cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 04:32 PM

Troy-FIU look to snap ATS skids on Tuesday


Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida International -6

The two preseason favorites in the Sun Belt try to salvage disappointing seasons and climb up the conference standings when Troy visits Florida International on Tuesday night.

Neither of these schools has an ATS win in over a month, as both are suffering through four-game ATS losing skids. Troy’s offense has completely gone south in the past two games, as the Trojans have been outscored 69-27 during a two-game losing skid. FIU started the year 3-0, including victories over BCS schools Louisville and Central Florida, but the Golden Panthers are 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) in their past four games, allowing 101 points in the three SU defeats. Although Troy has dominated this series, winning five of six games, FIU is 5-1 ATS including a 52-35 win at Troy last year. The Panthers rushed for 448 yards, as the versatile T.Y. Hilton was one of three players with over 100 rushing yards. The Trojans subpar defense has nobody that can stop Hilton, and he will be the difference on Tuesday night. Play on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL to win and cover at home.

This two-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Golden Panthers:

Play Against - Road underdogs (TROY) - excellent passing team (>=275 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-275 PY/game). (51-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (68%, +24.6 units. Rating = 2*).

Troy’s offensive troubles started this summer when WRs Chip Reeves (515 rec. yds, 5 TD in 2010) and Jamel Johnson (258 rec. yds) were declared academically ineligible. QB Corey Robinson, who had 28 TD passes last year, has struggled this season with just 9 TD and 7 INT in six games. Robinson has found his go-to receiver though, as sophomore Eric Thomas is third in the Sun Belt in receiving yards (73 YPG). The Trojans running game ground to a complete halt their last time out against Louisiana-Monroe, as they rushed for minus-14 yards on 21 carries. Nobody on this team is averaging 40 rushing YPG this season. The defense continues to be torched by everybody, as Troy ranks 113th in total defense (461 YPG) and 110th in scoring (34.7 PPG).

FIU’s Hilton is having another superb season with a Sun Belt-leading 105 receiving YPG and 154 all-purpose YPG, which ranks second in the conference. In last year’s win over Troy, Hilton averaged 26.3 yards per carry, rushing for touchdowns of 80 and 61 yards. He also caught two passes for another 75 yards. Sophomore RB Kedrick Rhodes has been piling up the yards lately with 514 total yards (129 YPG) and 4 TD over the past four weeks. Senior RB Darriet Perry (330 rush yds, 5 TD) also had a huge game against Troy with 186 rushing yards (6.9 YPC) and a touchdown. But after racking up 187 yards and two scores in a two-game stretch, Perry carried the ball just five times for 12 yards in last week’s loss at Arkansas State. Senior QB Wesley Carroll, who tossed three touchdowns against the Trojans last year, has 7 TD and 2 INT this season.

FIU’s defense had done a nice job limiting the run (107 YPG, 25th in nation), before allowing Arkansas State to gallop for 238 yards in last week’s loss. The passing defense has been inconsistent, but has allowed only 304 yards (6.5 YPA) in the past two weeks.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 04:36 PM

Tuesday, October 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Troy - 8:00 PM ET Florida International -6 500

Florida International - Under 55 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:19 PM

Luck, Stanford Travel To Meet Barkley, USC

The Stanford Cardinal take their undefeated record and BCS National Championship hopes on the road this Saturday for their biggest test of the season away from home when they take on the USC Trojans at the Coliseum.

Stanford is currently a 7 ½ point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. The game starts at 8:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on ABC.

Saturday’s game will feature two of college football’s brightest stars at the quarterback position in Stanford’s Andrew Luck and USC’s Matt Barkley. Stanford is currently ranked No. 3 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll (they are No. 4 in the AP Poll) and USC is ranked No. 20 on both the Don Best Linemakers Poll and the AP Poll this week.

Stanford (7-0) is perfect both straight up and against the spread as Washington provided no contest whatsoever last week in a 65-21 blowout. Stanford has won every game this season by at least 26 points, averaging 48.6 points per game and allowing only 12.6 points per game.

Last Saturday’s win over Washington illustrated Stanford’s depth. While the Cardinal are best known for Luck at quarterback, they also have an excellent running game (which rushed for 446 yards against Washington and is ranked 17th in the country with 219.4 yards per game) and defense (Washington was averaging 37 points per game).

But Wisconsin looked just as good on both sides of the ball before their big road test against Michigan State; can Stanford pass its big test against USC?

USC (6-1) answered a lot of doubters’ questions with a huge win as a 10-point underdog at Notre Dame last Saturday. Not only did USC do an excellent job rushing the ball (racking up 219 yards), but for the second straight game the defense played extremely well.

Defensively, USC has allowed just 13 points per game, 38 rushing yards per game and 298 total yards per game in their road wins over California and Notre Dame. Monte Kiffin’s unit is coming around at the right time. With an offense averaging 30.1 points per game, USC could have a fighting chance for an upset at home this week if the defense continues to play at a high level.

Last season marked the first time in over a decade that Stanford was a favorite over USC, failing to cover a 10-point spread in a thrilling 37-35 win in Palo Alto. Stanford is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four games against USC, but the perception and make-up of these two teams has changed quite a bit with Jim Harbaugh building Stanford’s program up and NCAA sanctions knocking USC’s program down.

Until last year, Stanford had been a double-digit underdog in every game against the Trojans since 2002, and now they are a favorite on the road.

Both teams are 4-3 on the ‘under’ in totals betting this season, but fireworks tend to fly when these two teams meet. Seven of the last nine meetings between Stanford and USC have seen the ‘over’ cash, and each of the last three games have had 68 or more total points.

Saturday's total opened at 58 but has since settled in on the 60 mark.

Current weather forecasts call for a partly cloudy evening, but very little chance of any precipitation with a kickoff temp in the upper-60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:23 PM

Refocused Wisconsin Badgers Visit Ohio State Buckeyes

The Wisconsin Badgers need to quickly refocus their goals as they play the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday in another tough Big Ten road game.

Don Best has Wisconsin down to 7-point favorites after opening at 8 ½. The college football betting total is 50 ½-points and ESPN will broadcast at 8:00 p.m. (ET) from Ohio Stadium in Columbus.

The Badgers (6-1 straight up, 5-1-1 against the spread) are coming off a heartbreaking 37-31 loss at Michigan State on a final-play, Hail Mary. They have themselves to blame after seeing a 14-0 lead turn into a 31-17 deficit thanks partly to a safety and blocked punt for a TD. Wisconsin did make a dramatic comeback in the fourth quarter to tie the game, but it was all for naught.

Wisconsin was a 7-point road favorite against MSU and a cover looked very unlikely by halftime. It was its first spread failure in 14 games, going 12-0-1 ATS in its prior 13.

The 68 combined points scored also went way ‘over’ the 50 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-2 for Wisconsin this year and 12-4-1 in its last 17 overall.

The loss plummeted the Badgers from No. 6 to No. 15 in the BCS, essentially ending their national title hopes. The Don Best Linemakers Poll was far more forgiving, dropping them from No. 5 to No. 8. They now need to refocus their goal on winning the Big Ten, a very achievable scenario.

The question for coach Bret Bielema is how did the nation’s previously top-ranked scoring offense (50.2 PPG) get held to three points for a 44 minute stretch of last game?

Quarterback Russell Wilson was part of the problem, throwing a pick while driving for a 21-0 lead and uncharacteristically missing open receivers, although he does get credit for leading the comeback. Losing top running back Montee Ball (head injury) for part of the game also hurt.

The biggest culprit could have been the easy, early season schedule that included five home games and a neutral site contest. It’s a daunting task playing a very tough opponent in an opening road game, and it took time to recover after getting punched in the mouth.

Wisconsin won’t try do anything special offensively Saturday, mostly running with Ball and James White and having Wilson throw 20-25 times. The team out-rushed Michigan State 220-109, helping to win the total yardage battle 443-399.

The Buckeyes (4-3 SU and ATS) are rested and ready having last played at then BCS No. 23 Illinois on October 15, a 17-7 win as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.

The 24 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 44-point total. The ‘under’ is 5-2 for Ohio State this year with the offense scoring 23.3 PPG (88th nationally) and the defense allowing 16.3 PPG (12th nationally).

Interim coach Luke Fickell went with the old ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’ game plan of Woody Hayes against Illinois. The Buckeyes were boosted by the first outing this season for suspended back Dan Herron (114 yards), running the ball 51 times and throwing it four.

True freshman quarterback Braxton Miller had just 17 passing yards and it’s going to be very hard to beat Wisconsin without more balance. The Badgers did have a lot of trouble against quarterback Kirk Cousins last week (290 passing yards), but have had success against running quarterbacks like Miller.

OSU has a talented defense that will try to get physical with the Badgers like MSU did. However, it’s almost impossible to keep Wisconsin down for all four quarters and Wilson should be extra motivated after his Heisman hopes likely ended last week. Stanford’s Andrew Luck is the current heavy favorite.

The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) at home this year. All were easy opponents except the most recent one against Michigan State (10-7 loss). Senior Joe Bauserman and Miller both played last game and it wouldn’t be shocking if Miller didn’t last this whole game. Sophomore Kenny Guiton is another possibility for playing time.

Ohio State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games overall. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in its last six at home (3-1 this year).

The Buckeyes would like some revenge as Wisconsin beat them 31-18 in Madison last year, knocking them from the No. 1 spot in the nation. The Badgers lost the last two in Columbus in 2009 (31-13) and 2007 (38-17), most recently winning there in 2004.

Weather in Columbus should be cool and could even fall into the 30s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:25 PM

Don Best Linemakers Poll Vs BCS Standings

Entering the ninth week of the college football season, the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll is out and there are key differences as always when compared to the BCS Standings.

First off, what exactly is the poll and how is it put together by Kenny White?

It is a power poll based on the actual strength of teams rather than popularity and does not easily waver with a single loss or win. In a hypothetical situation where every school in the nation played each other, home and away, the rankings are where the team’s records would stack up.

Also, the ratings assigned to teams can be used to create a line for any matchup.

Right now in the BCS Standings, the LSU Tigers are ranked No. 1 with the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 2. However, the DB Poll has backed ‘Bama all year by placing them in the first spot with LSU currently No. 2.

The matchup between these heavyweights has been brewing all season long and on November 5, the Tigers will be in Tuscaloosa to battle the Tide in a critical game for the SEC, the BCS and the Linemakers Poll.

As for the Oregon Ducks, they do have one loss this season but it was opening week on a neutral field against LSU. With that loss they are still a top-5 ranked team according to White, and the Ducks are No. 7 in the BCS and on the AP. The two rankings almost agree with each other here, but there is some disagreement with a couple of undefeated squads.

Quarterback Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal are No. 3 on the Don Best Poll while they are No. 6 in the BCS behind Oklahoma State, Boise State and Clemson. Stanford has won and covered every single week in 2011 sitting at 7-0 straight up and against the spread.

For a shot at a national title, the Cardinal will have to beat both Oregon and USC. Kenny sees this program as being worthy of the top-5 as illustrated in the rankings.

Then there is Kansas State, whose place on the polls is one of the most significant differences between the two. Sitting undefeated at 7-0, the Wildcats are No. 8 in the BCS. On the Linemakers Poll, however, the Wildcats are not even top-20, sitting just outside at No. 21.

K-State has even moved up to earn that spot with a schedule that has worked out favorably for the 'Cats. This week they will host an Oklahoma squad coming off of its first loss of the season.

The weekly swings in the BCS are easily explained due to 'human polls' – the USA Today coaches poll and Harris Poll – accounting for two-thirds of the process. The Don Best Linemakers Poll removes the subjectivity and emotions following a big loss or big win, focusing instead on objective team and player performances.

DON BEST LINEMAKERS POLL - NCAA College Football Rankings
1 Alabama 123.5 2
2 LSU 121.9 1
3 Stanford 120.6 6
4 Oklahoma State 119.0 3
5 Oregon 118.2 7
6 Boise State 118.0 4
7 Oklahoma 117.8 9
8 Wisconsin 117.1 15
9 Clemson 114.5 5
10 Arkansas 113.6 10
11 Michigan State 112.4 11
12 Florida State 112.0 NR
13 Georgia 111.7 22
T-14 Michigan 111.5 18
T-14 Texas A&M 111.5 16
16 Virginia Tech 111.4 12
T-17 Nebraska 110.5 14
T-17 Arizona State 110.5 21
19 Notre Dame 110.4 NR
20 Southern California 109.6 NR
21 Kansas State 109.0 8
22 Miami 108.8 NR
23 Florida 108.7 NR
T-24 Houston 108.6 17
T-24 Cincinnati 108.6 NR
26 Penn State 108.5 19
T-27 Texas 108.1 24
T-27 West Virginia 108.1 25
29 South Carolina 108.0 13
30 Ohio State 107.9 NR
Don Best Linemakers Poll - Updated October 24, 2011

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:28 PM

Pac 12 Notebook

October 25, 2011

Week Eight Rewind

Blowout City!

Every game that featured Pac 12 teams ended up being horribly non-competitive. The smallest margin of victory was USC's 14-point non-conference win at Notre Dame.

Even worse, the five conference games were decided by 36, 43, 24, 44 and 23 points. Good times.

Action got underway Thursday with Arizona blowing away UCLA 48-12. After the Bruins closed the gap to 14-7 in the first quarter, Arizona ran off 34 unanswered points to run away with the game. The Wildcats outgained UCLA 573-323 and they had their best rushing performance of the season with 254 yards, easily eclipsing their previous best of 129 yards.

Oregon scored touchdowns on its first four possessions, all in the first quarter as it dominated the Buffaloes 45-2. The Ducks racked up 527 total yards including 371 yards rushing on 48 carries (7.7 ypc). They have rushed for at least 327 yards in each of their last five games. Colorado avoided its first home shutout since 1986 with a third quarter safety.

The first quarter featured two punts by each team but then California erupted for 20 second quarter points and eventually built a 34-0 lead before the Utes scored their 10 points in garbage time. The Golden Bears held Utah to just 178 total yards including 13 yards rushing. The Utes had only 58 total yards through three quarters.

USC outgained Notre Dame 443-267 and the Irish hurt themselves with three turnovers. Notre Dame was trailing 17-10 and was driving for the game-tying touchdown but fumbled and the Trojans returned it 80 yards for a touchdown. The Irish again fought back and down a touchdown, fumbled at their own 18 and USC punched it in.

Stanford rolled again to improve to a perfect 7-0 ATS as it rushed for a school record 446 yards on 44 carries (10.1 ypc). After Washington cut the lead to 17-14 in the second quarter, the Cardinal scored on a 70-yard run on the very next play to start of a run of 31 unanswered points. Stanford has won 15 straight games and has not trailed this season.

Last and certainly least, the Beavers went into Seattle and destroyed the Cougars by 23 points. Oregon State won the yardage battle 551-315 and scored on eight of its first nine possessions. Washington State tied the game at 14 apiece early in the second quarter but the Beavers ran off 20 unanswered points to pull away.


Not only was the Thursday game between UCLA and Arizona an ugly matchup, it got uglier right before halftime.

A streaker came onto the field with four seconds remaining in the first half which caused a delay in the game and that gave enough time for Bruins wide receiver Taylor Embree and Arizona cornerback Shaquille Richardson to start fighting. The benches cleared and a melee ensued.

Order was eventually restored but both teams will suffer the consequences.

Along with Embree, UCLA has lost receivers Randall Carroll, Ricky Marvay and Shaqelle Evans for this week's game against California. The good news is that the two top receivers were not lost but depth will be an issue.

Defensive tackle Cassius Marsh was suspended two games.

For Arizona, Richardson and fellow cornerback Jourdon Grandon were suspended for this week's game at Washington while cornerbacks Mark Watley and Lyle Brown will have to sit out the first half.

The Seat is Getting Hotter

Speaking of UCLA, guess who is back on the hot seat?

Not only did Rick Neuheisel lose badly against Arizona, he lost his team during the fight that took place against the Wildcats.

"It's definitely a step in the wrong direction," Neuheisel said. "I still hold out my feeling we can and will turn the corner."

Good luck Rick.

The ugly loss to Oregon St. did not help matters for Washington St. head coach Paul Wulff. He posted a 5-32 record in his first three years but the season started well this year as the Cougars opened 3-1 but they have dropped three straight, the last two by a combined 53 points.

You can make it four straight losses after this weekend as they head to Eugene as five-touchdown underdogs to the Ducks.

Game of the Week

Stanford passed a small test at home against Washington and now it gets tougher with a trip to USC this weekend. The Cardinal have won 15 straight games since losing at Oregon last year and with the way the Trojans looked at Notre Dame last week, this is certainly no gimmie.

Stanford moved from No. 8 to No. 6 in the BCS Standings and this would be its first real signature win of the season which would help improve that ranking even more. The Cardinal have won the last two meetings against USC including a 34-point drubbing the last time they played in Southern California two years ago.

Stanford is a 7.5-point favorite at most sports books.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:36 PM

Tech Trends - Week 9

October 25, 2011

Thursday, Oct. 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

VIRGINIA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Cavs just 1-5 vs. line last six on road, although they did score upset over Canes at Charlottesville LY. Slight to Miami, based on team trends.

RICE at HOUSTON...Rice 1-4 SU but 4-1 vs. line last five vs. cross-town rival Cougars. UH 4-0 vs. points at Robertson Stadium TY, and if throwing out injury-plagued 2010 when 1-4-1 vs. line at home, Cougs 8-0 last 8 and 11-1 vs. spread last 12 as host. Rice only 2-7 vs. points last nine as visitor but 7-1 last 8 as dog within Houston city limits. Slight to UH, based on home trend.

Friday, Oct. 28
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BYU at TCU (Cowboys Stadium, Arlington)...TCU has won last 3 SU vs. BYU and not allowed more than 7 points in any of the games (101-17 total score). Frogs 3-1 vs. line last four meetings. Cougs 6-1 vs. line, however, last seven away from Provo , and covered last five as dog. Slight to BYU, based on current trends.

Saturday, Oct. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...Cats 4-9 vs. spread last 13 on board since mid 2010. UK just 4-12 against line last 16 as SEC host. MSU has won and covered last two visits to Lexington. MSU, based on recent UK woes.

UAB at MARSHALL...UAB on surprising five-game cover streak. Blazers 6-3 against number last nine on road. Herd just 2-4 vs. spread as chalk since LY, but has won and covered last two years vs. UAB. UAB, based on recent trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at AKRON...CMU 1-7 vs. line TY, now 3-13 vs. spread last 15 for Dan Enos. Chips also 1-5 last 6 as chalk. Slight to Akron, based on recent CMU woes.

BALL STATE at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Ball State 24-8 vs. line last 32 reg. season away from home, but 2-2 in role TY. Cards 9-1 vs. spread last 10 as MAC road dog. Ball had covered 5 of 6 in series prior to LY's 45-16 loss. Broncos have won and covered last five at Waldo Stadium, however. Slight to Ball State, based on extended road mark.

WAKE FOREST at NORTH CAROLINA...Wake 2-7 vs. spread last 9 away, but Heels only 2-5 against number last 7 at Chapel Hill. Slight to Wake, based on team trends.

NC STATE at FLORIDA STATE...Wolfpack has covered last six in series and is unbelievable 9-0-1 vs. spread last 10 in series! Tom O'Brien 1-1 as dog TY and 23-12-1 in role since arriving at NCS in 2007. NCS, based on team trends.

CLEMSON at GEORGIA TECH...Ugh! Dabo has covered last six TY and is 7-1 vs. line in 2011. Dabo has also covered last four as visitor. Jackets have dropped last three vs. spread after covering first five TY. Slight to Clemson, based on recent trends.

IOWA at MINNESOTA...Floyd of Rosedale! Gophers have covered 4 of last 5 Floyd battles, but they've dropped last 4 vs. line TY. Iowa no covers last five as reg.-season visitor. Slight to Iowa, based on current trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NEBRASKA...Huskers no covers first four at home TY and now 2-8 vs. line last 10 at Lincoln. Dantonio just 3-10 his last 13 as dog (1-1 TY). Dantonio 15-10 vs. spread away from East Lansing since 2007. Slight to MSU, based team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at INDIANA...Hoosiers have covered last three in series. Fitzgerald 2-7 as road chalk since 2007, Cats 5-19 last 24 as chalk overall. IU on 6-1 spread uptick at Bloomington. Indiana, based on series and team trends.

PURDUE at MICHIGAN...Purdue has covered last three in series, and Boilermakers slightly rallying vs. number with 4-1 mark last 5 TY. Wolverines were 2-9 vs. spread last 11 as host vs. FBS foes prior to TY. Slight to Purdue, based on series trends.

ILLINOIS at PENN STATE...Zook 4-1 vs. line against Shades since 2006. Zook 11-5 last 16 as dog. Shades 2-6 vs. spread TY and 2-8 last 10 vs. line since late 2010. Illinois, based on team and series trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at DUKE...Beamer has had at least one three-game or more cover streak in eight of the past ten seasons. Beamer 32-14 vs. line away from home since 2004, 23-10 last 33 as road chalk. VT, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at RUTGERS...Road team 5-0-1 vs. line last six meetings. Mountaineers just 4-3 vs. line after SU loss since 2009 and have won five straight at East Brunswick. Slight to WVU, based on series road trends.

SYRACUSE at LOUISVILLE...Syracuse had covered five straight in series prior to LY's 28-20 loss. Cuse was 6-1 vs. line away from home LY but is 0-2 in role to date TY. Cards 8-19 vs. points at home post-Bobby Petrino (since 2007) and have failed to cover last three hosting Orange. Syracuse, based on team and series trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at MARYLAND...Spaziani has lost and failed to cover 3 of last 4 vs. Maryland. Edsall only 2-5 vs. line TY and has dropped last four spread decisions at College Park, but he was 19-6 his last 25 vs. line as host at UConn. Slight to Maryland, based on series trends.

OLE MISS at AUBURN...Houston Nutt 8-2 as road dog since arriving at Oxford in 2008. Tigers 0-2 laying DDs this season for Chizik. Ole Miss, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at VANDERBILT...Commodores have covered first two SEC home games TY after dropping previous 10 vs. number. Petrino 25-11 vs. line last 36 spread decisions. Slight to Arkansas, based on extended trends.

KANSAS at TEXAS...Jayhawks 2-8 vs. line the last ten years in game following Kansas State. KU 3-9 vs. number last 12 away from home, and no covers last three in series vs. Longhorns. Mack only 2-8 vs. line at Austin since beating KU by 51-20 count in 2009. Texas, based on KU negatives.

BOWLING GREEN at KENT STATE...BG 22-11 vs. spread away since 2007. Hazell only 1-6 vs. line in 2011, and Flashes 2-9 last 11, 4-13 last 17 vs. number since early 2010. Revenge for BG after 30-6 loss LY. BG, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at NEW MEXICO...Lobos 11-20 vs. line since 2009, 5-10 at home vs. line against FBS foes since 2009. Falcs had covered six straight vs. UNM prior to LY's 48-23 win but no cover. Air Force, based on team and series trends.

SMU at TULSA...SMU had covered six straight in series prior to LY's 21-18 win and non-cover in Dallas. SMU, based on extended series trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA STATE...CU no covers last 5 TY. ASU 12-4 vs. line last 16 vs. FBS foes. ASU, based on team trends.

TULANE at EAST CAROLINA...Wave on 9-25-1 spread slide since late 2008, but now moving on post-Bob Toledo. Slight to ECU, based on Tulane negatives.

MISSOURI at TEXAS A&M...Pinkel 4-1 as dog the past two years after 3-6 mark as "short" the previous three years. Mizzou 12-6 vs. spread as true visitor since 2007. Aggies 15-6 vs. line last 21 at home and in revenge mode after 30-9 loss to Tigers LY. Slight to A&M, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Revenge for TT after 52-38 loss at Ames LY, and Tuberville 5-2 vs. line last seven at Lubbock. Slight to TT, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at MIAMI-OHIO...Buffalo had covered four straight in series until Miami's 21-9 win LY. Red Hawks 4-12 last 16 as chalk (though 4-2 last 6). Slight to UB, based on extended trends.

NAVY at NOTRE DAME...Midshipmen have won 3 of last 4 SU vs. Irish after record 43-game series losing streak between 1964-2006. Mids, however, have made a habit out of covering at South Bend, covering 10 straight visits since 1991. Mids 2-0 as dog TY, 11-2 in role since '09. Irish 11-26-3 vs. line at home since late '05. Navy, based on team and series trends.

GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA (at Jacksonville)...Gators are 17-3 SU and 13-6-1 vs. line in what used to be the World's Biggest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Florida no wins or covers last three TY. Slight to Florida, based on extended series trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at LOUISIANA TECH...SJS covers in last three and five of last six TY. But LT is 9-4 vs. line last 13 at Ruston vs. FBS foes, and 31-17 vs. spread at Joe Aillet Stadium since 2000. LT, based on extended trends.

MEMPHIS at UCF...UCF fading with no covers last 5 TY after O'Leary's 22-6 spread mark in previous 28 on board. Hard to like Memphis, however, and its 10-22 spread mark last 31 on board. UCF, based on extended trends.

HAWAII at IDAHO...Idaho 1-6 vs. line last 7 vs. Hawaii since 2004. Vandals have now dropped last nine vs. line against WAC foes at Kibbie Dome. Hawaii, based on Idaho home WAC woes.

COLORADO STATE at UNLV...Rebs are 6-1 vs. spread at Sam Boyd Stadium vs. FBS foes since Bobby Hauck took over LY. Home teams are 16-2 vs. spread in UNLV games vs. FBS foes since LY. CSU 1-8 vs. line last 9 on board, 7-18 last 25 overall, and 3-12 last 15 away. UNLV, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at UTAH...Utes now no covers last five at Salt Lake City since late LY. Mike Riley 21-7 last 28 as dog. OSU, based on team trends.

CAL at UCLA...Neuheisel 0-3 SU and vs. line against Tedford, no result closer than 19 points. Neuheisel 5-14 vs. line since 2010, and 1-9 last 10 on board. Cal 0-3 vs. line away TY and 10-21 last 31 in role. Cal, based on series trends and UCLA woes.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON...Huskies 9-2 SU and vs. spread last 11 since late 2010. Cats only 2-5 vs. line last 7 away. UW, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON...Ducks have won last four in series by wide margins but didn't cover LY at Pullman. Ducks 9-3 vs line last 12 vs. Pac-12 foes at Eugene. Slight to UO, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at TENNESSEE...UT has covered 4 of last 5 in series, although Vols just 2-6 vs. spread since late 2010. Gamecocks just 4-9 vs. line last 13 away from Columbia. Slight to UT, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA at KANSAS STATE...Note that Bill Snyder is 4-1 vs. line his last five against Bob Stoops. KSU on 6-game cover streak TY and Snyder now 12-5 as dog since returning to Wildcat sidelines in 2009. KSU, based on Bill Snyder trends

BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE...OSU has annihilated Baylor each of the past five seasons. Gundy 16-4 vs. line since 2010, although surprisingly 6-4 at home compared to 10-0 away! Bears 0-2 SU and vs. line away TY and 3-7 against number last 10 away from home. OSU, based on team and series trends.

WISCONSIN at OHIO STATE...Even with MSU loss, Bielema 12-2 vs. line since mid 2010. Wisconsin, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP...Miners on surprising 6-game cover streak at moment, and UTEP 9-4 vs. spread as Sun Bowl dog since Mike Price arrived in 2004. USM has covered last 5 TY and 8-3 last 11 on board since late 2010. UTEP, based on team trends.

STANFORD at SOUTHERN CAL...Stanford actually 4-3 SU and 5-1 vs. line last 6 at Coliseum since 2009. Tree was 3-2 SU and 4-1 vs. line at Coliseum against Pete Carroll. Tree on 10-game cover streak and 12-1 last 13 vs. spread. Kiffin just 2-7-1 vs. spread as host since LY. Stanford, based on team trends.

NEVADA at NEW MEXICO STATE...DeWayne Walker 3-12 vs. line at Las Cruces since 2009, though Aggies on 4-game cover streak at moment. Nevada, based on team trends.

WYOMING at SAN DIEGO STATE...Aztecs 6-3 against points at home since LY (2-1 TY). Wyoming 10-5 vs. line away since Dave Christensen arrived in 2009. Slight to Wyo, based on team trends.

Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WESTERN KENTUCKY at UL-MONROE...WKU has covered four in a row TY and has also covered all three away from home, now 6-1 vs. line last 7 on road. WKU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU now 6-1 vs. line TY including 3-0 at Jonesboro, Red Wolves also 7-2 last 9 as chalk since LY. Surprising UNT has covered 5 of last 6 TY. Slight to ASU, based on team trends.

UK-LAFAYETTE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...ULL 9-1 vs. line last 10 away from Cajun Field. MTSU 2-7 vs. line at Jonesboro since LY. ULL, based on team trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:38 PM

College Notebook

October 25, 2011

Arizona State...Check status of leading rusher Cameron Marshall (491 YR; ankle) and key OL anchor, C Garth Gerhart (ankle), for Saturday's game vs. Colorado.

Arizona...Wildcats broke a 10-game SU losing streak vs. FBS foes with last Thursday's 48-12 romp past UCLA in Tucson in first game for interim HC Tim Kish. A melee at the end of the first half has resulted in numerous suspensions for the Cats, including CB Shaquille Richardson & Jourdon Graham, both expected to miss this week's game at Washington, and DB Mark Watley, expected to be suspended for the first half vs. the Huskies. Cats are already thin in 2ndary with CB Trevon Wade nursing a shoulder injury.

Army...QB Trent Steelman left in the first half of last week's 44-21 loss at Vanderbilt with a leg injury. West Point option did not move as efficiently thereafter with backups Max Jenkins and Angel Santiago taking snaps vs. Commodores, who outrushed the Black Knights.

Auburn...Tigers are still minus leading pass catcher, WR Emory Blake (knee). Auburn switched QBs last week at LSU, giving RS soph Clint Moseley his first start of the season, with true frosh Kiehl Frazier also taking some snaps in 45-10 loss at Baton Rouge.

Boston College...Already without top RB Montel Harris (out for the season with a knee injury) and caddy Andre Williams limited to only 5 carries with his own sore ankle, backup Rolandan Finch assumed the bulk of the ball-carrying chores last week at Virginia Tech and responded with 91 physical yards, although BC fell to 1-6 in 30-14 loss.

Ball State...Leading rusher Paris Cotton returned to action last Saturday vs. CMU, although it was Zurlon Tipton, back in lineup for first time since mid-September, whose 110 YR most helped Cards to 31-27 win.

Colorado...Buffaloes resemble a M*A*S*H unit with no fewer than a dozen injuries on roster. RB Rodney Stewart and WR Paul Richardson are both temporarily sidelined with knee injuries, taking 60% of the CU offense with them to the infirmary, and now QB Tyler Hansen has joined them after being KO'd by a concussion last Saturday in 45-2 loss to Oregon. RS frosh Nick Hirschman went the rest of the way after Hansen was hurt and completed 8 of 18 passes in relief, and will get the call on Saturday at Arizona State if Hansen is ruled out. Stewart and Richardson are also questionable for the Sun Devils clash in Tempe.

Florida...Gators hope to get QB John Brantley and RB Jeff Demps back from ankle injuries in time for Saturday's game vs. Georgia at Jacksonville.

Florida State...Keep an eye on true frosh RB Devonta Freeman, with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games as Noles have scored consecutive 41-16 wins over Duke and Maryland. Leading WR Rashad Greene (26 catches) missed his second straight game with an ankle injury vs. Terps.

Georgia...Dawg defenders DT Kwame Geathers & DB Shawn Williams will be suspended for first half of this week's Florida game due to incidents during Oct. 15 game at Vandy.

Indiana...Tre Roberson became the first true frosh to start at QB for IU last week at Iowa. He fared decently, completing 16 of 24 passes for 196 yards and 1 TD (no picks) while rushing for 84 yards, but Hoosiers still lost 45-24. One of the other IU QBS, Dusty Kiel, is out 2-3 more weeks with an ankle injury.

Iowa State...Ineffective QB Steele Jantz was pulled in the first half last week vs. Texas A&M, replaced by frosh Jared Barnett, who completed 16 of 36 passes for 180 YP the rest of the way vs. Aggies.

La Tech...Bulldogs pulled ineffective frosh QB Nick Isham in 3rd Q at Utah State, with former starter Colby Cameron rallying LT in 4th Q to a 24-17 win at Logan.

LSU...Key DBs Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon, plus RB Spencer Ware, were all suspended for last week's game vs. Auburn, but figure to be reinstated for Nov. 5 showdown at Alabama.

Memphis...Tigers were back to true frosh Taylor Reed for the starting QB assignment last week vs. Tulane, and Reed responded with a 2134-yard, 2-TDP effort in 33-17 win over Green Wave, Tigers' first C-USA win for HC Larry Porter since he took over in 2010.

Michigan...QB Denard Robinson has been nursing a back injury but is likely to be ready for this week's game vs. Purdue.

Michigan State...Star DE William Gholston was suspended by the Big Ten for last Saturday's game vs. Wisconsin for a punching incident the week before vs. Michigan. Gholston is expected to be available for Saturday's game at Nebraska.

Middle Tennessee...O.C. Willie Simmons resigned on October 14, related to aggravated assault charges filed against him for a domestic incident. Simmons' departure means that the Blue Raiders will have had five different offensive play-callers since 2008, with HC Rick Stockstill helping to fill in last week at FAU. Leading rusher Benjie Cunningham (foot) and second-leading rusher D.D. Kyles (leg) are both out for another week or two, though William Pratcher responded with his second straight 100+ -yard effort in last week's 38-14 win over Owls.

Navy...QB Kriss Proctor left last week's game vs. East Carolina with an elbow injury. Backup Trey Miller went the rest of the way in Mids' bitter 38-35 loss, their fifth in a row.

Northwestern...Maligned QB Dan Persa hobbled off the field with an apparent ankle injury in second half of last week's 34-24 loss to Penn State.

NC State...Watch CB David Amerson, now with a nation's-best 8 picks after two more (one returned for a TD) last week in 28-14 NCS win at Virginia.

Oklahoma State...Star WR Justin Blackmon sat out the 2nd half of last Saturday's 45-24 win at Missouri with a concussion. Third-leading Cowboy receiver Hubert Anyiam is out for several weeks with a broken foot, but OSU didn't skip a beat vs. Tigers.

Oregon...RB LaMichael James (elbow) and QB Darron Thomas (knee) missed last Saturday's 45-2 win at Colorado. Ducks didn't miss them, however, as a stable of RBs led by Kenjon Barner torched the Buffs, and electric RS frosh Bryan Bennett helped lead the easy win at Boulder.

Rice...QB Taylor McHargue, who was questionable last week vs. Tulsa with a concussion, started nonetheless vs. the Golden Hurricane but was pulled after a disastrous opening that featured two picks and an Owl fumble in the first three possessions for Rice. Backup Nick Fanuzzi, who has starting experience in the past, went the rest of the way in 38-20 loss to Tulsa.

South Carolina...Star RB Marcus Lattimore is done for the season with a knee injury suffered Oct. 14 at Mississippi State.

Tulane...Wave HC Bob Toledo resigned under fire Oct. 17, replaced on an interim basis by OL coach Mark Hutson, who did his candidacy for the permanent job no good in subsequent 33-17 home loss to Memphis. Early possible candidates for the job include LSU assistant Frank Wilson, Alabama assistant Burton Burns, UL-Lafayette HC Mark Hudspeth, former Tulane HC Tommy Bowden, former Tulane o.c. and West Virginia and Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez, and former Texas Tech coach Mike Leach. QB Ryan Griffin, bothered by a hip injury, was in the lineup and started vs. the Tigers.

UAB...Blazers were minus QB Bryan Ellis with a hand injury and RB Pat Shed with a knee injury past Thursday vs. UCF but still upset Golden Knights 26-24. Backup QB Jonathan Perry completed 31 of 42 passes for 327 yards and two TDs in the win.

UCF...Fading Golden Knights pulled ineffective soph QB Jeff Godfrey in 3rd Q last week at UAB, replaced by RS frosh Blake Bortles, who completed 6 of 10 passes and rallied UCF in the late going before Blazers pulled out 2-point win.

UCLA...Several suspensions have been handed down by Pac-12 form the brawl at the end of the first half last week at Arizona. WR Taylor Embree and DB Cassius Marsh will be suspended this week vs. Cal (Marsh perhaps for another game thereafter) and WR Randall Carroll will be forced to sit out the first half vs. Golden bears. Bruins also getting thinned on "D" with starters LB Glenn Love (leg) and DT Justin Edison (concussion) ? for Cal.

Virginia...Cavs' QB rotation imploded last week vs. NC State, with Michael Rocco and David Watford combining to complete only 11 of m35 passes with 3 picks in 28-14 loss to Wolfpack.

Wake Forest...Leading rusher RB Josh Harris missed a second straight game for the Deacs last week at Duke with a hamstring injury.

Washington State...QB Jeff Tuel, who earlier missed a month of action with a broken collarbone, left Saturday's night's game in Seattle vs. Oregon State with a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury. Backup Marshall Lobbestael, who had started effectively in Tuel's place earlier in the season, went the rest of the way in Cougars' depressing 44-21 loss to Beavers.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:40 PM

Pittsburgh hosts UConn on Wednesday night


Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -10

A pair of sub-.500 teams meet in a rare Wednesday night tilt, when Pittsburgh hosts Connecticut in what will be the last Big East meeting between the teams before the Panthers leave for the ACC.

After giving up 81 points in losses to Western Michigan and West Virginia, UConn posted a 16-10 win over USF before last week’s bye. Pittsburgh has lost four of five, scoring 12, 10 and 14 points in its past three defeats. UConn is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with Pitt, including three SU wins as the underdog. The Panthers have allowed the most sacks in the nation (34) and have a minus-6 TO margin in the past two games. Since 2007, the Huskies are a stellar 20-10 ATS in Big East play. They also love being the underdogs, posting a 12-5 ATS mark (71%) over the past three seasons when getting points. Pittsburgh will likely win, but not by double-digits. The pick here is CONNECTICUT to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Huskies:

Play Against - Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - in conference games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning. (93-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +41.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Although UConn has four losses already, three of those defeats have come by a touchdown or less. Junior QB Johnny McEntee isn’t going to remind people of Andrew Luck, but he is riding a string of four straight games without an interception in 120 pass attempts. Freshman RB Lyle McCombs has been the star of the Huskies, racking up his third 130-yard rushing game of his brief career in UConn’s 16-10 upset of South Florida in the last game. The Huskies defense has been pretty sound all year, holding five of seven opponents to less than 350 total yards. They rank ninth in the country in rushing defense (89 YPG), but 99th against the pass (262 YPG). However, Pittsburgh’s strength is rushing the football, so UConn should be able to keep the Panthers struggling offense at bay.

Pittsburgh ranks just 59th amongst FBS teams in rushing offense (158 YPG), but it has the nation’s No. 2 rusher in Ray Graham (134 rushing YPG). Graham has been effective in two career games against UConn, rushing for 128 yards on 24 carries (5.3 YPC), but he needs a lot more help from his teammates to get back in the win column. Pitt’s quarterbacks combined to complete 9-of-30 passes for 50 yards and 2 INT in the 26-14 to Utah in its last game. The Utes were ranked 100th in passing defense (268 YPG) entering that matchup. Panthers junior QB Tino Sunseri (5 TD, 7 INT) will likely remain the starter, but he has regressed in a big way after a solid 2010 campaign (16 TD, 9 INT). Sunseri is 18-of-39 for 165 yards, 0 TD and 3 INT in the past two games. On defense, the Panthers rank 95th against the pass (250 YPG), but have held their past four opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
10/25/2011 10:41 PM

Virginia visits Miami on Thursday night


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -14.5

It’s a short week for Virginia and Miami, both with 4-3 records, when the ACC rivals square off Thursday night in Florida.

Miami looks for its third straight SU win, and fourth cover in a row against a Virginia team whose three FBS wins are by three points or less. The Canes held Georgia Tech to 211 total yards in last week’s 24-7 victory, while the Cavs gained just 249 yards in a 28-14 home loss to NC State. UVa is 2-8 ATS against its past 10 FBS opponents since beating Miami 24-19 last year as a 14.5-point underdog. Canes QB Jacory Harris was knocked out of that loss, but threw for 232 yards and 2 TD in a 52-17 win the last time UVa visited. All signs point to MIAMI winning and covering the large spread.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Hurricanes:

VIRGINIA is 3-14 ATS (17.6%, -12.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992. The average score was VIRGINIA 21.1, OPPONENT 32.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Virginia’s two-QB rotation of sophomore Michael Rocco and freshman David Watford has not been working the past two weeks. The duo has combined to go 20-of-54 for 260 yards, 3 TD and 4 INT in this two-game span. But the ground game is the strength of this offense, posting six straight 150-yard rushing efforts until NC State held the Cavs to 124 last week. Perry Jones leads the team with 576 rushing yards (5.1 YPC), including 321 in the past three weeks. Freshman Kevin Parks (5.2 YPC) has seven of the team’s 13 TD on the ground. The Cavs have really hurt themselves with turnovers, giving away at least 3 TO in five of seven games this year. Virginia has been sound defensively though, ranking 19th in total defense (314 YPG) and 12th against the pass (176 YPG). The defense has also forced two turnovers in each of the past three games.

Miami has done an excellent job taking care of the football, with just four turnovers in its past five games. Harris has thrown for 10 TD and just 1 INT during this five-game stretch. Junior WR Tommy Streeter has five of these scores and 185 receiving yards in his past two games. RB Lamar Miller has provided 74% of the team’s rushing yards, ranking 2nd in the ACC with 114 rushing YPG. Miller is gaining 5.8 YPC and has scored seven total touchdowns in seven games. Miami’s run defense has improved tremendously in each of the past three games since allowing 219 rushing yards to Bethune-Cookman. The Canes held a strong Virginia Tech team to 172 yards on 4.5 YPC, then limited North Carolina to 141 yards on 3.4 YPC and then held Georgia Tech’s second-ranked rushing offense averaging 348 YPG, to a paltry 134 yards on 48 carries (2.8 YPC). Miami’s pass defense is solid, allowing less than 200 passing YPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: