cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:40 PM

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season
29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) off an upset win as a home underdog, in the second half of the season
143-54 since 1997. ( 72.6% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the second half of the season
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:43 PM

NFL odds: Week 11 opening line report

When Lovie Smith said “the Chicago Bears shouldn’t be eight-point underdogs” and that his players “took notice of that,” it was eye-opening.

Gambling, as we all know, drives the NFL’s popularity. It’s just that coaches and league officials rarely admit it.

Smith’s statement -- before Chicago’s 30-24 win in Philly on Monday Night Football -- wasn’t only refreshing. It was true.

The surging Bears have covered their last four games, all wins, by an average of 17.3 points. Only San Francisco (7-0 ATS run) is hotter against the spread.

Jay Cutler has been sacked just twice in the past two games and hasn’t cursed out coordinator Mike Martz lately, that we know of.

He’s thrown six TDs and two INTs since Week 4 as the Bears emphasize the running game. Right tackle Lance Louis has been a godsend.

It’s possible the rekindling of Cutler’s romance with Kristin Cavillari (“The Hills”) helped too.

Smith revamped his defense, demoting safeties Brandon Meriweather and Chris Harris. Now the unit is making big plays instead of giving them up.

Devin Hester returned his 12th punt for a touchdown Sunday, adding to his NFL record. The Bears are 13-3 when Hester takes a punt or kickoff all the way back.

While the Bears always will be a public team, they’ve been overshadowed this season, first by Detroit’s Cinderella start, then by the Packers’ quest for perfection.

Only the NFL schedule conspired to keep bettors from jumping on the bandwagon Sunday.

“The only reason we didn’t get a whole bunch more money on the Bears was the short week,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker for Lucky’s sportsbook. The Bears were coming off a Monday night game, while the Lions were coming off a bye.

In Week 11, books expect major money to pour in on the Bears. They’re opening Chicago as -3.5 or -4 over the reeling Chargers. San Diego has lost four in a row straight up and against the spread.

“San Diego has not done much lately and Chicago is on fire and at home, so I imagine they’ll be betting Chicago,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback said. “They seem to be taking over Detroit’s role as the pointspread darling the last few weeks.”

The Bears “modified their offense a little,” he added. “They’re protecting Cutler more and going to the running game.”

The Chargers are a mess but usually finish strong. They’re 8-6-1 as road dogs under coach Norv Turner.

Even though it seems the Monsters of the Midway are back, two Covers Experts provided valuable perspective.

“Chicago’s offense and defense takes a back seat statistically to San Diego’s on both sides of the ball, and they are coming off a critical division win,” pro handicapper Marc Lawrence said. “Thus, the linesmakers still respect the Chargers.”

Lawrence dug into his historical database to come up with this nugget: Since 1986, NFL teams off exactly four wins are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when hosting a foe off exactly four losses.

Covers Expert David Malinsky said the Bears are good,“but not good enough to maintain this pace. We do like the fact that they are using Matt Forte more and bringing some common sense to their offensive packages, and this will particularly matter down the stretch.

“But this looks like a case of a team that is playing as well as they possibly can, and we know that when that happens it just becomes a matter of time before some of those pendulums begin to swing back the other way.

“They could be another team that we look to fade in the very near future.”


Kansas City at New England (-14, 50), Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-13, 49)

Matt Cassel needs hand surgery and won’t play Monday night, but it’s unclear if Tyler Palko represents a downgrade at QB. That’s how bad the Chiefs’ offense has looked. The Pats are back on track, but some fear a letdown after a huge division win.

The Bucs are on a 1-5 ATS skid (2-4 SU). They rank 31st in total defense, not a formula for success in Lambeau.


Buffalo at Miami (-1, 43), Oakland at Minnesota (-1, 44), Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1, 36), Seattle at St. Louis (-1, 37.5)

The Dolphins and Bills are headed in opposite directions. Miami has covered three straight (2-1 SU), while Buffalo is coming off back-to-back embarrassments.

Is it too late to pull back the six-year, $59 million extension with $24 million guaranteed the Bills just gave Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Three of the last four Seahawks-Rams games have stayed under.


Kansas City at New England (-14, 50), Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-13, 49)

Tom Brady looked beyond his two primary receivers Sunday night, targeting Deion Branch nine times, Aaron Hernandez five times, Danny Woodhead three times and Chad Ochocinco twice.

The Pats are almost a given to score in the 30s, and their defense could score too. The question is whether Palko (4 of 5, 47 yards in relief Sunday) can lead K.C. to a touchdown or two.


Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1, 35.5), Seattle at St. Louis (-1, 37.5)

Cleveland hasn’t scored a touchdown at home in two-plus games, 123 minutes to be exact. The total for Jaguars-Browns already has dropped a full point.

Covers associate editor Ashton Grewal notes Jags’ totals have averaged 39.6, more than a touchdown higher than the actual points scored: 31.2.

He also points out Jacksonville ranks second in the NFL in 1st downs allowed per game (16.2) and fourth in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.9).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:48 PM

Best and worst bets in the NFL after 10 weeks

Okay, we’re past the midway point of the season so we should have a decent feel for league. At least we think we do until the Ravens play an NFC West team.

There are still a few trends oddsmakers can’t seem to balance out. Here’s a quick look at some of the surprising team total and spread statistics after the first 10 weeks.


San Francisco 49ers: 8-0-1 ATS

Jim Harbaugh's love for covering the spread didn’t desert him after leaving his college gig. The 49ers have failed to cover only once and that game ended in an overtime loss. Not too bad.

SF leads the league in average offensive drive starting field position (own 33) and average opponent starting position (24-yard line). They also have created 21 takeaways and are an NFL best +13 in turnover differential. (That stat pack is courtesy of ESPN’s John Buccigross. He’s worth a follow on Twitter for all the number nerds out there).

The books will raise the price on backing San Fran moving forward. The club has five games left against weak divisional opponents (St. Louis, Seattle and Arizona) which are sure to bring on double-digit spreads.


Indianapolis Colts: 2-8 ATS

Everyone knew Peyton Manning was an all-time great quarterback but no one thought the Colts would be this bad without No. 18 under center.

Indy is averaging just 6.75 points per game over its last four contests, down from its season average of 13.1. That means, as crazy as it sounds, the Colts are actually getting worse.

They’ve dropped six straight against the number.


Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills: 7-2 O/U

This is probably a case of each offense being a little bit better than expected and defensive takeaways coming into play. The Ravens average the 11th most passing yards per game, the Bengals are 11th in red zone efficiency and the Bills are third in rushing yards per carry (5.2).


Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins: 1-8 O/U

Miami’s offense is a modest one, even after the club’s current two-game win streak, and we knew its defense was going to wake up at some point.

The Jaguars stopping unit is the headliner here. Jack Del Rio’s men are second in the NFL in 1st downs allowed per game (16.2), eighth in opponent yards per carry (4.0) and fourth in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.9).

The average total in a Jacksonville game this season: 39.6. The average total points scored in Jags games: 31.2. That’s a touchdown difference and something you don’t see too often from oddsmakers with a nine-game sample size.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/15/2011 08:51 PM

Top 5 NFL Trends

WAS Under is 8-0 in WAS last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

MIA Under is 8-0 in MIA last 8 games overall.

SF SF are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

SF SF are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

SF SF are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:12 PM

Titans And Seahawks Lead Week 11 Dog Pound

Season-long spread results in the NFL continue to be almost evenly split between favorites and underdogs, with the chalk holding a slim 72-71 edge heading into this week’s action.

As only the Dog Pound can do, we look for a few special dogs with extra bark to recommend this week.

NY Jets at Denver (+6, Thursday night)
Denver continues to confound the experts, running a Florida Gator-like "read option" for QB Tim Tebow that has resulted in unlikely back-to-back road wins at Oakland and Kansas City, rocketing the Broncos to number two in NFL rush stats and into the mix in the jumbled AFC West. Jets coach Rex Ryan’s defense has leaked a bit more than he would like, and Mark Sanchez continues to blow hot and cold at QB. Denver hasn’t covered its first four home games this season and its RB corps is depleted, but the storyline is becoming quite compelling in the Mile High City. That cannot please the anti-Tebow crowd.

Tennessee (+6) at Atlanta
Chris Johnson looks like he is finally back into his old groove for the Titans, rushing for a season-best 130 yards last week at Carolina. We’re not sure, however, if the Tennessee defense can confound Atlanta QB Matt Ryan and the refined Falcon offense as it did when assigning a spy to Cam Newton a week ago. We know the Falcons are angry after their overtime loss to the Saints, and we doubt coach Mike Smith gambles on any more 4th-&-1 calls deep in his territory this week.

Buffalo (+2) at Miami
The Bills look like a spent force, their defense crumbling in the wake of injuries to NT Kyle Williams and LB Shawne Merriman. Now the offense is taking some lumps with key wideout Steve Johnson nursing a shoulder injury. Foes have been flummoxing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick the past few weeks, flooding their secondaries with as many as six DBs to negate the Bills’ "five-wide" looks. Miami is on the ascent and was never as bad as it looked in the first six weeks of the season. Note no TDs allowed by the ‘Fins defense the past two weeks, and QB Matt Moore is getting comfy at the controls of the offense. Not sure we trust the Bills at the moment.

Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore
As we expected, the Ravens had problems last week at Seattle, considering the post-Steelers hangover and cross-country travel. Home-cooking has worked much better for Baltimore this season, 4-0 straight up and 3-1 vs. the line at M&T Bank Stadium, while outscoring foes 32-16. Cincy, however, continues to stare back at the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North with a solid Marvin Lewis defense and maturing rookie QB Andy Dalton. The schedule, however, is beginning to get much tougher for the Bengals.

Jacksonville (+1) at Cleveland
There isn’t much (if any) cushion from the oddsmakers if you want to support the Jags this week. But if you do, be comforted by the fact the host Browns have only covered two of their last 17 games and have lost nine straight against the line at home, with the only straight-up success a 1-point win over the Dolphins. J’ville’s stop unit is the best platoon on the field, and the Cleveland offense is the worst platoon on the field. Therein lies the recommendation, wherever the oddsmakers post this number.

Oakland at Minnesota (+1)
This price moved against Minnesota after the Vikes were shellacked by the Packers on Monday night. Previously, we were a bit excited about the prospects of perhaps getting the Raiders, who have covered all four of their road games this season, plus a few points. Dynamics are now a bit different, but if backing Minnesota, remember that rookie QB Christian Ponder, despite some encouraging performances, is still on the NFL learning curve and making just his fourth career start.

Carolina (+7) at Detroit
The Lions are wobbling and their fans cannot be comforted about an upcoming schedule that gets a lot harder after the Panthers visit this Sunday. Detroit had also better locate a ground game fast or else QB Matthew Stafford (63 passes last week at Chicago) might have his arm fall off before Christmas. Also check Stafford’s possible hand injury, although many believe the Lions will not lose much at this stage if they go to vet backup Shaun Hill. Let’s see if the Lions go to school on what Tennessee did to fluster Newton last week, assigning a spy to keep Cam in the pocket and limiting his ability to improvise. Still, the Lions look unreliable at the moment.

Tampa Bay (+14) at Green Bay
This sort of "tall cotton" always intrigues but we’re not sure about bucking a Green Bay side that has won its last 15 games and covered 12 of those. Bucs QB Josh Freeman continues to endure something of a "junior slump" as Tampa Bay fades from contention in the NFC South.

Dallas at Washington (+7½)
Any takers for the Redskins? Five losses on the trot and a wretched, injury-plagued offense that can’t punch its way out of a paper bag makes Washington a tough sell at the moment. And Mike Shanahan must be very desperate if he was forced to go back to Rex Grossman at QB over John Beck. Dallas has not been a reliable proposition as chalk lately but the Cdowbiys are stirring with a couple of lopsided wins in their last three outings. Tony Romo’s ribs are healed and Oklahoma rookie RB DeMarco Murray has been a revelation. Again, any takers for Washington?

Arizona (+9½) at San Francisco
One of these weeks the 49ers will not cover a pointspread. For nine games, however, Jim Harbaugh’s team has yet to lose a spread decision. The Cards are beginning to think that 2nd-year John Skelton might be a better alternative than Kevin Kolb at QB. If bucking the Niners, consider that recent spread success and determine if you want to fly into the teeth of that wind.

Seattle (+2) at St. Louis
The Rams have only won twice all season so a case can certainly be made for Pete Carroll’s emerging Seattle side that has actually covered five of its last six games on the board. Tarvaris Jackson is also beginning to look like a real NFL quarterback. Not the worst dog to look at on this week’s card, though the price is short.

San Diego (+3½) at Chicago
Along with Green Bay, the Bears are the hottest team at the moment in the NFC with four straight wins and covers. The ability to establish RB Matt Forte on the ground has taken the pressure off of QB Jay Cutler, and the Chicago "D" has stopped allowing big plays since Lovie Smith made personnel adjustments last month. A case can still be made for a desperate and still-capable San Diego side, but the Bolts are on a 4-game losing streak, and coach Norv Turner is reportedly on very thin ice.

Philadelphia (+4½) at NY Giants
The Birds continue to flounder and we’re not even sure about Mike Vick’s status this week after injuries suffered a week ago. But Andy Reid has won at the Meadowlands before – remember last eyar’s rally at the new stadium, and DeSean Jackson’s punt return TD on the final play? – and Eli Manning is always prone to go walkabout when least expected.

Kansas City (+14½) at New England
More tall cotton to get wagerers interested. If liking that big number with Kansas City, however, remember that QB Matt Cassel is out with a hand injury, and Tyler Palko will be largely responsible for your investment this week. A lot of familiarity with the front office and staffs between these sides, but when has Bill Belichick ever demonstrated mercy to old friends?

Top underdog recommendations this week: Tennessee, Cincinnati, Carolina, Seattle.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:14 PM

Dallas Cowboys Favored On Road At Redskins

Mention of the Cowboys and Redskins recalls some of the more-familiar names in pro football over the last half century. Meredith. Jurgensen. Staubach. Kilmer. Dorsett. Riggins. Theismann. Aikman. Not to mention what has often been one of the NFL’s most-colorful rivalries over the past several decades.

It’s too bad that Sunday’s matchup at FedEx Field is unlikely to recall any of that past glory.

Blame fading Washington (3-6 straight up and against the spread) more than Dallas (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) for that downgrade heading into this weekend’s matchup just off of Exit 16 on the Beltway. The Don Best odds screen lists the Cowboys as a 7 ½-point or 8-point favorite at Las Vegas wagering outlets, with the total holding steady at 41½.

Kickoff time off the Beltway will be at 1:00 p.m. (Eastern), with FOX providing the TV coverage. Marv’s son Kenny Albert, along with Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa, will provide the commentary.

Certainly, Washington and Dallas have been involved in several memorable games over the decades, beginning not long after the Cowboys entered the league as an expansion franchise in 1960. When Dallas ascended to contender status in the middle of the decade, the rivalry really began to heat up with a series of pitched confrontations and white-knuckle finishes.

In the Cowboys’ breakthrough year of 1966, they were involved in a pair of thrillers vs. Otto Graham’s Redskins, including a wild 31-30 win at D.C. Stadium where Don Meredith and Sonny Jurgensen combined for nearly 800 passing yards, while home run receivers Bob Hayes (9 catches for 246 yards, including a 95-yard TD bomb) and Charley Taylor (11 catches for 199 yards) waged their own personal stat war.

Dallas was in serious trouble until the final moments before a Danny Villanueva field goal gave it the 1-point win.

The 'Skins, however, kicked Dallas right back, 34-31, in the penultimate week of that ’66 regular season, delaying Dallas’ chance to sew up the old NFL Eastern Conference crown. Washington knocked Meredith out of the game and ended up prevailing in that see-saw affair thanks to a late Charlie Gogolak field goal.

One of the best Redskins-Cowboys games from the ’60s came the following year at D.C. Stadium, after the teams were placed (along with the Eagles and expansion Saints) in the newly-named Capitol Division of the Eastern Conference. Dallas was again in serious trouble deep into the fourth quarter after Jurgensen and Taylor had combined for a TD pass to put the Skins up by a 14-10 count. In the final moments, however, Meredith hooked up with Dan Reeves, looping out of the backfield, for a dramatic 36-yard TD pass and game-winner in a pulsating 17-14 Dallas victory.

The series really heated up, however, in the early ‘70s, after George Allen arrived in Washington to resurrect the Skins in 1971. One of Allen’s first signature wins in ‘71 for his "Over the Hill Gang" was an early-season 20-16 win over Dallas at the old Cotton Bowl, a few weeks before Texas Stadium opened.

Coaches Allen and Tom Landry elevated 'Skins and Cowboys into must-see TV in those days, including Washington’s 26-3 win at RFK Stadium in the ‘72 NFC title game. The teams had played another riveting regular-season contest at RFK earlier that campaign, when Jurgensen had come off the bench to rally Washington to a 24-20 win. Similarly, a Monday night game at RFK in ‘73 produced a memorable finish, when smallish Redskins DB Ken Houston somehow corralled rugged Dallas FB Walt Garrison at the 1-yard line to preserve a 14-7 Washington win.

The teams have sparred continuously in the decades since, meeting once more in an NFC title game in the lockout-shortened ’82 season, Washington winning again 31-17. And even their first meeting this season provided some thrills with Dallas rallying late for an 18-16 win thanks to six field goals by PK Dan Bailey back on September 26 at Arlington.

But late September seems like a long time ago for the 'Skins, who fell on hard times shortly thereafter. Injuries to key offensive cogs such as RB Tim Hightower and WR Santana Moss have helped to mute the Washington offense, but it’s doubtful even Skins haters could have dreamed about such a meltdown on the attack end.

Consider that Mike Shanahan’s offense has only scored four TDs in its last five games, all Redskins defeats. Washington hasn’t scored a TD in the first half of its last four games, and just one pre-fourth quarter TD in its last five outings. Shanahan’s "O" is also scoring a paltry 10.6 ppg in its last five outings.

Shanahan’s preseason gamble on QBs John Beck and Rex Grossman looks to be boomeranging spectacularly. Grossman, who was pulled after a 4-pick performance back on October 16 vs. the Eagles, was back in the starting lineup last week at Miami after Beck failed to ignite the offense the previous three weeks. Beck’s lack of patience and poise in the pocket prompted The Shan to make the switch back to Grossman last week, but results didn’t improve in the 20-9 loss to the Dolphins. Grossman’s decision-making again came into question, throwing an ill-advised pick deep in Miami territory and later taking a crucial sack in the fourth quarter to push Washington out of field goal range when a three-pointer would have cut the deficit to 13-12.

All of these offensive shortcomings have undermined a defense that has performed consistently in its base 3-4 looks and other variations for coordinator Jim Haslett.

Meanwhile, Dallas seems to be headed in the opposite direction after a pair of wins that included last week’s 44-7 bombardment of Buffalo. Getting QB Tony Romo healthy and beyond the injured ribs that impacted him in the first six weeks of the season has been a plus. The emergence of Oklahoma rookie RB DeMarco Murray, gaining a whopping 6.7 ypc and providing more consistency that former starter Felix Jones, has been another plus, with Murray’s abilities as a receiver providing an extra bonus. As has Laurent Robinson blossoming as a dangerous wideout threat and softening the blow of Miles Austin’s injuries; Robinson is gaining better than 16 yards per catch on his 27 receptions.

A look at the upcoming schedule also gives Cowboys fans a reason for encouragement. This game is followed by a pair vs. beatable Miami and Arizona, so there’s a good chance that Dallas will be sitting at 8-4 heading into the home stretch, with two battles still remaining vs. the current NFC East frontrunner, the Giants, in the last four games.

Recent series pointspread trends, however, have favored the 'Skins, who have covered the last four meetings. Note that five of the last six in this NFC East rivalry have gone ‘under’ as well.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:16 PM

New York Giants Host Underachieving Eagles

The news for the Philadelphia Eagles appears to be going from bad to worse as they head into an NFC East clash at the New York Giants on Sunday night.

Philadelphia ranges from 3-4 ½ point underdogs at Don Best with the total 47-47 ½ points. NBC will have its normal coverage at 8:20 p.m. (ET) from MetLife Stadium.

The Eagles (3-6 straight up and against the spread) are getting a lot of respect at these odds. After all, they’re coming off home losses to Chicago (30-24) and Arizona (21-17) as nine and 13 ½-point favorites respectively. Quarterback Michael Vick also suffered broken ribs last week and is questionable at best for this week.

Talent has never been the issue for the Eagles. That’s why the Don Best Linemakers Poll had them ranked ninth before last week (94.9), right behind the Giants at eighth (95.4). The updated version will be out later today.

Andy Reid has done a poor job coaching, but the players have also vastly underachieved as one of the preseason Super Bowl favorites. There is a question whether they’ll give maximum effort going forward with the playoffs almost out of reach.

Vince Young will get the start if Vick can’t play. Ironically, it was his labeling the Eagles a ‘dream team’ before the season that brought national ridicule. He has plenty of NFL starts under his belt, but they all came with Tennessee and he only has one pass attempt this year after signing as a free agent.

The 28-year-old Young is not an accurate passer (57.9 completion percentage lifetime), but does have mobility in the pocket which will come in handy against the Giants' top-ranked pass rush (30 sacks).

Whoever is playing quarterback needs a productive DeSean Jackson, who should return after a 1-game suspension. Receiver Jeremy Maclin also has shoulder and hamstring injuries and is listed as questionable.

Philadelphia is 2-2 SU and ATS on the road this year, last winning 20-13 at Washington back on October 16. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in its road games this year and 9-1 in the last 10 away dating back to last year.

The Giants (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) finally ran out of fourth-quarter magic last week with a 27-20 loss at San Francisco as 4-point underdogs. They actually won the total yardage battle (395-305) and time of possession (34.5-25.5 minutes), but it wasn’t enough.

Running back Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) has missed the last two games and is questionable for Sunday. Brandon Jacobs and D.J. Ware have done a decent job filling in and the Eagles can be run on at 120 YPG (ranked 17th).

Eli Manning had two picks last week, but is playing well with his plethora of weapons in receivers Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, plus tight end Jake Ballard. Nicks and Cruz were among several Giants at a nightclub when a shooting occurred, but are said to be completely uninvolved and no suspensions are forthcoming.

Defensively, the Giants will have little fear if Young is the quarterback and can gang up on dangerous running back LeSean McCoy (906 yards). They could be without starting linebacker Michael Boley (doubtful, hamstring) and cornerback Aaron Ross (questionable, upper body), but have done a great job overcoming injuries all season.

The Giants are 3-1 SU at home this year, but just 1-2-1 ATS and the cover came in the first game against St. Louis. They ended October with 3-straight at MetLife Stadium and were fortunate to beat Miami (20-17) and Buffalo (27-24), while losing to Seattle (36-25) as double-digit favorites.

New York is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall as a home favorite.

These teams met back in September with New York winning 29-16 as a big 9-point road ‘dog. Manning led a comeback with two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, which helped fuel Philly’s season downfall. Vick got injured in the final stanza and was replaced by Mike Kafka.

Philadelphia has enjoyed great recent success on New York's turf, going 4-0 SU and ATS including the miraculous 38-31 win last year after 28 unanswered points in the final 7:28. Jackson had a 65-yard punt return on the game’s final play and this would be a good time for revenge.

Big Apple weather should be fine in the nighttime air with temperatures starting in the 50s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:19 PM

NFC West Clash Finds Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has covered the last five meetings with the Cardinals.
The San Francisco 49ers are continuing their march this week towards the NFC West title when they engage in NFL betting action at home against the Arizona Cardinals.

This duel is one of the 4:05 p.m. (ET) kickoffs in Week 11, and action from Candlestick Park can be seen regionally on FOX Sports.

If the Cardinals (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) have any chance of stopping San Francisco in the NFC West, this is a game Arizona has to win. Should the 49ers win this game and the Seattle Seahawks lose to the St. Louis Rams, San Fran will have a whopping six-game lead in the division race with just six to play, making it conceivable to lock up a playoff bid before the leftovers from Thanksgiving dinner are finished.

That being said, we aren't ones to count out the Cards. They went on the road last week and beat the Philadelphia Eagles 21-17 with a late rally 21-17, and have played relatively well on the road all season long. Save for a bad loss at the Minnesota Vikings, the team's other four road games have all been close affairs.

There might be some quarterback controversy in the desert. John Skelton has now led the team to back-to-back victories, and his numbers are comparable to those of Kevin Kolb who started the first seven games of the season with the Cardinals going 1-6.

Kolb is still banged up with a foot injury that will likely keep him from playing in this one anyway, but it would be hard for Ken Whisenhunt to take Skelton out of the lineup if he were to win this game.

Meanwhile, the 49ers (8-1 SU, 8-0-1 ATS) just continue to pile it on the rest of this division. They beat the New York Giants last week here at Candlestick Park 27-20, and haven't lost a game since Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys. We tend to forget that this team was a late collapse against Dallas away from also being a 9-0 team, just like the Green Bay Packers.

San Francisco has succeeded because of its defense. This unit came up with the big red zone stop last week with less than two minutes to play against the Giants to preserve the victory, which is nothing new. The Niners rank No. 1 in the league in red zone scoring, and that's why they have the top scoring defense overall at just 15.3 PPG.

The only question is how healthy Frank Gore really is for this one. Gore injured his leg on Sunday and ended the day with no yards rushing on six carries. He still has 782 yards on the ground on the campaign and is one of the best backs in the league, but he has a great back behind him as well in Kendall Hunter.

Hunter had 40 rushing yards and a TD in the second half with Gore out of the lineup to help beat the Giants.

The Niners have won four in a row in this series and have covered five straight. Last year's games weren't even remotely close, as San Francisco won 38-7 at home and 27-6 on the road.

The road team is still 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry, while the underdogs are 7-3 ATS in the last 10.

San Francisco opened up this week at -10, but it has since dropped to -9½. The total has dipped a half point as well to 41½ as of Wednesday afternoon.

Mother Nature could play a role in this one, with a 70 percent chance of rain in the forecast for the Bay Area. Temperatures should be cool in the 50s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:20 PM

Rested Raiders Ready For Minnesota Vikings

The Oakland Raiders hope to hold on to their lead in the AFC West and take another step towards their first playoff berth since 2002 with a win on the road this Sunday over the Minnesota Vikings.

Oakland is currently a 1-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s game will start at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on CBS.

One interesting factor in this game is the extra time that Oakland has had to rest and prepare for it. Because the Raiders played San Diego last Thursday night and the Vikings played Green Bay on Monday night, the Raiders have had an extra four days between their last game and this one. This extra rest could help negate the stress of traveling across the country for this game.

Oakland (5-4) pulled off an emotional win over San Diego last Thursday night, holding on to a 24-17 lead as a 7-point underdog to take sole possession of first place in the AFC West. With the win, Oakland broke a two-game losing streak and improved to 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS on the season.

There were plenty of positives to take away from that game. Carson Palmer looked like his old self, passing for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Michael Bush had 242 yards from scrimmage (157 rushing and 85 receiving), marking the fourth highest amount in team history and proving that he can hold down the fort until the injured Darren McFadden returns.

The other side of the ball found the Black and Silver defense holding San Diego’s potent attack to just 314 total yards and 17 points, racking up six sacks along the way.

With Darren McFadden doubtful again this week, Palmer and Bush will need to have strong games again in his absence. Can the Raiders build on the San Diego win, or will they revert back to the form in which they lost the previous two games?

Minnesota (2-7) was completely outclassed on both sides of the ball in a 45-7 loss on the road against Green Bay last week, but that can happen against the NFL’s best team. The Vikings had no answer for Aaron Rodgers, who finished 23-for-30 with 250 yards and four touchdowns. Minnesota fell to 4-4-1 ATS with the loss.

The key to upsetting Oakland this week for Minnesota will be the running game. Going up against Oakland’s weak rushing defense (25th in the league with 132.4 rushing yards per game against), Adrian Peterson should have a big day. If Minnesota’s stout rushing defense (6th in the league with 93.9 rushing yards against) can contain Bush, the Vikings should have a shot at picking up their third win of the season.

Oakland is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road this season. Dating back to last season, Minnesota is 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 in its last six games at home.

The total for Sunday’s game is currently set at 45½. The total has gone ‘under’ in five of the Raiders’ last six games, but has gone ‘over’ in four of the Vikings’ last five games at home.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:23 PM

Bengals, Ravens In Crucial AFC North Showdown

The Cincinnati Bengals will be playing their second of four consecutive divisional games on Sunday when they visit the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals (6-3) are coming off a tough 24-17 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in their biggest AFC North matchup to date and now face the inconsistent Ravens (6-3), who have covered the spread only once over the past month.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS.

Baltimore opened as a 9-point home favorite according to the Don Best odds screen, but early betting action on Cincinnati has already moved the line down to -7 with the total sitting between 40 and 41.

The Bengals did get some good news following their loss to the Steelers when they found out star rookie wide receiver A.J. Green should be able to play against the Ravens. Green hyperextended his right knee on a 36-yard touchdown catch from fellow rookie Andy Dalton in the second quarter and did not return after halftime.

Dalton was able to lead Cincinnati on one touchdown drive in the third quarter against Pittsburgh, but the offense definitely struggled without Green on the field the rest of the way. Both rookies will have another challenge this week against a Ravens team that has played to the level of their competition so far this season.

Baltimore seemingly took control of the division by completing a sweep of the Steelers two weeks ago with a 23-20 victory, but a 22-17 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday put Pittsburgh back on top in the AFC North. The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter and 22-7 in the third, and simply could not battle back while playing in a hostile environment.

The Bengals have had Baltimore’s number though over the past two seasons, winning three of the four meetings straight up and covering the spread as underdogs in all of them. The ‘under’ has also cashed in each of those four meetings along with six of the past seven.

Cincinnati was 7-1 ATS in its previous eight games before losing to the Steelers and had covered nine in a row against AFC opponents. The Ravens have been heading in the opposite direction, failing to cover three of their past four since they beat the Houston Texans 29-14 at home on October 16. They were favored by seven points or more in all three of those games that they did not cover.

The weather forecast for Baltimore on Sunday calls for a possibility of occasional showers with a high temperature of 67.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: