cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 04:27 PM

Virginia at Miami, Fl.

October 26, 2011

Matchup: Virginia (4-3) at Miami (4-3)
Venue: Sun Life Stadium – Natural Grass
Date: Thursday, Oct. 27
Time/TV: 8:00 pm ET - ESPN
Line: Miami -13, o/u 48.5

I guess what it took to get Arizona to play up to their potential was for Mike Stoops to get fired. That must be the case because the Wildcats looked like a remarkably different team last Thursday night than the one that had consistently underperformed in 2011 and for much of 2010. When the final gun sounded, ‘Zona had stomped UCLA 48-12, easily covering the number (-4) and raising my Thursday night record in 2011 to 5-3 (63%).

Then again, maybe it had nothing to do with Mike Stoops and the reality is the Bruins are just that awful. Seriously, I know he is an alum and all but how much longer can head coach Rick Neuheisel be employed?

Moving on to this Thursday, let’s hop on a plane and head back East, specifically down to South Florida and take a look at Miami and Virginia.

Both programs are in the midst of rebuilding with new coaches and both have shown flashes of excellence and mediocrity so far in 2011. Mike London, in his 2nd year at Virginia, and Al Golden, in his first season at Miami, are very familiar with one another from their time together on Al Groh’s staff at Virginia. Since that time, London went to Richmond where he won a 1-AA National Championship with the Spiders and thus punched his ticket for a bigger job. Golden, meanwhile, went to Temple and turned the Owls into a winner after years of being a doormat and in the process made himself a very attractive coaching candidate.

While both programs sit at 4-3, it is the home team Hurricanes who have looked better as of late. Last weekend, the Miami rush defense, which entered the game ranked 94th in the nation, held Georgia Tech and its second-ranked rushing attack to 134 yards on the ground and just 211 total yards. And if the Yellow Jackets can’t run they are pretty much sunk and accordingly Miami cruised to an easy 24-7 win.

That win coupled with the victory over North Carolina the previous week gave Miami their first back-to-back victories since they beat Maryland and Georgia Tech in mid-November of 2010. Now, all that stands between the Hurricanes first three game winning streak since 2009 is a Virginia team which struggled mightily last week against North Carolina State.

The Cavaliers looked like they were trending in a positive direction when they defeated Georgia Tech 24-21 on Oct. 15. However, it was a case of “one step forward and two steps back” as they regressed a week later in a 28-14 home loss to the Wolfpack. Against NCST, Virginia managed just 12 first downs and an average of 3.7 yards per play - 249 total yards - on offense, the lowest offensive output in London's two seasons.

What’s tougher to accept for the Cavs is that “production” came against a banged-up Wolfpack defense that was starting its fourth combination in six games along the defensive line due to injuries.

The root of Virginia’s problems on offense stem from the fact that London just can’t seem to settle on a starting quarterback. It is never a good sign for a team to rotate QB’s throughout a game but that is just what London has done so far in 2011 with sophomore Michael Rocco – a traditional pocket passer – and true freshman David Watford – more of an athlete at the QB position. Their two differing skill sets have rarely added up to efficient production as the numbers from the NC State game would indicate. Rocco and Watford combined to go 11 for 35 for 125 yards against the Wolfpack.

Now the Cavaliers duo at QB must face a rapidly improving Miami defense led by Sean Spence. The senior linebacker has 65 total tackles (10th nationally), 9.5 tackles for loss (7th nationally), three sacks and a forced fumble and has been named one of the 12 semifinalists for the Butkus Award, honoring the nation's best LB. Spence and company will look to corral a Virginia rushing game featuring Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, and Clifton Richardson.

There was some QB controversy at the start of the season for Miami as many thought Stephen Morris might overtake Jacory Harris but Golden has stuck with the oft criticized Harris and he is starting to pay dividends. The offensive numbers aren’t huge – Miami only boasts the 79th ranked offense in college football – but the decision making process for Harris is much better and most importantly, the interceptions are way down.

It certainly helps to have a great running back to hand off to and Lamar Miller appears to be the next in a long line of talented Hurricane backs. Miller will be the focal point of the offense on Thursday night and will be tested against a Virginia defense ranked 19th in the country.

Thursday’s Betting Notes:

Virginia is 2-5 against the spread The Cavs have played four straight at home (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
UVA is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road, with the lone win coming against Indiana (34-31), who is 1-7 overall.
Miami is 4-3 ATS this season The Hurricanes have gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home.
The two non-covers came as double-digit favorites against Kansas State (24-28) and Bethune Cookman (45-14).
The home team has won the last two encounters.
The total has gone 2-2 in the last four encounters but the ‘over’ is 2-0 in the last two from South Florida.
No look-ahead for Miami, with Duke on deck next week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 04:30 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/26/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/25/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
10/22/11 22-­25-­0 46.81% -­2750 Detail
10/21/11 3-­0-­1 100.00% +­1500 Detail
10/20/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
10/18/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-­31-­3 51.56% -­550 Detail
10/14/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
10/08/11 29-­19-­0 60.42% +­4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
10/01/11 55-­45-­2 55.00% +­2750 Detail
Totals 153-­131-­6 53.87% +4450

Thursday, October 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Rice - 8:00 PM ET Houston -27.5 500

Houston - Over 71 500

Virginia - 8:00 PM ET Virginia +13.5 500

Miami - Under 48.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 10:36 PM

Georgia-Florida resume rivalry in Jacksonville


Jacksonville Municipal Stadium - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgia -3, Total 48.5

No. 22 Georgia and slumping Florida square off for their yearly meeting in Jacksonville, FL on Saturday afternoon.

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has been an annual celebration for Florida, which has won 11 of the past 13 meetings (8-4-1 ATS) with Georgia. But currently, it’s the Gators that are doing the losing (three straight SU and ATS defeats), while the Bulldogs are riding a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS). The one non-cover was last week’s 33-28 win at Vanderbilt behind 326 yards and 3 TD from Aaron Murray. The Gators offense has been dreadful, scoring a total of 27 points during the three-game skid, but QB John Brantley (ankle) is expected to return to the field. Turnovers could go a long way in determining the winner here. Florida’s last defensive turnover occurred more than 13 quarters ago, and Georgia has only two multi-TO games this year. The Gators offense has 10 giveaways in the past four weeks, while Georgia’s defense has nine takeaways in its past four contests. The pick here is GEORGIA.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Bulldogs:

Mark Richt is 30-19 ATS (61.2%, +9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of GEORGIA. The average score was GEORGIA 26.7, OPPONENT 22.0.

Murray is eager to avenge last year’s 34-31 loss to Florida when he tossed three interceptions to ruin a 313-yard, 3-TD effort. The sophomore has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of his seven games this season, totaling 16 TD and 7 INT on the year. RB Isaiah Crowell used the bye week to rest his injured wrist and he should be able to start this rivalry game. The freshman has three 100-yard games against SEC opponents already, but has been held to 93 yards on 29 carries (3.2 YPC) in the past two games.

Georgia’s defense ranks sixth in the country in yardage (273 total YPG) and has been especially proficient in defending opponents’ aerial attacks. The Bulldogs rank sixth in passing efficiency defense (97.90) and ninth in passing yardage (171 YPG).

Florida has not lost four straight games since 1988. Brantley will certainly give his team a boost, but he did not have a great game in Jacksonville last year, completing 16-of-25 passes for 193 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He has not reached 230 passing yards in any of his five games, but Brantley’s 9.2 yards per attempt ratio is pretty strong. The bye week also helped Jeff Demps heal from his bum ankle. Demps is averaging 8.3 YPC this season and he had 81 total yards and a touchdown against the Bulldogs last year. The Gators are hopeful Demps will inject some life into a ground game that has 194 rushing yards (64.7 per game) in its past three contests. Leading rusher Chris Rainey (500 rush yds) has only 89 yards (2.2 YPC) since piling up three straight 100-yard games earlier in the year. But Rainey had 241 all-purpose yards in last year’s meeting with Georgia, and could be a huge factor again on Saturday.

Other than its lack of turnovers, Florida’s defense has been mostly good this year. The Gators allowed a ton of yards to the nation’s top two teams (Alabama and LSU), but held Auburn to 278 total yards last week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 10:37 PM

No. 12 Wisconsin travels to Ohio State


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Wisconsin -7, Total: 51

After seeing its unbeaten season disappear with a Hail Mary loss at Michigan State, No. 12 Wisconsin tries to bounce back with another tough road game, at well-rested Ohio State coming off a bye.

The Badgers are scoring 47.4 PPG (5th in nation), and had been allowing 9.7 PPG (3rd in nation) before MSU hung 37 against them. The Buckeyes won their last game at Illinois thanks to 114 rushing yards from Dan Herron making his season debut after being suspended for six games. The Badgers have won three of the past five meetings in Columbus and also beat OSU 31-18 last year in Madison. Although Ohio State has been the best bet in BCS conference play since 2006 (29-13 ATS, 69%), Wisconsin had covered eight straight Big Ten games before its loss to MSU. The Badgers have the personnel to limit OSU’s ground game and force the Buckeyes to throw with their pathetic passing game. Play on WISCONSIN to win and cover.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Badgers:

WISCONSIN is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game since 1992. The average score was WISCONSIN 36.1, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 4*).

QB Russell Wilson threw two costly interceptions in last week’s loss, but he hasn’t made many other mistakes this year, ranking second in the nation in passing efficiency (16 TD, 3 INT). RB Montee Ball is 15th in the nation with 110 rushing YPG and he has been even more dominant in Big Ten play, rumbling for 408 yards (6.6 YPC) and 8 TD in three conference games. Ball did not play against OSU last year, but James White did, gaining 75 rushing yards and a touchdown in the 31-18 win. White is averaging 5.7 YPC this season with four touchdowns. WR Nick Toon leads the team with 505 receiving yards and 6 TD, and his 72 receiving yards against the Buckeyes last year was a season high for him.

Wisconsin currently ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (13.6 PPG) and is fourth in passing defense (166 YPG). The Badgers should have little problem stifling an OSU passing game that has been comically bad the past five games, completing 30-of-80 passes for a total of 413 yards.

Ohio State freshman Braxton Miller (26-of-51, 403 yards, 5 TD 2 INT) will likely start under center on Saturday. Miller is much more dangerous running the football, with 91 yards at Nebraska and 83 yards against Colorado. The main ball carrier will be Dan Herron, who was effective against Illinois (5.0 YPC) and also rushed for 91 yards with two touchdowns against Wisconsin last year. TE Jake Stoneburner has only 12 catches this year, but six have been for touchdowns.

Defensively, OSU has been pretty sound this season with the exception of surrendering 34 points at Nebraska. The Buckeyes rank 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.3 PPG) and 16th in yardage (305 YPG). They have forced 11 turnovers in the past five games, but Wisconsin is veteran team that does not cough up the ball easily (5 TO in seven games).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 10:39 PM

USC tries to end Stanford's 15-game win streak

at USC TROJANS (6-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -7.5, Total: 59.5

No. 4 Stanford puts the nation’s longest win streak to a stiff test when it visits No. 20 USC on Saturday night.

Stanford has won 15 straight games, including 25-point victories in each of the past 10 contests. The Cardinal ran all over Washington last week (school-record 446 yards), and Andrew Luck will certainly be able to pick apart USC’s 104th-ranked pass defense (265 YPG) to add to his gaudy career numbers against the Trojans: 32-of-46, 429 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT. Stanford’s win streak began last year when it edged USC on a last-second field goal. Defensively, the Cardinal rank in nation’s top-5 in scoring (12.6 PPG), rushing (76 YPG), sacks (3.6 per game) and Tackles For Loss (8.1 per game), which is enough to make USC QB Matt Barkley very uncomfortable in the pocket. STANFORD will win this game by at least two touchdowns.

This rare six-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Cardinal:

STANFORD is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 45.3, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 6*).

Stanford ranks second in the nation in scoring at 48.6 PPG and has put up a healthy 47.8 PPG in its five conference tilts. The Cardinal also rank ninth in the nation with 504 total YPG. Luck, who is given the responsibility to call most of the plays, has been consistently excellent all year, and now has 10 straight games with at least two touchdown passes. For the season, Luck is completing 72% of his passes for 270 passing YPG, 20 TD and 3 INT. Four players have at least 300 receiving yards, but none has more than 400. Coby Fleener leads the team with 384 yards and 7 TD, while Chris Owusu has a team-high 30 catches. RB Stepfan Taylor has rushed for 561 yards (7.1 YPC) with five total TD in the past five games, including 138 on just 10 carries against Washington. Tyler Gaffney had 117 yards on nine carries last week and Anthony Wilkerson added 93 rushing yards (6.6 YPC) and two touchdowns.

Although Washington ran up 172 yards on Stanford in last week’s 65-21 blowout, the Cardinal have held five opponents to 60 rushing yards or less. The passing defense has also improved, allowing 218 YPG in the past four weeks.

USC is fresh off impressive road wins at Cal (30-9) and Notre Dame (31-17). The Trojans continue to beat teams through the air with QB Matt Barkley (19 TD, 4 INT) and star WR Robert Woods, who ranks second in the nation with 72 catches and 129 receiving YPG. Woods has been bothered by an ankle injury, but he is expected to start Saturday night. The key to this game will be whether the RB duo of Marc Tyler and Curtis McNeal can balance the passing attack with a decent ground game. USC rolled up 219 rushing yards at Notre Dame, as the pair combined for 185 yards on 37 carries (5.0 YPC).

The Trojans are getting their defensive rankings to more respectable levels after the past two weeks (43rd in yardage at 356 YPG, T-38th in scoring at 22.6 PPG) because the defense is figuring out how to create turnovers. After just three takeaways in the first four games of the season, USC has forced 10 TO in the past three weeks. However, Stanford has only given the ball up five times in its seven games this year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 10:43 PM

Games to Watch - Week 9

October 26, 2011

Saturday - Michigan State at Nebraska (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Nebraska installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 49 ½. The Spartans are plus-155 on the money line. Mark Dantonio's team has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including last week's 37-31 win over previously-unbeaten Wisconsin on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. Senior QB Kirk Cousins threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns without being intercepted. For the season, Cousins has an 11/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Nebraska came off its open date to trash Minnesota 41-14 last week. The Cornhuskers are unbeaten in four home games, but they are 0-4 ATS in those four contests. On Bo Pelini's watch since 2008, Nebraska has a 9-15 ATS record in 24 games as a home 'chalk.' As a road underdog during Dantonio's five-year tenure, MSU owns a 6-5 spread record. The 'over' is 4-3 overall for Nebraska this year, 3-1 in its home games. As for the Spartans, they have seen the 'under' go 5-2 overall, 2-0 in its road assignments. Since 1995, these schools have met three times with Nebraska winning each meeting by a combined score of 122-27.

Saturday - Oklahoma at Kansas State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny
As of Wednesday, most books were listing Oklahoma as a 13 ½-point favorite with a total of 58 ½. Bob Stoops' team is looking to bounce back from a stunning 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 29-point home favorite. Landry Jones threw five TD passes, but the Sooners allowed 572 yards of total offense to the Red Raiders. Kansas St. is one of the nation's biggest surprises, racing out to a 7-0 record while hooking up its backers at a 6-1 ATS clip. The Wildcats have been getting stellar play from junior QB Collin Klein, who has rushed for four TDs and threw for another in last week's 59-21 win at Kansas. Klein has rushed for 14 TDs and has an 8/3 TD-INT ratio. K-St. owns an 8-3 spread record in its last 11 home 'dog situations under Bill Snyder (spanning two separate terms). Since he took back over in 2009, the Wildcats have won outright in five of eight home 'dog spots. OU has won four in a row over K-St., but the Wildcats are 4-2 versus the number in the last six head-to-head meetings.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

Florida vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville) - As of Wednesday, most spots had Georgia listed as a three-point 'chalk' with a total of 49. Florida has won 18 of the last 21 head-to-head meetings dating back to Steve Spurrier's arrival at UF in 1990. Will Muschamp was on the losing end of four of those games when he played at UGA. Muschamp's first UF team has lost three in a row both SU and ATS, and it is in dire need to get back senior QB John Brantley, who hasn't played since the loss to Alabama. Brantley and RB Jeff Demps are both listed as 'probable' vs. UGA. Mark Richt's team has won five straight, going 4-1 ATS, since losing its first two games to Boise St. and South Carolina. The Dawgs won a 33-28 decision at Vandy their last time out, but the Commodores blocked a punt in the final minute that nearly led to a miraculous comeback win. Georgia QB Aaron Murray has a 16/7 TD-INT ratio. The 'over' has hit in four straight games between these bitter rivals.

Baylor at Oklahoma State - As of Wednesday, most books had Oklahoma St. listed as a 13 ½-point favorite with a total of 79 (highest in CFB all year!). Baylor has 5/1 odds to win outright at the Las Vegas Hilton. Mike Gundy's squad easily ended Missouri's 10-game winning streak at home by blasting the Tigers 45-24 last week. Brandon Weeden threw for 338 yards and three TDs, while Joseph Randle rushed for 138 yards and three scores. Baylor had an open date after losing 55-28 at Texas A&M. The Bears, who are 0-2 both SU and ATS on the road, are led by QB Robert Griffin III, who has 22 TD passes and only two interceptions. They are 8-6 ATS as road 'dogs under Art Briles. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 for Baylor this year, while OSU has seen the 'over' go 3-3-1 overall, 2-1 in its home outings. OSU has won the last five head-to-head meetings both SU and ATS.

Illinois at Penn State - Most spots are listing PSU as a five-point 'chalk' with a total of 40 ½. The Nittany Lions have won six in a row since suffering their lone loss of the year vs. Alabama. They are off a 34-24 win at Northwestern as 4 ½-point favorites. Silas Redd was the catalyst with 164 rushing yards and one TD on just 18 carries. QB Matt McGloin threw a pair of TD passes without an interception. Illinois has dropped back-to-back games since starting 6-0. The Illini are in the midst of a 1-4 ATS slide, but it is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road 'dog under Ron Zook. PSU has watched the 'under' go 6-1-1 overall this year, while Illinois has seen the 'under' go 5-3. The 'over' has hit in four straight games between these Big Ten rivals. When these schools met last year, the Illini cruised to a 33-13 win as a nine-point underdog.

Wisconsin at Ohio State - Wisconsin had better shake off its first loss fast with this trip to The Shoe looming. Most books have the Badgers installed as seven-point favorites with a total of 50 ½. The Buckeyes are plus-235 on the money line. They are 2-2 ATS in four home underdog situations dating back to 2001. Ohio St. has had two weeks to prep for this game after beating previously-unbeaten Illinois by a 17-7 count as a three-point underdog. Wisconsin is 8-7-1 ATS as a road favorite under Brett Bielema. The 'over' is 5-2 overall for the Badgers, but the 'under' is 5-2 for the Bucks. Wisconsin beat OSU 31-18 as a 3 ½-point home underdog in last year's encounter.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 10:45 PM

Big 10 Report - Week 9

Nebraska (-4) vs. Michigan State - 12:00 AM EST, ESPN

NEB: 6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: at Minnesota, W 41-14
MSU: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, W 37-31

This is arguably the Big Ten Game of the Year in the Legends Division. The winner has the inside track to play in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis. This was already a huge game for the Huskers as they won't want to lose to the two top teams in the Big Ten in their inaugural season as a member (already blown out by Wisconsin). It's an extremely tough situation for the Spartans, as they have to bounce back after last week's huge win and play in a hostile environment.

Michigan State delivered a win last week that will be shown in highlights for the next 50 years. With the score tied 31-31, MSU completed a Hail Mary pass as time expired to beat 6th ranked Wisconsin. The Spartans were actually outgained by the Badgers, but made big plays when it mattered. They blocked a punt for touchdown, blocked a field goal, forced a safety, and scored on a double-reverse. QB Cousins played his best game of the season, completing 22-of-31 passes for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Nebraska made quick work of Minnesota last week, rolling to a 34-0 halftime lead. The Huskers were able to cruise to an easy 41-14 win behind 515 total yards and 27 first downs. They recorded a defensive touchdown while holding the Gophers to just 254 yards and 11 first downs. It's hard to determine how strong a team is after dismantling the last place team in the Big Ten, but Nebraska certainly has some momentum as it returns home to face the Spartans after back to back wins over Ohio State and Minnesota (with a bye in between).

Michigan State is 8th in the nation in rush defense (89 YPG), but was torched for 220 yards (5.4) last week against Wisconsin. Nebraska is 7th nationally in rush offense, averaging 261YPG. Nebraska may be able to run the ball with success against MSU, but the main key here will be the passing game behind QB Martinez. Martinez is completing just 55% for 168 YPG with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Something to consider: MSU head coach Mark Dantonio is just 1-6 straight up in road/neutral games vs. ranked teams. Nebraska is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games.

Ohio State (+7) vs. Wisconsin - 8:00 PM EST, ESPN

OSU: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: BYE
WISC: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan State, L 31-37

This is not a good situation for the Badgers. Wisconsin must bounce back from a heartbreaking last second loss to Michigan State last week - a loss that eliminates them from National Championship contention and likely takes QB Wilson out of the Heisman running. To make matters worse, it will be their second-consecutive road night game in Columbus for OSU's homecoming. And the Buckeyes are off of a bye week and want revenge after Wisconsin upset then-#1 OSU last season (only defeat of the 2010 season).

The Badgers actually outplayed the Spartans last week, but let their guard down for 4-5 plays that turned the game in MSU's favor. Wisconsin had more yards and more first downs, but had a punt blocked (for touchdown), a field goal blocked, was forced into a safety, and allowed a Hail Mary touchdown. Wisco boasts the 8th best offense (511 YPG) in the nation, 5th scoring offense (47.4 PPG), 9th total defense (287 YPG allowed), and 6th scoring defense (13.6 PPG allowed).

Over the last five games, Ohio State QB's have completed just 30-of-79 passes (38%) for 83 YPG with five touchdowns and three interceptions (including just one completion in a 17-7 win over Illinois on Oct. 15). OSU's offense ranks 110th nationally in yards per game and 88th in scoring offense. The Buckeyes have remained competitive with a strong defense, but we're going out on a limb here and saying that OSU will need competent QB play to upset the Badgers on Saturday.

Ohio State already has as many losses this season as it had in 2009 & 2010 combined. The Buckeyes are off of a much-needed bye week and healthy for this season-defining game. A win here would put OSU in the mix in the Leaders division title and give them a ton of momentum for a favorable schedule ahead.

Something to consider: Ohio State has been a Big Ten home underdog just three times in the past 10 years. You'd have to go back to 1992 for the last time Ohio State was a touchdown-or-more underdog at home.

Penn State (-4.5) vs. Illinois - 3:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN2

PSU: 7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS - Last week: at Northwestern, W 34-24
ILL: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, L 14-21

After PSU's loss to #2 Alabama back on September 10th, everyone all but dismissed the Nittany Lions and their Big Ten title hopes. But here we are in the last week of October and Penn State is alone in first place of the Leaders division with a 4-0 conference mark. It's not always pretty, but the Lions simply continue to win games (five of their six straight wins have been by 10-points or less). A win here would give PSU seven-straight wins heading into its bye week.

This PSU stop-unit is as good as it gets. PSU is limiting its opponents to just 282 yards per game (8th nationally) and 13 points per game (5th) despite the early season loss of standout LB Mauti. The emergence of QB McGloin and RB Redd has greatly helped this struggling offense. McGloin has passed for seven touchdowns and just two picks over the last five games and Redd has rushed for 566 yards in four Big Ten games (142 YPG and 5.5 YPC) after just 303 rush yards in four non-conference games.

Illinois has dropped two straight games after a strong 6-0 start. The offense has failed to put up points in six of the last eight quarters (shutout in the first three quarters of back-to-back games). They've put up just 326 YPG and 21 total points in those two losses after averaging 448 YPG and 35 points per game in the first six games of the season.

Something to consider: Illinois won 33-13 at Penn State last year for its first ever win in State College. Prior to last year, Illinois was 0-6 in Happy Valley with the average margin of defeat of 16 PPG. They are 5-2 ATS in the previous seven meetings but just 3-11 straight up since 1993.

Michigan (-13) vs. Purdue - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2

MICH: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
PUR: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Illinois, W 21-14

Purdue has followed up every win with a loss this season and the Boilers will try to avoid that streak as they head into Ann Arbor after a breakthrough win over Illinois last week. The Wolverines are off of a bye week will try to avoid the 2nd half slide that has happened over each of the last two seasons. They started 4-0 in 2009 and 5-0 in 2010 before finishing both seasons a combined 3-13 (started 6-0 this season before last week's loss).

Defensively the Wolverines have respectable statistics and rankings, but this unit has struggled against the three best offenses it has faced. Against MSU, Notre Dame, and Northwestern the Wolverines have allowed 28 PPG, 173 rush YPG, and 428 total YPG (allowing 5 PPG, 124 rush YPG, and 267 total YPG against four other teams). Purdue's offense is improving, but isn't on par with the top half of the Big Ten.

Michigan was averaging 458 YPG and 38 PPG before managing just 250 yards and 14 points against MSU. QB Robinson totaled just 165 total yards (had been averaging 308 YPG). Robinson leads the Big Ten in rushing, but is also tops in interceptions and has had to leave in each of the last two games with injuries. Purdue is respectable on defense (40th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed) and saw some success against Robinson last season. The Boilers held him to just 176 passing yards and 68 rush yards (3.1 YPC) and forced four turnovers (2 interceptions and 2 fumbles).

Something to consider: Purdue won the last time here in 2009 to end an 18-game losing streak at the Big House. They've now covered three straight against the Wolverines.

Minnesota (+16) vs. Iowa - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

MINN: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, L 14-41
IOWA: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Indiana, W 45-24

Iowa bounced back after the three-point performance at Penn State by racking up 86 points in wins against Northwestern and Indiana the past two weeks. QB Vandenberg completed 26-of-38 passes with six touchdowns and just one interception in those two games while RB Coker has rushed for 263 yards (5.8 YPC) and four touchdowns. Both Vandenberg and Coker should have another big day against this defense that ranks 100th in yards allowed and 116th in points allowed.

Iowa still has a long way to go on defense as the Hawkeyes are surrendering 245 pass YPG (90th) and 162 rush YPG (68th). They have a chance to gain some confidence here against Minnesota. The Gophers have scored just 31 points the past three games and rank near the bottom in every major offensive category.

The Gophers don't have much to brag about these days. They came out of their bye week lifeless against Nebraska last week, falling behind 34-0 by halftime. Minnesota has now dropped four straight games and will be lucky to avoid a 1-11 season. They do, however, have possession of the Floyd of Rosedale trophy after last year's upset win over Iowa. Minnesota outgained Iowa by +168 yards and had +6 first downs.

Something to consider: Iowa has won eight of the last 10 in this series. The Hawkeyes were 12-1 ATS in this series from 1993-2005, but have failed to cover four of the last five - including last year's loss.

Indiana (+8.5) vs. Northwestern - 11:00 AM CST, Big Ten Network

IND: 1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS - Last week: at Iowa, L 24-45
NW: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 24-34

The nightmare season has continued for Northwestern. They've dropped five straight after a 2-0 start and need to win four of the final five games to become Bowl eligible. Indiana is already eliminated from Bowl contention as the Hoosier's only win this season came against FCS South Carolina State.

Northwestern is allowing 39 points per game in Big Ten play. The offense is gaining yards (405 per game) and putting up points (28 points per game), but until this defense starts creating stops, this team is going nowhere. QB Persa (75% with six touchdowns) can put up big numbers in this offense if he can stay healthy.

Indiana has lost four straight Big Ten games. The last three have been by 21, 52, and 21 points. Defensively the Hoosiers have allowed 41+ points in three straight games and this unit ranks at or near the bottom in every major statistical category. If there's a silver lining in all of this, it's that Indiana had a strong contribution from freshman QB Tre Robinson last week in his first start. Robinson passed for 197 yards and a score while rushing for 84 more.

Something to consider: Northwestern has won six of the last seven meetings. However, the largest margin in any of those games was 7 points - average margin of victory of 3.7 points per game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 10:47 PM


October 27, 2011

Texas Christian (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) hasn’t fared well on Fridays this season, suffering both of its losses in Friday night games. The Horned Frogs lost their season opener 50-48 at Baylor and then went down at home to SMU in overtime on Sept. 30.

TCU will make its third and final Friday night appearance this week at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington against Brigham Young. Most books are listing the Horned Frogs as 13-point favorites with a total of 56. Gamblers can take the Cougars to win outright for a plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

Gary Patterson’s team is coming off a 69-0 demolition of New Mexico as a 44 ½-point home favorite. The Horned Frogs limited UNM’s offense to just 85 total yards. QB Casey Paschall threw two touchdown passes and Matt Brown rushed for a pair of scores in the run-away-and-hide triumph.

BYU (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) has quietly won five in a row since an embarrassing blowout loss to arch-rival Utah at home. The Cougars have taken the cash in back-to-back outings, including last week’s 56-3 win over Idaho St. as 41 ½-point home favorites.

Riley Nelson has been the catalyst since replacing Jake Heaps as the starting QB. Nelson has 11 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions. He had three scoring strikes and wasn’t intercepted last week.

Two weeks ago, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad went to Corvallis and emerged with a 38-28 win over Oregon St. as a three-point underdog. Nelson torched the Beavers for 217 passing yards and three TDs and also had a team-high 87 yards on the ground.

Paschall, TCU’s sophomore signal caller, has done an excellent job in replacing Andy Dalton. He has completed 69.7 percent of his throws for 1,566 yards with a stellar 17/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

TCU is 3-1 SU at home this year, 2-2 ATS.

TCU has won three in a row against BYU, but the Cougars covered the spread in last year’s 31-3 home loss as 30-point underdogs. The Horned Frogs took the money in the two previous meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings between these schools.

BYU is 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. During Mendenhall’s seven-year tenure, the Cougars have posted a 7-6-1 spread record as a road underdog. Meanwhile, TCU owns a 32-20 ATS mark as a home ‘chalk’ under Patterson.

The ‘over’ is 6-1 overall for TCU. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for BYU, but the ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Cougars.

ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Oklahoma St. owns a 30-12-1 spread record when listed as a favorite during Mike Gundy’s tenure. The Cowboys are favored by 14 at home vs. Baylor this week.

--Florida has won 18 of the last 21 head-to-head meetings against Georgia.

--If I’m a Clemson fan, the one thing that scares me to death this weekend is that Paul Johnson might outclass Dabo Swinney in the coaching department. The Yellow Jackets return home after dropping back-to-back road games, so they’re in desperation mode at home vs. Clemson. Most spots have the Tigers installed as 3 ½-point favorites. has Clemson with an 18/1 number to win the BCS Championship Game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 11:05 PM

BYU at TCU: What bettors need to know

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs (-13.5, 56)

The Cougars and Horned Frogs keep their old Mountain West Conference rivalry alive, despite the fact that BYU is rolling solo as an independent and TCU is heading to the Big 12 or the Big East... errr, somewhere next season.

"I consider this like a conference game, we've played BYU for so long,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson told the Star-Telegram. “I'd rather not play a non-conference game in the middle of the season but this is the only time we could work it out."

The respective religious schools collide on the grand stage that is Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas Friday night.


The Horned Frogs opened as 11.5-point favorites, and that spread has been bet up to 13.5 – just below the key number of two touchdowns. The total opened at 56 points and has remained fairly steady.


Brigham Young has been looking forward to erasing a 31-3 beating from TCU since it walked off the field at Amon G. Carter Stadium last October.

The Cougars were demolished in that game, especially quarterback Jake Heaps, who threw two interceptions and was sacked three times. BYU put up only 14 yards of offense in the first half of that loss, finishing with 147 total yards on the day.

Heaps, who has continued to struggle, has been replaced by junior passer Riley Nelson, who head coach Bronco Mendenhall announced as the team’s starter again this week.

"I see the game going, and the rotation going, as it has been going. I like the direction of our team offensively," Mendenhall told the Salt Lake Tribune. "Again, if the team were to struggle, and if we weren’t able to move the ball and score points, Jake would come in and perform. But I like the chance for the quarterbacks to get into rhythm and to play, and until proven otherwise, we will go down the same road we have been traveling, with Riley."

Nelson has been impressive since taking over under center. He’s completed almost 62 percent of his passes, thrown for 11 touchdowns (to just three interceptions), and, since becoming the No. 1 three games ago, has yet to have a three-and-out, with BYU punting only twice in possessions started with Nelson at QB.

Nelson is also a dangerous option on the ground, rushing for 284 yards, including 62 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 56-3 beating of FCS Idaho State.


Texas Christian flexed its offensive muscle with a 69-0 thumping of New Mexico last weekend, putting up over 500 total yards of offense in the win.

The Horned Frogs rank eighth in the country in scoring, averaging almost 44 points a game. In the case of TCU, it’s true that speed kills. It boasts the 18th-best rushing attack in the nation and is tied for 11th for most yards per play with 6.6.

"With the style of offense that they run and the kind of athletes that they have, it's one of those games where you have to do your assignment," BYU senior linebacker Jordan Pendleton told the Daily Herald. "Playing Idaho State you could maybe screw up once or twice and someone else would make the play but against these guys your can't.”

The TCU rushing attack is anchored by running backs Waymon James and Matthew Tucker. James, the speedier of the two, is fourth in the MWC with 450 yards on the ground, while Tucker, the smash-mouth short-yardage back, is third in the league in touchdowns, rumbling for seven scores this season.

On the wings, TCU has perhaps the fastest receiving corps in college football. Josh Boyce, who runs a 10.4 100-meter dash, has reeled in 604 yards receiving and five TDs. His partner, Skye Dawson, is the current MWC 100-meter champ at a time of 10.2 seconds and has grabbed 27 balls for 268 yards and three scores.

Sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall is second in the conference in passing, with 1,566 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. He threw for just 175 yards and two scores in the blowout over the Lobos last week.


Despite the prestige of playing in one of the greatest stadiums on the planet, TCU isn’t crazy about having a home game moved to Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The Horned Frogs are insisting that this be their final game played inside Jerry Jones’ cutting-edge setting.

"I'd have 40,000 in purple instead of it being 50-50," Patterson told reporters about playing in Arlington. "That's why we won't play people in the Big 12 over at Cowboys Stadium, if I get any say. Because I'd rather have home-field advantage. As soon as you go into Cowboys Stadium you no longer have home-field advantage."

Last season, the Horned Frogs drew 46,138 fans to Cowboys Stadium for their season opener with Oregon State, winning 30-21 but failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk. Brigham Young took on Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium in 2009, shocking the Sooners 14-13 as a 22.5-point pup in front of 75,437 fans.


* Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdog.
* Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six games as favorites

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/27/2011 11:07 PM

Friday’s betting tips: Big action coming in on TCU

Who’s hot

NCAAF: BYU is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 overall.

NHL: San Jose is 12-5 in its last 17 meetings with Detroit.

NHL: The over is 7-3 in St. Louis’ last 10 road games.

CFL: Toronto is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games against Winnipeg.

Who’s not

NCAAF: TCU is 0-5 against the number in its last five non-conference games.

NHL: Colorado is 6-22 in its last 28 home games.

NHL: Chicago is 2-8-1 in its last 12 games against Carolina.

CFL: The over is 0-3 in Winnipeg’s last three overall.

Key stat

56- About 56 percent of the NHL’s games heading into Thursday’s action have played under their posted totals. A little more than 57 percent of the games over the last week have played under.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - Johnson will be a game-time decision for this weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Head coach Gary Kubiak confirmed Jackson's status following Thursday's practice session. The All-Pro wideout hasn't played since suffering a strained hamstring in a Week 4 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Texans have been cautious with the 30-year-old, and ran him through a normal practice Thursday with no complications. Johnson has 25 catches for 352 yards and a pair of touchdowns this season. Houston is currently a 9.5-point favorite at home to Jacksonville Sunday.

Game of the day

Brigham Young at Texas Christian (-13.5, 56)

Notable quotable

"I see the game going, and the rotation going, as it has been going. I like the direction of our team offensively. Again, if the team were to struggle, and if we weren’t able to move the ball and score points, Jake would come in and perform. But I like the chance for the quarterbacks to get into rhythm and to play, and until proven otherwise, we will go down the same road we have been traveling, with Riley." – BYU coach Rocco Mendenhall on junior Riley Nelson starting again Friday and likely playing the entire game. The team hasn’t had a three-and-out since Nelson took over Jake Heaps more than three games ago.

Notes and tips

Texas Christian has been a strong bet at home for a long time, going 26-12 in its last 36 home games and bettors are lining up to bet the Horned Frogs Friday when they host BYU. As of Thursday night, almost 64 percent of Consensus bettors were backing TCU as 13-point favorites. BYU is 4-4 against the spread this season.

Formula One drivers' champion Sebastien Vettel has hinted at the possibility of letting Red Bull teammate Mark Webber overtake him at the season-ending Indian Grand Prix. A Webber victory would give Red Bull the top two spots in the standings, which would be a fitting end to a season in which the team ran away with the constructors' title. Vettel, who has won 10 of 16 races this season, said "scenarios" could be in play that would allow him to concede the lead to Webber. Vettel has previously said he didn't like the idea of helping out his teammate in that regard, but with history on the line has apparently capitulated.

South Carolina freshman running back Brandon Wilds will start Saturday's game against Tennessee. Wilds gets the start after stud running back Marcus Lattimore was sidelined for the remainder of the season with a ligament and cartilage damage in his left knee. Lattimore suffered the injury while blocking during the fourth quarter of a 14-12 victory over Mississippi State on Oct. 15. Wilds had five carries in his last two games and 13 for the season.

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford worked with the first-team offense during Thursday's practice session and is on track to start Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos. Stafford has been hobbled by an ankle injury but reportedly looked good in limited action Thursday. The 23-year-old rolled his ankle late in the Lions' 23-16 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. He appeared to move well in Wednesday's practice and should be able to suit up Sunday. Stafford has completed 60.2 percent of his passes this season, throwing for 1,912 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: