coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:25 PM

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins

Spread: 49ers minus-5.5

Public consensus pick: 82 percent picked 49ers

Public perception: It's a landslide on the 49ers, and it doesn't appear to be slowing down, aided by the reported bickering in the Redskins' locker room.

Wiseguys' view: The 49ers lost to the Saints last week, but there's no shame in that. The 49ers are still held in high regard with wiseguys. They did cover against the closing 3.5-point spread and are tied for the top record in the NFL ATS Standings at 7-3.

Tuley's Take: I would normally be all over the home underdog on Monday night (though they haven't been as strong of a play in recent years), but I have no confidence in the Washington defense holding down the San Francisco offense. In contrast, the 49ers' defense has been solid in the two losses since its bye despite losing both (10 points to the Panthers, 23 to the Saints in New Orleans).

The pick: Pass (pool play: 49ers).

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:38 PM

- The top Covers consensus Totals pick is the Over 45 in the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants (75.60 percent).

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:40 PM

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:41 PM

- The Pats have allowed teams to score touchdowns in 70 percent of their trips in the red zone over the last three games.

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:44 PM

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:44 PM

Cowboys @ Giants (-2.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Last 4 games: Giants have yielded less than 12 ppg

Dallas yielded 40 first downs and gained only 9 last game vs. Saints

Dallas beat Giants first matchup this season, but were outgained by over 140 yards

Dallas has been outgained by over 1100 yards on the season

Dallas 7-1 ATS off bye

Giants at home: only 2 of 14 winning seasons ATS

Underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (41-17 ATS the last 4 seasons)

Tony Romo has won 22 of 27 games (SU) in November

Cowboys, playing within the division: 18-31 ATS

Dallas: Any team off 30+ point loss before bye: 15-4 ATS

And Dallas has been lucky with turnovers: +11 on the season
While the Giants have been unlucky: -11 on the season

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:48 PM

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:49 PM

SNF: Broncos @ Patriots (+2.5) -- 8:30 p.m.

Pats: multiple 2ndary injuries

Pats back to back underdogs: first time since 2006.

11/7/2005 the last time Patriots a home underdog.
That’s over 8 years (2934 days ago!)
708 home underdogs in the NFL since.
6 times since from the 2nd most uncommon home dog (Steelers)
Most common: Rams 45 times.

Belichick off a straight-up loss: covered 25 of 34 ATS next game

Bill Belichick with Patriots: 36-19-1 ATS (67%) as underdog.

Patriots as an underdog following a loss: 15-2 ATS

Patriots as an underdog following game as underdog: 16-3 ATS

New England has won 35 of 38 regular season home games (SU)

#1 scoring team Denver has a bigger point differential over the #2 team than the #2 team has over the #31 team.

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:54 PM

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
11/24/2013 12:54 PM

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