cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:45 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Wednesday's games

Only second meeting since '06 between Western Michigan/Miami; this is Broncos' first visit here since 2001. Western won 48-26/27-24 last two series meetings. Broncos lost three of last four games; they scored 63 in last game but still lost- they're 1-5 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 24-3-29-4 points. Five of last six Western games, six of last nine Miami games went over the total. Miami won/covered last three home games, winning by 7-28-32 points. Broncos allowed an average of 334.5 rushing yards in their last four games. Miami is 4-8-1 in its last 13 games as a home favorite. Western is 6-10-1 as a road underdog.

Ohio won three of its last four games against Bowling Green, winning by 24-7-11 points; Bobcats won last two visits here, 44-27/38-27. Falcons lost five of last six games, scoring 13-15-14 points in last three- they've lost three of last four home games, are 4-6 as home dog under Clawson. Ohio won/covered last three games, scoring 37-35-43 points; they're 5-2 in last seven games as road favorite, 3-1 this year. Four of Bobcats' last five games went over the total. Bowling Green is just 8-42 on 3rd down in last three games; they've got only three takeaways in last six games. Bobcats have 761 rushing yards in their last three games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:47 PM


Wednesday, November 16

Wednesday night MACtion: What bettors need to know

Ohio at Bowling Green (+7, 57.5), 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Ohio’s 49-25 beat down of Bowling Green last year was way worse that the score indicated.

Favored by nine, the Bobcats out-gained the Falcons 239-89 in the first half and led 28-3 at intermission.

A year has gone by, but Ohio is the more talented team this year and will bring an extremely balanced attack that is averaging 33 points. The Bobcats (7-3, 5-5 ATS) have won three straight, including Thursday’s 43-28 win at Central Michigan.

In contrast, Bowling Green (4-6, 5-5 ATS) has lost two straight by an average margin of 20.5 points. The Falcons were no match for Northern Illinois and surrendered 623 total yards to the Huskies on Tuesday.

Ohio has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games in November under coach Frank Solich.


Ohio opened as a 7-point favorite at the Las Vegas Wynn on Sunday, but the number had dropped under the key number and was hanging around 6.5 as of Tuesday evening.

The total opened at 57.5 Tuesday and was holding steady.


Forecasts call for rain throughout the afternoon, but it is expected to stop by kickoff. Wind shouldn’t be much a factor.


Bowling Green starting corner Jeffery Garrett, who missed the Northern Illinois game, is listed as questionable with a hamstring.

Ohio is reporting no recent impactful injuries.


Bowling Green has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings with Ohio.

The Over is 9-1 in Ohio’s last 10 games in November.

Heading into Tuesday night’s Ball State-Northern Illinois games, the seven MAC games played in November had averaged

Western Michigan at Miami (OH) (-2, 58.5), 8 p.m., ESPN2

Pass-happy offenses collide, when one-dimensional Miami (OH) hosts Western Michigan in a MAC showdown between two teams fighting for bowl eligibility.

The RedHawks (4-6, 6-4 ATS), led by junior quarterback Zac Dysert, own the 20th-ranked pass offense, but also the 120th-ranked ground attack, which averages a puny 80 yards per game.

The Broncos (5-5, 6-4 ATS) aren’t much more balanced. Behind quarterback Alex Carder, WMU has the best passing offense in the MAC, averaging 333 yards through the air. But they’re 8th in the conference in rushing.

Western Michigan has played a decidedly tougher schedule. The RedHawks’ have the 118th-ranked strength of schedule; The Broncos are 60th.


The RedHawks opened as 1-point favorites at the Wynn on Sunday. The early money was on the home team, driving the line to -2, where it opened at most books.

Miami has performed well when facing teams with similar talent, covering the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite of three or less.

The total opened at 58.5.


The two teams did not play last year. Western Michigan handled Miami, 48-28, as a 15.5-point favorite in 2009 and has won the last two meetings.


Neither team is reporting any recent impactful injuries.


