cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
On 10/25/2011 10:54 PM in NFL

Cnotes NFL Week # 8 Best Bets 10/30-10/31 !

NFL Week 7 Review And Week 8 Preview

On this eve of Halloween week, there were definitely plenty of delightful treats along with a bevy of treacherous tricks in NFL betting action. Week 7 will certainly go down as one of the strangest weeks that we have seen in quite some time.

We'll begin with the 1:00 p.m. (ET) games, in which there was not a single 300-yard passer in the bunch. In fact, of the 14 starting quarterbacks in the seven games, only four threw for more than 250 yards, and two even failed to get to 110 passing yards.

The end result was a slew of 'under' contests. Four of the seven failed to reach the total, including the 6-3 game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Cleveland Browns, which proved to be the lowest scoring game of the entire season.

Only three of the 14 teams exceeded 24 points, and only one team (the San Diego Chargers) lost after scoring at least 20.

The good news though, is that a number of games were tight and came down to the final drives of games. Sure, the Houston Texans wiped the floor with the Tennessee Titans 41-7, but the average margin of victory in the other six games was a mere 6.33 PPG.

Tim Tebow looked like he was going to be a trick against the Miami Dolphins, as the former Heisman Trophy winner failed to put a single point on the board in the first 57 minutes against a defense that has resembled a slice of Swiss cheese over the course of the year. Instead, he turned out to treat us all.

Tebow accounted for two touchdown passes in the final three minutes of regulation, and he ultimately helped the Denver Broncos record their second victory of the season 18-15. It was the first time in nearly 30 years that a team came from a deficit of greater than 14 points with three minutes or fewer remaining in regulation to win a game.

And then the floodgates opened in the 4:00 p.m. (ET) games. The Pittsburgh Steelers got 340 passing yards from Ben Roethlisberger en route to a 32-20 victory over the team that they beat in the Super Bowl three seasons ago, the Arizona Cardinals, making them one of the three road teams in the afternoon that were able to win games outright.

The Oakland Raiders probably thought that they were going to be the biggest trick of the day, as they debuted Carson Palmer off of the bench in a miserable 28-0 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Remember, this was the same Kansas City team which was beaten down by the aggregate score of 89-10 in its first two games of the season.

Instead, the big trick would come on Sunday Night Football, where the New Orleans Saints recorded a whopping 62 points in a romp over the Indianapolis Colts. It was the most points allowed by the Colts franchise, and the previous high was back in 1962 (57 points). It is also the first time that Indianapolis is 0-7 since 1997. That year, they went on to get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft and picked none other than Peyton Manning.

Week 8 isn't necessarily the sexiest slate of games in the world. There are five games in which the favorite is getting the nod by at least 9 ½-points, and that doesn't including the duel between the Saints and the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome, which will also likely feature a double-digit spread when the NFL betting lines for that game get released later in the week.

The showcase game pits the New England Patriots against the Steelers at Heinz Field. The hosts are 2 ½-point underdogs on their home turf against arguably the best team in the AFC. Tom Brady and the gang were on bye last week, and they are going to try to start another streak of games in which they score 30 or more points. That streak lasted 13 games until a Week 6 narrow escape against the Dallas Cowboys.

Those Cowboys will be highlighted on Sunday Night Football in a game of utmost importance against the Philadelphia Eagles. The host Eagles are favored by 3 ½-points.

Finally on Halloween night, we will probably learn whether the Chargers are tricks or treats in the AFC West. This division features three teams that are separated by just a game in the standings, and should the Kansas City Chiefs pull off the upset as 3 ½-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, these two teams and Oakland will all be deadlocked at 4-3.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:56 PM

Week 7 Recap

October 25, 2011

Vikings Give the Book a Big Win, Despite Losing to Packers

Thank you, Christian Ponder. That's about all I can say after the rookie quarterback led the Minnesota Vikings to a 33-27 defeat to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday at the Metrodome.

OK, it might sound a little weird to say a quarterback led his team to a loss, but that's all we needed: a close game. The Vikes covered the 11-point spread, giving the book a huge win.

Get all your NFL lines at Bodog.

Home of experiencing the rush.
Hey, remember last week when I wrote we couldn't seem to set a spread high enough for the Packers? It was true. Really true. Approximately nine out of 10 bettors took Green Bay minus the points.

While Ponder was far from perfect, you have to give the kid credit for attacking the Super Bowl champs in such a fearless fashion. The 23-year-old attempted 32 passes, completing just 13 of them, but throwing for two scores. I suppose he had nothing to lose, as it wasn't like Minnesota was still in the playoff chase. Might as well go for it.

Sunday featured another good win for the book when the New York Jets (+1) beat the Chargers, 27-21, at MetLife Stadium.

I have to admit I was a little surprised how little betting support the Jets received in this one. I get that they've had big-time issues on offense, but this was a New York team with a 3-3 record getting a point at home to a side that had to travel all the way across the country. I guess New York's 24-7 victory over the Dolphins in Week 6 didn't convince anyone the Jets had turned things around. And to be fair, it didn't look good for them early on.

The players did hit the book for significant losses in a couple of games. Breaking news: apparently there are a lot of Tim Tebow fans out there. Bettors won big when the college star brought the Broncos (-1) back from a 15-0 deficit to beat the Dolphins, 18-15, in overtime. With the painful loss, Miami dropped to 0-6 on the season.

Another good game for the players was the Pittsburgh-Arizona affair in Glendale, won 32-20 by the visiting Steelers (-4.5). Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had his best game of the 2011 season, throwing for 361 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

Looking ahead to Week 8, we'll be paying particular attention to the Patriots-Steelers game at Heinz Field. We've got New England (which is coming off its bye week) by a field goal, making 5-2 Pittsburgh a rare home underdog. Both sides should see good action from bettors.

Another game we'll be booking heavy action on is Cowboys-Eagles, a Sunday night affair in Philadelphia. This is another must-win for the Eagles (2-4), who could get right back in the playoff race in the NFC East with a victory over 3-3 Dallas. On the other, a loss would surely be the end. We've got the Eagles by 3.5.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:59 PM

Vikings, Jets help books

October 25, 2011

When you get lemons, you make lemonade. That’s what most football fans had to do this past Sunday as the NFL handed out one of the worst lineups ever seen for Week 7. The card was helped by having six popular teams on byes, who owned a combined 24-12 record through the first six weeks. But in the end, there was a little cause for excitement because we were getting a glimpse of the future.
Denver’s quarterback Tim Tebow looked awful for the first 55 minutes and then pulled a miracle out in Miami. At the same time, the Vikings’ Christian Ponder held his own against the world champions Green Bay Packers and became a hero for the sports books. Then there’s Oakland’s Carson Palmer, who came into the Chiefs game looking to save the day, but gave more of the same sorry quarterbacking story.

When looking back on Week 7, it really wasn't as bad as it initially looked on paper. Nine of the first 13 games were competitive from a point-spread perspective of being five points or less. This made things difficult for the bettors.

Usually it’s the point-spread on teams that dictate where the small money goes. Bettors didn’t have the popular teams like Patriots, 49ers or Giants to feature in their parlays. Nor did they have the upstart Bengals or Bills. And it doesn’t matter what the Eagles record is, they’re always going to attract attention as one of the more popular plays.

So bettors had to try and find a new angle last week and it was tough. The Chargers are a popular team, so a large portion jumped on their wagon as their first link of the day against a struggling Jets squad. Even though the Jets were 3-0 at home, they’re too up and down for the casual bettor to take a liking to. The Chargers jumped out to an early commanding lead, but the Jets fought back to win 27-21.

The public also jumped in on the Broncos and all the Tim Tebow hype. The Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites, but Denver closed as the 2 ½-point road favorite. All the experts were glowing for the first 55 minutes of the game in their analysis of Tebow not being able to make it in the NFL because he can’t throw. And he couldn’t in this game, he was awful.

But then all of a sudden, the other faction of his game came out, the part of his game supporters say is the reason he can make it in the NFL, his heart. He willed his team to 15 points in the final 3 minutes -- the first time it’s happened in the NFL since 1970 -- to tie the game and send it to overtime. His team rallied behind him, got a turnover and then kicked the winning field goal to win 18-15.

The win was one of a sprinkling few on the day for bettors. It was also the Broncos first win ever at Miami in eight tries.

Public support also sided with the Lions at home going from 3 ½-point favorites to -5 ½. The feeling was that Lions should bounce back after their first loss of the season against a Falcons team searching for their identity. The Falcons went back to being physical and pounding the ball with Michael Turner, using a blueprint from the 49ers win two weeks ago, and won 23-16.

Incidentally, the Lions, on a two-game losing streak are 3 ½-point favorites at a Tebow-crazed Denver this week.

With the sports books coming out unhurt from the early games, all they needed to secure a winning day was have two of the underdogs cover in the four late games with a preference on one of those teams being the Vikings.

The Chiefs jumped all over quarterback Kyle Boller and the favored Raiders (-4) for three interceptions, including one for a touchdown in the first half to take a 14-0 lead. Newly acquired QB Carson Palmer took over in the second half much to the Raider Nation’s delight, but his performance was almost a carbon copy of Boller‘s. Palmer would throw three picks as well, including one for a touchdown and the Chiefs put 14 more points on the board to eventually win 28-0.

For the sports books, things were faring okay, but the Vikings were still the underdog they wanted. The Steelers were handling the Cardinals and the Cowboys were destroying the Rams, so everything was riding on the arm of Ponder and legs of running back Adrian Peterson.

The books got what they wanted early on as Ponder rolled out and threw a beautiful pass down the sideline for a 74-yard gain that led to an easy score. That set the tempo for the afternoon. It was kind of an early punch in the nose to the 10-point bully that they were going to be in for a tough game.

However, things started to turn the bettors’ way when the Vikings 17-13 halftime lead quickly turned into a 33-17 Packers route by the time the fourth quarter started. But the Vikings chipped away with a field goal and then the all important back door cover making the score 33-27 and covering the 10-point number.

“We really only won two games on the day,“ said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay, “But they were our biggest two games of the day with the Jets and Vikings getting there. I wouldn’t say we won on the day, but it wasn’t a loss.“

So following the Saints-Over massacre on Sunday night, the favorites ended up 6-5-1 on the day. Just like the Browns-Seahawks game, the day was a push and it’s on to Week 8 with all our favorite teams back in action.

Hello Mr. Murray

Welcome to the big-time DeMarco Murray. Your 253 yards rushing against the Rams set a new Cowboys record and puts your name above the likes of Hall-of-Famers Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith. The city of Las Vegas, your home town, couldn’t be happier for your success. Good luck to Felix Jones trying to get that starting job back.

Kornegay on the Linemakers

Jay Kornegay from the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book will be featured as a guest on "The Linemakers" this Friday night at 8:00 p.m. on Discovery’s Velocity channel. ‘The Linemakers’ is a show starring all the legendary bookmakers who built the modern day sports books.

“I’ve been watching the show every week and I like it a lot,” said Kornegay. “It’s kind of cool that we can have our business that so many people across the states are intrigued about be on television for all to see.“

The show tapes each Tuesday at the South Point and has already featured current sports book directors like Bert Osborne. The stars of the show are Jimmy Vaccaro, Vinny Magliulo, Lou D’Amico, Kenny White, Rick Herron and Richie Baccellieri. The host is Brian Blessing.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/25/2011 11:02 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 8

October 25, 2011

Sunday, Oct 30 (1:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

IND: 2-4 ATS L6 away
IND: 0-4 ATS L4 away vs division
TEN: 4-1 ATS L5 off home loss
TEN: 7-4 ATS L11 home vs division

JAX: 1-4 ATS L5 away
JAX: 6-1 'under' L7 overall
HOU: 4-0 ATS L4 home vs division
HOU: 6-2 'over' L8 vs JAX

ARZ: 2-5 ATS L7 vs AFC
ARZ: 6-3 ATS L9 off home loss
BAL: 6-4 ATS L10 home favorite
BAL: 5-2 ATS L7 vs NFC

MIA: 15-7 ATS L22 away underdog
MIA: 5-0 'under' L5 away vs NFC
NYG: 5-11-1 ATS L17 home
NYG: 2-4-1 ATS L7 home vs AFC

MIN: 2-6 ATS L8 away underdog
MIN: 4-1 'over' L5 before bye
CAR: 5-0 ATS L5 home
CAR: 6-3 ATS L9 vs non-division

NOR: 1-9 ATS L10 away vs non-division
NOR: 4-8 ATS L12 off home win
STL: 1-9 ATS L10 overall
STL: 0-5 ATS L5 home vs non-division

Sunday, Oct 30 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

WSH: 8-3-1 ATS L12 away underdogs
WSH: 4-1 ATS L5 vs AFC
BUF: 5-1 ATS L6 off bye
BUF: 6-3 'under' L9 vs NFC

DET: 6-4 ATS L10 vs AFC
DET: 7-4 ATS L11 away
DEN: 2-8 ATS L10 home
DEN: 1-4 ATS L5 vs NFC

Sunday, Oct 30 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

NEP: 10-3 ATS L13 away
NEP: 4-1 ATS L5 vs PIT
PIT: 4-7 ATS L11 off away win
PIT: 6-3 ATS L9 home vs non-division

CLE: 2-6 ATS L8 vs NFC
CLE: 3-7 ATS L10 off home game
SFO: 1-5-1 ATS L7 off bye
SFO: 8-3-1 ATS L12 vs AFC

CIN: 3-8 ATS L11 away favorites
CIN: 2-5 ATS L7 off bye
SEA: 8-4 ATS L12 home off away game
SEA: 6-1 ATS L7 home vs AFC

Sunday, Oct 30 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

DAL: 2-5 ATS L7 vs division
DAL: 4-7 ATS L11 off home win
PHI: 6-2 ATS L8 off bye
PHI: 1-4 ATS L5 vs DAL

Monday, Oct 31 (8:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

SDG: 7-2-1 'over' L10 away vs division
SDG: 3-7 ATS L10 away favorites
KC: 4-7 ATS L11 vs division
KC: 11-4 ATS L15 underdogs

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/25/2011 11:06 PM

NFL Trends - Week 8

October 25, 2011

Sunday, Oct 30 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Indy "over" 6-1 TY and "over" 10-3 since late 2010. Colts "over" 13-2 last 15 as visitor. Titans "over" 7-3 last ten since late 2010, though 10-2 "under" last 12 vs. Indy. "Over," based on Indy road "totals" trends.

Texans "under" 5-2 since Wade Phillips arrived as d.c. in 2011, Jags also "under" 6-1 in 2011 and "under" 11-3 last 14 since late 2010. Texans have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Jags at Reliant Stadium, and even after Monday upset over Ravens, J'ville just 3-7 vs. spread last 10 on board since late 2010. "Under" and slight to Texans, based on "totals" and series trends.

Cardinals 2-11 vs. spread last 13 as visitor. Ravens 4-2 vs. line TY (3-0 at home) and 8-4 last 12 on board since late 2010. Ravens, based on team trends.

Dolphins have now failed to cover last two on road after Sparano 18-6 vs. spread previous 24 away from home. Miami also "under" 3-0 away TY and "under" 18-6 last 24 away. Giants only 4-7 vs. spread at new MetLife Stadium since LY. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Carolina has covered 5 of last 6 in 2011. 2010. Vikes "under" 7-1 last 8 on road. Panthers and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Rams 0-6 vs. line TY, 0-7 last 7 and 1-9 vs. line last 10 since late 2010, and 1-5 last 6 vs. spread at Edward Jones Dome. Saints, however, just 4-12 vs. line last 16 as visitor (1-3 TY), 1-5 last 6 as road chalk. Rams also "under" 8-3 last 11 since late 2010. "Under" and Saints, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct 30 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

(at Toronto)... Bills 0-3 SU, 0-2-1 vs. line in Toronto games the past three years. Skins "under" 10-3 last 13 since late 2010. Bills, however, "over" 5-1 TY and 6-1 "over" last 7 since late 2010. Bills 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-4 in role for Chan since LY. Skins, based on team trends.

Denver "over" 21-7 last 28 since late 2009. Lions 8-2-1 vs. line away since 2010. "Over" and slight to Lions, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct 30 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Belichick 4-1 SU and vs. line last 5 in series, only loss when Brady was injured in 2008. "Overs" 7-1 last 8 meetings since 2001. Belichick "over" 20-5 last 25 since late 2009. Tomlin 0-2 as dog TY after 9-4 mark in role previous four years since assuming Steeler job in 2007. "Over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and series trends.

Harbaugh 5-0-1 vs. line TY, SF now 6-0-1 vs. spread since late 2010, and Harbaugh on personal 8-0-1 spread run since late 2010 (Stanford & 49ers). SF 13-5-2 against points last 20 at Candlestick Park. Browns on 2-12 spread run since mid 2010. 49ers, based on team trends.

Pete Carroll 8-3 vs. line at Qwest Field since arriving at Seattle LY, also 7-3-1 "over" at home that span. Cincy 5-1 vs. line TY and 8-1 vs. spread since late 2010. Slight to Seahawks, based on Carroll home mark.

Sunday, Oct 30 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas 4-1 vs. line last five in series, and Cowboys have covered all six as dog since Jason Garrett took over as HC midway in 2010. Dallas "over" 27-12 since 2009 (but "under" 3-2 vs. Eagles that span). Birds 4-8 vs. spread last 12 at Linc. Cowboys and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct 31 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Chiefs have covered their last four TY and are 4-2 vs. points last six vs. Bolts. Norv 4-6 last 10 as road chalk but throw Denver out of that mix and the record sinks to 1-6. Chiefs, based on team trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/25/2011 11:07 PM

Week 8 Preview: Vikings at Panthers



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Carolina -3, Total: 47.5

It’s a matchup of rookie quarterbacks when the Panthers host the slumping Vikings on Sunday.

Carolina’s Cam Newton would appear to have a significant advantage over Minnesota’s Christian Ponder in this one. Newton has proven he’s for real, and the Carolina passing game should have no problem against an injury-depleted Vikings secondary. The Panthers have a leaky run defense, but they’ll be able to stack the box with Ponder making his first career road start. The Vikings have been outscored 85-44 on the road this year, and a lot of Ponder’s big plays in his first start came due to improvisation against a Packers defense that has given up more passing yards than any team in the NFL. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS with Newton, while Minnesota is 3-10 ATS as an underdog since the start of 2010. The pick here is CAROLINA to cover a spread that is a few points smaller than it should be.

There’s a three-star FoxSheets Power Trend working against the Vikings as well:

MINNESOTA is 1-11 ATS (8.3%, -11.1 Units) in road games after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The average score was MINNESOTA 23.2, OPPONENT 27.7 - (Rating = 3*).

The Panthers continue to get little respect, even after they dismantled a decent Redskins team 33-20 at home in Week 7. Newton connected on 18-of-23 pass attempts for 256 yards and a touchdown, while also scoring his seventh rushing TD of the season. WR Steve Smith continues his resurgence within his new offense. He leads the NFL with 818 receiving yards, gaining 143 of those yards against Washington. Carolina has rushed for at least 140 yards in each of its past four games, but the team lost another offensive lineman when OT Jeff Otah (back) was placed on Injured Reserve. He joins fellow OLs Geoff Schwartz (hip) and Zach Williams on IR.

Carolina’s rush defense has been subpar, ranking 29th in the NFL (133 YPG), but that number is skewed a bit, as only two of seven opponents have gained more than 130 yards on the ground. The Panthers have allowed a respectable 111 rushing YPG in four home games this year. The defensive numbers will surely improve if they can make more plays on the football. Carolina forced only five turnovers in its first six games, but tallied three takeaways against the Redskins.

Ponder completed just 40.6 percent of his passes and tossed two interceptions in the loss to Green Bay, but he also threw for 219 yards and 2 TD in his first NFL start last week. Adrian Peterson has been the lone bright spot on the 1-6 Vikings, leading the NFL with 712 rushing yards after a 175-yard performance against the Packers. However, he was held to 35 yards on 12 carries the last time he faced Carolina during a 26-7 loss in 2009. Peterson is dealing with a bad ankle, but is expected to start on Sunday. Three other key offensive players may not be in uniform against the Panthers, as WR Percy Harvin (ribs), WR Bernard Berrian (disciplinary) and OG Anthony Herrera (knee) are all listed as questionable.

The defense also has its share of questions, especially in the secondary, as CB Antoine Winfield (neck), S Jamarca Sanford (concussion) and CB Chris Cook (legal trouble) are all considered questionable to play on Sunday. These potential absences will further deplete a passing defense giving up the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (275 YPG). On a positive note, Minnesota’s run defense remains excellent, allowing just 88 YPG (4th in the league). No opponent has reached 120 rushing yards against the Vikings this year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/25/2011 11:09 PM

Week 8 Preview: Dolphins at Giants



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -9.5, Total: 43

Winless Miami visits New Jersey for the second time in three weeks when it takes on the Giants.

The Dolphins aren’t in any better shape than they were when the Jets beat them 24-6 two weeks ago. Matt Moore has been a mess leading an offense that was already awful. Miami has committed multiple turnovers in four of its six games, and has the AFC’s worst red-zone offense so far (seven touchdowns and eight field goals in 20 red-zone trips). The Giants have the talent to handle Miami, but they also have a tendency to make mistakes in bunches, like the five turnovers they had in a home loss to Seattle. New York is 1-6 ATS in the past seven games when favored by more than seven points while the Dolphins are 18-9 ATS on the road since 2008. The pick here is MIAMI to keep the final margin to single digits.

The FoxSheets provide a three-star trend supporting the Dolphins:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points. (74-34 since 1983.) (68.5%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*).

With last Sunday’s overtime loss to Denver, Miami has now lost nine consecutive games dating back to last year, going 1-8 ATS during this skid. The Dolphins have failed to surpass 16 points in a game since Week 1, but QB Matt Moore had a decent afternoon against the Broncos, completing 22-of-33 passes for 197 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Moore has started two road games against the Giants in the past two seasons. He was brilliant in a 41-9 victory in 2009 (15-of-20, 171 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT), but struggled mightily in last season’s 31-18 Week 1 loss (14-of-33, 182 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT). Rookie RB Daniel Thomas has struggled since injuring his hamstring, gaining just 100 yards on 34 carries in the past two weeks. He started the season with 202 yards on 4.9 YPC in his first two games before being sidelined.

Miami ranks 21st in passing defense (258 YPG) and 20th against the run (120 YPG), but these numbers would be much more improved if the team increases its takeaway rate. The Dolphins have forced just four turnovers in six games this year and have a -7 TO margin. On the injury front, DT Jared Odrick and S Reshad Jones are both questionable because of knee injuries.

New York’s offense has been chugging along nicely with 25+ points in five straight games. QB Eli Manning has thrown 11 TD during the offensive surge, but he did not score in his team’s last game, a 27-24 win over Buffalo. RB Ahmad Bradshaw did all the scoring in that game, finding the end zone three times and rolling up 130 total yards (104 rushing). Manning would like to forget his only career meeting against Miami in 2007 in London when he connected on just 8-of-22 passes for 59 yards in an ugly 13-10 overtime win over a Dolphins team that was 0-7 at the time. WR Hakeem Nicks is the team’s top receiver with 323 receiving yards in his past three games.

New York has done a poor job of stopping the run lately, allowing 145+ rushing yards in each of its past four contests. Turnovers have helped this team win, as the Giants have at least two takeaways (12 total) over the past five games. New York doesn’t have any major injury concerns after their bye week, as it appears that RB Brandon Jacobs (knee), OG Chris Snee (concussion) and DE Justin Tuck (groin) will all play on Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/25/2011 11:10 PM

Trending: NFL Power of the Bye (Oct. 30)

We continue our series of studying teams’ performances in and out of the bye week. What you’ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 65 percent or at most 35 percent.


UNDERDOGS have covered all but one of the past 14 Carolina pre-bye week games. That includes last season, when the favored Panthers lost 23-6 at home to the Bears. It’s kind of hard to believe that the lowly Panthers could’ve been favored over a team that would go on to host a conference championship game, but the Bears sent Todd Collins out under center with Jay Cutler having suffered a concussion. Chicago instead rode its ground game to victory, racking up 218 rushing yards, the most the Bears had since their 223 against Phoenix on Oct. 28, 1990.



DETROIT is once again tabbed as a road favorite when the Lions try to break a seven-game pre-bye week losing streak. Detroit had failed to cover the spread in six straight pre-bye contests before Jason Hanson booted a 50-yard field goal with less than three minutes to play in what ended up being a 28-20 loss last season to the Giants, who were a 10-point favorite.



ROAD TEAMS are 10-1-1 ATS in New England’s last 12 post-bye week games. That number looked as if it was going to go to 11-1 last season when the Ravens took a 10-point fourth quarter lead over the Patriots in Foxboro the week after New England’s bye. But the Pats, who were a 3-point favorite, battled back to tie the score 20-20 on Stephen Gostkowski’s 24-yard field goal with 1:51 left in the fourth quarter, then won the game with just 1:56 remaining in overtime.



HOME TEAMS boast a 12-2 ATS record in Cincinnati’s last 14 post-bye week games. The Bengals looked as if they were going to buck that trend last season when they scored 22 unanswered third-quarter points against the favored Falcons in Atlanta to take a lead going into the final quarter. The home team would once again prevail, however, as the 3-point favorites came away with a 39-32 victory.



PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games coming off a bye, and UNDER the total has come in nine times in the Eagles’ past 11 post-bye week games. Bettors who sided with those trends last season were left disappointed, however, as a touchdown run by the Colts’ Javarris James with less than two minutes to go cut the final margin of Philadelphia’s victory to 26-24. The Eagles had been a 3-point favorite in the game, and the touchdown also pushed the total over the game’s 46½ number.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/26/2011 03:54 PM

Seahawks, Cowboys And Chiefs Live Week 8 'Dogs

The Steelers are getting 2½ points at home Sunday vs. the Patriots.
While looking for some "live" NFL underdogs this weekend, it’s worth noting a rather trendless pattern through the first seven weeks of the regular season. Indeed, underdogs and favorites are level at 50 covers apiece entering this weekend’s action.

As far as different spread categories, note that teams receiving between 1-3 points are 18-14 vs. the number, teams receiving 3½-6½ points are 18-23 vs. the spread, teams receiving 7-9½ points are 8-8 against the number and teams receiving 10 points or more are 6-5 against the mark.

All that means is that worthy underdogs are out there; we’ve just got to find them.

Following is a quick breakdown of this weekend’s NFL card, as we look for three-to-five tasty underdog possibilities, plus a possible underdog parlay.

These teams were smacked around by a combined 103-14 score last week, with Indy especially embarrassed at New Orleans. The Colts had been competing better in previous weeks, especially after Curtis Painter took over for past sell-by-date Kerry Collins at QB, but they’re also winless at 0-7. A case can be made that it’s the nature of the NFL for teams to rebound from particularly horrific defeats, and at least RB Joseph Addai has returned to the Colts’ lineup. Meanwhile, the Titans still can’t run the football (only 65 ypg), as RB Chris Johnson might as well have continued his holdout. Even with Indy’s problems, the Titans look an unconvincing favorite to us.

Which "buy" signal do we prefer from last week? Although we admire the pluck the Jags showed vs. the Ravens, the offense was still held without a TD, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew continued to be plagued by fumble-itis. J’ville is also scoring only 13 ppg, and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is slowly exposing rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to the full Jag playbook. The Texan "D" is much improved for under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, and Houston has covered 4 of the last 5 at Reliant Stadium vs. the Jags. There’s a case to be made for Jacksonville, but the Jags are hardly a preferred underdog this week.

Plenty of encouragement in Minnesota with rookie QB Christian Ponder impressing in his first start last week vs. Green Bay. The problem is that Carolina’s Cam Newton has a six week head-start on Ponder and has been posting big numbers all season. By the way, the Panthers have already faced Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert and Washington’s John Beck in their first starts this season, and now get to face Ponder in his second start. We’re a little reluctant to buck suddenly-potent Carolina, which has covered five of its last six outings.

To paraphrase the late, great Henry Youngman, "Take the Rams...please!" No wins or covers yet for the horned helmets in six tries this season, and they’re barely scoring more points (6.8 ppg last four outings) than the hometown NHL Blues. Plus, we’re not sure if QB Sam Bradford will be ready to return from his high ankle sprain, which might mean another week of A.J. Feeley piloting the offense. Meanwhile, the Saints scored 62 points last week vs. the Colts. Do you really want St. Louis?

The hefty price makes us take a look. But it’s not an easy case to make for Arizona, especially since the Cards have been struggling so badly of late on the road, dropping 11 of their last 13 spread decisions as a visitor, the majority of those as a dog. Arizona, likely minus RB Beanie Wells and still waiting for the light to come on for QB Kevin Kolb, also runs into an angry Ravens team off an uncharacteristic flat effort Monday at Jacksonville. Baltimore has won all three of its home games (vs. foes better than the Cards) by 15 or more, too. Not interested in this dog.

There used to be a time when we would automatically go with the Dolphins as a road dog under coach Tony Sparano. We’re a lot more reluctant these days, however, with the winless Dolphins now sinking into Biscayne Bay, without a real QB and with Sparano’s neck in the noose. The Giants are rested off of their bye week and should get bruising RB Brandon Jacobs back into the lineup. Eli Manning is always apt to melt down when least expected, so maybe the Dolphins get a look at this game. But hardly a top-tier dog recommendation this week.

WASHINGTON +6 vs. BUFFALO (at Toronto)
The Redskins aren’t winning any eye tests with John Beck at QB. And now with injuries piling up elsewhere on the offensive side (RB Tim Hightower out for the season, WR Santana Moss out perhaps until December), Mike Shanahan’s days without interference from Dan Snyder might soon be coming to an end. Buffalo, however, might start coming back to the pack after two losses in its last three games, and high-priced LB Shawne Merriman (though a bit of a bust thus far) is now out. Jim Haslett’s 3-4 Skins defense has mostly held up this season, so the case for this dog in neutral territory in Toronto makes some sense.

This one is too tough of a call until we get a more-definitive update on the status of Lions QB Matthew Stafford. At midweek, many Las Vegas books didn’t even have this game posted while awaiting word on Stafford. If not Stafford, vet Shaun Hill likely gets the call against Tim Tebow and the Broncos.

It’s not often that we get a Mike Tomlin-coached team plus the points. Although he’s 0-2 as a dog this season, he was 9-4 as the "short" entering 2011. Big Ben seems to be shaking his foot injuries, and this is hardly a vintage Bill Belichick defense in New England. A very valid case can be made for the Steelers as an underdog this week.

Cleveland has covered just two of its last 14 games on the board since mid-2010, its offense is unsightly, and the host 49ers are the NFL’s hottest team. Maybe San Francisco comes out flat after the bye week, but to take the Browns just for underdog’s sake doesn’t appeal to us.

Cincy has enough depth at RB with vets Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard to compensate for Cedric Benson’s suspension this week. What the Bengals don’t have is a lot of experience at QB with rookie Andy Dalton calling the signals. Pete Carroll’s Seattle offense, regardless of its QB (is there much difference between Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst?), can play better than it did last week when scoring three points at Cleveland. The rowdy Seahawk defense, the loud fans at intimidating Qwest Field, and Carroll’s 8-3 home spread mark since last season make a rather compelling case for this dog.

Dallas’ string of 11 straight games decided by four points or fewer was finally broken last week in the 34-7 win over St. Louis. Cowboys games are still as likely to be as exciting as a James Bond movie (is Jerry Jones really considering signing Sean Connery?), and they’re 6-0 as an underdog since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips as head coach. We all know the Eagles’ shortcomings, so Dallas looks like a dog with some real teeth at the Linc on Sunday night.

Don’t look now, but the Chiefs, considered to be in the running for Andrew Luck less than a mo nth ago, can pull level for the AFC West lead with a win on Monday night. Throw out wins at outmanned Denver the past three seasons, and San Diego is 1-6 vs. the line its last seven as road chalk. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel looks like he is beyond the withdrawals he seemed to be suffering when offensive coordinator Charlie Weis departed in the offseason. The Chiefs are a very live dog on Monday night.


OTHER UNDERDOGS WORTH A LOOK: Indianapolis, Washington, Pittsburgh.

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cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
10/26/2011 03:55 PM

Baltimore Ravens Heavy Favorites Vs Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has covered the spread in just three of the last 14 road games.
There’s a bit of history between these franchises, mostly from previous incarnations.

For years, this was the old Chicago and then St. Louis football Cardinals vs. the original Cleveland Browns. Their rivalry was a spirited one in the ‘60s, when the Big Red and Brownies were contenders in the NFL’s old Eastern Conference.

Now, though, it’s the Baltimore Ravens (SUR 4-2, PSR 4-2), who are indeed the "old" Browns, and the Arizona Cardinals (SUR 1-5, PSR 2-4) also known as Chicago, St. Louis and Phoenix in previous identifications. The modern-day versions of both franchises get together on Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium, adjacent to Camden Yards and close to Baltimore’s Inner Harbor, a lovely place to spend a fall afternoon.

Except we’re not sure it’s going to be all that lovely for the Big Red this weekend. The majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets have posted the Ravens as 13-point favorites, with 44s mostly popping up for the total. Kickoff in Baltimore is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET) on Sunday, with FOX providing the TV coverage.

Indeed, this was one of the more-colorful rivalries in the NFL in the ‘60s, especially a period between 1963-68, when both were annual contenders. Tensions really mounted in the mid ‘60s, especially in 1964, when the Cardinals valiantly tried to chase down the Eastern Conference-leading Browns in the last half of the season. A Cards’ 28-19 win in the snow at the old Busch Stadium (Sportsman’s Park) in December of ‘64 was enough of a story to grace the cover of Sports Illustrated the following week, pulling St. Louis with a half-game of Blanton Collier’s Cleveland with one game to go in the regular season.

The Browns, however, beat the aging Giants the next Saturday to sew up the East before beating the old Baltimore Colts to win the NFL title.

There were no such dramatics the next season in 1965 when the Browns again won the East and the Cardinals collapsed in a hail of injuries, but not before the Big Red won an early season game at old Municipal Stadium by a 49-13 count. Cleveland won a meaningless regular-season finale in the final football game played at old Busch Stadium, 27-24, an affair more noted for the great Jim Brown getting ejected in his final regular-season game for kicking Cards DE Joe Robb, for whom Brown had waited all season to mete his own brand of justice after a perceived cheap shot in the first meeting.

When the NFL split its conferences into four divisions in 1967, the old Browns and Cards were placed into the Century Division, where they competed through 1969, and up to the merger in 1970. Again, the Cards were usually giving chase to the Browns, especially in 1968, when in a near carbon-copy of 1964, they tried to collar the Browns with another late-season rally. This one, led by 2nd-year QB Jim Hart while starter Charley Johnson was involved with the Army, also fell a half-game short, although the Cards beat the Browns in both meetings that season.

When Cleveland moved to the AFC along with the Colts and Steelers in 1970, however, the days of the rivalry ended, but not before creating some lasting memories from the 60s.

The teams meet infrequently these days, and the Sunday clash near the Chesapeake features two teams looking to bounce back after losing efforts last week.

Which is more likely to forge a turnaround on Sunday?

The case for Arizona might be a more difficult one to make, especially since the Big Red has been struggling so badly on the road for coach Ken Whisenhunt. Indeed, in their last 14 games as a visitor, the Cards have covered only three. They have lost the last ten of those straight up as well. And their last two outings away from the desert have been particularly unnerving, including an unwatchable 13-10 loss at Seattle and a 34-10 blowout defeat at Minnesota, the Vikes’ only win to date this season.

Arizona is still waiting for a return on its considerable investment in QB Kevin Kolb, who continues to blow hot and cold and miss open receivers. Whisenhunt believes poor fundamentals, especially footwork, are hindering Kolb, who did not have a full offseason to work with Whisenhunt and the Cardinal system. Having thrown as many picks (7) and TDs in six games, the clock is ticking on Kolb, who in his 313 career pass attempts has thrown 21 picks and been sacked 39 times, not to mention losing 8 fumbles.

Which means something bad has happened 22% of the time when Kolb has passed in his career.

Of further concern to Arizona is a knee injury suffered by top RB Beanie Wells last week vs. Pittsburgh, likely to keep him out of action on Sunday. Whisenhunt has also indicated lineup changes are due an underachieving defense, with sources saying vet OLBs Joey Porter and Clark Haggans are in danger of being sent to the bench.

Baltimore is not a very happy bunch, either, after a wretched offensive performance on Monday at Jacksonville in a shock 12-7 loss tot he underdog Jags. Joe Flacco had no receivers getting open in a night that saw Baltimore generate only 146 total yards.

But the Ravens have played well at home this season, winning and covering all three tries in dominating fashion vs. the playoff caliber Steelers, Jets and Texans, none closer than 15 points. The Ray Lewis-led defense, though a bit troubled by Jag RB Maurice Jones-Drew, mostly looked its robust self on Monday and should be able to disrupt Kolb much as Pittsburgh did last week in Glendale.

Expect a better Baltimore offensive showing on Sunday, with coordinator Cam Cameron likely to make sure RB Ray Rice gets more than eight touches, which even caught the attention of OLB Terrell Suggs, who openly questioned the offense and lack of involvement by Rice after Monday’s loss in Jacksonville.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: