dietz Posts:263 Followers:1
On 05/01/2014 12:46 PM in General

Kentucky Derby 2014

And here we are once again a true sign of Spring time (other than pitchers and catchers reporting)........the Kentucky Derby.

Before I go into the write up let me say these are my opinions on the horses. If you have your own theory on horses follow them. Nothing worse then having your own ways and theories and then at the last minute you follow someone elses and yours wins. Just gut wrenching. Hopefully I can give you some input on the horses and then you can make your choice from there.

Kentucky Derby is CRAP SHOOT, but it is fun to watch and bet because of all the hype. You have 20 horses running in a race that are basically juvenile horses. These are only 3 year olds and with every race they run they gain experience and strength as they are still growing. Last year I really liked Will Take Charge. He was a huge horse, but it took 3 more races after the derby for him to grow into his massive frame, now he is one of the top horses in the country. You just don't know which horses are peaking and which have already peaked. We have front runners who have never had dirt in their faces when racing, they have had the perfect trip (s).. Many horses do not like that at all and tend to get worked up and skittish when it happens. I prefer closers and those who rate close to the top in past races. Again, experience counts in previous races. None the less, here we go in Post Position order.......

VICARS IN TROUBLE Post position 1 - The name could not be more right for this horse. Getting the 1st post position puts this horse in tons of trouble. This is an east coast horse and a front runner. Pretty much ran away with its last race, but that will not happen here. 1 1/4 for a front runner from post position 1 is just not happening.

Harry's Holiday Post position #2, another east coast horse. Broke Maiden back in September of 2013 at Churchill downs. His buyer figures are nothing compared to other horses in here. Do not see this horse being a factor in the race with this post position and his racing record. IGNORE

UNCLE SIGH Post Position 3 - I bought this horse to the forum back in February and he has made us money coming in the exotics several times. He has gone head to head with SAMRAAT at Aqeuduct but could never get by him. I don't see this horse getting by Samraat no less with 18 other horses to compete with. The trainer also goes with blinkers this time. Not a great show of support to try something new at the biggest race of the year. Post position makes it tough and new blinkers put up a red flag for me.

DANZA post position 4 - East coast horse who broke his maiden at Belmont in July of 2013. Monster closer. His last race (Arkansas Derby) he ran the same time as WILL TAKE CHARGE who ran the race before him on the same track.
Brakes his maiden in July at Belmont, one month later he runs in a Grade 2 at Saratoga and comes in 3rd. Horse takes 7 months off, comes back to an optional claiming race at Gulf Stream and comes in 3rd, a month later enters a grade 1 race and blows the doors off the field winning by 5 lengths over some horses that are in this race (This is the only horse to run all of his races on different tracks. Churchill will be his 5th career start and his 5th different track). Joe Bravo gets the mount and Joe Bravos horse was scratched last year just before the race. He was pissed and he will have a chip on his shoulder. This horse ran a 104 buyer last race, one of the top buyers in the field. I watched the Arkansas Derby over and over and this horse had 2 gears; one to pull away at top of the stretch and another when he got straightened out the lane. He drifted a bit when whipped, but once clear he kicked in and took off again. He had a perfect rail trip, but closing was impressive. They say this horse put on 3 lbs. since the last race and is built like a linebacker (put it in sportsman terms). Some may have concerns of a bounce here and rightfully so..... he went from an 87 to 104- that is 17 point increase....INSANE, but if you look at his history, he ran a 99 his second race........7 months later he runs an 87 his next race out and that was definitely a prep race for the next race out....and next race out he runs 104. A bounce here is less likely as the horse already had the potential with a near 100 already.
Major player.

CALIFORNIA CHROME Post position 5 - West Coast horse, front runner with monster monster numbers. Top buyer figures of 102-106. Has won his past 4 races by a combined 24 lengths and was under a hand ride his last race for the last 1/8 mile. This horse could be a freak of nature and deserves to be the odds on favorite for the race. May go off at 2-1. The last horse to go off at those odds was BIG BROWN and he won the Derby. He has 10 races under his belt so his experience is way up compared to others ( Danzas 5th race). My only knocks on this horse are...not the best horse to get out of the gate, and he has never traveled. His first travel trip is coast to coast and he has no training on the track. He will jog, but not train on the Chruchill surface. We wont know how the horse takes to the track. Still- major contender!!!!!!!!!

SAMRAAT Post position 6 - East Coast horse who won 5 races in a row and came in second in the Wood Memorial to WICKED STRONG. 6 starts, 5 wins, 1 second and consistent buyer figure of 99 past 4 races. His last race was nice cause he was still driving at the 1/8 pole which is impressive for a front running horse. I cant knock the horse at all, if it is ready to take the next step and moves off the 99 buyer he is in the race.

WE MISS ARTIE - Post position 7 - West coast horse who is more of a turf specialist/synthetic runner than dirt. Pletcher is the trainer and he has even said openly, he is more of a turf horse than a dirt horse and should really not be in the race. The owner is Ken Ramsey who I used to like as an owner. He over ruled Pletcher and said run him in the race.
I really really don't see this horse doing much. IF the trainer is not into the horse, how can I get into him.

GENERAL A-ROD Post position 8 - East Coast horse who broke his maiden in October of 2013 (late). Has 5 races under his belt and one buyer of 100 in Fountain of Youth. He is a front runner who will have to carry pace 1 1/4 miles. Tough to do in a race like this.

VINCEREMOS - Post Position 9 - East coast horse who broke his maiden in January of 2014 (VERY LATE).
Has 5 races under his belt including a grade 1 Blue Grass where he came in 4th. Buyers are low with 93-92 on his best races. Do not think that is enough to get this horse in the mix with these others.

WILDCAT RED - Post position 10 - East Coast horse who broke his maiden in September of 2013. Has 7 races under his belt with a nice 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. His buyers have been consistent with 97-100-97 against solid competition. All races have been at Gulf Stream park which is good cause they were all on dirt. Front runner and front running at 1 /1/4 is again, not good for this race. He would have to hang on ALOT to hold off some others in this race.

HOPPORTUNITY Post position 11 - JUST SCRATCHED AS I AM WRITING THIS!! A horse that was considered a major contender is out with a shin injury.

DANCE WITH FATE Post position 12 - West Coast horse who broke his maiden in August of 2013. Seems to be more of a synthetic/turf horse with 5 of 6 being in the money on those surfaces. 0 for 2 on dirt.. Is a closer with nice late kick. This seems to be a pick of many horse people and is training well at the Chruchill downs track according to reports. Dirt buyers are very low..82-85. Honestly a hard horse to get a read on. could be a factor.

- Post position 13 - West coast horse with blazing opening speed. Could be in front early and for a while, but again 1 1/4 is too long for this horse. Broke his maiden in December of 2103 (late). Very young 3 year old with only 4 races under his belt. Preakness may be more of his race. Too long of a race for a front runner with his speed.

MEDAL COUNT - Post position 14 - East coast horse who broke maiden in September of 2013. Has some nice races under him with 7 and a nice second in the Blue Grass, but his best races have been on synthetic/turf. His dirt races are not impressive. Hard pressed to pick this horse to win against this type of talent.

TAPITURE Post position 15- East coast horse who took 3 races to brake his maiden in late November at Churchill downs. Very consistent buyers of 99-96-95. Has some good races under his belt with many horse in this race. Likes the dirt as he has only run on dirt. Is a mid pack runner who tends to rate with the pack. Interesting horse; could graduate and hit buyer of 100+ if so, has what it takes to be there in the end. Could be exotic horse now that Hopportunty is out. INTERESTING.

INTENSE HOLIDAY Post position 16 - East Coast horse who broke his maiden in August of 2013 at Monmouth. Has nice 7 races under his belt with consistent increase in buyers of 80-91-99-100. Key aspect as I mentioned earlier: horses learn from each and every race and tend to get better and stronger. If that is the case here, he is improving at the right time. Been in the money past 3 races with most of the horses being in this race. Been on 5 different tracks in 7 races - all of which are dirt.
This horse is the talk of the back stretch at Churchill this week with his training sessions. Everyone in impressed. KEY HORSE.

COMMANDING CURVE Post position 17 - East coast horse who broke his maiden on this very track in November of 2013. Took 4 tries to brake his maiden and then next race is a grade 2 against several horses in this race. Last race he got pinched out of the gate and placed last ,but had an outstanding late kick in the stretch. Ran the last part of his last race in the same time as Danza. Vicars in Trouble won that race as she went wire to wire, no way of catching that horse that day especially with the poor start. Buyer was a 98 and if experience comes in and he improves of the 98..........could be interesting. This horse needed a few scratches to get in and he did. The trainer came in second last year with a 41-1 shot. He is excited to have this horse in the race.
Post position 17 has never had a winner in the derby. Is it over due? LOL

CANDY BOY Post position 18 - West coast horse who broke his maiden on 4th try at Hollywood Park. Has a nice closing kick with a rating kind of style. Came in 3rd to Hopportunity and winner California Chrome last race out with a buyer of 96.
Past 5 races has never been out of the money and 3 of those were graded stakes races including 2 grade 1's. one was on synthetic track. will have to improve to make a winner. Exotics are not lost with this.

Post position 19 - East coast horse who broke his maiden in July of 2013. One of the most experienced horses in the field with 9 races under him including 4 stakes races. This horse has never stopped running. has been in the money in every race but 1 when he came in 4th and that was after he broke his maiden and entered a grade 3 race going up against horses in this race. Calving Borel hops on board for the mount and he rode this horse 5 times prior. has nice buyers of 87-98-99 last 3 races.
have to use this horse is triple and super exotics. Whether he can win is interesting because he has the jockey and the stamina.

WICKED STRONG Post position 20 - East coast horse who broke his maiden in October of 2013. This may be second choice come post time and may be bet down to 5-1 with HOPPORTUNITY being out. He has tremendous closing kick as he displayed in his last race, Wood Memorial. Hit a buyer of 103. very impressive, one of only 4 horses to hit triple digits in the buyer figures in the entire field. A repeat puts him in the mix as possible winner. Only concern is the bounce.....he runs a 82- 80-89-103.
He jumps 14 points in his last race after never showing any late kick prior races. Did he wake up and realize he is horse or did he peak and ran the race of his life time? To be honest, I liked this horse at first, but looking at it more and more that is a tremendous feat that horse did his last race and would be shocked if he did it again especially from the 20th post position.

sharpsquare Posts:3189 Followers:5
05/01/2014 02:02 PM

Always great to get your thoughts on the race dietz , thanks for posting !

dietz Posts:263 Followers:1
05/01/2014 02:32 PM

Thanks Sharpsquare........ I do enjoy the ponies. I hope I can shed some light on those who are not that familiar with horses and maybe make some cash.