It will be chilly with temperatures in the 30s, but no precipitation or significant wind is forecast.


Under is 4-1 in RedHawks last five games in November and 5-2 in Western Michigan’s last seven games in November.

Western Michigan is 5-22-1 straight-up all-time in Oxford, Ohio.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:49 PM

Virginia Tech aims for 6th straight win Thursday


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Virginia Tech -10.5, Total: 47

No. 8 Virginia Tech goes for its sixth straight win when it hosts North Carolina on Thursday night. The Hokies now control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal Division, leading Virginia by one game with two games left on the schedule. Virginia and Virginia Tech meet next week in what could determine the division champion.

The Hokies were impressive in beating then-No. 20 Georgia Tech last Thursday, 37-26, but that was just their second ATS win over an FBS school this year (2-7 ATS). UNC had a terrible day at NC State in its last game on Nov. 5, losing 13-0 and watching starting QB Bryn Renner get knocked out of the game with a concussion. But the bye week gave Renner time to recover and he will start on Thursday night. And history shows that the Tar Heels are usually able to get their offense back on track after a low scoring game, going 13-2 ATS (87%) after playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored, since 1992. And the last time UNC visited Blacksburg in 2009 as a 14.5-point underdog, not only did the Heels cover, but they also won the game outright, 20-17. Don’t expect them to pull out another SU victory against the surging Hokies, but NORTH CAROLINA is the pick to win ATS.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Tar Heels.

Play Against - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). (26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Renner leads the ACC and ranks seventh in the nation in passing efficiency (164.70), thanks mostly to completing 71.4% of his passes. His last game was the first time he had failed to throw a touchdown pass all year, totaling 19 TD and 11 INT on the year. Senior WR Dwight Jones has been his go-to receiver, gaining 80+ yards in eight of 10 games this year and totaling 63 catches for 913 yards and 8 TD. Jones has been kept out of the end zone in three straight games though. Freshman RB Giovani Bernard has 1,012 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 11 TD, but has been limited to 91 yards on 29 carries (3.1 YPC) in his past two road games.

Defensively, UNC has been strong in stopping the run (108 YPG, 18th in nation), but has struggled in the passing game (248 YPG, 90th in nation). The Heels have a brutal turnover margin of minus-8 in their past three defeats.

Although Carolina won its last trip to Blacksburg, the Hokies prevailed in each of the other six meetings (4-2 ATS) as ACC foes. Tech RB David Wilson rushed for 175 yards in last week’s win at Georgia Tech and now leads the nation with 1,360 yards on the season. He is riding a streak of seven consecutive games of gaining at least 120 rushing yards. Junior QB Logan Thomas has also played outstanding football during the five-game win streak, throwing for 1,257 yards (251 YPG), 10 TD and 2 INT. Thomas has orchestrated five straight 400-yard performances for this offense.

Despite allowing 26 points and 243 rushing yards to Georgia Tech, the Hokies still rank eighth in the country in scoring defense (16.5 PPG) and 11th in total defense (303 YPG). A big part of this success has come from the relentless front four. Virginia Tech, despite numerous key injuries, ranks fifth in the nation in sacks, tallying 3.2 per game. That’s not good news for UNC and Renner, who has been sacked 22 times this year, including 14 times in the past five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:52 PM

Oklahoma State seeks 11th straight road win Friday


Kickoff: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -26.5, Total: 66.5

No. 2 Oklahoma State looks to stay unbeaten heading into next week’s showdown with Oklahoma, when it travels to Ames, IA for a Friday night matchup with Iowa State on senior night.

OSU keeps rolling, pummeling Texas Tech 66-6 in Lubbock last week for its 10th straight road win. QB Brandon Weeden has 23 TD (11 to Justin Blackmon) and 3 INT in Big 12 play. After allowing 42.8 PPG during a four-game losing skid, Iowa State has allowed a total of 17 points during a two-game win streak, and the team is fresh coming off a bye week. However, the last three times Oklahoma State was favored over ISU, the Cowboys won big each game: 36-7, 59-17 and 34-8 in 2009. OSU is 8-2 ATS this year and is outscoring opponents by a healthy 25.4 PPG margin. This includes a whopping 24.0 PPG on the road. Iowa State will put forth a great effort, but its inability to both rush the passer (94th in FBS in sacks) and stop the run (203 YPG, 104th in nation) will allow the OSU offensive juggernaut to post another 50-point game. The pick here is OKLAHOMA STATE to win and cover the beefed-up spread.

This pair of rare five-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Cowboys.

Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OKLAHOMA STATE) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games, with an experienced QB returning as starter. (37-7 since 1992.) (84.1%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*).

OKLAHOMA STATE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 43.1, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 5*).

This OSU offense is just incredible, ranking second in FBS in scoring (51.7 PPG) and third in total offense (565 YPG). Weeden (364 passing YPG) and Blackmon (14 rec. TD, T-1st in nation) have been outstanding for two seasons now, but another key to this brilliant offense has been sophomore RB Joseph Randle. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and has scored 12 of his 23 touchdowns in the past four games. Despite the eye-popping numbers, the Cowboys are very smart and disciplined in their attack, leading the nation in turnover margin at +18.

To be fair, this +18 number has more to do with a talented, playmaking defense with 34 takeaways (19 INT, 15 fumble recoveries), which is six more than any other team in the country. Senior DL Jamie Blatnick leads the front four with a team-high seven sacks, while LB James Thomas and DB Broderick Brown each have four interceptions.

The Cyclones have shown their resolve with two straight victories on the heels of four straight losses to start the Big 12 slate. The biggest reason for the turnaround has been dual-threat freshman QB Jared Barnett who has racked up 536 total yards (319 passing, 217 rushing) during the two victories. Although he’s only thrown two picks in his 100 pass attempts this year, Barnett still needs to improve his accuracy (49% completion rate). RB James White leads the team with 618 rushing yards and 7 TD, but he has only two games of 65+ rushing yards all season (148 at Baylor and 138 at Texas Tech).

Despite the defensive improvement the past two games, Iowa State still ranks 91st in total defense (420 YPG) and 81st in scoring (29.8 PPG). On the positive side, the Cyclones rank second in the conference in passing defense, allowing just 217 YPG in the pass-happy Big 12. Turnovers have killed this team all year, as only 10 FBS teams have a worse turnover rate than the -0.89 per game the Cyclones have tallied (15 takeaways, 23 giveaways).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/16/2011 07:54 PM

No. 16 Nebraska visits No. 18 Michigan


Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan -3.5, Total: 51

No. 16 Nebraska travels to the Big House to face No. 18 Michigan in a key game to help determine the Legends Division representative in this year’s inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

Both of these teams are 8-2, but Michigan has played a much softer conference schedule (Purdue, Iowa, Illinois) than Nebraska has (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State). Playing in opposing stadiums doesn’t faze the battle-tested Huskers, who are 15-7 ATS (68%) on the road since 2008. And even with Michigan’s win at struggling Illinois last week, the Wolverines are still 2-12 ATS in the second half of the season since 2009. The pick here is NEBRASKA to win and cover in Ann Arbor.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also support the Huskers.

MICHIGAN is 5-17 ATS (22.7%, -13.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN 28.2, OPPONENT 31.1 - (Rating = 2*).

NEBRASKA is 8-1 ATS (88.9%, +6.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEBRASKA 28.5, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 1*).

This game features two teams that love to run the football, as Michigan ranks 11th in the nation with 236 rushing YPG and Nebraska isn’t far behind at 13th (233 YPG). Both QBs have struggled in the passing game as the Huskers’ Taylor Martinez has thrown 10 TD and 7 INT, while Wolverines QB Denard Robinson has tossed 13 TD and 13 INT.

Nebraska star RB Rex Burkhead tweaked his ankle in last week’s win at Penn State, but is expected to start against Michigan. Burkhead ranks third in the Big Ten in rushing (107 YPG) and is second in the conference with 16 touchdowns. Michigan has a decent run defense (131 YPG, 41st in nation), but the Wolverines were especially stingy last week in holding Illinois to 37 yards on 33 carries.

Michigan QB Denard Robinson has fizzled down the stretch, averaging just 192 total YPG in his past four contests. To put this number in perspective, Robinson averaged 329 total YPG last year. He’s also dealing with a sprained wrist that forced him to miss most of the second half against Illinois. However, head coach Brady Hoke said that Robinson has been throwing fine in practice and the injury won’t be a factor in Saturday’s game. Robinson’s yardage decline can also be attributed to the spike in play for junior RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, who has rushed for 420 yards on 6.7 YPC with four total touchdowns in the past three weeks.

Michigan is better served trying to run the football with Toussaint and Robinson, considering the Huskers are average against the run (161 YPG, 66th in FBS) and strong in pass defense (191 YPG, 21st in nation). Nebraska has also had trouble entering opposing backfields, ranking 117th in the country in Tackles For Loss (3.9 per game).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/17/2011 07:01 PM

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 12

Southern Miss Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 62.5)

Why Southern Miss will cover: USM is 7-1 ATS in its last eight, and UAB is outmatched in every phase, ranking in the bottom 25 in every defensive category.

Why UAB will cover: The Blazers may not win, but they can come close enough, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight. A passing game that ranks 54th has kept them around.

Points: USM should score big, and UAB is a good catch-up team.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)

Why North Carolina will cover: The Hokies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Virginia Tech likes to run, and UNC is 18th nationally at stopping it. The offense is good enough to keep the team in the game.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The defense has stifled better offenses and the Hokies average 226 yards passing and 207 yards rushing, putting a lot of pressure on a mediocre UNC unit. Plus, who’s going to go against the Hokies at home, at night?

Points: The over has hit in three of UNC’s last four and is 3-1-1 for VT lately.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+26.5, 66)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: The Cowboys are on a roll ATS, 8-1 in their last nine. The offense, which ranks No. 2 in scoring and passing, has overwhelmed everyone, and ISU isn’t particularly great at stopping it. The Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in its last eight Big 12 games.

Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones can run the ball, averaging 183 ypg. Keeping OSU’s offense off the field is critical.

Points: Despite the high-scoring offense, the under has been the trend for OSU games, as well as ISU.

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-28.5, 53)

Why Indiana will cover: Michigan State prefers to throw more than run and Indiana, if it has a strength, it’s pass defense.

Why Michigan State will cover: MSU ranks 12th or higher in every defensive category, so it’s a mystery how the Hoosiers will get into the end zone. The Spartans offense has scored 28 or more four of the last five weeks.

Points: The over has hit in IU’s last five and in three of MSU’s last four.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 50.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers are 12th in rushing and the defense has improved by leaps and bounds lately.

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines, meanwhile, are 13th in rushing. But unlike Nebraska (66th), Michigan is adept at also stopping the ground game, ranking 36th.

Points: The under is 6-2 when Michigan has been a favorite and has hit four straight for both teams. There’s going to be a lot of running the rock.

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini (+14, 52)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers control their own Big Ten destiny, and appear back on track after a two-week hiccup. They rank No. 4 in scoring (46.5 ppg) and No. 6 in scoring defense (15.8 ppg). They do half that well and they’ll cover.

Why Illinois will cover: The Illini has been solid at slowing down opponent rushing attacks. If they can do it and get their own ground attack going, anything can happen.

Points: The over has hit in six of the last eight meetings, though the under has hit in Illinois’ last four.

Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs (-30.5, 48)

Why Kentucky will cover: The Wildcats must win their final two games to become bowl eligible. They should at least give it their all. The defense is good enough to hang around.

Why Georgia will cover: Georgia should stifle UK’s offense in every way and its own balanced offense may simply be too much. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall and as favorites.

Points: The under is 5-2 in UGA’s last seven but the over is 4-1 in UK’s last five.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils (+10.5, 55)

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Duke can only move the ball through the air, and GT’s defensive strength is slowing the pass (16th). Duke’s depth isn’t conducive to Tech’s punishing run attack.

Why Duke will cover: Four of Duke’s seven losses have come by 10 points or less. The team passes a lot.

Points: The under is 10-2-1 in Duke’s last 13 and hit in four straight for GT before last week’s over (by 1.5 points).

SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars (-19.5, 77.5)

Why SMU will cover: While not as explosive as Houston, SMU can throw the ball (18th in passing) and has the potential to erupt.

Why Houston will cover: Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five despite spreads of 24 or more the last four. The Cougars score fast and often and don’t let up.

Points: Houston has scored 56 or more four straight games, and SMU can do its part when it’s on.

Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+7.5, 52.5)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers have the firepower on offense to run away from the Wolfpack. And once they get a lead, their 20th-ranked pass defense will do the rest.

Why North Carolina State will cover: Clemson lost and barely won in its last two games after the strong start; perhaps NC State found a chink that can help keep the game close. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, for what it’s worth.

Points: The under is 4-0 in NC State last four.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 39)

Why Penn State will cover: All distractions aside, the Lions’ defense stills ranks No. 3 in scoring (12.9 ppg) and No. 5 against the pass (167.7 ypg).

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes had won three in a row before last week’s debacle at Purdue. Still, OSU appears on the way up, and Penn State certainly does not.

Points: Both teams struggle mightily on offense, but that number is pretty low. The over has hit in OSU’s last three.

Colorado State Rams at TCU Horned Frogs (-33, 58)

Why Colorado State will cover: While the Rams haven’t been great, they’ve been in all but one game this season (Boise St.).

Why TCU will cover: TCU is 23rd in rushing (208 ypg), while CSU is 113th at stopping it. CSU is 2-9 ATS in its last 11.

Points: The over is 8-2 in TCU’s last 10, and is unlikely to be slowed on this day.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (-13, 53.5)

Why Mississippi State will cover: MSU’s defense is a solid 14th against the pass, matching up with Arkansas’ offensive strength. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four.

Why Arkansas will cover: The Razorbacks’ offense has run around the competition lately, and the team is 4-2 ATS in its last six. An underrated defense ranks 30th in points allowed, and MSU struggles to score anyway.

Points: The under is 6-2 in MSU’s last eight, but the over is 6-2 in Arkansas’ last eight.

Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-24.5, 47.5)

Why Boston College will cover: The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. B.C. will try to run the ball, shortening the game.

Why Notre Dame will cover: Notre Dame has no major strengths, but no major weaknesses, either. Boston College’s defense is ordinary, but the offense has been unproductive. Notre Dame faced similar spreads in two of its last three games, and covered both.

Points: The under is 5-0-1 in B.C.’s last six, and Notre Dame’s defense has improved of late.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+28.5, 46.5)

Why LSU will cover: Ole Miss has given up on the season and its coach, who has resigned effective at the end of the season. It’s hard to imagine the Rebels’ anemic offense scoring on the Tigers’ second-ranked defense.

Why Mississippi will cover: Maybe LSU comes in bored. Or maybe the Rebels’ new QB and RB – the usual starters are suspended – provide some spark.

Points: The under has been hitting for both teams of late.

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles (-17, 47)

Why Virginia will cover: The Cavs have covered in four of their last five, led by a ground game that milks the clock and a defense that’s allowed 13-21 points in five of the last six.

Why Florida State will cover: The Seminoles’ strengths — pass offense, run defense — match up perfectly with Virginia’s weaknesses — pass defense, run offense.

Points: The under is 7-1 in Virginia’s last eight, 3-0 in FSU’s last three and 8-0 in the last eight meetings.

Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs (+18.5, 55.5)

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos have something to prove after the last-second loss to TCU. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six.

Why San Diego State will cover: Boise State is faltering, 0-3 ATS in its last three. And the Aztecs do average 190 rushing and 218 passing per game.

Points: Boise State is due to for another breakout, and the over is 5-0 in its last five. SDSU can score, too.

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks (-15.5, 67)

Why USC will cover: USC is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on the road, and while Oregon’s run offense is great (fifth), USC’s run defense (eighth) is also strong. The Trojans’ passing game has the potential to overpower anyone.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS, including last week’s beatdown of Stanford. USC’s pass defense is 100th, and Oregon’s offense will prevent the Trojans from focusing on one thing.

Points: It could be an entertaining shootout.

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+15.5, 75)

Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma’s offense is just as powerful, and more balanced, than Baylor’s, and the defense is light years better. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor’s passing offense is sixth nationally (357 ypg), while OU is 71st at stopping it. The Bears are just 1-3 on the road, but undefeated at home.

Points: Both teams should struggle to stop the other. The over is 6-1-1 for Baylor and 5-2 in OU’s last seven.

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-9.5, 53.5)

Why Kansas State will cover: No ranked team has been more disrespected by the pollsters than K-State, but the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine. The team can run the ball (22nd) and stop the run (26th), and it’s worked.

Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns are even better at running the ball (15th) and stopping the run (10th), and are at home, at night. Plus, Texas can also throw the ball and play pass defense, something K-State has been unable to do with consistency.

Points: Both teams can score, but both like to use a clock-draining ground game to do it.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-19, 55.5)

Why California will cover: Stanford still struggles to slow the pass, which is Cal’s strength on offense. The Bears are decent across the board on defense. Not great, but decent.

Why Stanford will cover: Stanford had covered every game until last week’s loss to Oregon. The Cardinal is stronger on both sides of the ball than the Bears, and should come out fired up.

Points: While Stanford has been hitting the over, the under is 7-0 in Cal’s last seven.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/17/2011 07:02 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's games

Virginia Tech won six of last seven games vs North Carolina, with dogs covering three of last four. Hokies won last five games overall- they are 0-4 as home favorites this year, wth home wins by 19-3-16 points, and a loss to Clemson. Carolina lost three of last four games, covered one of last five; since 2008, Tar Heels are 5-4 as road underdogs, 0-2 this year. Four of last five Tech games, three of last four UNC games went over the total. Double digit home favorites are 6-5 in ACC games this season.

Memphis is horrible, 1-8 vs D-I teams, losing home games by 45-42-18-6 points; they led last game 35-17 in 4th quarter and still lost. Tigers are 2-7 as underdogs this year, 0-4 at home- they're 3-11 in last 14 games as a home dog. Marshall won last three series games, by 15-1-11 points, as dogs covered all three games; Herd won 27-16 in last visit here, only win by a visitor in last six series games. Thundering Herd is 1-5 on road this year, with only win 17-13 as Louisville (+10.5). C-USA underdogs of 9+ points are 1-8 against the spread at home this season.

UAB won last two games vs Southern Mississippi, after losing previous nine series games; Eagles won five of last visits here, losing 30-17 in last visit two years ago. Blazers won LY's game 50-49, after trailing big early. UAB is 1-3 at home this year, losing by 39-18-43 points; they're 1-2 as home underdogs this year, 5-5-1 under Calloway. C-USA underdogs of 9+ points are 1-8 against the spread at home this season. Eagles won last eight games, covering six of last seven; since '03, they're 19-8 as favorites on foreign soil. Over is 5-2 in last seven USM games, 3-1 in UAB's last four contests.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/17/2011 07:04 PM


Thursday, November 17

What bettors need to know: Thursday's Top 25 NCAAF action

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 61.5)

THE STORY: No. 20 Southern Miss appears to be on a collision course with 10th-ranked Houston for the Conference USA Championship Game, but both teams still have work left to do. The Cougars have tough games remaining against SMU and Tulsa, while the Golden Eagles merely have to win one of their final two games against bottom-feeders Alabama-Birmingham and Memphis. Southern Miss has won eight straight games since a slip-up at Marshall in Week 2, which is tied for coach Larry Fedora’s longest winning streak since he took over in 2008.

Southern Miss won the first nine meetings in this series, but Alabama-Birmingham has claimed the last two games, including last season’s 50-49 double-overtime win.

TV: CBS Sports Network

LINE MOVES: Southern Miss opened at -21 and has been bet up to -23.

ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS (9-1, 5-1 Conference USA, 7-3 ATS): The Golden Eagles are off to their best start since 1962, and another win would be only their third 10-win season in school history and first since 1988. Last weekend, Southern Miss barely escaped with a 30-29 home win over Central Florida, which scored a touchdown as time expired but then failed on a two-point conversion that would’ve won the game. The Golden Eagles limited UCF to only 48 yards rushing, holding an opponent under 100 yards on the ground for the fifth time this season. Southern Miss is 20-1 all-time under Fedora when accomplishing that.

ABOUT ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM (2-8, 2-5 Conference USA, 6-4 ATS): The Blazers snapped a two-game skid with a dramatic come-from-behind win at Memphis last weekend. Trailing 35-17 in the fourth-quarter, Alabama-Birmingham reeled off 24 unanswered points to win 41-35 and complete the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history. Jonathan Perry tossed two of his four touchdowns in the final period, and Greg Franklin scored on a 10-yard run that proved to be the game-winner with 1:36 left.


1. After running back Bruce Johnson and wide receiver Chris Briggs notched their first touchdowns of the season last weekend, a school-record 21 different players have scored for Southern Miss in 2011.

2. Seven of the 11 games in this series have been decided by seven points or less, but the Golden Eagles are 6-1 in those games.

3. Southern Miss ranks 16th nationally in scoring offense (36.8), while the Blazers are 113th in scoring defense (37.2).


* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama-Birmingham.
* Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Golden Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.

PREDICTION: Southern Miss 52, Alabama-Birmingham 28. The Blazers have given up at least 49 points three times this season, and this game will likely be the fourth

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)

THE STORY: No. 7 Virginia Tech controls its own destiny in its pursuit of the ACC championship and the BCS Bowl berth that comes with the trophy. The Hokies made it through one test with a win at Georgia Tech last week and are currently one game ahead of rival Virginia in the ACC Coastal Division. With a visit to the Cavaliers on tap for next weekend, Virginia Tech must first sneak past a dangerous North Carolina team. The Tar Heels looked like they had a chance to make some noise in the ACC until running into a rough patch over the last month with losses in three of their last four games. North Carolina was shut out for the first time in five years on Nov. 5 but has had a bye week to prepare for the Virginia Tech offense. Hokies coach Frank Beamer will be looking for his 250th career win when the Tar Heels visits Blacksburg, Va., on Thursday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE MOVES: The Hokies opened as high as -11 and have been bet down to -10.5.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (6-4, 2-4 ACC, 4-6 ATS): The Tar Heels expect to have quarterback Bryn Renner healthy on Thursday after the sophomore was knocked out of the 13-0 loss at North Carolina State with a concussion. Renner was coming off his first career 300-yard passing performance in a win over Wake Forest when he ran into trouble against the Wolfpack. North Carolina managed only three rushing yards against NC State and is 72nd in the FBS in rushing average at 144.8 yards.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (9-1, 5-1, 3-7 ATS): The Hokies are aiming for a berth in their fourth ACC Championship game in the last five years. Beamer’s offense is running in high gear lately, going over 400 total yards in five straight, and is coming off a strong performance in a 37-26 victory over Georgia Tech. Sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas passed for three touchdowns and rushed for two more - the second time this season he has totaled five scores in a game.


1. The Hokies are 25-2 in November games since 2004.

2. The last time the schools met on a Thursday in Blacksburg, the Tar Heels came away with a 20-17 victory in 2009.

3. Renner’s father, Bill, was a punter for Virginia Tech.


* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.

PREDICTION: Hokies 24, Tar Heels 14. Thomas will prove to be too much for the North Carolina defense.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/17/2011 07:08 PM

Thursday, November 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi -23 500

Alabama-Birmingham - Under 61 500

North Carolina - 8:00 PM ET North Carolina +9 500

Virginia Tech - Under 47.5 500

Marshall - 8:00 PM ET Memphis +11.5 500

Memphis - Over 50 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33418 Followers:38
11/17/2011 07:39 PM

North Carolina at Virginia Tech

November 17, 2011

Matchup: North Carolina (6-4) at #9 Virginia Tech (9-1)
Venue: Lane Stadium (Natural Grass)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 10
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech -10.5, o/u 47

Thanks to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, my seesaw season on Thursday nights rolls on. Paul Johnson's team had looked very impressive at home this season and I suspected they would be too much for the visitors from Blacksburg, VA. Alas, Virginia Tech got a strong game from David Wilson on the ground and solid effort from their defense and were able to put a strangle hold on the coastal division of the ACC.

This week we will stick with the Hokies and head over to Blacksburg as head coach Frank Beamer welcomes the North Carolina Tar Heels to town.


UNC is coming off a bye and the extra rest couldn't have come at a better time for the program. After starting the season 5-1, the Tar Heels have dropped three of their last four games. The low point for UNC came in their most recent game, on Nov. 5 against NC State. Carolina was blanked 13-0 by a pretty pedestrian Wolfpack squad in a game where the team looked listless.

If the bye week wasn't able to recharge the batteries for the Tar Heels, it could be a long night for the visitors from North Carolina. After beating Georgia Tech, the Hokies know they are a couple of steps away from returning to the ACC Championship game and likely a chance to seek revenge against Clemson.

The Tigers are the only team to beat Virginia Tech and they did it in convincing fashion with a 23-3 win in Blacksburg on Oct. 1. In that game, Clemson executed a very efficient offense and combined that with a devastating effort on defense to suffocate the Hokies.

That combination is something that - on a good day - North Carolina is capable of bringing to the field. Most talent evaluators recognize that North Carolina has a ton of NFL talent along their defensive front seven. Players such as DE Quinton Coples will definitely be playing on Sunday afternoons soon enough and if Virginia Tech isn't up for the challenge, the Heels could make things interesting Thursday night.

On offense, Carolina features QB Bryn Renner, a sophomore who is still learning the nuances of the college game. Throwing for 227.1 yards per game while completing 71.4% of his passes, Renner has shown flashes of brilliance with 19 TDs but also plenty of rookie mistakes with 11 INTs in 10 games. The youngster has also taken his fair share of bumps and bruises lately as he's been sacked 22 times this season, including 14 in the last five games.

The other side of the coin for the UNC offense is RB Giovani Bernard. The talented back is third in the ACC in rushing with just over 100 yards a game and second in the conference with 11 rushing TDs. Behind a North Carolina offensive line which averages 6-5, 319 pounds, Bernard is typically provided with plenty of holes to run through.

If Renner can eliminate the mistakes and be efficient with his passes and Bernard can establish an effective running game, North Carolina could definitely make this game interesting. Remember, UNC won on their last trip to Blacksburg, defeating the Hokies 20-17 in 2009.

That said, on senior night in Lane Stadium, with the Hokies eyeing another return to the ACC Championship game, it's hard to believe we will see much less than the best effort from Beamer's program. If that is the case, UNC will have a hard time matching the home team.

Betting Notes:

Virginia Tech has gone 3-7 ATS
VT has gone 4-1 SU and 1-4 ATS at home this season, the lone cover coming against Appalachian State (66-13)
The Hokies are 1-5 ATS as double-digit favorites this season
North Carolina is 4-6 ATS
The Tar Heels are 1-3 both SU and ATS on the road, all three losses by double digits
Virginia Tech has won 6 of the last 7 meetings (4-3 ATS) against North Carolina
The Hokies have been double-digit favorites in five of these games, only covering twice
The 'under' has gone 6-1 during this run

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: