cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/08/2011 11:00 PM


Following is a quick team-by-team look at recent NFL pointspread and "totals" trends through last weekend.

Arizona...Cards have covered a couple of times on the road this season, but their extended spread marks as a visitor are still subpar (4-11 last 15 away since late 2009). Arizona has been a reliable "over" play for the past six years, posting a 66-42 "over" mark since 2005 (16-9-1 last 26 since late 2009). Atlanta...Falcons stirring in recent weeks with three straight covers. Despite dropping first three vs. line on road this season, Atlanta still 11-5 vs. spread as visitor since middle of 2009 campaign. Baltimore...Although Ravens are unbeaten straight up in four outings as host in 2011 (3-1 vs. line in those games), Baltimore has been decidedly average against the number at home since early in the 2009 campaign, covering only half of its 18 games on the board as host. They've fared well, however, in recent games vs. AFC North rival Cleveland (Ravens 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line against Brownies since 2008; next meeting Dec. 4). Buffalo...Bills only 4-7 vs. spread in Orchard Park since HC Chan Gailey arrived last season. They have covered 7 of their last 9 as a road dog since early last season, however.

Carolina...Panthers showing a bit more life since rookie QB Cam Newton arrived on scene, now "over" 5-3 halfway thru 2011 campaign after going "under" 15-7-1 previous 23 at the end of the John Fox regime. "Cam-o-lina" has also covered 4 of its last five as a dog this season and is 6-1 vs. the spread its last seven vs. Saints (next meeting Jan. 1). Chicago...Bears trending "under" (28-19-2 last 49 prior to Eagles Monday) since midway in 2008 campaign, especially on road (8-1-2 "under" last 11 away from Solider Field before Philly). Cincinnati...Bengals a revelation in first half of 2011 and have won and covered their last five, also 7-1 vs. spread their first eight in 2011. But Cincy still just 2-10 as Paul Brown Stadium chalk since 2009 (1-1 in 2011). Cincy also "over" 4-0-1 away this season. Cleveland...Browns on an extended pointspread funk, just 2-14 vs. line last sixteen since mid 2010.

Dallas...Cowboys are 6-1 as a dog since HC Jason Garrett relieved Wade Phillips of duties last season. But they're also 2-8 as a home favorite since 2010 (2-4 in role for Garrett). Dallas "under" last 4 in 2011 after "over" 16-4 in 20 games prior. Denver...Broncos are "over" 23-7 since late in the 2009 campaign. Denver also hasn't covered at home in four tries this season and is just 3-11 vs. spread its last 14 as host. Detroit...Lions 18-5-1 vs. spread since beginning of 2010 campaign, and 8-1-1 last ten away fro Ford Field. They're also "over" 6-0-1 their last seven on road. Green Bay...Packers 14-0 SU and 11-3 vs. spread last 14 since late 2010, as well as 8-2 vs. spread mark last ten away from home.

Houston...Texans "under" 6-3 this season since arrival of d.c. Wade Phillips (and two of those "overs" were very narrowly so). Houston also 5-1 vs. spread last six at Reliant Stadium, although they're just 3-7 vs. the number their last ten away (2-2 in 2011). Indianapolis...Sagging Colts 0-9 SU and 2-7 vs. line this season minus Peyton Manning. Who said Indy was a one-man team? Jacksonville...Low-scoring Jags "under" 7-1 this season after "over" 12-5 previous 17 games. Kansas City...Chiefs' recent 5-game cover streak ended last week by Miami. KC also "under" 7-2-1 last 10 at Arrowhead.

Miami...Dolphins continue "inside-out" spread form under HC Tony Sparano, now 20-8 vs. spread last 28 away since early 2008, with no covers last seven or 19 of last 24 at Sun Life Stadium. Dolphins also "over" 13-6 last 19 at home, while "under" last five and 11 of last 13 away. Minnesota...Vikings "over" 7-2 last nine as host. New England...Patriots were "over" 20-4 in 24-game stretch until mid-October when they began current three-game "under" run. New Orleans...Saints have been formful in 2011, covering all four at Superdome and dropping four of five vs. line on road. New Orleans just 2-8 vs. number last 10 away from Superdome. Note Saints have bounced back with covers after first three SU losses in 2011.

NY Giants...Tom Coughlin is 23-7 vs. number his last 30 as an underdog dating to early 2006. NY Jets...Rex Ryan's bunch surprisingly "over" 23-9 its last 32 games since late in the 2009 campaign. Jets on mild uptick at moment with thee straight wins and covers after last week's win over Bills. Oakland...Raiders have covered first three tries as a road underdog this season and are 7-3 vs. line their last ten in role. Oakland also 7-2 SU and vs. line last nine vs. AFC West foes since 2010 (though no covers last two TY after Denver loss). Philadelphia...Andy Reid just 4-7 his last 11 as Linc chalk since late in 2009 campaign. Birds have also just covered 5 of their last 13 at home entering last Monday's game vs. Bears. File this away for next year, but Reid also now 13-0 SU after bye weeks since taking assuming Philly job in 1999. Eagles also "under" 6-2 last eight at home.

Pittsburgh...Steelers 10-5 vs. spread at Heinz Field since 2010. Once-pronounced "over" trend at home has flattened lately (now 9-7 "under" last 16 as host). Steelers also 6-0 vs. number off a SU loss since last season. San Diego...Chargers 3-8 their last 11 as road chalk since late in the 2009 season, with two of those covers against outmanned Denver. San Francisco...Maybe the NFL's top storyline of 2011, with 49ers 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 vs. spread for first-year HC Jim Harbaugh. San Francisco is also 14-5-3 vs. spread at Candlestick Park since midway in the 2008 season (post-Mike Nolan). Seattle...Pete Carroll has quietly covered 5 of his last 6 in 2011. Seahawks also 8-4 vs. spread at newly-renamed Century Link Field since Carroll arrived in 2010, and "over" 8-3 last 11 as host.

St. Louis...Rams recently broke a 7-game spread losing streak that extended to the end of the 2010 season. Rams also "under" 5-0-1 last six away and "under" 9-4 last 13 overall. Tampa Bay...Bucs have covered 2 of first 4 at home this season, but please note 5-17-1 mark vs. line last 23 at Raymond James Stadium since late in the 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay also no covers last three away this season after covering 10 of its previous 11 on road. Tennessee...Titans 2-6 vs. spread their last 8 away from Nashville. Tennessee also just 2-5 its last 7 as chalk. Washington...Skins sinking with no wins or covers last four in 2011. They're also "under" 6-2 this season and "under" 12-3 their last 15 since midway in the 2010 campaign. Washington, however, has covered 6 of last 7 vs. hated Dallas after late September Monday cover at Arlington; Skins see Cowboys next Nov. 20.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:30 PM

Trending: NFL betting in November

As we have a habit of doing when we turn the calendars to a new month, we took a look at how all 32 teams have fared both ATS and Over/Under in the month of November over the last five seasons. We also broke things down to find the best and worst home teams and road teams ATS and the teams with the highest Over and Under percentages at home and on the road in this span.
Interestingly, for overall ATS win percentage in November over the past five seasons, it’s the annual Thanksgiving participants who appear at the very top and very bottom of the list. The Dallas Cowboys lead the way at 73%, while the Detroit Lions are bringing up the rear at 25%. Here is the complete list:

ATS Records in November (2006-2010)

Team ATS Pct.
Dallas 16-6 73%
Tampa Bay 12-6 67%
San Francisco 12-7 63%
Green Bay 12-8 60%
San Diego 12-8 60%
Buffalo 11-8 58%
New York Jets 11-8 58%
Tennessee 11-8 58%
Cleveland 11-9 55%
New Orleans 11-9 55%
Atlanta 12-10 55%
Kansas City 11-10 52%
Miami 11-10 52%
Indianapolis 11-11 50%
Chicago 10-10 50%
Houston 10-10 50%
Jacksonville 10-10 50%
Minnesota 10-10 50%
Baltimore 11-12 48%
Cincinnati 10-11 48%
Philadelphia 10-11 48%
St. Louis 9-10 47%
Arizona 9-11 45%
New England 9-11 45%
Oakland 9-11 45%
Pittsburgh 9-12 43%
Washington 7-10 41%
Carolina 8-12 40%
Denver 8-13 38%
Seattle 8-13 38%
New York Giants 7-13 35%
Detroit 5-15 25%

Best Home ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
Dallas 10-2 83%
Green Bay 5-3 63%
Tampa Bay 5-3 63%
Tennessee 5-3 63%

Worst Home ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
New England 2-8 20%
New York Giants 2-8 20%
Detroit 3-11 21%
Indianapolis 3-9 25%
Houston 2-5 29%

Best Road ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
Indianapolis 8-2 80%
Cleveland 7-2 78%
San Diego 7-2 78%
New England 7-3 70%
San Francisco 7-3 70%
Tampa Bay 7-3 70%

Worst Road ATS Records
Team ATS Pct.
Detroit 2-4 33%
Seattle 4-7 36%
Baltimore 5-7 42%
Denver 5-7 42%

TOTALS in November (2006-2010)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the leaders when it comes to hitting the OVER, doing so in 68% of their November games from 2006-2010. The Oakland Raiders have been the most consistent UNDER (74%). Here is how the entire league stacks up:
Team O-U Pct. Over
Jacksonville 13-6 68%
Philadelphia 13-7 65%
Cleveland 13-8 62%
New York Giants 12-8 60%
Detroit 13-9 59%
Dallas 13-9 59%
Pittsburgh 12-9 57%
Green Bay 12-9 57%
Arizona 12-9 57%
Baltimore 13-10 57%
New York Jets 10-8 56%
Minnesota 11-9 55%
Kansas City 11-9 55%
Seattle 12-10 55%
Tampa Bay 10-9 53%
New England 10-9 53%
Denver 11-10 52%
St. Louis 9-9 50%
New Orleans 10-10 50%
Atlanta 11-11 50%
Buffalo 10-11 48%
Washington 9-10 47%
San Diego 9-10 47%
Tennessee 9-11 45%
Cincinnati 9-11 45%
Carolina 9-11 45%
Houston 8-11 42%
Miami 8-13 38%
Chicago 8-13 38%
San Francisco 7-12 37%
Indianapolis 8-14 36%
Oakland 5-14 26%

Highest Home OVER Pct.
Team O-U Pct. Over
New York Giants 8-2 80%
Arizona 7-3 70%
Jacksonville 7-4 64%
Minnesota 7-4 64%
Pittsburgh 7-4 64%

Highest Home UNDER Pct.
Team U-O Pct. Under
Indianapolis 8-3 73%
Carolina 6-3 67%
Oakland 6-3 67%
San Francisco 6-3 67%
St. Louis 6-3 67%

Highest Road OVER Pct.
Team O-U Pct. Over
Baltimore 9-3 75%
Jacksonville 6-2 75%
Philadelphia 7-3 70%
Cleveland 6-3 67%
St. Louis 6-3 67%

Highest Road UNDER Pct.
Team U-O Pct. Under
Oakland 8-2 80%
Chicago 9-3 75%
Houston 8-4 67%
Miami 8-4 67%

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:32 PM

Trending: NFL Thursday games

Since the start of the 2003 season, there have been 54 regular season games played on Thursdays. In addition to the late season Thursday night contests, this study also includes the annual Thursday night season openers and all Thanksgiving Day contests.
Home teams hold a decisive edge at 31-21-2 ATS (60%), while the Under has a slight advantage (28-25-1, 53%) in these games. Further investigation reveals a number of high-percentage trends:

All favorites are 38-14 ATS (73%).

Home favorites are 25-8 ATS (76%).

Road favorites are 13-6 ATS (68%).

The success rate of home favorites increases with the size of the point spread:
Home favorites of more than 3 points are 17-3 ATS (85%).

Home favorites of 7 points or more are 13-1 ATS (93%).

Home favorites of 10 points or more are a perfect 7-0 ATS.

Road favorites of 7 points or more are 5-1 ATS (83%).

All favorites of 7 points or more, home or road, are 18-2 ATS (90%).

All double-digit favorites, home or road, are 10-1 ATS (91%).

The Under is 7-2 (78%) in games in which the home team is favored by 9 points or more.

The Under is 12-6 (67%) in games in which the total is less than 41.

AFC teams are 13-5 ATS (72%) vs. NFC teams.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:34 PM

Week 10 Preview: Steelers at Bengals



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 41.5

The Steelers try to bounce back from their last-minute loss to Baltimore in Week 9, but it won’t be easy going on the road to face a Cincinnati team with five straight victories.

The Bengals have ridden an easy early-season schedule into playoff contention, as Pittsburgh will be their toughest game yet. The Steelers nearly let one slip away in Cincinnati on a Monday night last year, holding on for a 27-21 win. Their defense has re-emerged, but the potential absence of star linebackers James Farrior (calf) and LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) will make improving rookie QB Andy Dalton feel much more comfortable in the pocket. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS against AFC opponents this year and have avoided letdowns recently, going 8-1 ATS following an SU win over the past two seasons. The pick here is home dog CINCINNATI to keep its win streak alive.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Bengals:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (40-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 2*).

The Steelers are 16-4 SU (15-5 ATS) in the past 20 meetings with Cincinnati. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has been playing some of the best football of his career, ranking third in the NFL in passing yards (2,632) with 14 TD and 5 INT in eight games since Week 1. But he has not been great against the Bengals, throwing just 17 TD with 14 INT in 14 career games against them. The Steelers usually have a reliable ground game, but this year has been anything but. The team ranks 19th in the league in rushing offense (110 YPG), and that number has dipped to 86.3 rushing YPG over the past three weeks. Rashard Mendenhall has a paltry 154 yards on 39 carries (3.9 YPC) during this stretch, but rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown in his only career game in Cincinnati last year.

Despite the gaggle of defensive injuries, Pittsburgh has the league’s third-best pass defense (185 YPG) and has allowed just 183 rushing yards (61 YPG) in the past three games, improving its league rank to sixth (96 rush YPG). But the usually opportunistic defense has forced just four turnovers in nine games this season.

This lack of takeaways is good news for Cincinnati rookie QB Andy Dalton, who is coming off a tremendous game against Tennessee. He tossed 3 TD and completed at least two passes to six different receivers. Another rookie that is also having an enormous season is WR A.J. Green. He has 405 receiving yards in the past five games and has found the end zone in five of eight games this year. Leading rusher Cedric Benson has found little room to run against the Steelers recently, gaining just 95 yards (2.9 YPC) in the past three meetings. Cincy’s offense ranks 21st in the league in both passing (212 YPG) and rushing (104 YPG), but it has a +5 turnover margin in its past four games.

Cincinnati, which leads the AFC with an ATS record of 7-1, has faced an incredibly weak crop of quarterbacks so far, none better than Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. And the opponents during the five-game win streak are a combined 13-28 SU (31.7%) this season. However, the defense has been much better than anybody could’ve imagined, especially against the run. The Bengals have allowed only one team to rush for triple-digits this year, limiting the past six opponents to an average of 77 rushing YPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:36 PM

Week 10 Preview: Bills at Cowboys



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -5.5, Total: 48

Two of the more inconsistent teams in the NFL square off Sunday in Big D, when the Cowboys host the Bills.

Buffalo has neither won nor lost two straight games in its past six contests, while Dallas has alternated wins and losses in the past four games. This will be an interesting chess match between Bills head coach Chan Gailey and his spread offense against Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and his multi-look defense. The Bills have shown the ability to move the ball in a variety of ways this year, and the Cowboys secondary can struggle, but Dallas also has a better pass rush than Buffalo’s overachieving line has seen all year. The Cowboys have employed a much more conservative offense this year, though the Bills typically don’t give up many big pass plays. They are susceptible to the run, something Dallas has done better in recent weeks. The Cowboys are just not a strong pick as a favorite, going 1-3-1 ATS when giving points this season. Dallas will probably find a way to eke out a win, but the pick here is BUFFALO to cover the spread.

This FoxSheets trend further shows the Cowboys’ futility when favored:

DALLAS is 2-11 ATS (15.4%, -10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 24.7, OPPONENT 23.8 - (Rating = 2*).

The Bills offense had 287 total yards and three turnovers in last week’s loss to the Jets. But they have generally been effective in 2011, ranking tied for 4th in the NFL in points (27.8 PPG) and a respectable 12th in total yards (345 YPG). RB Fred Jackson leads the AFC in rushing (803 yards) on 5.4 YPC, and has also caught 30 passes for another 391 yards. He suffered a stinger last week, but is still expected to start on Sunday. Jackson has 17 gains of 20+ yards this year and has fumbled just once in his 180 touches. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has cooled off a bit since his crazy start to the year, but his season stats of 234 passing YPG, 15 TD and 9 INT is certainly above average.

But the Buffalo defense has been below average, placing 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (260 YPG) and ranking 20th against the rush (121 YPG). The absence of monster NT Kyle Williams (foot) has been noticeable, and Williams may not return for this game either.

The Cowboys are finally starting to achieve proper balance on offense, racking up 442 yards (279 passing, 163 rushing) against Seattle last week. Much of this balance can be attributed to rookie RB DeMarco Murray, who has 466 yards on a whopping 7.2 YPC in his past three games since taking over for the injured Felix Jones. Murray will need to have another big afternoon, considering the team’s top wideout, Miles Austin, is injured again, out 2-to-4 weeks with a hamstring injury. This should allow Dez Bryant (26 rec, 443 yds, 4 TD) to receive more targets from Tony Romo. The Cowboys QB has cut down his mistakes in the past three weeks, throwing just one pick and 5 TD over this span.

Defensively, Dallas has been tough against the run (102 YPG, 10th in NFL), but mediocre in terms of passing defense (233 YPG, 16th in league). Starting CB Mike Jenkins has been dealing with a hamstring injury and is doubtful to play in this game. Dallas has forced nine turnovers in the past four weeks and Buffalo has eight giveaways over this span.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:37 PM

Week 10 Preview: Saints at Falcons



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -1, Total: 51.5

The top spot in the NFC South is up for grabs when the streaking Falcons host the Saints on Sunday.

Atlanta has come on strong in recent weeks, outscoring opponents 85-40 during a three-game win streak. RB Michael Turner has 332 of his team’s 458 rushing yards and three touchdowns during this win streak and has had recent success against New Orleans too. In the past three meetings in this series, all won by the road team, Turner has rumbled for 313 yards and 2 TD. The Saints have allowed 701 rushing yards (140 YPG) in the past five games, so they certainly have their work cut out for them in slowing down Turner. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS (2-3 SU) on the road this year, while the Falcons are 13-6 ATS (68%) in regular-season games at the Georgia Dome since the start of 2009. The pick here is ATLANTA.These two FoxSheets trends also back the Falcons:

Mike Smith is 28-13 ATS (68.3%, +13.7 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of ATLANTA. The average score was ATLANTA 25.0, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 2*).

NEW ORLEANS is 1-8 ATS (11.1%, -7.8 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 26.7, OPPONENT 25.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Matt Ryan hasn’t been particularly sharp this season (12 TD, 9 INT), but he’s coming off a tremendous game against the Colts, throwing for 275 yards and 3 TD with a strong 11.46 YPA. He’s also been solid against the Saints, throwing for 246 YPG, 7 TD and 4 INT in five career meetings. WR Julio Jones continues his stellar rookie campaign with 131 receiving yards and two touchdowns (80 yards and 50 yards) last week. The one player that has struggled in this offense is star WR Roddy White. After gaining 1,389 receiving yards (87 per game) last season, White has only 501 yards in the first half of 2011, reaching 80 yards in a game just once back in Week 3. The Saints held him to a season-low three catches and 43 yards when these teams met last December.

Atlanta has shown great improvement on the defensive end in recent weeks, holding its past three opponents to 272 total YPG and opposing QBs to a 53% completion rate. The Falcons’ run-stop unit ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing defense (97 YPG) and held New Orleans to 115 rushing yards on 40 carries (2.9 YPC) in the two meetings last year.

Drew Brees leads the NFL with 334 passing YPG and trails only Aaron Rodgers for the league lead in QB rating (100.6). However, Brees also ranks second in the NFL in interceptions (11), trailing only Philip Rivers from San Diego. Brees has had little trouble with Atlanta’s pass defense over the years. He has won eight of 11 career meetings against the Falcons, throwing for 294 YPG, 21 TD and 10 INT against them. Although TE Jimmy Graham (55 rec, 791 yds, 5 TD) leads the team in all receiving categories by a wide margin, five other Saints have at least 25 catches so far. Rookie RB Mark Ingram has had his moments this year, but his YPC average is a subpar 3.8 and he could miss his third straight game because of a heel injury.

The defense also has two major injury concerns on defense, as both LB Jonathan Vilma (knee) and CB Tracy Porter (neck) are questionable for this game. For the season, New Orleans ranks 14th in passing defense (228 YPG) and 17th against the rush (120 YPG). Although the Saints allowed 365 total yards to Tampa Bat last week, they had allowed only 288 YPG in the previous two weeks.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:39 PM

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Our NFL Bottom 5, top 8.........

32) Colts—9 down, 7 to go, and then they can decide whether to trade the #1 pick, trade Peyton Manning, or let him and Andrew Luck try and co-exist. Will be an interesting decision, if it comes to that.

31) Rams-- Inexcusable loss in Arizona Sunday makes them 9-31 in Year 3 of the Spagnuolo Era, which needs to end soon. He’s a terrific defensive coordinator, overmatched as a head coach. In related news, Jeff Fisher is currently unemployed. Look for the Eagles to scoop Spags up as soon as the Rams fire him. He'll improve their defense a lot.

30) Redskins—Daniel Snyder must love owning this generation’s version of the ’76 Buccaneers. If I wasn’t lazy, I’d look up Mike Shanahan’s coaching record with/without John Elway playing. Its not pretty.

29) Panthers— They’re fun to watch but still 2-6. Coaching staff has shown a knack for butchering game management, which should be the easiest part of the job. Of course, if Mare hadn’t snap-hooked field goal at end of the Minnesota game, they’re not on this list.

28) Vikings—I grew up rooting for the Los Angeles Rams, who lost more than one outdoor playoff game in the frigid Minnesota winter (one of them ruined my 10th birthday). There is no way on God’s green earth I want the Vikings moving to LA, so people of Minnesota, vote that new stadium in. Keep your hideous Vikings.

8) Lions—Monsters of Motor City visit Monsters of Midway this week, trying to sweep the Bears.

7) Texans—Wait until you see this offense when Andre Johnson gets healthy. Sleeper team for AFC champs.

6) Steelers—You cannot let Joe Flacco drive 92 yards to beat you on your home field. Bad omen.

5) 49ers-- +12 in turnovers, which means they’re playing great defense and are taking advantage of the breaks they’re getting.

4) Giants—Would it kill them to let Eli Manning run no-huddle offense the whole game?

3) Ravens—Great football teams have talent scouts who find players like that Smith kid at WR, and GMs smart enough to draft/sign them.

2) Saints—Throwback uniforms are cool because they’ve never changed their helmets; same ones Charlton Heston wore in a football movie in the late 60’s, when he played a fading QB at the end of his career.

1) Packers—When their defense scores, they’re pretty scary.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:41 PM

NFL odds: Week 10 opening line report

“It’s on to the Evil Empire.”

Thus Jets linebacker Calvin Pace ushered in an appetizing Week 10, perhaps the best slate of games all season.

Division leads are on the line in Patriots-Jets, Saints-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals and Raiders-Chargers. There’s a cross-country matchup of teams with a combined 13-3 record (Giants-Niners). No teams are off.

The wait for Week 10 is only three days long, with San Diego hosting Oakland on Thursday. Sunday brings 10 early games.

“That gets a day jumpstarted the right way,” said Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace senior race and sports analyst.

The buildup for Pats-Jets started immediately after New York won its third straight, dominating the Bills 27-11.

“It’s still a two-team race,” Pace told the New York Post. “It’s still just the Jets and Patriots. [The Bills are] doing well, but sometimes the spotlight is big. I think the Jets and the Patriots can handle that spotlight. We control our own destiny.”

With the Pats on a two-game slide and looking ordinary offensively, books opened the Sunday night showdown at Jets -1. A month ago New England laid 7.5 against the visiting Jets.

“You hate to use the word overrated but in this case it fits: New England is not a great team and it’s starting to show,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations at Lucky’s sportsbook. “The armor is starting to get chinked. The Jets are playing better. They’re in a better mental state.

“But if it closed at Jets -1 or Patriots -1, it wouldn’t surprise me.”

Wynn sportsbook manager John Avello said the last three weeks have shown the Pats’ vulnerability.

“New England’s offense has slowed down and the Jets look like they’re back on track,” Avello said. “One team is heading north and one team seems to be going south.”

The Patriots haven’t scored more than 20 points since beating the Jets 30-21 on Oct. 9. They lack explosiveness at wide receiver and running back.

If Tom Brady is less than perfect, it’s hard for New England to overcome its shoddy defense.

“I wasn’t high on them at the beginning of the year,” Fuhrman said. “I don’t see this as an aberration.”

Another near tossup game will be played in the Georgia Dome, where Atlanta (5-3) hosts New Orleans (6-3) for NFC West supremacy. Bettors believe the Saints are better, but the Falcons rarely lose at home.

New Orleans opened as a 1-point favorite.

“Matt Ryan’s track record at the Georgia Dome speaks for itself,” Fuhrman said, referring to Ryan losing just three regular-season home games since entering the league in 2008. “And when you talk about divisional rivals, it’s important for these teams to hold serve. The home team has the added sense of urgency.”

The Steelers, coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Baltimore, visit 6-2 Cincy as 3-point favorites. The Bengals probably need to win to keep pace with 6-2 Baltimore, which visits 2-6 Seattle.

Bettors expect Bengals QB Andy Dalton to finally play like a rookie. He hasn’t yet.

“A rookie QB making zero mistakes so far?” Avello said. “Their schedule has been soft. Now he goes against one of the top-rated defenses. This is the week you can prove you’re a contender, or not.”


Arizona at Philadelphia (-16, 47), Minnesota at Green Bay (-13.5, 51)

The Cardinals played well in their last trip east, nearly upsetting Baltimore as 12-point underdogs. Still, they’re just 3-7 ATS as road dogs since last year.

Coming off a bye, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS since rookie QB Christian Ponder took over. They lost 33-27 at home to the Pack three weeks ago as 10-point dogs.


New Orleans at Atlanta (1, 50.5), New England at New York (-1, 47.5), St. Louis at Cleveland (-1.5, 37.5)

You almost have to bet on Rams-Browns to watch it, unless you’re a fan or either team or an interested fantasy owner. Cleveland is 0-4-2 as a home favorite since last year.


Minnesota at Green Bay (-13.5, 51), New Orleans at Atlanta (1, 50.5)

Packers’ games have averaged 56.8 points this season. Aaron Rodgers is on pace to throw for 5,238 yards and 48 touchdowns.

Since 2009, the over is just 3-12 in New Orleans’ division games.


Jacksonville at Indianapolis (3, 37.5), St. Louis at Cleveland (-1.5, 37.5), Washington at Miami (-3.5, 37.5)

Matt Moore is playing the best of any QB in this trio of games. That tells you something.

Six of Washington’s last seven games have gone under.

Jacksonville has played seven unders in eight games, with the total going under by an average of 7.3 points.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:42 PM

NFL Week 9 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

The Dolfan contingent want the “Suck for Luck” campaign to continue. The players aren’t obliging.

The Dolphins weren’t going to let this one slip away. Hell, they didn’t even let K.C. score after the field goal in the first.

I’m not surprised Miami got its first win. The Chiefs were coming off an emotional week with short rest and prep. I’m just surprised how efficient the win was. And to think all it took was a football fired at the face of Vontae Davis. Nothing like teammate-on-teammate violence to bring a locker room together.

Chalk it up as another one of those stories bettors would have loved to know all the juicy details about before kickoff, right fellas?

Chad Henne’s injury was a blessing in disguise. There’s not a doubt in my mind that Matt Moore is better than Checkdown Chad.

If the Dolphins don’t win the Luck sweepstakes then they’ve got a competent quarterback in house. Miami’s protection hasn’t been good this season but Moore has mobility to elude pressure. His passing improves as chemistry with his teammates improves.

And who would’ve guessed, Reggie Bush is finally pulling the weight of that contract. He’s looked more determined the last two weeks than he’s looked the last two years. When Daniel Thomas is back to full health this will be a solid one-two, power-speed punch.

This team hasn’t been discouraged by the tough losses. It hasn’t been distracted by the tanking talk. Tony “Da Godfadda” Sparano has these guys competing every week, and they’re getting better by the week.

I’m guessing there’s going to be value with the Phins until they get a few more wins. Anyone else ready to ride the aqua wave?

Overtime killer

When you’ve got points in your pocket heading to overtime, the percentages are in your favor.

But they didn’t play out two weeks ago for USC backers. And if you were holding a field goal with the Rams, you were left holding nothing but frustration after that debacle.

The punt sailed through the air and Peterson drifted back. The five, the four, the three…surely he’s not going to try and return this. This isn’t LSU son. You put your foot on the five and don’t catch the ball if you take one step back.

Apparently Patty P doesn’t care. All he was thinking about was that end zone. This kid is going through his growing pains as a corner but he is dynamic returning kicks. Not Devin Hester level yet, but maybe soon.

Runnin’ Bucs wild

I made bet the Bucs-Saints under this week because I expected both teams to try and run the ball more than usual.

LeGarrette “Rolla” Blount was my first tipoff. He was pumped about returning from injury as the feature back and spilt the beans. He said he expected a bigger role in the offense, which his head coach might have told him.

You see, Raheem Morris hasn’t been exactly pleased with the play of Josh Freeman this season.

Morris recently said his quarterback was relying on his arm too much, wasn’t going through his progressions and wasn’t checking down enough. He joked that Freeman must have drafted himself in fantasy because he was trying to force throws that weren’t there. Too much confidence was his prognosis.

How do you curb that confidence? Take the ball out of Freeman’s hands. Tampa didn’t have a ton of carries Sunday but I think we’ll see a more controlled offense from this team going forward, which could lend to more unders.

The Saints were eager to run this week because the Bucs can’t stop the run, and it offsets the problems on the line. EZ Brees has thrown a lot of picks because he doesn’t have time in the pocket.

But Brees wasn’t sacked once Sunday. Sean Payton called for runs when Tampa called for pressure. When the rookie gets healthy, the Saints will have four capable backs to hand off to, and that’s scary.

To catch, or not to catch, that is the question

I’m beyond confused so I ask again, will someone clarify the “Calvin Johnson” rule for me. As a bettor I want to know when I've gotten screwed and when I got a break. It helps me sleep at night. I can't get that relief if I don't understand a rule.

Hines Ward makes a grab, gets popped, falls to the ground and they call it a catch. Ravens challenge, it’s overturned. Pitt has to settle for a field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-inches.

How many seconds does a receiver have to be on the ground to complete the catch? Hines clearly had possession when his butt and back hit the ground, and then Bernard Pollard dislodged it.

Of course this would’ve been moot had Hines not been concussed. It should’ve either been a catch or a helmet-to-helmet hit on Ray Lewis.

The rules brain trust better get this shit straight during the offseason because the inconsistency is ridiculous. And every bad call is even more infuriating when it affects your bankroll.

Lean on me

Texans -3 at Bucs - I’m impressed that Houston has played so well without its two superstars.

Patriots +1 at Jets - I just don’t see how Brady and the boys lose three in a row.

Giants +3 ½ at Niners - Need to find out about key injuries before making a bet but NY could win this one outright.

NFL Record: 24-14-2, $888

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
11/09/2011 07:44 PM


Week 10

Oakland at San Diego
The Chargers look to build on their 24-7 ATS record in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points. San Diego is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7). Here are all of this week's picks.


Game 107-108: Oakland at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.392; San Diego 134.644
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7); Over


Game 217-218: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.963; Cincinnati 134.108
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Under

Game 219-220: Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.971; Kansas City 135.905
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 14; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Under

Game 221-222: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.418; Indianapolis 120.398
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); Over

Game 223-224: Buffalo at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.763; Dallas 138.686
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under

Game 225-226: Houston at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.444; Tampa Bay 132.860
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Over

Game 227-228: Tennessee at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.555; Carolina 130.595
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Under

Game 229-230: Washington at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.263; Miami 126.999
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Miami by 4; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over

Game 231-232: New Orleans at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.290; Atlanta 135.312
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Pick; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans; Under

Game 233-234: Detroit at Chicago (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 136.222; Chicago 140.125
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Over

Game 235-236: St. Louis at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.925; Cleveland 125.867
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 37;
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 237-238: Arizona at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.115; Philadelphia 138.965
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 18; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 239-240: Baltimore at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.109; Seattle 126.599
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under

Game 241-242: NY Giants at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.949; San Francisco 139.059
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Over

Game 243-244: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.617; NY Jets 137.703
Dunkel Line: New England by 2; 50
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (+1); Over


Game 245-246: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.481; Green Bay 142.311
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 47
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13; 51
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: