cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/25/2011 11:13 PM


Connecticut at PITT (Wednesday)...Underdog has won SU in 4 of last 5 in series. Year ago, Pitt led 21-20 in 4th Q before allowing 10 pts. over 49-sec. period due to fumbled KO return in 30-28 setback. Panthers glad to see Husky RB Jordan Todman leave early for the NFL after he scampered for 222 yds. in 2010.

Virginia at MIAMI-FLORIDA (Thursday)...Miami in mean mood after LY's mistake-filled (season-high 5 TOs!) 24-19 upset in Charlottesville. Hurricane QB Jacory Harris eager for another crack at UVA after leaving game in 2nd Q due to concussion. Miami backups threw combined 4 "picks!"

Rice at HOUSTON (Thursday)...Amped-up UH eager to regain possession of coveted Bayou Bucket after 34-31 upset loss vs. crosstown rival Rice LY (schools just 6 miles apart). Cougars' record-setting QB Case Keenum missed contest due to ACL injury suffered vs. UCLA. In last game at UH in '09, Cougs fried Rice 73-14 (UH led 59-0 at H).

Hawaii at IDAHO...UH has covered 6 of past 7 in series. Warrior HC Greg McMackin served as the Idaho d.c. from 1976-78.

Northwestern at INDIANA...IU is 5-1 as a home underdog since 2010 (2-1 TY), while NW only 1-7 as away favorite since 2008 (0-1 TY), including losses in Bloomington in '08 & '10.

Bowling Green at KENT STATE...New KSU mentor Darrell Hazell has been unable to reverse squad's pointspread downturn, as Golden Flashes only 4-13 last 17 on board (1-6 TY). Payback-minded BG hasn't dropped back-to-back series games since 1972-73!

Uab at MARSHALL...Since joining C-USA in 2005, MU has won 5 of 6 series meetings (4-2 vs. spread). Herd "D" limited UAB's top weapon RB Pat Shed to just 45 YR in 16 carries in 31-17 victory at Birmingham LY.

Boston College at MARYLAND...Last 4 in hotly-contested ACC clash decided by total of only 19 points. Maryland's new HC Randy Edsall served as Boston College DB coach from 1991-93.

Purdue at MICHIGAN...Both teams (5 TOs each) had trouble with rainy/windy conditions in West Lafayette LY, but UM QB Denard Robinson (accounted for 244 yds.) was least affected in 27-16 victory.

Iowa at MINNESOTA...Iowa irate going into 80th straight meeting in quest for the revered Floyd of Rosedale Trophy. Hawkeyes had won 8 of previous 9 meetings (6-3 vs. number) until stunning 27-24 upset in Iowa City LY.

Michigan State at NEBRASKA...First meeting since 2003 (Nebraska 17-3 win in Alamo Bowl), but MSU eager to beat NU for the first time after losing all 5 previous clashes.

Air Force at NEW MEXICO...Prior to LY's comfy but non-covering 48-23 home series romp (AF was 33-pt. chalk), Falcons had beaten spread in 6 straight vs. New Mexico.

Navy at NOTRE DAME...Navy has pulled off upsets in 3 of last 4 series meetings, including convincing 35-17 stunner in MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford LY. ND couldn't stop the FB dive in the Middie triple option, as FB Alexander Teich blasted for 210 yds. in 22 totes.

Baylor at OKLAHOMA STATE...Baylor tired of being used as a pinata in series, suffering 5 straight lopsided losses (avg. 47-15 score!). Bears, however, must find a way to cope with OSU's NFL-ready QB Brandon Weeden, who hit 34 of 42 for 435 yds. & 3 TDs in 55-28 home win LY.

Illinois at PENN STATE...Penn State fired-up to avoid first-ever back-to-back series losses. Nittany Lions' rush attack was unproductive (only 65 YR), primarily due to seriously banged-up OL in LY's homecoming 33-13 upset loss in "Happy Valley."

West Virginia at RUTGERS...WV has owned Big East series since mid '90s, capturing 16 straight. Mountaineer QB Geno Smith hit 23 of 28 for 352 in LY's 35-14 home victory vs. RU.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/26/2011 04:12 PM

UConn at Pitt

October 25, 2011

A pair of Big East schools, Pittsburgh and Connecticut, are going through trying seasons under first-year head coaches and will try to stay in the conference hunt when they square off Wednesday night at Heinz Field.

Most betting shops are listing Pitt (3-4 straight up, 2-5 against the spread) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 42. Gamblers can back the Huskies on the money line for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300).

Todd Graham’s squad has lost four of its last five games, including a 26-14 home loss to Utah as a six-point ‘chalk’ on Oct. 15. After winning its first two games, Pitt dropped a pair of heartbreakers at Iowa (31-27) and vs. Notre Dame (15-12) when it couldn’t hold on to fourth-quarter leads.

The Panthers bounced back from those defeats to play their best game Sept. 29 versus South Florida. They handed the Bulls their first loss of the year in blowout fashion, cruising to a 44-17 triumph as three-point home underdogs.

Since then, however, Pitt has lost twice by double-digit margins, going down 34-10 at Rutgers before the aforementioned loss to Utah.

Junior quarterback Tino Sunseri has had a disappointing campaign, throwing more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five). Junior running back Ray Graham has been one of the few bright spots, rushing for 945 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He also has a team-high 30 receptions for 200 yards.

UConn (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) is coming off its best effort of the season, dropping USF by a 16-10 count as a 7 ½-point home underdog. Dave Teggart booted three field goals and Byron Jones recovered a USF fumble and returned it 10 yards for a touchdown.

The focus of UConn’s offense is redshirt freshman RB Lyle McCombs, who has rushed for 705 yards and four TDs while averaging 4.0 YPC. Junior QB Johnny McEntee has 1,209 passing yards with a 6/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. McEntee’s favorite target is Isiah Moore, who has 27 receptions for 353 yards.

Pitt will be without starting sophomore safety Jason Hendricks, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, senior OT Lucas Nix will be a game-time decision due to a knee injury that’s kept him out of the last two games. On the bright side, starting LB Todd Thomas is expected to start after missing back-to-back contests.

When these schools met last year in Storrs, UConn captured a 30-28 win as a six-point home underdog. Teggart’s three field goals and Moore’s 14-yard TD catch midway through the final stanza were the difference.

The Huskies have covered the number in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools, including a 24-21 loss as 6 ½-point underdogs in the encounter at Pitt two years ago.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for UConn, 2-1 in its three road assignments this year. Pitt has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, 3-2 in its home games.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Virginia Tech will be without its best defensive player for the rest of the season. Junior MLB Bruce Taylor sustained a broken foot in last week’s 30-14 win over Boston College. The Hokies are now without three of their best defensive players for the rest of the year. has Alabama installed as a five-point home favorite for next week’s critical showdown vs. LSU. The website has Stanford marked as a 2 ½-point home favorite vs. Oregon for their Nov. 12 battle in Palo Alto. has Stanford QB Andrew Luck listed as the plus-150 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman Trophy. Other contenders include Alabama RB Trent Richardson (+450), Oklahoma St. QB Brandon Weeden (+600), Oklahoma QB Landry Jones (+700), Boise St. QB Kellen Moore (+700) and Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson (+700). has Alabama as the even-money favorite to win the BCS Championship Game. LSU has the second-shortest odds at plus-160, followed by Oklahoma State and Stanford, both of whom are carrying a plus-500 number. Boise St. has 12/1 odds and Clemson’s number is 18/1.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/26/2011 06:31 PM


Wednesday, October 26

Connecticut at Pittsburgh: What bettors need to know

Connecticut Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers (-10.5, 41.5)

THE STORY: Last season when Connecticut played Pittsburgh the teams had BCS aspirations. This year as the Panthers host the Huskies in a mid-week tilt, they're playing for .500. Both are 3-4 overall and 1-1 in the Big East, sharing victories over South Florida. However, no Big East team appears bulletproof – just ask West Virginia – so the winner here moves right back into league title contention.


LINE MOVES: Pittsburgh opened -10 and the spread has moved to 10.5. The total opened at 41.5 and climbed to 42.5 before coming back down to 41.

WEATHER: Rain is in the forecast for Heinz Field. There is a 65 percent chance of rain with a 100 percent chance in the second half. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 50s.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (3-4, 1-1 Big East, 2-5 ATS): The Huskies rebounded well to defeat the Bulls, 16-10, on Oct. 15, after being blitzed for 81 points in back-to-back losses to Western Michigan and West Virginia. As with UConn's other victories, defense was key, forcing four turnovers and stopping South Florida on fourth down late and in Huskies' territory. Their lone touchdown came from the defense, when cornerback Byron Jones returned a fumble for a score. Lyle McCombs continued his impressive freshman campaign, rushing for 130 yards against South Florida to bolster his total to 705 yards to go with four touchdowns.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (3-4, 1-1 Big East, 2-5 ATS): The Panthers' offense is a mess. Ray Graham is the nation's fifth-leading rusher (939 yards, nine TDs), but he hasn’t been able to make up for the team’s quarterback struggles. Junior Tino Sunseri and freshman Trey Anderson went a pitiful 9-for-29 for 40 yards in Pitt's 26-14 home loss to Utah on Oct. 15, in which the Panthers blew a 14-3 lead. They've produced just two offensive touchdowns in the last nine quarters (both by Graham).


1. UConn's biggest weapon could be senior kicker Dave Teggart, who's 6-for-7 on field goals the past two games and has four multiple field goal games this year.

2. Another poor Sunseri outing could have Pitt fans chanting for Anderson. Sunseri has seven picks against just five touchdown passes and has been sacked 32 times after Utah dropped him five times.

3. Graham fumbled a kickoff that set up UConn's final score in the Huskies' 30-28 triumph over Pittsburgh last season in East Hartford. UConn leads the series, 4-3.


* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.
* Panthers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference games.

PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 20, Connecticut 16 – A conservative Panthers' ground game and confident Huskies' squad should make for a tight, low-scoring affair.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/26/2011 06:32 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Wednesday's game

Underdogs covered last five UConn-Pitt games, with three of those five decided by 3 or less points- average total in last five series games is 57.2. Panthers scored 10-14 points in losing last two games; they've lost four of last five games, are 2-2 at home, beating Buffalo 35-16 (-20), South Florida 44-17 (+2.5). Huskies lost four of last six games; they're 1-2 on road, losing 24-21 (+2) at Vanderbilt, 43-16 (+20) at West Virginia- they won at Buffalo 17-3 (-9). Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in Big East play. UConn is 2-4 in last six games as road underdog. Pitt failed to cover its last four tries as a favorite.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/26/2011 06:33 PM


Week 9

Connecticut at Pittsburgh
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Pittsburgh is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10).


Game 103-104: Connecticut at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 82.137; Pittsburgh 98.981
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 17; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 41
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/26/2011 06:44 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/25/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
10/22/11 22-­25-­0 46.81% -­2750 Detail
10/21/11 3-­0-­1 100.00% +­1500 Detail
10/20/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
10/18/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/15/11 33-­31-­3 51.56% -­550 Detail
10/14/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/13/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
10/08/11 29-­19-­0 60.42% +­4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
10/01/11 55-­45-­2 55.00% +­2750 Detail
Totals 153-­129-­6 54.26% +5550

Wednesday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 8:00 PM ET Connecticut +10 500

Pittsburgh - Under 42 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/27/2011 04:17 PM


Week 9


Game 105-106: Virginia at Miami (FL) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 86.053; Miami (FL) 96.323
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 14; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+14); Under

Game 107-108: Rice at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 72.915; Houston 102.050
Dunkel Line: Houston by 29; 74
Vegas Line: Houston by 27; 70 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-27); Over


Game 109-110: BYU at TCU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 85.180; TCU 105.027
Dunkel Line: TCU by 20; 60
Vegas Line: TCU by 13; 56
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-13); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/27/2011 04:18 PM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we caught up with Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF live odds

Virginia at Miami -15.5 --->-13.5

Looks like this is yet another case of what have you done for me lately. The Hurricanes just drilled Georgia Tech 24-7 as a 2.5-point favorite while Virginia was spanked 28-14 at home by N.C. State, falling to 2-5 against the spread.

“This number came out slightly inflated based on Miami's big win over GT and UVA's home loss to NC State,” Fuhrman says. “These two teams are very inconsistent and typically alternate good efforts with clunkers so bettors saw value with the Wahoos above 14.”

Illinois at Penn State -6 ---> -4.5

Illinois has dropped two straight as a favorite and Penn State has covered only twice in its last 10 contests, so maybe it’s just a case of too many points with a pair of inconsistent teams squaring off.

“Did Illinois even leave Champaign last week? You wouldn’t know it by the level of effort they displayed,” Fuhrman says “Points could be at a premium in Happy Valley this week and when you talk about a total in the low 40's [currently 40.5] there's always going to be interest in betting a dog that can run the football.”

Baylor at Oklahoma State -16 ---> -14

Even though Oklahoma State has covered the number in each of its last six overall and in five straight meetings with Baylor, bettors aren’t buying the Cowboys. “Oklahoma State hasn't instilled bettors with a lot of confidence each of the past few weeks,” Fuhrman says. “Sharp money seems intent to bet against them again this week like they did against Missouri and Texas the week before. The Pokes’ wideouts are banged up and Baylor could have some surprises in store entering off a bye but this is still a Bears team with a Swiss cheese defense.”

NFL live odds

Washington at Buffalo -4 ---> -6

The Bills are coming off their bye week as they set out on their annual trip north of the border, while Washington only wishes it could erase last week from history considering all the injuries the Redskins picked up.

“Public money has poured in on Buffalo with all the injuries wreaking havoc on the Redskins offense,” Fuhrman says. “Washington lost Santana Moss, Tim Hightower, and Chris Cooley to major injuries and could find moving the football a challenge. However, I don't think the betting public is factoring in that this game will be played in Toronto and not at Ralph Wilson Stadium.”

Miami at New York Giants -9 ---> -10

The Giants are another club playing on the heels of their bye week and they couldn’t ask for a better matchup to ease back into action. Miami has yet to cover a pointspread this season.

“It's not going to take a lot for people to fade the Dolphins every week from here on out,” Fuhrman says. “The Fish will be a team we're going to struggle getting any public action on the rest of the season and until we inflate the price high enough, public money will fade them with reckless abandon.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/27/2011 04:19 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's games

Underdogs covered six of last seven Virginia-Miami games; Miami is 4-3 in last seven series games, but only one of four wins was by more than 10 points. Cavaliers lost two of last three visits here, losing 52-17 in last visit here two years ago; this is their first road game in six weeks- they're 10-7 in last 17 games as road underdog, 0-1 this year- they've turned ball over 18 times in last six games (-7). Miami is 18-34 as home faves since 2002, 2-1 this year; they beat North Carolina/Ga Tech last two games, after tough 38-35 loss at Va Tech. Four of last five Virginia games stayed under; three of last four Miami games went over.

Houston is 6-3 in its last nine games against crosstown rival Rice, but only one of last four series wins was by more than 17 points; Owls lost last four visits here, by average score of 53-24. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. Rice is 6-14 in last 20 games as road dog (1-3 this season), losing away games this year by 25-25-24-4 points, with a cover at Marshall. Houston is 7-0 and trying to run up scores in the rare chance they can get a BCS bowl bid; three of their last four wins are by 35+ points, but they've struggled at La Tech (35-34), UTEP (49-42), so they're lot better at home. Double digit favorites are 4-7 in C-USA play.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33240 Followers:38
10/27/2011 04:20 PM


Thursday, October 27

Thursday's college football action: What bettors need to know

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (-13.5, 48.5)

THE STORY: Virginia and Miami share a common victory over previously undefeated Georgia Tech. Both schools, though, have completely different goals for the second half of the season. The Cavaliers followed up that first win over a top-15 program since 2005 with an offensive hangover in a 28-14 loss to North Carolina State. They play three of their final five games on the road and might need every one to end a three-year postseason drought. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, strung together their first consecutive wins of the season over North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Now that lengthy suspensions are over for players such as defensive end Olivier Vernon, Miami has a realistic shot at finishing third in the ACC.


LINE MOVES: Miami opened as high as -15 at some books but currently sits around -13.5.

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds expected between 6-12 mph with a temperature of 78 degrees.

ABOUT VIRGINIA (4-3, 1-2 ACC): The Cavaliers’ two-quarterback system continues to puzzle fans and prevent an offensive rhythm. Michael Rocco and David Watford combined for just 11 completions against North Carolina State and failed to put together a drive of more than eight plays. In total, Virginia gained a season-low 249 yards against the ACC’s fourth-worst defense. The Cavs have just two second-half touchdown passes in conference play, choosing instead to rely on an improving defense and a power running game. The quarterbacks, though, may need to make more than a few crucial throws against Miami, which just limited Georgia Tech’s ground attack to half of its season average.

ABOUT MIAMI (4-3, 2-2 ACC): For as dumb as some Hurricanes acted off the field before the season, Al Golden’s crew is playing quite cerebral lately. Jacory Harris has thrown just one pick in his last 18 quarters and the team committed just one penalty in last week’s victory. Miami, though, still needs to play a full four quarters of offense. Harris completed just eight passes against the Yellow Jackets and hasn’t led the offense to a second-half touchdown the past two weeks.


1. Touchdowns could be a premium with Virginia and Miami ranked first and third in the ACC, respectively, in red zone defense.

2. The Cavaliers have committed seven turnovers in two road games.

3. Virginia had a span of six straight three-and-outs against North Carolina State. Miami, though, is second-to-last in the ACC in third-down defense, allowing teams to convert 45.9 percent.


- Virginia is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 conference games.
- Miami is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight home games.
- The under is 5-0 in Virginia's last five overall.

PREDICTION: MIAMI 18, VIRGINIA 12 – This will not be a passing clinic. None of the quarterbacks in this one have shown consistency through the air. Harris is facing the ACC’s most efficient pass defense while the Virginia duo has just seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In a game decided by kicking, Miami is booting the ball at 88.9 percent, while UVA has made just 68.8 percent of its field goal attempts.

Rice Owls at Houston Cougars (-27.5, 71)

THE STORY: No. 18 Houston enters this battle for the Bayou Bucket a perfect 7-0 and looking to equal the best start in program history. The Cougars’ spread passing attack is clicking once again, as they’ve scored at least 35 points in every game and 49 or more in the last four contests. The road team only has to travel 6.1 miles in this inner-city rivalry, but Rice’s last trip to Robertson Stadium in 2009 didn’t go so well. The Owls were pummeled 73-14, giving up the third-most points in school history and most since a 77-0 loss to LSU in 1977.
Houston leads the all-time series 26-11, dating back to 1971, including a 5-1 mark at Robertson Stadium.


LINE MOVES: Both the spread and the total are up a half point from their opening numbers, now sitting at Houston -27.5 with a 71-point total.

WEATHER: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and 12-17 mph winds. The game-time temperature should be around 60 degrees.

ABOUT RICE (2-5, 1-3 Conference USA): The Owls are in search of their first winning season since 2008, but they haven’t gotten off to a great start in conference play. In last weekend’s 38-20 home loss to Tulsa, Rice committed four turnovers and was outgained by 120 yards. The Owls, who had to face one of the nation’s toughest non-conference schedules, rank 115th nationally in total defense, giving up 472 yards per game, and their 96th-ranked pass defense isn’t a good matchup for Houston’s fast-paced attack.

ABOUT HOUSTON (7-0, 3-0 Conference USA): In the Cougars’ 63-28 pounding of Marshall last weekend, quarterback Case Keenum won his 19th straight home game. He’s tossed 66 touchdowns to only nine interceptions during that stretch. He spread the ball around beautifully against the Thundering Herd, throwing touchdowns to five different players. Houston enters this game with the nation’s top-ranked offense, averaging an astounding 606 yards. Keenum — recently named a Davey O’Brien Award semifinalist, given annually to college football’s best quarterback — is the national leader in total offense at 389 yards per game.


1. The home team has won the last four in this series, including Rice’s 34-31 upset victory last season.

2. Houston has more wins against Rice (26) than any other school in its 66-year history.

3. This is one of two FBS rivalries featuring teams located in the same city (USC-UCLA is the other), and this game will be played in the Texans’ Reliant Stadium in 2012 and 2013.


- Rice is 1-7 against the spread in its last eight road games.
- The over is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 home games.
- Houston is 4-0 against the spread in its last four home games.

PREDICTION: Houston 56, Rice 20. The Owls won’t be able to slow down Keenum and the Cougars, and this one could be over by halftime.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: