cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:24 PM

Little Line Movement For Monday Night Football

The Green Bay Packers will be double-digit favorites for the third time in four games when they host the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North divisional matchup on Monday Night Football. The unbeaten Packers (8-0) are 13-point favorites against Minnesota (2-6) according to the Don Best odds screen and have gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six. Game time is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. (ET).

The only real concern for the defending Super Bowl champions this season has been on the defensive side of the ball, where they have slipped to 30th in the NFL in yards allowed, giving up nearly 400 yards per game. Last year, Green Bay ranked fifth in the league, allowing just 309.1 yards per game. The biggest difference has been through the air, as the team is surrendering almost 300 passing yards per game compared to 194.2 in 2010.

The Packers ranked second in the NFL last year with 24 picks and already have a league-high 16 this season. Their ability to generate turnovers has allowed them to play a bend, not break style of defense where they allow opponents to move down the field and rack up yards but ultimately keep stay out of the end zone for the most part.

The Vikings figure to test them again after nearly pulling off a major upset in Week 7. Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder helped them cover the spread as 10-point home underdogs in a 33-27 loss, throwing for 219 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions while running back Adrian Peterson also ran for 175 yards on 24 carries and scored once. Ponder made his first career start against Green Bay, and the two picks were the only real mistakes he made.

Minnesota is coming off a bye week after winning on the road against the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 as 3-point dogs, 24-21. Ponder threw for 236 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions to outduel fellow rookie Cam Newton. The team spent the bye getting healthier, as cornerback Antoine Winfield should be back on the field for the first time since Week 4 after recovering from a neck injury. Winfield is listed as probable on the injury report.

Green Bay’s inefficiencies on defense have not been noticeable in the standings thanks to QB Aaron Rodgers and the team’s offense. Rodgers has completed nearly 73 percent of his passes for 2,619 yards with 24 touchdowns and just three interceptions. In the first meeting with the Vikings, he calmly led the Pack on two touchdown drives within the first five minutes of the third quarter en route to a 20-0 run after they trailed 17-13 at halftime.

The NFL’s highest-scoring offense that has averaged 34.4 points per game has led to five of eight games going ‘over’ the total, including each of the past two. Last week, Green Bay held off a late rally by the San Diego Chargers in a 45-38 road victory, building a 21-7 lead at the end of the first quarter thanks to two interception returns for touchdowns.

The Packers remain No. 1 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and may be focused on proving they can still play great defense on a national stage and in front of their home fans. Early betting has seen the opening total of 51 ½ go down to 50 ½ at some sportsbooks. The ‘over’ is 6-1 in their last seven meetings with No. 24 Minnesota, although none of the totals in those games closed higher than 47.

The weather should not be a factor in Green Bay, as the high temperature is expected to reach 51, cooling down to 35 at night under partly cloudy skies.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:26 PM

Week 10 Preview: Vikings at Packers



Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -13, Total: 50

The Packers look to add on to their 14-game win streak when they host 2-6 Minnesota on Monday night.

When the teams met in Minnesota in Week 7, the aggressiveness of Green Bay’s secondary actually worked against them in QB Christian Ponder’s first start. While Ponder was intercepted twice and completed just 13-of-32 passes in that game, he still racked up 219 yards and had a couple of long completions to WR Michael Jenkins. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense figures to do whatever they want against the Vikings defense. He has a 124.5 passer rating and 310.3 YPG against Minnesota over the past two years, and the Vikings’ injury-plagued secondary can’t match up with Green Bay’s receivers. Considering Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games following a victory, and the Packers are 16-4 ATS after 3+ wins in a row under head coach Mike McCarthy, the pick here is GREEN BAY to cover the two-touchdown spread.

This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also supports the Packers:

Mike McCarthy is 17-3 ATS (85.0%, +13.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 28.5, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 4*).

Rodgers has been amazing during his team’s 14-game win streak, throwing for 4,340 yards (310 YPG), 38 TD and just 6 INT. He has also enjoyed picking apart Minnesota in his career, tossing 15 TD and only three picks in seven career meetings with the Vikings. WR Greg Jennings has scored in each of the past four meetings with Minnesota, totaling 28 catches for 461 yards and six touchdowns. Green Bay’s running game is slowly, but surely, improving. The team has rushed for 57, 96, 114 and 136 yards in the past four games. RB James Starks had a strong 75 yards on 13 carries (5.8 YPC) in the October trip to the Metrodome, and also had 66 yards on 13 carries (5.1 YPC) in last week’s win in San Diego.

The Packers are still allowing 300 passing YPG (2nd-most in NFL), but have a league-high 16 interceptions. Charles Woodson (five picks) leads the way, followed by Charlie Peprah (4 INT), who picked off two Philip Rivers passes last week, returning one 40 yards for a touchdown. Tramon Williams also had a pick-six against Rivers, returning an INT for 43 yards for a score.

Although the Vikings haven’t won a whole lot of recent trips to Lambeau Field, they have an 11-9 ATS advantage in the past 20 meetings in Green Bay. Vikings monster RB Adrian Peterson has done all he can to carry this offense in 2011, with 795 rushing yards (fourth in NFL) on 166 carries (tied for most in NFL). His nine touchdown runs are also tied atop the league and Peterson has fumbled just once in the first half of 2011. And considering what he has done to Green Bay defenders over the years, you better believe he will get a heavy workload on Monday night. In nine career games against the Pack, Peterson has 982 rushing yards (109.1 YPG) and six touchdowns. Peterson’s presence alleviates the pressure on Ponder to perform, but the rookie improved his completion percentage fro 40.6% in his first start to 64.3% in the Vikings’ last game at Carolina, a 24-21 win.

Minnesota’s pass defense ranks slightly above Green Bay’s at 274 YPG (30th in NFL), but it is still missing two cornerbacks in starter Antoine Winfield (neck) and reserve Chris Cook (suspension). The Vikings shouldn’t have much problem containing the Packers middling ground game. Minnesota ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing defense (94 YPG) and Green Bay has gained an average of 89 rushing YPG in the past five meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:28 PM

MNF - Vikings at Packers

November 13, 2011

Two NFC North rivals going in different directions wrap up the Week 10 card at Lambeau Field. The Packers (8-0) are riding a 14-game winning streak dating back to Week 16 of last season, while Green Bay has a terrific shot to finish the regular season at 16-0. The next task for Mike McCarthy's club is the last-place Vikings (2-6), who have played well since changing things up at quarterback.

After the Brett Favre experiment ended last season, the Vikings turned to another veteran in Donovan McNabb. However, that didn't work out well as Minnesota started the season at 0-4, even though the Vikings managed to cover in losses to the Chargers and Lions. Following a humiliating 39-10 blowout loss at Chicago in Week 6, head coach Leslie Frazier decided to pull the plug on McNabb and start rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback.

The first round pick from Florida State infused life into the Minnesota attack, as Ponder threw a pair of touchdown passes in a 33-27 home loss to the Packers. The Vikings covered as 10-point underdogs, as Adrian Peterson ran all over the Green Bay defense with 175 yards and a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns, including two scores in a 20-point third quarter outburst.

Minnesota picked up its second win of the season and first under Ponder in a 24-21 victory at Carolina as three-point 'dogs. The Vikings won the battle of rookie quarterbacks, even though top pick Cam Newton threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Ponder led the Vikings on a pair of scoring drives to erase a seven-point deficit late, including Ryan Longwell's go-ahead field goal with less than three minutes remaining.

The Packers' offense continued to cruise in a 45-38 shootout victory at San Diego last Sunday as 5 ½-point favorites. Rodgers delivered another efficient performance with four touchdown tosses to four different receivers, while the defense intercepted three Philip Rivers' passes. Green Bay improved to 6-2 ATS with the road cover, as the two ATS defeats have come as double-digit away favorites.

This has been an incredible run for the Packers from both the SU and ATS perspective since beating the Giants in Week 16 of last season. Green Bay has covered 11 times during this 14-game winning streak, while cashing in seven of the previous eight contests at Lambeau Field.

Underdogs are on a nice run in Monday night games recently by cashing in each of the last three weeks. However, two of those 'dogs were at home (Jacksonville and Kansas City), while Chicago won outright at Philadelphia last week as eight-point 'dogs, 30-24. The home team is 7-3 SU this season on Monday night, but home favorites are just 3-4 ATS, including the Buccaneers as the lone double-digit home 'chalk' coming into this Monday (Tampa Bay failed to cover in a seven-point win).

Interestingly enough, the Packers are making their one and only appearance under the Monday night lights this season against the Vikings, which is rare for a team that just won the Super Bowl. Granted, Green Bay played in the Thursday night season opener against New Orleans and won 42-34 as five-point favorites, but is playing in its third primetime game this season. The Packers made just one appearance on Monday night last season and lost as three-point favorites at Chicago, 20-17. Green Bay owns a 2-0 SU/ATS mark on Monday nights in McCarthy's tenure at Lambeau Field, including a 27-14 blowout of the Ravens back in 2009.

Minnesota isn't a prime candidate to be on Monday night since the retirement of Favre, as the Vikings are back in this spot for the first time since a 29-20 loss to the Jets last season as four-point underdogs. New York put up a front-door cover on a late interception-return for a touchdown on an errant Favre throw, while the game went 'over' the total of 39 in spite of just nine points scored in the first half.

The Packers are listed as 13-point favorites on Monday night, while the total is set at 50 ½. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN and kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Lambeau Field.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:31 PM


Monday, November 14

Vikings at Packers: What bettors need to know

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13, 50.5)

THE STORY: Rookie Christian Ponder didn't project to be a first-round draft pick this year and certainly didn't figure to be in the mix for the starting quarterback job in his first season with the Minnesota Vikings. So as Ponder gets set to make his third career start on Monday night, he'll again be asked to overcome steep odds when the Vikings pay a visit to Lambeau Field to face the reigning Super Bowl champion – and unbeaten – Green Bay Packers. It will be the second time in three starts that Ponder will be staring across the field at Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have reeled off 14 consecutive victories dating to last season's run to the Super Bowl.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-6): Coming out of its bye, Minnesota will look to build on a 24-21 win at Carolina in Week 8. Ponder threw for 236 yards and a touchdown and Adrian Peterson had rushing and receiving TDs. The Vikings led visiting Green Bay at halftime in Ponder’s first start, but the Packers ripped off 20 consecutive points in the third quarter to take control. The Vikings will lean heavily on Peterson, who rushed for 175 yards in the first meeting and has amassed 982 yards in nine games against the Packers. Jared Allen, who leads the league in sacks with 13.0, had two of Minnesota’s four against Rodgers in Week 6.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-0): Rodgers continued his brilliant season by throwing four touchdown passes in a 45-38 win at San Diego. Charlie Peprah and Tramon Williams returned interceptions for TDs as Green Bay surpassed 40 points for the third time this season. It was the second four-touchdown game of the season for Rodgers, who has tossed an off-the-charts 24 scoring passes against only three interceptions. He’s also the first player in league history to compile a passer rating of at least 110 in each of the first eight games to start a season. The defense, particularly against the pass, continues to be a concern after allowing 65 points in the last two games.


This line has moved around a lot between 13 and 14 but it looks like it'll close on the low side of the two-touchdown mark. The total could be found as high as 51.5 but it looks like it's settled at 50.5.


The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.

The Packers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with losing records.

The under is 7-1 in the Vikings' last eight road games while the over is 7-2 in the Packers' last nine home games.


A little chilly but that's to be expected for a Packer home game. Game-time temperature should be around 41 degrees F.


1. Green Bay is the third reigning Super Bowl champ to open the following season 8-0, joining San Francisco (1990) and Denver (1998).

2. Minnesota’s Allen has registered a sack in a franchise-record 10 straight games. He has 11.5 sacks in his last six games against the Packers.

3. The Packers are averaging 34.4 points per game. New Orleans (31.9) is the only other team averaging more than 30.

PREDICTION: Packers 34, Vikings 20. The Vikings will look to use the running of Peterson to play keep-away from Rodgers. It works – for about a half.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:32 PM


Monday, November 14

Tale of the tape: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13, 50)


The Green Bay Packers aren’t trying to fool anybody on offense – they’re going to throw it all over the place. They rank third in the league in passing offense and just 20th in rushing as Aaron Rodgers continues his incredible season. He has 24 TDs compared to just three interceptions this season and is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt.

Minnesota is pounding away with the running game. Adrian Peterson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry but the Vikings muster only 21.5 points per contest while ranking 29th in passing offense. Quarterback Christian Ponder has shown promise at times and picked up the first win of his career before the bye week. However, he’s completing just 51.9 percent of his passing attempts.

Edge: Packers


Neither of these teams can defend the pass well. Minnesota sits 30 in passing defense (273.6 yards per game) and Green Bay is even worse, allowing 299 yards per contest through the air. The Packers allowed 435 total yards in the first meeting between the two clubs but managed to hold on for a 33-27 win. Big plays are really hurting the cheeseheads as they have already allowed 43 plays of 20 or more yards.

Rodgers should expect to see a lot of Minnesota defensive end Jared Allen, who heads into this one with 12.5 sacks. He has managed at least one sack in seven straight games and is on track to top his single-season best of 15.5. Allen is the lone bright spot on a defense that’s allowing 24.9 points per contest.

Edge: Packers

Special teams

Minnesota needs a huge game from its special teams. The Vikes sit second in the NFL averaging 29.4 yards per kick return and have three returns of at least 65 yards already. Plus, Minnesota flies around on return coverage pinning its opposition inside its own 20-yard line 11 times this season, good for seventh in the league.

Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby is one of the best in the business and has hit all 15 of his field goal attempts, but Minnesota’s Ryan Longwell isn’t bad either. He has hit 13 of his 16 attempts and has a 53-yarder on his resume already this season.

Edge: Vikings

Word on the street

“This early, you might not think about [an undefeated season] quite as much, although you hear a lot about it from people outside of your organization. But the longer you’re undefeated, the more the drama builds and it can be overwhelming if you are not a mature team. But they seem to be.” – Vikings coach Leslie Frasier on Green Bay’s perfect record.

"We have to play the way we know how (to play) and get back to the fundamentals. Everybody needs to be held accountable, and I think we've got all the playmakers from last year. We're a good defense, we just need to play like that." – Green Bay’s Clay Matthews.

Final score prediction

Green Bay 45, Minnesota 28

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
11/14/2011 06:35 PM

Monday, November 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET Green Bay -13 500

Green Bay - Over 49.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: