yards in the NFL (289 passing YPG).

The Lions won’t likely have top RB Jahvid Best (concussion) back on the field, but they will have Kevin Smith who is coming off a brilliant performance against Carolina. Smith rushed for 140 yards on just 16 carries (8.8 YPC) and caught four passes for 61 more yards, reaching the end zone three times. Smith has not found a lot of running room against Green Bay in the past though, gaining just 248 yards on 74 carries (3.4 YPC) with one touchdown in five career meetings with the Pack, all ending in Detroit losses.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:39 AM

Lions And Packers Kick Off NFL Thanksgiving Triology

The Green Bay Packers have completed their first 10 steps towards a perfect season, but on Thanksgiving Day, they could be facing their toughest test when they take on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.

NFL betting action will continue until the Turkey Day kickoff this Thursday at 12:30 p.m. (ET). Television coverage can be found on FOX Sports.

The Packers (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) just continue to pour it on offensively. They aren't quite on the pace of the 2007 New England Patriots, who scored 589 points in their 16 victories, but they are certainly getting there. Green Bay scored 33 or more points for the fourth straight game last week when it beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35-26.

Green Bay ranks No. 4 in the game offensively at 406.5 YPG, and easily has the most points scored this year at 35.5 PPG.

At times, there is just no stopping this passing game. Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are both on pace for 1,200-yard seasons receiving, and that doesn't even include the fact that Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Donald Driver and James Starks all have at least 200 receiving yards.

The truth of the matter is that this game isn't the end all, be all for the Lions (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS). They aren't going to win the NFC North one way or the other, and regardless of how this game turns out, they are at least going to be tied for one of the Wild Card slots in the NFC.

However, the entire city of Detroit will probably tell you that this is the biggest sporting event it has seen in quite some time. There's no doubt that it is the biggest game that the Lions have played in decades, as it is a chance for them to prove that they really are one of the elite teams in the league.

This offense isn't exactly slouching either. The Lions are averaging 30.1 PPG, No. 3 in the NFL, and they have posted at least 45 points three times this year.

Matthew Stafford needs 157 passing yards to reach 3,000 for the season. He tossed five scores last week in a win against the Carolina Panthers, giving him 25 TDs against 10 INTs for the season.

His top target is Calvin Johnson, who has 59 receptions for 974 yards and 11 TDs on the campaign.

The running game got a big boost last week from Kevin Smith, who once was nearly a 1,000-yard rusher for Detroit before falling out of favor and eventually getting released. He toted the rock 16 times for 140 yards and two TDs against Carolina in his first meaningful action in basically three years, and he also had a touchdown as a receiver. With Jahvid Best still nursing a concussion and doubtful to play on Thanksgiving, Smith could be seeing a ton of work.

However, Green Bay's No. 12 ranked rush defense is a heck of a lot better than that of the No. 30 ranked Panthers, so Smith might find the sledding a lot tougher this week.

The Lions are 33-36-2 on Thanksgiving Day, while Green Bay is 13-18-2. Detroit hasn't won a game on Thanksgiving Day since a 2003 victory over none other than these Packers. Since that point, the team is 0-7 SU and ATS. The Packers beat the Lions in both 2007 and 2009 in recent history on Thanksgiving.

The first meeting of these two on Turkey Day was back in 1951. Since then, the Lions own a 11-7-1 SU advantage in this series when the two meet on the fourth Thursday of November.

The Packers opened up this week as six-point favorites, while the NFL betting lines feature a total of 55, easily the highest of all of the games this week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:42 AM

Total Talk - Thanksgiving

November 23, 2011

The NFL action starts early this week with its annual Thanksgiving Day slate on Thursday. We’ll recap Week 11 and much more in our weekly Total Talk installment on Friday. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the three holiday totals.
Green Bay at Detroit: Anytime you see a total in the fifties, you scratch your head and that’s the case with the first holiday battle. Most sportsbooks sent out 55 and the number has already jumped to 56 at a few outfits. There have been 14 games this season with a total of 50 points and more and ironically the ‘over/under’ owns a 7-7 record.

When you delve into the numbers, it’s really hard to argue for and ‘under’ play because you know both clubs will score. Green Bay leads the league with 35.5 points per game and Detroit is ranked third (30.1 PPG). The Packers have a combined 51 scores (31 TDs, 16 FGs) while the Lions have 44 (25 TDs, 19 FGs). Do the quick math and each team should get at least five scores here, but obviously we don’t know the combination of touchdowns to field goals for this week.

To no surprise, the Packers and Lions have both seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 in their first 10 games but make a note that the ‘under’ is 3-2 in Detroit’s five games at Ford Field this season. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, with totals ranging from 45 ½ to 48 ½.

On Thanksgiving, Detroit has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four, with the lone ‘under’ being Green Bay’s 34-12 (48) victory in 2009. Make a note that the Packers also smacked the Lions 37-26 (47) in 2007 on Turkey Day as well.

Not sure if we’ll see a change, but certainly due.

Miami at Dallas: While the first game has all the making of a shootout, the second affair could be a slugfest at least when you look at their total tendencies. Since the ‘over’ cashed in their Week 1 loss to losing to New England (24-38) in Week 1, the Dolphins have watched the ‘under’ cash in nine straight games. And what’s even more surprising is that Miami’s offense has played well recently, posting 31, 20 and 35 points, which has translated into three straight wins. While the attack has improved, the Fins’ defense has been better. Miami has given up a total of 20 points during its winning streak but we might want to tread lightly on those performances.

With all due respect to Rex Grossman, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick, those signal callers aren’t close to quarterback Tony Romo. The Cowboys have had some speed bumps with their gun slinger but he’s got the team on a three-game winning streak as well. During this run, Romo has passed for seven scores and no interceptions. The offense has averaged 31.3 PPG and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1. Make a note that even though the ‘Boys offense is on a roll, the defense has been a beast at home. Dallas has held four of its five opponents to 16 points or less and if you loss at its loss to Detroit (30-34), the Lions’ offense only put up 20 points, with the other 14 points coming from pick-six scores.

Prior to last year’s shootout loss to New Orleans (27-30), the Cowboys have held their last four opponents on Thanksgiving to 10 points or less. The total opened at 44 and has held steady all week.

San Francisco at Baltimore: We loved the 49ers ‘under’ (40.5) in last week’s TT and it came through rather easily in the team’s 23-7 victory over Arizona. The focus was on San Francisco’s offense, which is averaging 25.6 PPG. That’s a great number but I look at execution and the 49ers have more field goals (26) than touchdowns (25) this season. It’s good that they convert and that helps ATS numbers (9-0-1) but not necessarily ‘over’ tickets. San Francisco has seen its totals go 5-5 this season, but the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 on the road, which tells us something has to give since Baltimore has been an ‘over’ team (4-1) at M&T Bank Stadium.

Even though the Ravens’ defense (17.6 PPG) is ranked fourth in points allowed, the unit has lost some of their swagger and the numbers either point to age or attention to detail. Did you know Baltimore has allowed 718 yards in penalties, which is the worst in the NFL? We totally understand that you can’t handicap penalties or turnovers, but it’s becoming more of a trend than a coincidence – at least this season.

Offensively, Baltimore’s numbers at home (31.8 PPG) have been lights out. And those stats have come up against some solid defensive units in the Steelers, Jets and Bengals. The 49ers (14.5) are certainly in that class, which makes this total even tough to handicap. The opener got hit from 39 ½ to 38 ½ points.

Since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in the five installments, including the last two.

Fearless Predictions

Best Over: Green Bay-Detroit 55.5

Best Under: Miami-Dallas 44

Best Team Total: Under Miami 18.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Green Bay-Detroit 46.5
Under Miami-Dallas 53
Under San Francisco-Baltimore 47.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:44 AM

Thanksgiving Day Action

November 23, 2011

The Thanksgiving Day card in the NFL is one of the strongest in recent memories with three quality matchups. We'll focus on the two daytime contests as three of the four teams involved are serious playoff threats inside the NFC. Things begin in the Motor City as Green Bay looks to stay unbeaten against an upstart Detroit squad.

Packers (-6, 55 ½) at Lions - 12:30 PM EST

Green Bay continued its winning ways by holding off Tampa Bay this past Sunday, 35-26 to improve to 10-0. The Packers failed to cash as 14-point favorites, but still own a strong 7-3 ATS mark as Mike McCarthy's team heads to Detroit for an NFC North showdown with the Lions.

Detroit (7-3) rallied past Carolina, 49-35, by erasing a 17-point deficit thanks to five second-half touchdowns. The Lions grabbed the cover as seven-point 'chalk,' while Matthew Stafford tossed a career-high five touchdown passes and Kevin Smith ran for two scores on the ground. Detroit is just 2-3 since a 5-0 start, but the Lions are in a good spot for a Wild Card berth as they begin Week 12 tied with the Bears.

These two clubs split a pair of meetings last season, even though the Lions took home the cash each time. Detroit upset Green Bay last December at Ford Field, 7-3, as seven-point underdogs in a battle of backup quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game early due to a concussion, while Drew Stanton hit Will Heller for the game's only touchdown in the fourth quarter.

The Lions haven't been a great play on Thanksgiving over the years, racking up an 0-7 SU/ATS mark the last seven Turkey Days. What makes this number even uglier is all seven defeats have come by double-digits, including a 45-24 loss to the Patriots last November as 6 ½-point 'dogs. In Green Bay's previous Thanksgiving visit to Motown in 2009, the Packers slaughtered the Lions, 34-12 as 11-point favorites.

Each team is riding a nice 'over' streak as Green Bay has cashed four consecutive 'overs,' while Detroit is in the midst of a three-game 'over' stretch. However, the Lions are just 2-3 to the 'over' at Ford Field, including the shootout victory over the Panthers in Week 11. This is only the third game all season that the Packers have played with a total of at least 50 ('under' at Atlanta, 'over' at San Diego).

Dolphins at Cowboys (-7, 44) - 4:15 PM EST

Both these teams have won three straight games, but it's the Cowboys (6-4) who are in a better position to succeed than the Dolphins (3-7). Dallas enters Thursday's action tied atop the NFC East with New York, while Miami is still mired in last place of the AFC East in spite of this hot stretch. The Cowboys are hitting their stride at exactly the right time, heading into their favorite holiday.

Dallas is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS the last five games on Thanksgiving, including a cover in a 30-27 loss to New Orleans last season as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Cowboys have struggled as a home favorite the previous two seasons with a 3-8 ATS record, even though Jason Garrett's club has cashed in two of the last three home contests (Rams and Bills). The key to Dallas' 4-1 mark at home is the Cowboys' defense allowing 16 points or less in four games, while allowing two defensive touchdowns in a loss to the Lions.

Miami's offense finally woke up the last three weeks by averaging 28.6 ppg, including a season-high 35 points against Buffalo this past Sunday. The eight-game 'under' streak came to an end thanks to a 'push' on the 43 total, while the Dolphins' defense has allowed a grand total of 20 points during this three-game winning streak. From a pointspread perspective, the Dolphins are 4-0 ATS the last four weeks, while culminating a 17-7 ATS ledger as a road 'dog under Tony Sparano.

Dallas is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season against AFC opponents, including road covers in close losses to the Jets and Patriots. Miami has fared well in interconference action with a 5-2 ATS record since November 2009, while cashing in each of the last four contests on the highway. The 'under' has been kind to the Dolphins away from South Florida this season by cashing in all five road games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:47 AM

San Francisco at Baltimore

November 24, 2011

Click here for San Francisco-Baltimore Winners!

Are the 49ers Super Bowl contenders?

According to the sportsbooks, they are. The team is currently listed as the third choice (8/1) at to win this year’s championship, behind Green Bay (2/1) and New England (9/1).

San Francisco just notched its ninth victory in Week 11, easily beating Arizona 23-7 as a 10-point home favorite. With the win, the 49ers have produced their best record since they went 10-6 in 2002 under Steve Mariucci and they’ve already cashed WIN TOTAL tickets for some sharp bettors.

Most would expect new head coach Jim Harbaugh to top the 10-win mark, even though the club finishes with four of their last six on the road. Playing outside of the Bay Area this season has been nothing short of gold for the club. San Francisco has gone 4-0 both straight up and against the spread on the road, which has helped their overall ATS record (9-0-1).

What’s more impressive about the 49ers’ road mark is where the games have been played, all in the Eastern Time Zone. A lot of gamblers and handicappers like to fade teams traveling from West to East and vice versa. Unfortunately that theory hasn’t panned out well this season.

West Coast @ East Coast Results
Matchup SU - ATS
San Francisco 13 @ Cincinnati 9 Win - Win
San Francisco 24 @ Philadelphia 23 Win - Win
San Francisco 25 @ Detroit Win - Win
San Francisco 19 @ Washington 11 Win - Win
Oakland 35 @ Buffalo 38 Loss - Win
San Diego 21 @ New England 35 Loss - Loss
San Diego 21 @ New York Jets 27 Loss - Loss
San Diego 21 @ New England 35 Loss - Loss
Seattle 0 @ Pittsburgh 24 Loss - Loss
Seattle 36 @ New York Giants 25 Win - Win
Seattle 3 @ Cleveland Loss - Push
Arizona 21 @ Washington 22 Loss - Win
Arizona 27 @ Baltimore 30 Loss - Win
Arizona 21 @ Philadelphia 17 Win - Win
Overall Results: SU (7-6) ATS (9-3-1)

Looking at the above table, you can see that San Francisco isn’t the only team playing in the Pacific Time Zone that has success on the opposite coast. If you take out San Diego (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS), who’s been a huge disappointment, the overall record for the four other clubs who play out west are 7-4 SU and 9-1-1 ATS.

Make a note that these outcomes on the East Coast aren’t just a coincidence. The five clubs out west have also done well at home against teams from the East, posting a 7-5 SU and 7-4-1 ATS mark, and that includes the Chargers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) too.

It’s certainly been a nice angle this season and it’s worked out well, but we always encourage bettors to do their homework for every matchup. With that being said, let’s fast forward to San Francisco’s primetime battle against Baltimore.

It doesn’t take a genius to understand that San Francisco has overachieved this season and even though Baltimore is 7-3, they’re still suspect. In June, Cantor Gaming released all of the NFL lines for every game and the number on this particular matchup was Baltimore minus 8 ½ points.

This past Sunday, Baltimore opened as a four-point favorite but the number has dipped to 3 ½ and 3 (-125) at most books.

A couple weeks ago I talked about the dangers of laying short wood (2.5 to 3.5) in a column. After 12 weeks, favorites with a closing number between 2 ½ and 3 ½ points are 26-18 SU and 18-23-3 ATS (44%). Digging into the numbers further, home favorites in the same range this season are 14-9 SU, but only 8-14-1 ATS (36%). The bottom line is to be careful with short favorites at home and if a team is laying a small price on the road, they’re doing so because they’re the better squad.

Numbers never lie, but if there is a team you want to back at home just to win, it’s Baltimore. The Ravens have been great under head coach John Harbaugh. During his tenure, he’s gone 24-5 at M&T Bank Stadium. What’s even more impressive, four of those five losses have been three points, the other by four. In case you’re wondering, the five setbacks came against AFC foes too, three times to Pittsburgh.

What about against the spread?

We reached out to handicapper Marc Lawrence for a quick answer. He replied “Harbaugh is 16-0 straight up and 13-3 ATS career record as a non-division home favorite, including 7-0 ATS when laying seven points or less.”

Kickoff is slated for 8:20 p.m. ET, with NFL Network

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:49 AM

Week 12 Preview: Dolphins at Cowboys



Kickoff: Thursday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 44

The Dolphins seek their fourth win in a row when they spend Thanksgiving in Dallas, winners of three straight.

Miami has three consecutive double-digit wins, beating its opponents by a hefty 86-20 margin during the win streak. And over the past two years, the Dolphins have played better football on the road than at home—they’re 8-5 ATS (62%) outside of Miami over the past two seasons. Dallas has a habit of playing down to its opponent, as evidenced by the team’s 3-12-1 ATS record (20%) as a favorite over the past two years. The pick here is MIAMI to cover the spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Dolphins:

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Miami has played nine straight games Under the total and this three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the UNDER on Thursday:

MIAMI is 38-13 UNDER (74.5%, +23.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 17.0, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 3*).

The Dolphins recent surge has much to do with QB Matt Moore making a number of big plays. He was 14-of-20 for 160 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in last week’s 35-8 trouncing of Buffalo. The Cowboys have used some creative defensive looks under first-year coordinator Rob Ryan, and they’ve managed to confuse opposing offenses on several occasions. But Miami has been balanced on offense, out-rushing three of their past four opponents with the duo of Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas. Bush has been able to rack up some huge gains in three career games versus Dallas, rushing for 8.4 yards per carry and adding nine catches for 154 yards (17.1 avg). Dolphins star WR Brandon Marshall had only one reception last week, but he expects to bounce back against a Dallas secondary still missing starting cornerback Mike Jenkins (hamstring).

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS the last five times they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving Day, and they have the offense to exploit a suspect Miami pass defense, even with their best receiver shelved in Miles Austin (hamstring). With their lack of quality depth in the secondary, the Dolphins will have trouble matching up against a multi-faceted Cowboys passing attack that saw five players catch at least three passes in last week’s overtime win in Washington. QB Tony Romo threw for 292 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT against the Redskins, giving him a 69% completion rate, 841 passing yards (280 YPG), 8 TD and 0 INT during the three-game win streak. Romo needs another big afternoon considering the Dolphins have been so stingy against the run, allowing just 276 yards (69 YPG) on 3.0 yards per carry in the past four games. DeMarco Murray is having a huge rookie season (747 rushing yards, 6.0 YPC), but was held to 73 yards on 25 carries (2.9 YPC) last week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:50 AM

Week 12 Preview: 49ers at Ravens



Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -3, Total: 38.5

The Harbaugh brothers will spend Thanksgiving together as John Harbaugh’s Ravens host Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers on Thursday night.

The Niners just keep paying out. They’re 9-0-1 ATS in 2011, and that in and of itself is a five-star FoxSheets Power Trend (average score has been San Francisco 25.6, Opponent 14.5). The Ravens, meanwhile, have repeatedly shown up unprepared, letting games slip away to Seattle and Jacksonville, and nearly getting upended by Arizona in Week 8 and Cincinnati last week. LB Ray Lewis (toe) may miss a second straight game, which would be bad news against the 49ers’ power running game. And San Francisco’s elite defense should have little trouble shutting down erratic QB Joe Flacco. Take underdog SAN FRANCISCO as the pick here.

The FoxSheets provide another trend steering bettors away from the Ravens:

Play Against - Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. (134-84 since 1983.) (61.5%, +41.6 units. Rating = 2*).

San Francisco makes no secret of the fact that they want to run, run, run, and the Ravens could be in for a long night with LB Ray Lewis (toe) questionable after having missed the game against the Bengals. The Ravens had held six straight opponents to less than four yards per carry, before Cincinnati was able to reach that mark on Sunday (119 yards on 30 carries). Niners RB Frank Gore has been bothered by a knee injury in the past two weeks, but he has been a beast on the road this year, averaging a hefty 6.3 yards per carry. Rookie backup Kendall Hunter has also been successful rushing the football with a strong 4.4 YPC average. If the 49ers have to throw the football, QB Alex Smith has proven he is capable, carrying a 93.9 QB rating (7th-best in NFL) with 13 TD and 4 INT. San Francisco takes great care of the football with a league-low-tying nine turnovers this season, and has posted a stellar +9 turnover margin in the past four games. However, Baltimore leads the AFC with 21 takeaways on defense.

The Ravens have been tough at home this year, and Flacco has been much more comfortable there (7.6 YPA at home, 5.9 YPA on road). He’s at least capable of making plays against a 49ers pass defense allowing 249 YPG (23rd in NFL). Rookie WR Torrey Smith (20.3 yards per reception) has really come on strong in the past few weeks, racking up a season-high 165 yards last Sunday against Cincinnati. And although the Niners lead the league in rushing defense (74 YPG), Baltimore RB Ray Rice remains one of the NFL’s most unique playmakers. Rice has a pedestrian 237 rushing yards in the past four weeks, but has scored six rushing TD and added another 176 yards receiving in this span. For the year, Rice has 1,176 total yards and 10 touchdowns.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:52 AM

Trending: NFL Thanksgiving betting

Thanksgiving Day gives us a great opportunity to spend time with family, enjoy a bountiful feast, indulge in a variety of desserts … and bet on NFL football. For decades, a pair of games featuring Dallas and Detroit satisfied our pigskin cravings. In 2006, we were given one more thing to be thankful for: a third NFL Thanksgiving Day game. These unique situations have produced some solid trends.

Dallas Thanksgiving Day games (2003-2010)
Dallas is 6-2 ATS (75%).
Dallas is 4-0 ATS vs. NFC teams, but 2-2 vs. AFC teams (Dallas hosts Miami this year. The Dolphins are 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving in this span, with SU wins over both Dallas and Detroit).

Dallas is 5-1 ATS (83%) as a favorite (They are favored by 7 this year).

Dallas is 4-1 Under (80%) in its past five Thanksgiving Day games.

Detroit Thanksgiving Day games (2003-2010)
Detroit has lost 7 straight both SU and ATS. The Lions’ last win both SU and ATS was against Green Bay in 2003 (They host Green Bay this year. The Packers are 2-1 ATS, all against Detroit, on Thanksgiving in this time period).
Detroit is 5-3 Under (63%).

”Bonus” Thanksgiving Day games (2006-2010)
Home teams are 4-1 ATS (80%).
Favorites are 4-1 ATS (80%).

While neither of the bonus game participants, Baltimore (Home) and San Francisco, have played on Thanksgiving since 2003, each has a small sample of Thursday games to examine:

Baltimore is 0-2 ATS in two Thursday games since 2003 (both on the road).

San Francisco is 2-1 ATS (67%) in three Thursday games since 2003.

San Francisco is 3-0 Under in these games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
11/24/2011 10:57 AM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/21/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
11/20/11 14-­8-­2 63.64% +­2600 Detail
11/17/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/14/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/13/11 13-­15-­0 46.43% -­1750 Detail
11/10/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
11/07/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
11/06/11 16-­10-­0 61.54% +­2500 Detail
Totals 46-­40-­2 53.49% +1000

Thursday, November 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Green Bay - 12:30 PM ET Green Bay -6 500

Detroit - Over 55.5 500

Miami - 4:15 PM ET Dallas -7 500

Dallas - Under 44.5 500

San Francisco - 8:20 PM ET Baltimore -3.5 500

Baltimore - Over 40 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: