wearstyle Posts:1 Followers:0
06/23/2014 04:37 AM

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cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
06/25/2014 11:00 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NFL knowledge for a summer day....

13) Since 2010, Dallas Cowboys are 6-19 as home favorites; underdogs are 24-8 vs spread in their last 32 home games.

12) Ravens are 8-2 vs spread under John Harbaugh if they lost their previous game by double digit margin.

11) Seattle Seahawks are 25-11 vs spread with Russell Wilson at QB.

10) Chicago Bears covered once in their last nine games as an underdog.

9) Steelers are 36-19-2 vs spread in division games with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback

8) Atlanta Falcons are 16-9 vs spread in their last 25 games as a favorite.

7) Patriots are 30-14-3 vs. spread with Tom Brady at QB if they lost their previous game.

6) Buffalo Bills covered nine of their last 11 road games if they were also on road the week before.

5) Arizona Cardinals were 4-1 vs. spread LY in game following a loss.

4) Miami Dolphins are 6-1 as a home underdog with Ryan Taneyhill at QB.

3) Carolina Panthers are just 7-15 vs. spread in their last 22 games as a dog.

2) Philip Rivers’ Chargers are 23-14-2 vs spread as an underdog.

1) Cincinnati Bengals covered the last nine times they were a home underdog against an NFC team.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
06/27/2014 02:12 PM

13 new officials set for 2014 NFL season

June 26, 2014

NEW YORK (AP) - The NFL hired 13 new officials for the 2014 season and promoted three veterans to referee.

First-year official Brad Allen will join the NFL as a referee from the Atlantic Coast Conference, where he has been a referee for the past nine seasons.

Allen is the first to go to the referee position in his first NFL season since Tommy Bell in 1962.

Allen has refereed several major bowl games, including the 2012 Rose Bowl and 2014 Sugar Bowl. Allen replaces veteran referee Mike Carey, who will join CBS Sports as a rules analyst.

Veteran NFL officials Ronald Torbert and Craig Wrolstad are new referees in 2014, replacing retired referees Scott Green and Ron Winter. Wrolstad has spent the past 11 seasons as a field judge while Torbert has worked the past four as a side judge.

Among the dozen new officials are side judge Shawn Hochuli, the son of referee Ed Hochuli, and field judge Brad Freeman, the son of back judge Steve Freeman, a former player with Buffalo.

Two women, line judge Sarah Thomas and head linesperson Maia Chaka, will work minicamps and preseason games this year. They are in the officiating development program and officiated in Conference USA in 2013.

''Our first-year officials were all among the best in college football, including Brad Allen, one of our new referees,'' NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino said.

''Brad was an outstanding referee for many years in the ACC and we are excited about having him on the field. Ron and Craig have proven to be outstanding NFL officials and they also are ready to assume the referee position.''

The other first-year officials are umpires Mark Pellis and Bryan Neale; head linesman Patrick Turner; field judges Eugene Hall and John Jenkins; side judges Alex Kemp and Scott Novak; line judge Ed Walker; and back judges Rich Martinez and Steve Patrick.

The most experienced officials are referees Walt Coleman, in his 26th season, and the Ed Hochuli, in his 25th.

In all, 119 officials will work in seven-man crews during the regular season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
07/02/2014 12:33 PM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Updated Week 1 NFL odds.........

Green Bay @ Seattle (-5.5, 45)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2, 52)

Minnesota @ St Louis (-6, 45.5)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-5.5, 40.5)

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia (-11, 51.5)

Oakland @ NJ Jets (-4.5, 39.5)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-2.5, 43)

Buffalo @ Chicago (-6, 48.5)

Washington @ Houston (-2.5, 45.5)

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-6, 44)

New England (-3.5, 47) @ Miami

Carolina (-1.5, 39.5) @ Tampa Bay

San Francisco (-4.5, 48.5) @ Dallas

Indianapolis @ Denver (-7, 55.5)

NJ Giants @ Detroit (-4, 45.5)

San Diego @ Arizona (-3.5, 44.5)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
marksmoneymakers Posts:29967 Followers:142
07/02/2014 01:40 PM

It is almost tempting to lay some bets now. You know there will be some line movements and a really good shot at some middles.

cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
07/07/2014 02:22 PM

Hi Mark............yes you got that right......Good luck Buddy...........Things will be heating up next month......:-))

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
07/07/2014 02:22 PM

New NFL coaches are shaping tone

July 6, 2014

From the smooth, almost laid-back approaches of Lovie Smith and Jim Caldwell to the fiery passion of Mike Zimmer, new NFL coaches are reshaping the environments of their teams.

Some have much bigger chores than others.

Bringing in a new coaching staff usually means the previous one did too much losing. That's true times seven this year as Smith takes over at Tampa Bay, Caldwell in Detroit, Zimmer in Minnesota, Ken Whisenhunt in Tennessee, Bill O'Brien in Houston, Jay Gruden in Washington and Mike Pettine in Cleveland.


Pettine might have the biggest challenge because he takes over a perennial loser: Cleveland last made the playoffs in 2002. There's been discord surrounding the franchise ever since Jimmy Haslam bought it in 2012, and he's already on his third head coach.

The son of a highly successful high school coach, Pettine is bright, self-confident and media savvy, seemingly lacking the suspicious nature of so many NFL head coaches.

He doesn't pull punches, which is critical in engineering a cultural change.

''I would say no nonsense,'' Pettine says. ''I have been nicknamed BFT: Blunt Force Trauma. The days are too short to dance around subjects and I think guys appreciate that.''


Another necessary skill is communication. Smith, who was 84-66 in nine seasons in Chicago, yet was canned after 2012, is a master at that. After the roughness of Greg Schiano's reign in Tampa, Smith's low-key style easily won over the players.

Not that Smith doesn't know how and when to be stern; he learned under Tony Dungy, a master communicator.

''It's been a while, I can honestly say, since you've seen guys smile this much and have this much fun,'' says DT Gerald McCoy, among the Bucs' best players. ''It's just a completely different feel around the building.''


Caldwell also comes from the Dungy coaching tree, and he might still be the man in Indianapolis had Peyton Manning not missed 2011 after neck surgery. The Lions needed a steadying influence as head coach after the often unpredictable Jim Schwartz regime.

To some, Caldwell was a surprise choice. To others, he is the anti-Schwartz and will bring a calm steadiness to Detroit - along with more discipline for a team that sometimes stepped beyond the bounds of NFL protocol in its on-field behavior.

Caldwell has joked about his reputation for remaining even-keeled.

''There's no need for a whole lot of cussing, screaming, yelling and all that kind of stuff,'' Caldwell says. ''It's a mini-quiz out here. I never had any of my professors yelling in my ear when I was sitting at the desk filling out those multiple-choice questions.''


Zimmer might be doing some yelling in Minnesota, but it will be in a constructive way. An outstanding defensive coach in Cincinnati since 2008, he was in the running for several jobs before landing the Vikings gig.

His forthright manner, confidence in his defensive schemes and tough love approach make him stand out from predecessor Leslie Frazier.

Most of all, Zimmer sees himself as an educator.

''I think one of the things of being a coach, you're a teacher,'' he says. ''You're trying to teach them about techniques, you're trying to teach them about all the different aspects of the game of football, not just offense or defense, but what the other side of the ball is thinking.''


Gruden, the younger brother of ESPN analyst and 2003 Super Bowl-winning coach Jon Gruden, was Zimmer's alter ego in Cincinnati. Gruden ran the Bengals' offense, and when Washington decided to replace Mike Shanahan, it sought someone who could design an attack around Robert Griffin III, while also protecting the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Nearly everything had fallen apart in the nation's capital last year, one season removed from an NFC East title. Perhaps most damaging was the fractured relationship between veteran coach and dynamic quarterback.

So Gruden is charged with fixing things on the field and off it.

''I'm not going to try to do something that Shanahan didn't, or not do something that he did, or do something that my brother did or Joe Gibbs did,'' Gruden says. ''I'm just going to try to coach the way I know how, and the way I've done it in the past, and hopefully it'll be good enough.''


Like Gruden, Whisenhunt is considered an offensive guru. With Kurt Warner as his quarterback, he took usually downtrodden Arizona to a Super Bowl. What he likes best is a quick pace - everywhere.

His practices in Tennessee are run at a faster tempo than in previous years. Players and coaches jog from drill to drill. Whisenhunt says he hopes that's noticeable because the intent is to better mimic game speed and conditions.

''I think you have to create an intensity in practice because the game is so fast,'' he explains.

Veteran receiver Nate Washington, who was with Pittsburgh when Whisenhunt was an assistant there, says the change is impossible to miss.

''Before, things have happened in the past and we can't really sit here and try to compare the two or what's been happening before,'' he says. ''But as of right now, I have seen a lot more intensity on this team, period.''


The excitement in Houston disappeared with a 14-game losing string that sank the Texans from AFC South champs to worst in the league. O'Brien, who could have written his own ticket at Penn State for years, instead chose to return to the NFL and take on a reclamation project.

Not as massive a challenge as the one he faced with the Nittany Lions, perhaps. But certainly a hefty one for the former offensive assistant at New England.

O'Brien delivered some not-so-subtle messages early on. Veterans don't have their names on their lockers anymore, only their numbers. A note on the inside of each locker says: ''Always put the team first.''

Rookies have a temporary cubicle set up in the middle of the locker room and won't get real ones until they make the team. That goes for everyone, even top choice Jadeveon Clowney.

''Being a head coach is about making sure the team understands the philosophy of what you want to get done: hard work, being a good teammate, team first and all of those things that we talk about every day,'' O'Brien says.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
07/07/2014 02:24 PM

Jessica Simpson weds ex-NFL player

July 6, 2014

MONTECITO, Calif. (AP) - Jessica Simpson is a newlywed.

The singer and TV personality married retired NFL player Eric Johnson Saturday at San Ysidro Ranch in Montecito, California, her publicist Lauren Auslander confirms.

Simpson and Johnson began dating in 2010. They have a two-year-old daughter, Maxwell, and a one-year-old son named Ace.

Auslander said Ace served as a ring bearer and Maxwell walked down the aisle as a flower girl.

It is the second marriage for both Simpson, 33, and 34-year-old Johnson. Simpson was previously married to singer Nick Lachey. The two co-starred on a VH1 reality series ''Newlyweds: Nick and Jessica'' for three seasons. Shortly after their third wedding anniversary, the two split up.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
07/08/2014 01:46 AM

Win Projections

July 7, 2014

One of the more interesting articles this time of season is the plus/minus four wins analysis; what does that mean?

Each NFL season we see approximately a dozen teams either enjoy 4+ more wins or suffer through 4+ more losses compared to the prior year – that is a significant swing considering that equals about 37.5% of all NFL teams have a 25% or greater change in their win total.

Of course this analysis is more for the straight-up analyst – really for fans of each team – but it can certainly also add value to the bettor with future plays or as a small cog in your week to week handicapping efforts if applied properly.

Initially, be sure to check out the Win Rankings for each team for each of the last five seasons along with total wins for the last five & three seasons with a ranking of each for those metrics as well.

2014 Projected Wins
- All Scenarios My Realistic Scenarios
- 2014 Projected Wins 2014 Projected Wins
Team +4 Wins -4 Wins +4 Wins -4 Wins
ARI - 6 - 6
ATL 8 - 8 -
BAL 12 4 12 -
BUF 10 2 - -
CAR - 8 - 8
CHI 12 4 12 -
CIN - 7 - 7
CLE 8 - 8 -
DAL 12 4 12 4
DEN - 9 - -
DET 11 3 11 -
GB 12 4 12 -
HOU 6 - 6 -
IND - 7 - 7
JAC 8 - - -
KC - 7 - 7
MIA 12 4 12 -
MIN 9 - 9 -
NE - 8 - 8
NO - 7 - 7
NYG 11 - 11 -
NYJ 12 4 12 4
OAK 8 - 8 -
PHI - 6 - 6
PIT 12 4 12 4
SD 13 5 13 5
SEA - 9 - 9
SF - 8 - 8
STL 11 3 - 3
TB 8 - 8 -
TEN 11 3 - 3
WAS 7 - 7 -
Possibilities 44 33

There are 44 possible outcomes under “all scenarios”, which uses strictly the math of the analysis, where teams could either improve or worsen their wins by 4+ games; the two columns to the right is where I have eliminated 11 of those 44 possible outcomes leaving us with 33 “final” choices, of which approximately a dozen will actually occur (it also just so happened those 33 are split into 17 who could improve by 4+ games & 16 who could worsen by same amount).

Of those 12 possibilities it is also a fair assumption to split those 6/6 – half of the changes will occur by teams improving (2nd to last column on right) while half will occur with teams worsening (last column on right). I am sure when you first look at those 33 potential outcomes it seems hard to believe that 12 of them will occur – but that is what makes this analysis so interesting: just like we see almost half the NFL playoff teams change YOY we will see these drastic record changes despite it looking so far-fetched as we sit here today.

What are the best ways to attempt at selecting which outcomes are most likely? One place to start is examining the first matrix I posted which shows how each team has done in each of the last five seasons – was last year an outlier? Of course there are many variables that need to be taken into account such as injuries last year, free agent additions this year, draft picks, schedule, etc...(most of those topics I will be touching on prior to the start of the season in my usual NFL season preview entries).

One additional angle I will present here is Phil Steele’s “Stock Market Indicator” (SMI) – this metric simply takes a 2-year average of each teams wins, compares it to their performance last year & can be used as a forward looking indicator.

Stock Market Indicator
Team 2011-12 Average 2013 Variance
ARI 7.5 10 (2.5)
ATL 8.5 4 4.5
BAL 9 8 1.0
BUF 6 6 0.0
CAR 9.5 12 (2.5)
CHI 9 8 1.0
CIN 10.5 11 (0.5)
CLE 4.5 4 0.5
DAL 8.5 8 0.5
DEN 13 13 0.0
DET 5.5 7 (1.5)
GB 9.5 8 1.5
HOU 7 2 5.0
IND 11 11 0.0
JAC 3 4 (1.0)
KC 6.5 11 (4.5)
MIA 7.5 8 (0.5)
MIN 7.5 5 2.5
NE 12 12 0.0
NO 9 11 (2.0)
NYG 7.5 7 0.5
NYJ 7 8 (1.0)
OAK 4 4 0.0
PHI 7 10 (3.0)
PIT 8 8 0.0
SD 8 9 (1.0)
SEA 12 13 (1.0)
SF 11.5 12 (0.5)
STL 7 7 0.0
TB 5.5 4 1.5
TEN 6.5 7 (0.5)
WAS 6.5 3 3.5

*Positive numbers in the variance column represent teams that SMI would be bullish on this year while negative numbers represent bearish teams


Atlanta Falcons to 8 wins: Really dropped off a cliff last year down to 4 wins after some very tough early season losses that seemed to snowball quickly. Before last year the Falcons had averaged 11.2 wins per year since QB Matt Ryan took over in 2008 including a floor of 9 wins. At the moment my calibrated wins model has the Falcons going 8-8 although they do face a tough schedule that is ranked 7th overall using my power ratings (8th toughest road & 11th toughest home) including facing the AFC & NFC North. My models also expect an improvement to their TOM, the SMI is +4.5 and they should enjoy better luck with injuries.

Houston Texans to 6 wins: Before last year’s 2-14 mark they had not won fewer than 6 games since 2005. There is still a ton of talent on this roster & although a coaching change was made to Bill O’Brien he has been successful at all prior stops including his only head coaching experience at Penn State the last couple years. Currently my calibrated wins model projects a 7-9 mark versus the weakest schedule in the NFL as measured by my power ratings (Important to note I say currently when specifically talking to calibrated wins model & SOS because they are completely driven by the power rating I apply to each team, which is fluid & not only could change before the season starts due to injury or other reasons but they shift weekly during the season). Houston suffered through the worst YOY change in TOM last season at a whopping (32) – that will no doubt improve. Considering the Texans were 21st in my performance ratings last year vs. the 10th toughest schedule, a weak division, the top SMI in the NFL at +5.0 & a new voice in the room with O’Brien I feel they should easily top this 6 win mark.

Washington Redskins to 7 wins: Despite winning 10 games & the NFC East in RG3’s rookie season of 2012 the Skins struggled mightily in 2013 going just 3-13 leading to the firing of Head Coach Mike Shanahan. That by itself should give a boost to Washington as there was a clear dysfunctional relationship between he & his prized QB – in comes Jay Gruden who has no NFL head coaching experience but has been an OC with modest success. The Skins had the 3rd worst YOY change in TOM last year which should improve this season & currently my calibrated wins model projects an 8-8 mark in 2014. Their SOS based on my current power ratings checks in at 26th in the NFL (18th on road & 28th at home) – easiest in their division, while the SMI is bullish as well at a +3.5.


Arizona Cardinals to 6 wins: This coming year the Cardinals will face the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL largely because they reside in the toughest division in football, but also driven by the fact they are playing the strong AFC West & the “no team is awful” NFC East. In addition to their SOS their QB is still Carson Palmer whom many believe played well last year but according to my performance ratings their offense was just 19th in the NFL including 25th in rushing offense & 30th in INT’s thrown as a % of pass attempts. With St. Louis improving & their other two divisional rivals remaining Super Bowl threats ARI is due for a dip this season – how far is yet to be determined but I feel they are amongst the handful of most likely to worsen by 4+ games.

Cincinnati Bengals to 7 wins: We have all likely seen the stat that each year we can expect to see approximately 5 new playoff teams – well that is a big reason the Bengals made the cut here unfortunately. Cincy has improved each of the last 3 seasons going from just 4 wins in 2010 to 9, 10 & 11 the last three – but this could be the year we see a step back. How fragile is Andy Dalton mentally is one big question after playing so badly in the playoffs once again. Their schedule does not appear to be a killer checking in at #23 overall but they will face the toughest amongst their divisional rivals; with Baltimore & Pittsburgh both coming off a season where they missed the playoffs, and Cleveland improving a ton not only with their on field play last year but their paper game this past offseason (sans the behavior of stud WR Josh Gordon) this could be the season the Bengals struggle & Marvin Lewis’ job is in danger. Their defense ranked #2 in my models last year but that was versus the 26th toughest schedule of opponent offenses – this year their opponent offenses will definitely be up a modest amount with the likes of New England & Denver (both of whom they did play last year), hungry Baltimore & Pittsburgh along with the NFC South juggernauts like Atlanta, New Orleans & Carolina.

Indianapolis Colts to 7 wins: Hard to argue with Indy’s success since the decision to let QB Peyton Manning walk away & draft QB Andrew Luck – the Colts have gone 11-5 & reached the playoffs in each of the last two seasons; the question is how much of that success was smoke & mirrors vs. statistically playing to a combined 22-10 mark? According to my models no team has overachieved as much in these last two years as Indy – and frankly it’s not very close. Last year they checked in at #16 in my performance rankings vs. the 17th toughest schedule – an exactly average team by both measurements, suggesting precisely an 8-8 team. Their 2014 schedule will be tough as outside their own division they will not have 1 truly “gimme” win facing Denver, New England, AFC North & NFC East. After not doing much of anything to improve their roster this past offseason, enjoying many lucky bounces over the last two years including last year’s playoff win against Kansas City and management in a bit of disarray with the personal problems their owner faced this offseason the Colts are ripe to dip in 2014.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
07/16/2014 02:40 AM

Turnover Analysis

July 9, 2014

NFL 2014 Turnover Margin Analysis

It’s Impact on the Outcomes of NFL Games: Part I

If you are a statistical analyzer, and break down numbers on NFL games with any sort of regularity, you know that Turnover Margin is an incredibly important statistic in the outcome of all games. Straight up, Against the Spread – doesn’t matter. Perform well in this area, be it taking care of the ball, or taking the ball away from your opponent on a regular basis, and the likelihood you are playing football come January greatly increases.

Most NFL fans, even the casual fan that doesn’t get too involved in breaking stats down is aware of this phenomenon. But how good a tool can it be to predict future outcomes, whether it be on a week to week basis trying to pick straight up winners in your office pool, picking a few games to wager your hard earned cash on, or even trying to predict the chances your team has at making the playoffs? It’s very useful, and below I will discuss various angles and ways to utilize this one stat in your handicapping efforts.

Initially let’s examine the relationship between turnovers, points scored vs. points against (which is a team’s points margin), and projected records based on those two stats.

Turnover Margin Analysis



ARI 3.44 0.00 3.44 10-6 10-6 - -

ATL (5.63) (1.25) (4.38) 4-12 5-11 (1) -

BAL (2.00) (1.25) (0.75) 8-8 8-8 - -

BUF (3.00) 0.75 (3.75) 6-10 6-10 - -

CAR 7.81 2.75 5.06 12-4 11-5 1 -

CHI (2.06) 1.25 (3.31) 8-8 6-10 2 CHI

CIN 7.81 0.25 7.56 11-5 12-4 (1) -

CLE (6.13) (2.00) (4.13) 4-12 6-10 (2) CLE

DAL 0.44 2.00 (1.56) 8-8 7-9 1 -

DEN 12.94 0.00 12.94 13-3 14-2 (1) -

DET 1.19 (3.00) 4.19 7-9 10-6 (3) DET

GB (0.69) (0.75) 0.06 8-7-1 8-8 - -

HOU (9.50) (5.00) (4.50) 2-14 5-11 (3) HOU

IND 3.44 3.25 0.19 11-5 8-8 3 IND

JAC (12.63) (1.50) (11.13) 4-12 3-13 1 -

KC 7.81 4.50 3.31 11-5 10-6 1 -

MIA (1.13) (0.50) (0.63) 8-8 8-8 - -

MIN (5.56) (3.00) (2.56) 5-10-1 6-10 - -
NE 6.63 1.75 4.88 12-4 11-5 1 -

NO 6.88 0.00 6.88 11-5 12-4 (1) -

NYG (5.56) (3.75) (1.81) 7-9 7-9 - -

NYJ (6.06) (3.50) (2.56) 8-8 6-10 2 NYJ

OAK (8.19) (2.00) (6.19) 4-12 5-11 (1) -

PHI 3.75 3.00 0.75 10-6 8-8 2 PHI

PIT 0.56 (1.00) 1.56 8-8 9-7 (1) -

SD 3.00 (1.00) 4.00 9-7 10-6 (1) -

SF 8.38 3.00 5.38 12-4 11-5 1 -

SEA 11.63 5.00 6.63 13-3 11-5 2 SEA

STL (1.00) 1.75 (2.75) 7-9 6-10 1 -

TB (6.31) 2.50 (8.81) 4-12 4-12 - -

TEN (1.19) 0.00 (1.19) 7-9 7-9 - -

WAS (9.00) (2.25) (6.75) 3-13 5-11 (2) WAS


Points Margin: Points scored – points allowed for 2013 regular season

Turnover Adv/(Dis): Represents the per game impact each team’s turnovers had on their points margin. This number is derived by taking the total Turnover Margin on the season, dividing by 16 to get a “per game” TO Margin, then multiplying by 4 (or whatever value you choose to place on turnovers – discussed below)

Norm Margin: Represents normalized margin & is calculated by taking Points Margin MINUS Turnover Adv/(Dis). This figure hypothetically represents what a team’s point’s margin would have been stripping out the impact turnovers had on it

Actual Record: Straight forward, each team’s true SU record for 2013 regular season

New Proj Record: Uses the Normalized Margin calculation, and fits each into the Points Margin Pythagorean Theory matrix. It is generally assumed that teams who on average outscore their opponents by 1.5 points per game (PPG) will go 9-7, 3 PPG 10-6, 5.5 PPG 11-5 and so on increasing ppg by 2.5 points for each win – and using the reciprocal of each of those marks for losing records. Note, since these figures are quoted in decimals & rounded, the sum of 255 wins does not equal 256, the amount we see in an entire NFL season if there are no ties.

Win Variance: Calculated by taking Actual Record MINUS New Projected Record.

Next big piece of this analysis is to explain how we valued the turnover. Most analysts who work with turnovers in their models will value these at approximately being worth 4 points.

Of course this number is not set in stone, and can be debated & supported at various “point” impacts – but for this analysis I will be using 4 points. In reality, any number you select within reason – the number has to be worth anywhere between a minimum of two points and a maximum five points because a turnover either way leads to the possibility of scoring or allowing points – working with estimated % chances of scoring/allowing a FG/TD will allow you to derive your own worth of a turnover; so long as you have support & utilize a consistent value for all teams your analysis will be sound.

By using that method of “valuing” turnovers, we can calculate a new point’s margin based on a team’s pure play performance – stripping away the advantage/disadvantage turnovers had on their point’s margin. This is a valuable way to place a barometer on how team’s truly performed, statistically speaking, in their games.

Now that we have explained all the data, here is where it gets useful. As mentioned, a “model” or any analysis is only good if you back-test it, and prove that it has worked in the past.

While any model may add value for a short period of time or even a year the ones that offer the best value & assistance in your handicapping efforts are those where you apply your theory for a minimum of 5 years back & check how significant its results are vs. actual results.

Especially in this day & age there are tons & tons of new statistics, analysts & bloggers publishing their work – but the biggest issue I see many have is information overload. Sure most of the new statistics & theories can help you predict outcomes of sporting events but you should attempt at mastering a small data set & metrics, knowing how to utilize those the best you can to handicap games; you do not want to be a jack of all trades / master of none – too many times I read on Twitter handicappers using tons of different analytics & metrics every other night – there is a such thing as information overload, which is where many people go wrong.

Remember my old saying – give me either side of any game & I can give you a write-up supporting that play….

Back to this analysis, let’s first focus on the teams that achieved a record in 2013 that was above and beyond their actual performance stripping the impact of turnovers. These team’s we forecast to drop in wins from 2013 to 2014 because as we know, turnovers typically, but not always, revert back to the mean – so a team’s performance that was positively impacted by a strong TO margin the prior season often flips in the very next season.

Numerous articles have been posted on this over the years & this has proven to be a solid leading indicator for the following season, barring IMPACT signings or SIGNIFICANT free agency defections.

For the 2014 season here are some teams we would be bearish on, i.e. those that are likely to win less than they did last season:

Chicago Bears
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks

Now let’s move onto the team’s that were negatively impacted by TO margin in 2013, which means we expect this group to have a stronger record in 2014 comparing to 2013:

Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
Washington Redskins

As I continually stress back-testing must be completed on any analysis to confirm its accuracy. We have done that the last few years with this analysis, but for ease let’s examine below which teams we expected to slide in the 2013 season vs. the 2012 season (posted here last summer):

Team’s that were likely to see a drop in their 2013 record went 3-1-1 as I show games won in 2012 vs. 2013 in parenthesis:

Atlanta Falcons (13 to 4): CORRECT
Houston Texans (12 to 2): CORRECT
Indianapolis Colts (11 to 11): SAME
Tennessee Titans (6 to 7): INCORRECT
Washington Redskins (10 to 3): CORRECT

Team’s that were likely to win at least one more game in 2013 vs. 2012 went 2-0-1 as change in wins is shown in parenthesis:

Detroit Lions (4 to 7): CORRECT
Kansas City Chiefs (2 to 11): CORRECT
Pittsburgh Steelers (8 to 8): SAME

In summary, using TOM’s impact on NFL Pythagorean Theory, heading into the:

2011 season there were 13 teams that were projected to slide up or down in wins – 10 moved the way we projected while 2 stayed the same; the only one that missed was SD who went from 9 to 8 wins & we forecasted a rise

2012 season there were 12 teams that were projected to slide up or down in wins – 10 moved the way projected while 2 slid opposite (SD again & PHI both were projected to drop but increased their wins vs. 2011)

2013 season there were 8 teams that were projected so slide up or down in wins – 5 moved the way projected while 2 stayed the same; the only one that missed was TEN who went from 6 to 7 & we forecasted a drop

SUMMARY: Over last three seasons we have projected 33 teams to shift their wins either up or down – only FOUR of those THIRTY THREE moved the opposite way (just 12%).

Going into the 2014 season we have nine teams projected to slide up or down in wins based on this initial look at TOM & Pythagorean Theory.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: