cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
On 11/14/2011 05:56 PM in NHL

Cnotes Monday's NHL Best Bets !

Buffalo Sabres Start Tough Stretch Without Miller

The Buffalo Sabres begin a tough stretch of four games in six days on Monday when they visit the Montreal Canadiens at 7:00 p.m. (ET). But it could be even more difficult for the Sabres (10-6) without starting goaltender Ryan Miller, who suffered a concussion in a 6-2 road loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins on Saturday.

Miller is out indefinitely for Buffalo after he was hit by Boston’s Milan Lucic in the second period. He will be replaced in the lineup by Jhonas Enroth, who has done a stellar job in relief so far this season. Enroth is 5-0 in his starts with a 1.75 Goals Against Average.

The Sabres are just one point behind the Toronto Maple Leafs (10-6-1) for the lead in the Northeast Division.

The Canadiens (7-7-2) have won their last two games on the road by one goal apiece and are 6-3-1 in their past 10 overall. However, Montreal is just 2-4-2 at home this year while the Sabres are 5-2 on the road and had won four in a row before falling to the Bruins.

The Philadelphia Flyers (9-4-3) also take the ice Monday at 7:00 p.m. and will be looking to improve on the NHL’s top road record when they visit the Carolina Hurricanes (6-8-3). The Flyers are 5-1-1 away from home and have split their past four games overall, with both losses coming in overtime.

Philadelphia will be playing on consecutive nights after edging the Florida Panthers 3-2 on Sunday. Winger Matt Read scored the game-winner for the Flyers on a penalty shot in the third period while goalie Ilya Bryzgalov made 31 saves to earn his fourth win in five starts. They play four games total this week following a two-game road trip to Florida.

The Hurricanes broke a four-game losing streak with a 5-3 home win against the Pittsburgh Penguins (10-4-3) on Saturday. They are tied for the fourth-fewest amount of point in the league with 15 and visit Montreal on Wednesday before hosting Buffalo on Friday.

Monday’s third and final game features the team with the second-fewest points in the NHL, the Winnipeg Jets (5-9-3), who will host the Tampa Bay Lightning (8-6-2) at 8:30 p.m. Winnipeg has 13 points and hopes to snap a five-game skid, with two of those losses resulting in OT.

The Lightning saw their three-game winning streak come to an end with a 3-0 road loss to the St. Louis Blues (8-7-1) on Saturday. However, they have won the last 12 meetings in the series against the Jets, who were known as the Atlanta Thrashers from 1999-2011.

One of the week's most anticipated matchups will take place Saturday in Toronto where the Maple Leafs host the Washington Capitals. Both squads begin the week with 21 points and leading their respective divisions, Toronto in the Northeast and Washington in the Southeast. The Caps took three of four last season from the Leafs, including both trips to Toronto.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
11/14/2011 05:58 PM

Miller-less Sabres visit Habs Monday

BUFFALO SABRES (10-6-0, 20 points)

at MONTREAL CANADIENS (7-7-2, 16 points)

Puck drops: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Buffalo -115, Montreal -105, Total: 5

The Buffalo Sabres look to leap into first place in the extremely tight Northeast Division on Monday night when they travel to Montreal to face a Canadiens squad that has won two in a row.

The Sabres defeated the Canadiens 3-1 at Bell Centre in their first matchup of the season on October 18, but this time around they will be without starting goaltender Ryan Miller (5-6-0, 2.86 GAA, .909 SV Pct.), who suffered a concussion in an ugly 6-2 loss to Boston on Saturday. Backup Jhonas Enroth (5-0-0, 1.75 GAA, .944 SV Pct.) has surprisingly been the better goaltender so far this season, and jumps into the starting role for the foreseeable future with Miller out indefinitely. The 23-year-old Swedish netminder has faced Montreal just once in his career—a 3-2 shootout victory at Bell Centre last February. Carey Price (6-6-2, 2.49 GAA, .905 SV Pct.) should get the start for the Habs, whose 2-4-2 home record is one of the worst in the NHL. Price has posted terrific numbers against the Sabres in his career (1.96 GAA, .936 SV Pct.) despite an average 8-6-5 record. Buffalo has won three straight and six of its past eight games in Montreal, but the Canadiens—who are 6-2-0 in their past eight contests this season—are the hotter team right now. Expect MONTREAL to pick up the win at home and gain ground in the Northeast Division standings, which are separated by just five points top to bottom.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Canadiens:

MONTREAL is 32-23 ATS (58.2%, +57.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MONTREAL 3.0, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 1*).

The Sabres boast an extremely balanced offensive attack, already featuring two 20-point scorers in LW Thomas Vanek (11 G, 9 A) and RW Jason Pominville (6 G, 14 A). And 21-year-old rookie C Luke Adam (5 G, 8 A) has been prolific centering for the two aforementioned wingers, and is an early candidate for the Calder Trophy.

Buffalo’s defense has also been sharp thus far, allowing an average of 2.5 goals per game (11th in NHL). Free-agent pickup Christian Ehrhoff (1 G, 9 A) has boosted the power play (four PP assists) and Robyn Regehr is tied for third among NHL defensemen in hits (44).

Montreal’s offense has struggled, managing just 2.5 goals per game (20th in NHL), and ranking 27th in power-play pct. (11.9%). The Habs are led by C Tomas Plekanec (4 G, 10 A) and LW Max Pacioretty (7 G, 5 A). The Canadiens need increased production from sniper Mike Cammalleri (3 G, 4 A, -6 rating) and RW Andrei Kostitsyn (5 G, 4 A) if they hope to stay competitive in this dangerous division.

The defense is led by Josh Gorges (1 G, 7 A, +10 rating) and the offensive-minded P.K. Subban (5 A). The unit ranks 12th in the league, yielding 2.6 goals per game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:01 PM

Trending: Betting NHL games

Just like any other sport, NHL betting takes some commitment to research and analysis of key trends to help make the best decision possible. And because hockey games happen every night, it’s much more difficult for odds makers to nail each and every line as tightly as they do with the NFL. The more games you have at your disposal, the more opportunities you have to find value. Now that we’re about a month into the NHL season, let’s summarize the most important things to look for before placing your NHL wagers.

Road Teams
Ever wonder how a bad team becomes REALLY bad? Well, it probably has something to do with an inability to win on the road. The advantages of playing at home in hockey extend way beyond having the crowd on your side and sleeping in your own bed the night before; in the NHL, home teams have the power of the last line change. Meaning, after every whistle, the visiting team must put its players onto the ice first, allowing for the home team’s coach to get the best matchup possible for his players. And for the really bad teams that lack depth on offense and defense, that last change can be a recipe for disaster.
As a guide, let’s take a look at the road records of five of the worst teams in the NHL through games of Thursday, Nov. 10:

Team Overall Road Avg. Road Loss
Columbus 2-12-1 0-7-0 2.86
New York Islanders 4-6-3 0-3-2 2.20
Winnipeg 5-8-3 3-5-3 1.75
Carolina 5-7-3 2-4-2 1.83
Anaheim 5-7-3 2-4-3 2.29

This data is pretty self-explanatory, but here’s the main thing to take away from it: betting against bad teams is sometimes just as important as betting for good teams. Take, for instance, Tuesday night’s game between the Islanders and Bruins in Boston. Even though the Bruins have struggled out of the gate this year, they still boast one of the league’s deepest lineups. This point was not lost on most books, as their money line closed at -190. Now, there’s not much value in that number, but that’s why you MUST search for options to manipulate the line. We’ll explain below.

Shop for the Best
Most sports books offer a variety of different options for NHL lines, and shopping for the right type of bet is crucial—especially when betting against bad road teams. In addition to straight money lines, many books offer favorites at -1½ or “To Win in Regulation.”
The upside to these lines—of course—is that you get much better odds. After all, you are paying a premium for the margin of victory. And in the case of the Islanders, if they play on the road against a St. Louis or an Ottawa, you should definitely proceed with caution. But looking at the Isles’ average loss margin on the road, if you thought they were going to lose to Boston on Tuesday, the odds were in your favor that the loss would be by more than one goal. One book listed the Bruins “to win in regulation” at -115 for Tuesday’s game, and if you grabbed that, you enjoyed a sweat-free night as the B’s cruised to a 6-2 victory.

Keep in mind, no rule is fool-proof. But always keep track of the best home teams (Washington, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc.). When they host the crappy road teams, don’t be scared off by the high money line. If you shop around, you can find plenty of value in that regulation victory.

Back-to-Back Nights
With the NHL’s grueling 82-game season, playing on back-to-back nights is simply unavoidable. The data below documents the win/loss records for teams on the second night of back-to-back games for the entire 2010-2011 season and all games through Thursday, Nov. 10 of this season. To give greater context, the four categories indicate where the first and second games were played. So, for the first row, the win/loss record reflects the results of the second game on the road after playing on the road the night before.
1st Night/2nd Night W-L Record Losing Pct.
Road/Road 92-115 55.6%
Home/Road 77-83 51.9%
Road/Home 68-75 52.5%
Home/Home 10-16 61.5%
TOTAL 247-289 53.9%

The results here should give you an indication of how difficult it is to win back-to-back games in this league. In all four categories, teams lost the second game of back-to-backs at nearly a 54 percent clip. Not surprisingly, the most back-to-back games occur during road trips, hence the large amount of games in the “Road/Road” category. And although the highest losing percentage falls in the “Home/Home” category, the small sample size shows that few opportunities exist for this scenario.

Once again, it all comes back to paying attention to the schedules. If you know a team (preferably a bad one) is playing the second leg of back-to-back road games, then study up on the home team’s schedule. If the home team didn’t play the night before and boasts a strong home record, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. The numbers are in your favor.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:02 PM


Buffalo at Montreal
The Canadiens look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games as an underdog. Montreal is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-105). Here are all of today's picks.


Game 51-52: Philadelphia at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.637; Carolina 10.821
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under

Game 53-54: Buffalo at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.412; Montreal 11.901
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-105); Over

Game 55-56: Tampa Bay at Winnipeg (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.898; Winnipeg 10.187
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Under

Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, November 14

Hot teams
-- Flyers won five of their seven road games.
-- Sabres won four of their last five games; Montreal won six of eight.

Cold teams
-- Hurricanes lost four of their last five games.
-- Winnipeg lost last five games, outscored 19-10. Lightning lost seven of their last nine road games.

-- Six of last seven Carolina games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Buffalo road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of lat eight Tampa Bay road games went over the total.

Series records
-- Flyers won ten of last eleven games against Carolina.
-- Sabres won their last four games against Montreal.
-- Lightning won its last twelve games against Winnipeg.


Monday, November 14

Trend Report

7:00 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Carolina is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Philadelphia

7:30 PM
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

8:30 PM
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home



Monday, November 14

Ice picks: Monday's best NHL bets

Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens (-105, 5)

The Buffalo Sabres have to be worried about Ryan Miller.

He snapped at the media after looking shaky in Buffalo’s 6-2 loss to Boston on Saturday. Miller gave up three goals on 22 shots and then left the game with an upper body injury, likely a result of a collision with Milan Lucic.

Jhonas Enroth has been hot and will likely get the call, but the Sabres need to man up a bit. Nobody came to Miller’s aid after Lucic steamrolled him and the netminder wasn’t pleased about it.

"I'm embarrassed that we didn't respond the way we should have," Paul Gaustad told reporters. "It falls on myself. I look at myself first, and I wasn't good enough. We didn't push back. There's no reason to be scared. We had to go after it, and we didn't."

Montreal has won two straight and is a good bet to snap a four-game losing streak against Buffalo.

Pick: Canadiens

Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets (+125, 5.5)

If the Jets don’t pull together a bit soon, they may wish they were back in Atlanta, where nobody cared when they suffered though long winless streaks.

Slumps don’t go over as well in hockey-crazy Winnipeg. The Jets dropped their fifth straight game Saturday night, falling 2-1 to the lowly Blue Jackets.

"My task is to get you as an individual player to deal with reality,” Winnipeg coach Claude Noel told reporters. “This is what you are. Now, they sometimes don't see that. People have different levels when it comes to that. There are people that choose to maybe live in a house with not many mirrors, so we have to provide them. That's OK."

The Lightning are coming off a 3-0 shutout against St. Louis and will come to play Monday.

Pick: Lightning

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:03 PM


Monday, November 14

Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

HOT TEAM: New York Rangers

They had to open the season overseas, and even when they came back to North America, the renovated Madison Square Garden wasn’t ready yet, so they continued on the road in the Western Conference.

A month later, the Rangers have finally had some home games, have had some time to sleep in their own beds, and have been able to recuperate. The results have been impressive. Friday’s 5-1 win over Carolina, in which they scored four goals in the third period, was New York’s sixth consecutive, the franchise’s longest winning streak since October 2009.

The Rangers are now 5-1-1 in their refurbished home, which is the best start they've had there since 1992. And they seem to be snapping slumps along the way. On Friday, vs. Carolina, Brandon Dubinsky finally scored his first goal of the season, after potting 24 last year.

It's going to be tough for New York to keep up with Pittsburgh in the Atlantic Division, moving forward, but the Rangers have skill up front, depth on the back line, and of course, they can always rely on goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, if all else fails.

COLD TEAM: Colorado Avalanche

When you can’t take advantage of home ice, you’re going to have problems in the Western Conference, and the Avalanche are proof positive. Colorado is 2-6 in Denver, and is only 1-5 in November overall.

Trying to build off a 4-3 win over the Islanders on Thursday, Colorado again came up short on Saturday, dropping a 4-3 decision to Calgary in which the Flames opened with a 3-0 in the first period.

Maybe it’s just something about Calgary that gets Colorado shaking. The Flames have defeated the Avalanche eight consecutive straight times and two times this month.

And let’s face it, the defense needs to improve. Goaltenders Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere have been good at times, but with little help, Colorado has already allowed 50 goals.

OVER PLAY: Carolina Hurricanes

They’re still not very good, and as usual, it will be a grind for them to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, but boy are the Hurricanes an entertaining watch these days. And that description is usually code for overs. Plenty of them.

Carolina’s 5-3 victory over the Penguins on Saturday night was the team’s second straight over in a 24-hour span. The Hurricanes have gone over in six of the last seven games, and have only gone under in November once.

The offense -- often a problem in Carolina -- has been fast and furious. Jeff Skinner has seven goals and 10 assists, Tuomo Ruutu has six scores, and even Eric Staal, who has had a slow start, has recovered a bit with four goals and three assists.

Goaltender Cam Ward, who made 37 saves vs. the Penguins, is due for a breakout, so beware. Stuck with 3.05 goals-against average, he’s bound to turn it around at some point, so ride this over train while you can.

UNDER PLAY: St. Louis Blues

New coach Ken Hitchcock has reinvigorated the troops, and the Blues have notched at least one point in all three of his games behind the bench. And as any typical Hitchcock team would do, St. Louis has returned to its stingy ways on defense.

Look no further than a 3-0 victory over Tampa Bay on Saturday night. It was Hitchcock’s second win in three tries, and all three of his games have gone under. In fact, St. Louis is riding a five-game under streak, headed into Tuesday’s game versus Detroit.

In the brief Hitchcock Era, the Blues have outscored the competition, 8-3, and goaltenders Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott have one shutout each. Keep St. Louis on your under radar, moving forward.

Surveying the schedule:

** The banged-up Flyers had a nice, little respite last week, playing only once, at Tampa Bay. But they’ll get back to it this week. Sunday’s game versus the Panthers in Florida was the opener of a back-to-back set of games for Philadelphia, and opened a run of five games in a nine-day span.

** The Canucks, on the other hand, will take a little breather this week. Sunday’s game vs. the Islanders in Vancouver was one of just two games in a seven-day span for the defending Western Conference champions. So, expect some fresh legs when the Canucks play the Senators on Nov. 20.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:06 PM

Long Sheet

Monday, November 14


PHILADELPHIA (9-4-0-3, 21 pts.) at CAROLINA (6-8-0-3, 15 pts.) - 11/14/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 10-25 ATS (-20.3 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 32-61 ATS (+101.5 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 5-16 ATS (+23.1 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-10 ATS (-8.4 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 (+6.6 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.6 Units)


BUFFALO (10-6-0-0, 20 pts.) at MONTREAL (7-7-0-2, 16 pts.) - 11/14/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 23-33 ATS (-18.9 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 226-158 ATS (+38.5 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
BUFFALO is 175-122 ATS (+30.5 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 8-5 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 8-5-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
11 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+9.0 Units)


TAMPA BAY (8-6-0-2, 18 pts.) at WINNIPEG (5-9-0-3, 13 pts.) - 11/14/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 85-168 ATS (+307.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 29-72 ATS (+118.4 Units) in road games in November games since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 236-325 ATS (-110.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 103-162 ATS (-66.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 65-50 ATS (+116.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 34-24 ATS (+58.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 12-1 (+11.9 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 12-1-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-1.1 Units)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:07 PM

Short Sheet

Monday, November 14

PHILADELPHIA: 8-1 SU vs. Carolina
CAROLINA: 5-16 SU off win by 2+ goals

BUFFALO: 15-6 SU off road loss
MONTREAL: 3-11 SU at home off BB road games

TAMPA BAY: 34-24 SU vs. division
WINNIPEG: 1-12 SU vs. Tampa Bay

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:09 PM

Monday, November 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -120 500
Carolina - Over 5.5 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -107 500
Montreal - Under 5 500

Tampa Bay - 8:30 PM ET Tampa Bay -135 500
Winnipeg - Over 5.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: