cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
On 11/15/2011 08:20 PM in NFL

Cnotes Week # 11 NFL Best Bets 11/27-11/28 !

Deflated New York Jets At Denver Broncos Thursday Night Football

The New York Jets will be battling both physical and mental fatigue when they visit Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.

Week 11 NFL odds have already been posted at Don Best and New York is a 4 ½-point favorite. The total is still to be released and the NFL Network will have the broadcast from Sports Authority Field at Mile High at 8:20 p.m. (ET).

New York (5-4 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) didn’t get any scheduling breaks in this game, having a very short week of rest after hosting New England on Sunday night and having to battle the high altitude of the Rocky Mountains.

The aforementioned Patriots game was supposed to be a coronation for Rex Ryan and the Jets. The winner would have a stranglehold on the AFC East and that turned out to be New England with a 37-16 win as 2 ½-point closing ‘dogs.

Mark Sanchez has his share of the blame with two interceptions, including a pick-six and an ill-advised timeout in the first half that Ryan called the "stupidest thing in football history." However, the defeat was a team effort, including the defense and coaching staff, and Ryan needs to get his guys focused to go at least 5-2 down the stretch for a wild card.

The best way to rebound is get back to the ‘ground and pound’ rushing attack. The Jets only ran the ball 25 times last week, preferring to chuck it 39 times against the Pats’ worst-ranked pass defense that was also decimated with injuries.

Shonn Greene had some success with 61 yards on 13 carries, but that’s far below the 87.3 YPG and 20 carries he averaged in the three previous contests, wins over Miami (24-6), San Diego (27-21) and Buffalo (27-11). Greene could be carrying the full load with LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) injured last game, but he can handle the extra work.

Denver’s run defense is 16th in the NFL (117.6 YPG). One good thing about Sanchez is he has a short memory after bad games, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play well.

The Jets are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road, but they were tremendous in the last one at Buffalo, holding down a potent offense. The defense had some problems with New England’s no-huddle and that could be a tactic that Denver copies.

The Broncos are 4-5 SU (4-5 ATS) and miraculously only 1-game out in the AFC West. Tebow has fueled a surge by going 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) as a starter, all the wins on the road. Each victory by the former Heisman winner is more bizarre than the last, with yesterday’s 17-10 triumph at Kansas City done with just two completed passes and 69 passing yards.

Tebow has a decent 81.7 quarterback rating despite a 44.8 completion percentage and he does make big plays running and throwing at crucial times. The running game overall has been incredible the last two weeks at 271.5 YPG.

The problem Thursday is Willis McGahee (hamstring) is questionable and Knowshon Moreno (knee) doubtful. That could leave just third-string Lance Ball, although he did have 96 yards against the Chiefs on 30 attempts.

Offensive tackle Ryan Clady (leg) is also questionable and it’s hard to imagine Denver running very successfully against the Jets. That stop unit has stiffened on the ground the last four games, including allowing just 60 yards on 28 attempts versus New England.

Denver will have to fool the Jets with a variety of formations and Tebow will have to keep making big plays even if the overall numbers aren’t pretty.

The Broncos are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS at home. The one home start for Tebow was a 45-10 shellacking by Detroit when he struggled and was called the worst quarterback in the league by a Denver Post writer.

The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Denver’s home games with the defense allowing 29.8 PPG.

These teams last met last year at Mile High with New York getting a 24-20 comeback win as 3 ½-point favorites. Sanchez had 198 passing yards and two picks, while Kyle Orton was the Denver signal caller.

Weather could reach a high of 60 during the day, but the game should be played in the 40s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:21 PM

Slipping Detroit Lions Face Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Carolina is 3-0 straight up in the last three matchups with the Lions.
Both the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers were blown out in Week 10 action, and both will try to right the ship this week when they face off in NFL betting action at Ford Field. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with regional television coverage set for FOX.

The Lions (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) would be a Wild Card right now in the NFC, but all of a sudden, what once looked like a fairly comfortable lead over a herd of teams chasing them has disappeared. With two games still to play against the undefeated Green Bay Packers, it seems unlikely that this team does any better than 11-5 or 10-6, marks which might not be good enough to get into the postseason.

The good news in this one is that Detroit is going against one of the worst ranked rush defenses in the league. The bad news is that it doesn't have a running game to try to take advantage of that unless Jahvid Best can get over his concussion.

Best, who is used both as a rusher and a receiver in the short passing game, has been out for three straight games and it's unclear whether he will be back in the fold this Sunday. As a result of his absence, the rushing game only ranks No. 27 in the league at 93.6 YPG.

Matt Stafford has enjoyed a great season, but Sunday against the Chicago Bears was not his best effort. The former Georgia Bulldog was picked off a season-high four times, and two of those INTs were returned for touchdowns to further complicate a terrible performance.

The Panthers (2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS) prided themselves in sticking around in games this year early on. Their first five games were all decided by seven points or fewer, and came against a horrifying schedule that included three playoff teams from a season ago.

Last week though, the team put forth its second terrible effort in the past month with the Tennessee Titans coming into Charlotte and laying a 30-3 beating on Ron Rivera's squad.

Stopping opponents has been incredibly difficult this year for the Panthers. They rank No. 31 in the league in scoring at 26.3 PPG, and have allowed at least 30 points in five games this season. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars were held under 20.

On the bright side though, Cam Newton continues to rewrite the passing record books for rookies. He needs 395 passing yards to reach 3,000 for the campaign, and he is just 1,175 yards shy of breaking Peyton Manning's record for passing yards by in a rookie season.

The Panthers and Lions have only met five times in their histories, and the games have been quite interesting to say the least. Carolina has won each of the last three games SU, but Detroit has covered all three spreads. The all-time series edge goes to the Panthers 4-1 SU, but to the Lions 4-1 ATS.

Three of the five meetings have eclipsed the total.

Though they haven't played well of late, the Lions have been lined as seven-point favorites. The total is set at 48½ at the open in this game, one of the few games with a total in the high-40s in Week 11.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:23 PM

Injuries Top NFL Betting News In Week 10

Another interesting week of NFL betting action is in the books, and we're set to take a look back at the week that was on the pro gridiron.

It was a week for road teams for sure, as 10 of the 16 found ways to win games outright. Visitors were only favored in four games in Week 10, and the Baltimore Ravens lost outright to the Seattle Seahawks.

It was also a week for the 'dogs to bark in a big time way. Underdogs and favorites each went 8-8 ATS over the course of the weekend, but all eight also won outright.

The biggest of the upsets came in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Philadelphia Eagles probably watched their season end. They were bounced by the Arizona Cardinals, who came to town as 13½-point underdogs. The loss marked the fourth time this year in which Philly blew a fourth quarter lead, and it was the fourth time this year at home in which the Eagles lost a game outright as favorites of nine points or greater.

The Eagles definitely aren't the only team struggling that was expected to be in the playoffs this year. The San Diego Chargers lost their fourth game in a row when they were bounced 24-17 by the Oakland Raiders, while the Baltimore Ravens dropped out of first place in the AFC North with a 22-17 loss at the Seattle Seahawks.

The Green Bay Packers continued their march towards perfection on Monday with a 45-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The biggest win of the week in the NFC though, belonged to the San Francisco 49ers, who trumped the New York Giants 27-20 in Week 10 to move to 8-1 and two up in the loss column for a first round bye in the NFC playoffs.

The earlier games tended to fall on the side of 'under' bettors. Including Thursday's Oakland/San Diego contest, the games that started before 4:00 p.m. (ET) on Sunday ended with an 8-3 mark towards the 'under.' From that point on though, all five games exceeded the total, and the Chicago Bears, New England Patriots plus the aforementioned Packers scored at least 37 points.

The Dallas Cowboys were the highest scoring team of the week, dropping 44 on the Buffalo Bills in a comfortable victory in Irving.

Injuries mounted in Week 10 that could change the course of the rest of the season. Michael Vick has broken ribs that he suffered against Arizona, and could be in danger of missing this week's game against the Giants. The biggest quarterback injury though, came to the Houston Texans who lost Matt Schaub due to a foot injury that is reportedly going to keep him out for the rest of the season.

Houston will benefit from a bye this week, giving backup Matt Leinart more time to get comfortable directing the Texans offense before they go to Jacksonville in Week 12.

The Denver Broncos only threw eight passes in the entire game in a win against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last week, completing just two of them. It was amazing that the guests were able to win with that mindset, especially since Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno were both injured.

Moreno tore his ACL and is out for the season, while McGahee has a hamstring injury and is questionable for the Thursday nighter this week against the New York Jets.

Matt Cassel also left that game hurt for the Chiefs, and could be out for the season according to head coach Todd Haley. Cassel is at least expected to miss next Monday's trip to New England with what is being called a "significant hand injury."

San Francisco running back Frank Gore didn't have a single yard on six carries, marking the first time in his career that he was held without a rushing yard in a game in which he played. It is unknown whether his ankle injury will cost him any time or not.

This week, the highlight game is the duel between the Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals hung around with the Pittsburgh Steelers last week at home, but weren't able to finish the deal and lost by a touchdown. The winner of this one will join the idle Steelers atop the AFC North at 7-3, while the loser will be clawing for a Wild Card spot at 6-4.

There are six divisional matchups on tap this weekend, most notably the Sunday Night Football battle between the Eagles and Giants, though there will be a lot of emphasis on the Dallas/Washington duel in the NFC East as well on Sunday.

The Chargers will likely put their season on the line in the Windy City against the suddenly surging Chicago Bears, while the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons lock horns in one of just the two battles over the course of the week pitting teams above .500 against each other.

On Monday Night Football, the Chiefs will face the New England Patriots. This is the first game since Scott Pioli left New England for Kansas City, and also marks the return of Romeo Crennel to Foxboro. The last time these two teams met, Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury the year after the not-so-perfect 18-1 season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:24 PM

Jaguars Face Browns In A Defensive Struggle

The ’under’ has cashed in eight of Jacksonville’s nine games this year.
For the second week in a row, two of the lowest scoring offenses in the National Football League will face off in an AFC matchup. Week 11 finds the Cleveland Browns (3-6) hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. (ET). Coverage will be handled by CBS.

There was a fairly major shift in the line for this matchup as the Browns opened at -1½ and the Jags now a 1-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen. The total is a very low 35½.

Jacksonville no longer holds the crown for the lowest scoring team in the league, for now. However, the Jaguars are still ranked No. 31 (12.8 points per game) and the Browns are No. 29 (14.6 ppg). In terms of total yards, Cleveland is No. 30 and the Jaguars are last by about 30 yards per game.

The bad news for Cleveland is that there is no silver lining on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Colt McCoy has taken a step back at least in the perception of his play from last year. Statistically, he has improved in some areas while getting worse in others.

Although the Browns offense played decently a week ago, injuries at running back to Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty have hindered this team. Hopes are that RB Chris Ogbonnaya can continue what he started with a nice game this past Sunday. If not for a botched snap on a 22-yard field goal toward the end of the game, the Browns may have beaten the Rams.

This week’s visiting team does have a bright spot in running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the 4th-leading rusher in the NFL. While he is a star in the league, MJD is still underrated as he is one of the best at his position and has to carry the worst passing attack in football every single week.

For those wondering about the progress of rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, there hasn’t really been much. He makes impressive throws at times but also makes mistakes. On the plus side, he is not very prone to turnovers so far in his short career. Furthermore, his entire corps of receivers does not help him at all.

Enough about offense; the Jaguars and Browns have the No. 4 and No. 6 defenses in the NFL, respectively. It will be a case of weakness versus strength on Sunday as the Browns have the No. 1 passing ‘D’ but are only No. 30 in defending the run.

With the exception of the game against Houston (and that is a ‘maybe’), the Jags ‘D’ has played well enough to win every single game this season. While there is no Troy Polamalu or Clay Matthews game-breaking type player in Jacksonville, several players are responsible making this one of the best units in the league.

One blow to this defense is Jacksonville’s franchise leader in interceptions, cornerback Rashean Mathis, has been lost for the year after tearing his ACL against the Colts. Also put on injured reserve this week was offensive lineman Eben Britton.

In nine games played this season, the Jaguars have gone ‘under’ the total eight times.

Early weather reports suggest temperatures in the 50s with a chance of rain on Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:28 PM

Week 10 Recap

November 15, 2011

Hard-Luck Texans will Challenge Bettors' Faith with Leinart

The Houston Texans finally looked like they were on the right path. The only NFL franchise that hasn't made an appearance in the playoffs hammered Tampa Bay, 37-9, on Sunday, moving to 7-3 on the season, good for first place in the AFC South.

Then came Monday, when the Texans announced that quarterback Matt Schaub would be out indefinitely with a "significant" injury to his right foot, an injury that will likely end his season. Houston has a bye in Week 11, but Matt Leinart has already been named the starter for the Nov. 27 game in Jacksonville.

From a wagering perspective, the Texans have been gold for many of our bettors, especially of late. We booked almost 80 percent of the action in the Houston-Jacksonville game on the Texans (-4).



I'll be curious to see how bettors respond to Schaub's absence. Leinart's post-USC career never got off the ground in Arizona, but perhaps this is the opportunity he's been waiting for.

"He's played in big football games in this league, he's played in big football games in college," Texans coach Mike Kubiak said of Leinart. "Matt's been around it. The key is the whole team rallying around him, and playing well as a team. Matt doesn't have to go win a game, the team has to go win a game. We'll rally around him and get him ready to go."

The Texans have been playing great defense and have one of the league's best running games, so it's not like Leinart will have to go out and do it all himself. That said, he'll still have to make some throws to prove he can do it, otherwise the opposition can just focus on stopping the run.

Another big betting outcome from Week 10 was the Ravens-Seahawks game in Seattle. The 'Hawks went in as 7-point home underdogs, but won it outright, 22-17, after Baltimore turned the ball over three times.

Bettors took it on the chin with almost 90 percent of the action coming in on the Ravens, a team that was coming off a huge win in Pittsburgh the week before. Combine that emotional victory and a trip across the country and you get the recipe for a letdown.

"We understand that we are going to be a target of a lot of criticism right now. We understand that. We understand that it's going to be local; it's going to be national," Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said. "We understand the fans are very disappointed in the game. We're very disappointed in the game. We had an opportunity here to do something to separate ourselves a little bit in our division and we didn't finish."

For the Seahawks, the win was their second big upset of the season, the first one coming on the road over the Giants in Week 5. Seattle moved to 3-1 against the spread at CenturyLink Field, one of the loudest stadiums in the league.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:31 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 11

November 15, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 17 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

NYJ: 6-3 ATS L9 away favorite
NYJ: 10-5 ATS L15 away vs non-division
DEN: 2-5 ATS L7 home underdog
DEN: 1-4 ATS L5 off away win

Sunday, Nov. 20 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

BUF: 3-7 ATS L10 vs division
BUF: 7-3 'under' L10 vs MIA
MIA: 2-6 ATS L8 vs division
MIA: 4-12 ATS L16 home favorite

CIN: 16-8 ATS L24 underdog
CIN: 5-1 ATS L6 off division game
BAL: 1-5 ATS L6 home vs division
BAL: 6-2-1 ATS L9 off NFC game

JAX: 2-5 ATS L7 away
JAX: 6-3 ATS L9 off ATS win
CLE: 1-4 ATS L5 off home loss
CLE: 1-6-2 ATS L9 home vs non-division

OAK: 4-1 ATS L5 vs non-division
OAK: 4-8 ATS L12 vs NFC
MIN: 4-1 ATS L5 off division game
MIN: 3-6 ATS L9 vs AFC

CAR: 4-1 ATS L5 off loss
CAR: 2-5 ATS L7 away vs non-division
DET: 5-2 ATS L7 home favorite
DET: 7-1 ATS L8 off division game

TAM: 6-2 ATS L8 off home loss
TAM: 7-1 ATS L8 away vs non-division
GBP: 11-2 ATS L13 overall
GBP: 2-4 ATS L6 off home win

DAL: 2-6 ATS L8 vs division
DAL: 3-5 ATS L8 off home win
WSH: 2-5-1 ATS L8 home
WSH: 6-3 ATS L9 vs division

Sunday, Nov. 20 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

ARZ: 2-6 ATS L8 vs division
ARZ: 0-5 ATS L5 vs SFO
SFO: 7-2-1 ATS L10 home
SFO: 9-4 ATS L13 vs division

SEA: 8-3 ATS L11 vs division
SEA: 3-18-1 ATS L22 away underdog
STL: 8-3 ATS L11 off win
STL: 2-5 ATS L7 home

Sunday, Nov. 20 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

TEN: 8-2-1 ATS L11 vs NFC
TEN: 8-3 ATS L11 off away win
ATL: 13-8 ATS L21 home
ATL: 8-2 ATS L10 vs AFC

SDG: 2-4-1 ATS L7 vs NFC
SDG: 5-1 ATS L6 off home loss
CHI: 5-2 ATS L7 home vs AFC
CHI: 7-4 ATS L11 home

Sunday, Nov. 20 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
PHI: 4-6 ATS L10 away
PHI: 2-6 ATS L8 off home loss
NYG: 3-5 ATS L8 vs division
NYG: 2-6 ATS L8 off away loss

Monday, Nov. 21 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

KC: 8-3 ATS L11 away underdog
KC: 1-5 ATS L6 off home loss
NE: 1-4 ATS L5 home vs non-division
NE: 5-2-1 ATS L8 off division game

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:33 PM

Week 11 Preview: Jets at Broncos



Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4.5, Total: 41

The Jets know they must quickly forget Sunday night’s 37-16 crushing defeat to New England, as they have a short week to get ready for a Denver team on the rise.

The Jets have been complaining about this game for weeks, as they play a Thursday night game two time zones away after a Sunday night home game. They also have to prepare for a unique Broncos offense featuring Tim Tebow and a lot of zone option read plays, something most defenders haven’t seen since college. Tebow hasn’t been great, but he has made some huge plays in leading his team to three wins in four starts. Although RB Knowshon Moreno (torn ACL) is out and RB Willis McGahee (hamstring) is questionable, the Broncos still have enough depth at running back to move the football against New York’s mediocre run-stop unit (116 YPG, 15th in NFL). The Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS versus the Jets since 1992 and are eager to avenge last year’s home loss to New York when a questionable pass interference call on fourth down with under two minutes left sustained the Jets’ eventual game-winning drive. The pick here is DENVER to cover, and possibly win outright.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Broncos.

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (N.Y. JETS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (74-34 since 1983.) (68.5%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also provide a five-star trend expecting the game to finish OVER the total.

Rex Ryan is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of N.Y. JETS. The average score was N.Y. JETS 25.6, OPPONENT 20.6 - (Rating = 5*).

In last year’s 24-20 win in Denver, LaDainian Tomlinson scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns, helping the Jets overcome three turnovers on offense. For his career, Tomlinson has averaged 103 total YPG with 22 TD in 19 career games versus Denver. Mark Sanchez threw 2 INT in the win over the Broncos, and also threw a pair of picks in last week’s loss to New England. Expect New York to run the football more on Sunday, as its rushing offense has been much better lately. The Jets have averaged 133 YPG on 4.2 yards per carry in the past three games after just 81 YPG on 3.3 YPC in the first six games of the year. The Broncos are an average run defense (118 YPG, 16th in NFL), but could be missing leading tackler LB Wesley Woodyard for a second straight week with a knee injury.

The Broncos recent surge has put them just one game out of first place in the AFC West. Tebow completed only 2-of-8 passes in last week’s win over K.C., which lowered his completion rate to an anemic 44.8% this season. But he does have an excellent 7 TD-to-1 INT ratio and has rushed for 320 yards on 6.7 YPC. If McGahee can’t go, Lance Ball, who got the heavy workload (30 carries, 96 yards) last week, will likely get the bulk of the carries again. Tebow could also see more running plays called for him. WR Eric Decker has seven touchdowns this season, scoring in three straight games. But Jets All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis, who has consistently shut down top receivers all season, will likely cover Decker on Sunday, making him a non-factor in the offense.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:35 PM

Week 11 Preview: Titans at Falcons



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -6, Total: 44

After a tough overtime loss to New Orleans, Atlanta continues its three-game homestand against a Tennessee team coming off a 30-3 blowout win at Carolina.

The Titans run defense will once again be tested, this time against RB Michael Turner and Atlanta’s power running game. Tennessee has allowed 155 YPG and 5.2 YPC over its past five games, and may have given up more to Carolina had the Panthers not been forced to go pass-heavy while playing from behind. However, the Falcons run-stop unit will also have their hands full with a resurgent Chris Johnson, who busted out for 130 rushing yards last week. Only four teams have attempted 25 carries against Atlanta this year, gaining 120 YPG on 4.1 YPC in those four games, so the Falcons can certainly be run on when the game plan calls for it. Also, the Titans have won five straight (4-0-1 ATS) in this series and are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games as underdogs. The pick here is TENNESSEE to cover.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also back the Titans.

TENNESSEE is 37-16 ATS (69.8%, +19.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992. The average score was TENNESSEE 25.6, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Play On - Road teams (TENNESSEE) - after playing their last game on the road, in November games. (61-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Johnson has now strung together two strong performances in a row, totaling 194 rushing yards (4.7 YPC) and 90 receiving yards on eight catches in his past two games. QB Matt Hasselbeck has been very consistent in his first year with Tennessee, throwing for 248 passing YPG, 14 TD and 7 INT. He should be able to throw against the league’s 23rd-ranked pass defense (254 YPG), and post numbers similar to what he’s done in five career games against Atlanta: 67.2% completion rate, 95.2 QB rating, 6 TD, 3 INT, 7.54 YPA. His best receiver, Nate Washington, has been slowed by a hip injury recently, which has forced Hasselbeck to rely more on Damian Williams. The second-year WR out of USC caught five passes for 107 yards and a touchdowns versus Carolina last week.

Atlanta is coming off a heartbreaking defeat, outgaining New Orleans 481-363. The Falcons had 52 pass attempts versus just 32 runs against the Saints’ soft run defense in that game, and they need to get back to pounding the football with Turner. Especially since they have run the ball with success of late, averaging 4.7 YPC over the past four weeks. WR Julio Jones injured his hamstring last week and is questionable for Sunday, which could allow Harry Douglas to have another huge performance like he did against New Orleans, catching eight passes for 133 yards. Roddy White, who averaged 87 receiving YPG last year, has failed to gain 80 yards in a game for six straight weeks.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:37 PM

Week 11 Preview: Bengals at Ravens



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -7, Total: 40.5

Cincinnati will play the second of four straight divisional games when it travels to Baltimore on Sunday.

Last week, the Ravens looked bad in a 22-17 loss to a 2-6 Seattle team, while the Bengals played pretty well, but also fell to Pittsburgh. This marked their first defeat since late September, ending a five-game win streak (SU and ATS). This will be the most difficult game yet for rookie QB Andy Dalton, who has been a solid game manager but has been forced into some mistakes, including two crucial interceptions in the loss to the Steelers. However, Dalton could be the better signal caller in this matchup, as Ravens QB Joe Flacco has a 62.3 QB rating (5.97 YPA, 4 TD, 9 INT) in six career games against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s three losses this season have come by 7, 5 and 2 points, and the team is currently riding a four-game ATS win streak (3-1 SU) over Baltimore, improving to 10-3 ATS in the past 13 meetings of this series. The pick here is CINCINNATI to keep the final margin under a touchdown.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also support the Bengals.

John Harbaugh is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 15.1, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 2*).

CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (88.9%, +6.9 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 21.1, OPPONENT 20.8 - (Rating = 1*).

Baltimore keeps getting tripped up on the road, but the Ravens have gotten it done at home. They nearly let a game slip away at home against Arizona in Week 8, but they’ve also beaten the Steelers, Jets and Texans by a combined score of 98-38. Baltimore has allowed just 240.5 total YPG of offense in M&T Bank Stadium this season.

Flacco has thrown zero touchdowns in his past three home games despite 115 attempts, giving more reason for the Ravens to try to establish the run on Sunday. Star RB Ray Rice carried the ball only five times against Seattle, and has a meager 161 rushing yards in his past four games (398 in first five games). That doesn’t bode well against a Cincinnati club that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year (87 YPG). Rice has been able to get his yards through the air though, catching 46 passes this season for 470 yards. He has enjoyed facing the Bengals in his career, gaining 610 total yards and 3 TD in six games against them.

Dalton (14 TD, 9 INT this year) was without his top receiver, A.J. Green, for most of the game against Pittsburgh because of a knee injury, but Green is expected to start on Sunday. Cincinnati will try to pound the football with bruising RB Cedric Benson. He certainly hasn’t dominated the Ravens in his career (3.3 YPC), but has rushed for a strong 368 yards in the past four meetings, including a pair of 100-yard efforts in 2009. Baltimore currently ranks third in the NFL in rushing defense (90 YPG) and sixth against the pass (194 YPG), so Benson will be needed to eat up clock and tire out Baltimore’s talented defense.

Although the Bengals have consistently stopped the run all year, they have allowed 274 passing YPG in the past three weeks. This number could go up as they will be playing without starting CB Leon Hall, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Pittsburgh.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33166 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:39 PM

Week 11 Preview: Chargers at Bears



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -3.5, Total: 46.5

The Chargers are winless since Oct. 9, and the drought could worsen on the road against a Bears team riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS.

Although San Diego has lost four straight games, it got an extra three days of rest after a Thursday night defeat to Oakland. The Bears pass rush should be able to pressure QB Philip Rivers who is playing behind an o-line that could be without LT Marcus McNeill (neck). However, Chicago’s defense could be missing three starters when the game kicks off Sunday afternoon, including its best pass rusher in DE Julius Peppers (six sacks). Peppers has a leg injury, joining LB Lance Briggs (arm) and DT Matt Toeaina (knee) in the questionable category. Although San Diego has lost four straight games, all of those defeats were by seven points or less. And considering the Bears rank 29th in passing defense (270 YPG), Rivers certainly has the ability to pile up the yardage and lead the Bolts to a season-turning win. The play here is SAN DIEGO against the spread.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also side with the Chargers.

CHICAGO is 3-16 ATS (15.8%, -14.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 18.4, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*).

SAN DIEGO is 35-15 ATS (70.0%, +18.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.7, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*).

San Diego has been hurt by a weak ground game (89.5 rush YPG) and turnovers (11) and during the four-game skid. Rivers leads the NFL with 15 INT, but he has also thrown for 305 YPG, the fourth-most yards in the league. The key to this offense will be top WR Vincent Jackson, who only caught one of the seven passes thrown his way last week. TE Antonio Gates is getting close to 100 percent after foot injury, catching 22 passes for 277 yards and 2 TD in the past four games. RB Ryan Mathews (groin) is also getting healthy, and needs more work based on his 4.6 YPC average this year.

Despite putting up 37 points in last week’s win over Detroit, the Chicago offense still struggled, gaining a mere 216 total yards. Although the Bears rank sixth in scoring (26.3 PPG), they are in the bottom half of the league in total yards (328 YPG). Despite the win streak, Jay Cutler hasn’t been stellar in his past three games, completing just 53% of his passes with 3 TD and 2 INT. The Bears defense has been opportunistic recently with 12 takeaways in the past three games. They returned two interceptions for scores last week and Devin Hester brought back a punt to the house. Hester is tied for the team lead with four touchdowns, three coming on returns. Chicago is 4-1 (SU and ATS) in the five meetings between these clubs since 1993, but the Chargers won the last meeting in 2007, by a 14-3 score.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: