cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
On 10/29/2013 01:05 AM in Other Sports

Cnotes 2013 Breeders’ Cup Breakdown at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. Plus my Picks !

BC - Facts and Figures

October 24, 2013

Historical Betting Notes

-- Favorites are 83 for 252 (32%) in the 29 year history of the event, while those that were odds on favorites (under even money) are 21 for 48 (43%). The 1990 Juvenile Fillies at Belmont produced the shortest price in Breeders’ Cup history when Meadow Star returned $2.40.

-- Only one of the 36 horses that have gone off at 100-1 or higher have won when Arcangues came from the other side of the pond to win the 1993 Classic as the biggest longshot in Breeders’ Cup history, returning $269.20.

-- Inside Information posted the largest margin of victory in Breeders’ Cup history when she walloped her competition by 13 ½ lengths in the 1995 Distaff at Belmont. Fifteen horses have won by the shortest margin of victory, a nose, including Hightail in the 2012 Juvenile Sprint.

-- Foreign based runners have had tremendous success in Breeders’ Cup events. They’ve won 49 races overall, including a remarkable 39 of the 88 (44%) run on the grass. They’ve won six dirt and four synthetic track races.

-- Zenyatta is the only horse to ever win two different events.

-- Goldikova is the only horse to ever win three Breeders’ Cup races.

Horses that have won multiple Breeders’ Cup races

Bayakoa - Distaff: 1989, 1990

Conduit - Turf: 2008, 2009

Da Hoss - Mile: 1996, 1998

Goldikova - Mile: 2008, 2009, 2010

High Chapparal - Turf: 2002, 2003 (dead heat w/Johar)

Lure - Mile: 1992, 1993

Midnight Lute - Sprint: 2007, 2008

Miesque - Mile: 1987, 1988

Ouija Board - F&M Turf: 2004, 2006

Royal Delta - Ladies’ Classic: 2011, 2012

Tiznow - Classic: 2000, 2001

Zenyatta - Ladies’ Classic, 2008/Classic, 2009

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:09 AM

BC - The Distaff

October 25, 2013

Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures

The Distaff

Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
Date: Friday, Nov. 1
Time: 7:35 p.m. EDT

The History

In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008.

Favorites: 13 for 29 (45%)
Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
The champ is here? Yes, the winner of the last TWO is here as Royal Delta will look to join Goldikova as the only three time winners in B.C. history.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Beholder, Royal Delta
Mid-pack: Authenticity, Close Hatches
Closers: Princess of Sylmar, Street Girl

The Best

How do you not start with the two time defending champ, ROYAL DELTA? After winning this last year, in surprising gate-to-wire fashion as a four-year-old, trainer Bill Mott decided on the same, exact, six-race campaign to get her back here this season. That would mean starting the season in the Sabin at Gulfstream where she rolled to a five length score and another disastrous trip to the Dubai desert as Royal Delta managed to beat just two in the Dubai World Cup while taking on colts over a synthetic course.

She ran into a buzz-saw over a speed biased Churchill strip in her return, the Fleur de Lis, when Funny Proposition shook loose and won easily by five. It made many wonder if the Dubai trip took more out of her this year than it did last year, with neighsayers pointing to the fact that last years’ Fleur de Lis actually signaled her return to top form. Royal Delta wasted little time in getting back to her winning ways, drowning the competition in a pair of G1s, the Delaware Handicap and Personal Ensign at Saratoga, by 10 ¾ lengths and 4 ½ lengths.

But last out in the Beldame, things did not go as expected. Royal Delta didn’t make the early lead and though she was in front approaching the far turn, she never appeared to be 100 percent, carrying her head a bit lower than usual and offered little to no resistance when PRINCESS OF SYLMAR sidled up and right on by her. Mott has been tightening the screw since the Beldame defeat and one would have to think the REAL Royal Delta will show up on Friday.

The word “doubt” and Princess of Sylmar went hand in hand for the better part of the past two months just after her 2 ½ length Alabama score, especially when you spoke to her connections about her participation in the Distaff. After all, she had done little wrong in her three-year-old season, as she was already a three time G1 winner with the Kentucky and CCA Oaks both under her belt as well, and the Eclipse for her division all but locked up.

Then rumors surfaced that she’d take on her elders in the Beldame, and after a couple of works that were more than satisfactory to her trainer Todd Pletcher, she was in the Beldame. She rewarded his decision with her aforementioned victory and it was widely assumed, with seemingly nothing left to accomplish, she’d be put away for the year.

But her connections apparently couldn’t satisfy that Distaff itch and have decided to forge ahead and supplement her to the race. Could it be the fact that she’s already defeated Royal Delta and they figure they might as well do it again? Depending on how the rest of the weekend unfolds, could this fifth G1 win help them make a strong case for Horse of the Year? Or, are they worried another filly, say BEHOLDER, could snatch the divisional Eclipse out of their hands with a Distaff score while they sat idly with their filly? I don’t have the answer, and frankly it doesn’t concern me too much because we get what we want: a rematch of the best in each female division.

Speaking of Beholder, do you think she likes this Santa Anita surface? We, of course, know the answer is a resounding “YES” as she has won five of six starts over the course for Dick Mandella including four G1s in races like the Santa Anita Oaks, last years’ B.C. Juvenile Fillies and the Zenyatta last out in her first try against her elders.

Beholder gets another crack at Princess of Sylmar as well as she Beholder was second in the Kentucky Oaks this season, duking it out early with Midnight Lucky on the front end where she was softened up just enough for Princess of Sylmar to run her down by just a ½ length. She returned from a four month layoff to win a minor stakes at Del Mar two back before her Zenyatta victory. While she figures to have some company on the front end in Royal Delta, I think the lead is hers if she really wants it.

The Rest

Should CLOSE HATCHES pull off a Distaff upset, she could possibly be named champion three-year-old filly as well. After winning the first three starts of her career, including a win over Princess of Sylmar at this distance in the Gazelle, the normally speedy Close Hatches was taken well off the pace in the Kentucky Oaks and never seemed comfortable, trudging home a well beaten seventh before finishing a distant second to Midnight Lucky in the Acorn.

Close Hatches returned to her winning ways in emphatic fashion, galloping home over seven lengths ahead of Dreaming of Julia in the Mother Goose before a myriad of minor ailments kept her from the races for most of the summer. Close Hatches returned from a three month layoff in the Cotillion at Parx last out and came from just off the pace to win by a workmanlike two lengths.

The only other mare in the field, AUTHENTICITY has put together one heck of a resume this year after missing close to eighteen months of action coming into 2013. She hasn’t missed the board in eight starts, won a pair of graded stakes and finished second in the Ogden Phipps, Personal Ensign and Zenyatta, all grade 1s, behind Tiz Miz Sue, Royal Delta and Beholder, respectively. In the Zenyatta last out, she trailed early before grinding her way patiently to that runner-up award while finishing up nicely.

STREET GIRL has just two wins from a baker’s dozen starts in her career, a $65K maiden claiming score and a win in the Calder Oaks back in July over a sloppy track. She was flying last out when third to Close Hatches but is seemingly up against it in this spot.

The Strategy

The betting figures to be two-tiered in this, with Royal Delta, Beholder and Princess of Sylmar getting the bulk of the money followed by the rest. I personally don’t think the race is just between those three so I’m looking for value. With all of that said, I think one would be remiss to leave out the two-time champion.

The Bomb

Close Hatches should work out a perfect trip right in behind the speed. She’s not going to be double digit odds but a juicy 7-1 isn’t out of the question.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:10 AM

BC - Marathon

October 24, 2013

Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures

The Marathon

Distance: 1 ¾ miles
Purse: $500,000
Age: 3-Year-Olds & Up
Date: Friday, Nov. 1
Post-time: 4:45 p.m. EDT

The History

Run at 1 ½ miles in its first year before stretching out to this distance. European shippers won the first two runnings over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. This event is best known altercation between jockeys Javier Castellano and Calvin Borel at the scales after the 2010 race.

Favorites: 0 for 5 (0%)
Shortest: $14.80 (Man of Iron, 2009)
Highest: $85.20 (Afleet Again, 2011)
The champ is here? No

The Scenario

Front Runners: Blueskiesandrainbows, Commander, Ever Rider
Mid-pack: Cease, London Bridge, Old Time Hockey, Suns Out Guns Out, Worldly
Closers: Indian Jones, Pool Play

The Best and the Rest

Normally, these two categories each have their own section but if I’m being honest there just isn’t enough information, or talent, frankly, to separate this bunch. So, everyone gets equal time, in alphabetical order.

The connections of BLUESKIESANDRAINBOWS are hoping his affinity for Santa Anita will make up for his possible distance limitations as he has hit the board in six of his seven starts over the course. To go along with his two wins here, Blueskiesandrainbows finished third in the Santa Anita Derby last year behind eventual Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another. Blueskiesandrainbows won a minor stakes two back and was third in the 1 ½ miles Cougar II at Delmar this past summer.

Two seasons ago, CEASE turned for home in this event two in front while making just the seventh start of his career. He finished off the board that day but is back for another crack this season while making his third start off of a recent claim. Cease in for a claiming tag was a bit surprising when you recall that just last year he was finishing third and second in races like the Woodward at Saratoga and Hawthorne Gold Cup. Cease won an allowance/optional claimer going seven furlongs at Belmont last out in his first start with blinkers.

Since finishing far, far back in last years’ Marathon, COMMANDER has had a pretty solid 2013 campaign, winning half of his eight starts since returning to the races at the end of April. In fact, Commander is four for five routing this year, with his biggest score coming in gate-to-wire fashion last out in the Premier at Hastings Park going 1 3/8 miles.

South American import EVER RIDER is hoping to follow in the footsteps of his Argentinean countryman Calidoscopio, last years’ upset winner, by annexing the event this season. Unlike Calidoscopio, who came from the clouds, Ever Rider does his best running on or close to the lead as the words “close up” and “led throughout” litter the comment lines on his PPs. Ever Rider will be making his first start in over four months.

INDIAN JONES has raced 34 times in his career. Just one of those starts has come at a distance farther than 1 1/8 miles and it was two races back when he came flying late in the 1 ½ mile Greenwood Cup, a race he eventually lost by a nose to former Marathon winner Eldaafer but one that stamped him a contender for this.

Euro import LONDON BRIDGE is actually a New York bred son of Arch who will be making his conventional dirt debut in here. London Bridge had little luck in the first two starts of his career over synthetic surfaces before winning three in a row on the grass, including a 1 ½ mile event. He’ll be making his first start since mid-August.

Winless in his last eight starts since taking the La Jolla at Del Mar in August 2012, OLD TIME HOCKEY has raced exclusively on grass since the third start of his career. He has shown some life in his last pair while gaining ground late against better going 1 3/8 miles and 1 ¼ miles, respectively, and is by all means bred to handle the dirt.

POOL PLAY is tried the Classic last season to no avail and will be looking for his first win since last season’s Hawthorne Gold Cup. Winless in seven tries this year, Pool Play finished second in the Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream to start the season then didn’t come close until he finished third in the Greenwood Cup two back.

SUNS OUT GUNS OUT arguably ran the best race of his life in start number 22 last out, his first with the addition of blinkers, in an optional claiming/allowance contest at Parx. Two starts back, Suns Out Guns Out was fourth in the Greenwood Cup over a muddy strip. The “P” word, pedigree, hasn’t come up yet in regards to going this crazy distance but I would say his is best to handle the trip.

WORLDLY will be looking for his first victory in over two years in the Marathon but has been rounding in his last three starts since a March layoff. He was second three back to Dirt Mile contender and 2012 Travers winner Golden Ticket before missing by just a neck to multiple graded stakes winner Prayer for Relief two back. Last out in the Homecoming Classic at Churchill, Worldly finished third, beaten just 3 ¾ lengths to defending Classic winner Fort Larned. Though he’s never raced past 1 ¼ miles, he has won at that distance and is by 1992 Belmont winner A.P. Indy.

The Strategy

Between the distance question marks and a lack of serious talent, this figures to be a wide open betting race. I doubt the favorite will be less than 7-2 or 4-1, so boxing a few horses and spreading a bit in multi-race exotics would be the smart move.

The Bomb

There is a chance the lone G1 winner in the field, Pool Play, will be the longest shot on the board. Give him a whirl at 12-1 or better.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:12 AM

BC - Juvenile

October 26, 2013

Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures

The Juvenile

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: 2-Year-Old colts and geldings
Date: Saturday, Nov. 2
Time: 5:45 p.m. EDT

The History

Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006. Uncle Mo capped off a sensational three race run, from maiden to Juvenile champion, in 2010. And of course, Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill.

Favorites: 11 for 29 (37%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)

The Scenario

Front Runners: Conquest Titan, Diamond Bachelor, Havana, Strong Mandate
Mid-pack: Dance With Fate, Medal Count, Mexikoma, New Year’s Day, Rum Point, Smarty’s Echo, We Miss Artie
Closers: Bond Holder, Cleburne, Tap It Rich

The Best

The speedy HAVANA will look to follow in the footsteps of a former Todd Pletcher trainee, Uncle Mo, with a Juvenile Score just year as their careers have been carbon copy’s up to this point. After a breathtaking, front running maiden win at Saratoga in August, Pletcher opted to wait for the Champagne and stretch Havana out.

Some six weeks later at Belmont, he did just that. Locked on some cheaper early speed in the early stages, Havana was dueling for the lead less than halfway to the wire and opened up turning for home, taking a four length lead into deep stretch. Then, amazingly, the highly regarded Honor Code came with a furious eight wide rally to just miss a bit of a leg weary Havana by a neck in a stirring stretch drive.

There is little doubt that Havana aided by a rail bias and was getting tired at the end of the mile but he was stretching out from 5 ½ furlongs, and set pretty fast fractions, with company, most of the way. There seems to be some other speed in here for him to deal with early on and he’ll have to negotiate an extra sixteenth of a mile and two turns for the first time.

One who disappointed in the Champagne was the Wayne Lukas trained STRONG MANDATE. Strong Mandate broke his maiden in the second start of his career in gate-to-wire fashion when adding blinkers then parlayed a perfect, just off the pace trip into a daylight score in the Hopeful on closing weekend at the Spa.

In the Champagne, it wasn’t lost on Lukas that the front end and the rail was the place to be and he instructed Jose Ortiz to have Strong Mandate forwardly placed like he usually is. Inexplicably, Strong Mandate was taken off the pace, kept on the worst part of the track and beat just two horses. A livid Lukas fired Ortiz immediately and will replace him with Joel Rosario for this.

I don’t care how often it happens, and with juveniles it happens enough, but I’m always impressed when a horse breaks their maiden against winners and that’s exactly what BOND HOLDER did last out, in a grade 1 stakes no less, for trainer Doug O’Neill.

Bond Holder made his first four starts on synthetic surfaces and while he hit the board in three of those starts he didn’t give the impression that he’d improve that much on dirt when you consider his off-the-pace running style is what you want on the synthetics. But he did, rallying from well off the pace to draw away to a 2 ¼ length win in the Front Runner over this course.

Speaking of impressive Santa Anita maiden scores, they don’t get better than TAP IT RICH. I get goose-bumps every time I watch the replay. Trained by Bob Baffert, Tap It Rich broke slow and hopped at the start before dropping over briefly to the inside. Going into the first turn he was immediately taken four wide and kept clear of any further trouble.

He made forward progress every step of the way down the backside before really starting to roll approaching the far turn. He made the lead, in the four path or so, on the turn and opened up under a hand ride through the stretch. Though the race was less than a month ago and this is obviously a HUGE step up in class, I wouldn’t be surprised if this colt pulled it off.

The Rest

CLEBURNE broke his maiden on the turf first out from far back at Ellis Park before making a similar run in the Iroquois last out when he got up by a neck at 34-1. He should be plenty fit with a pair of two turn races, as well as a stakes win at this distance, already under his belt.

CONQUEST TITAN broke his maiden in a minor stakes at Woodbine two starts back off of a two month layoff before an off the board finish in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last out, both run on synthetics.

DANCE WITH FATE comes into the Juvenile off a pair of runner-up finishes in G1 races, the Del Mar Futurity and Front Runner, a race in which he actually had the lead in turning for home.

DIAMOND BACHELOR will try the dirt for the first time having gone two for three on the turf so far. He won the first two starts of his career before tiring after a re-rally in a minor stakes last out. He’s been training well on the dirt for this.

MEDAL COUNT overcame a troubled trip in his Ellis Park debut at a mile to win impressively in an off the turf race before racing in traffic in the off the turf Bourbon last out. Another already with two races around two turns and this guy is bred to run all day.

MEXIKOMA didn’t raise a leg in his debut going long on the turf at Saratoga but exploded to break his maiden by almost 15 lengths when adding blinkers, switching to dirt and shipping to Delaware Park last out, coming home his final quarter in a sharp :24 1/5, an especially impressive feat for a young horse going long.

NEW YEAR’S DAY has been tearing up the track at Santa Anita in the morning for what will be his dirt and stakes debut. New Year’s Day finished third in his debut sprinting before stretching out to a mile to win last out in a race where he squandered a much bigger lead in mid-stretch to win by 1 ¾ lengths.

RUM POINT is another who’s raced exclusively over synthetics in four starts at Hollywood, Del Mar and Keeneland, where he finished fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity in his latest when adding blinkers.

SMARTY’S ECHO, second in the Breeder’s Futurity, encountered a bit of trouble early in the race and was six wide in the lane. He’ll be making his dirt debut in the Juvenile.

WE MISS ARTIE finished second in his debut on dirt then immediately broke his maiden when stretching out and switching to turf. We Miss Artie came from out of the clouds to take the Breeders’ Futurity last out after an off the board finish in the With Anticipation on turf.

The Strategy

When you consider that nine of the fourteen in here are eligible for an entry level allowance race and only half the field has won on dirt, you almost have to cover yourself in multi-race exotics with a spread unless you have a really strong opinion on something. I happen to think that while he’s certainly a contender to win, I think Havana, who’s your likely chalk, is vulnerable, so spreading out a bit, for me, is a no-brainer.

The Bomb

Mexikoma impressed me in his maiden score. I normally am not impressed with final times and fractions but that’s a really good race for that track. Take a flyer at 15-1.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:13 AM

BC - Juvenile Fillies

October 27, 2013

Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures

The Juvenile Fillies

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: 2YO fillies
Date: Saturday, Nov. 2
Time: 3:05 p.m. EDT

The History

Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star and Silverbulletday are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event. My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. With favorites winning at a 60% clip, it is by far the chalkiest Breeders’ Cup event.

Favorites: 17 for 29 (60%)
Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990) *Shortest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
Highest: $96 (Caressing, 2000)

The Scenario

Front Runners: Artemis Agrotera, Scandalous Act, She’s a Tiger
Mid-pack: Ria Antonia, Secret Compass, Untapable
Closers: Concave, Designer Legs, Rosalind, Sweet Reason

The Best

The two major preps that figure to have the biggest impact on this race are the Frizette at Belmont and the Chandelier at Santa Anita. Luckily, we have the one two finishers from both races to duke it out in here.

The complexion of the Frizette changed just after the start when SWEET REASON swerved in towards the break in the rail of the mile chute at Belmont and was left even further behind than she normally is. Amazingly she managed to gather herself and come running through the stretch to finish second for trainer Leah Gyarmati.

Before the Frizette debacle, her first on a dry track, Sweet Reason broke her maiden from far back, and then won the Spinaway by daylight. Both races were run at Saratoga over a sloppy track.

While Sweet Reason was overcoming a ton of adversity, including an inside speed biased course, ARTEMIS AGROTERA took serious advantage of it all.

Making her first start since galloping in her debut by almost a dozen lengths against New York breds at Saratoga for trainer Mike Hushion, Artemis Agrotera sat just off the early pace in the Frizette, made the lead approaching the far turn, then dug in gamely when Sweet Reason came calling to win by a 1 ¼ lengths.

Now, both fillies will need to go past a mile and handle two turns for the first time, a pair of issues neither SECRET COMPASS nor SHE’S A TIGER have to worry about, as they both contested the 1 1/16 miles Chandelier last out.

She’s a Tiger entered the Chandelier off a gutsy score in the Del Mar Debutante and had won three of four starts overall while Secret Compass, fourth in the Del Mar Debutante, owned just a maiden win from three starts

The two sat just off the early pace and raced in tandem most of the way until Jeff Bonde trained She’s a Tiger grabbed a narrow lead turning for home. But Bob Baffert’s Secret Compass kept on coming and eventually wore She’s a Tiger down to win by a head.

The Rest

CONCAVE will be making her two turn and dirt debut coming off a third place finish in the Del Mar Debutante run over a synthetic course. Concave won on turf at first asking at Hollywood Park before coming from just off the pace to win the Sorrento, also at Del Mar.

DESIGNER LEGS started her career with three straight victories, including one via DQ in the Adirondack at Saratoga but hasn’t come close in her last two in the Spinaway and Alcibiades run over a sloppy track and synthetic surface, respectively. She’s perfect in two starts on dry dirt, though those races were at Canterbury Park and Prairie Meadows.

RIA ANTONIA broke her maiden in the second start of her career against the boys while sprinting over the Woodbine Polytrack but hasn’t come close against the gals in her other three starts, all stakes, including the Frizette last out where she finished fifth.

ROSALIND has hit the board in all three starts, all run over different surfaces. She broke her maiden in her debut on the grass at Ellis Park, closed well to finish third in the Pocahontas then finished a fast closing second in the Alcibiades when adding Lasix. It’s worth noting her success without Lasix since it is not allowed in any of the four Juvenile races.

SCANDALOUS ACT has taken the Awesome Feather route, the one by way of the Florida Stallion Series, to the race this season. Scandalous Act split the first two decisions of her career before adding blinkers to win those three restricted stakes of Florida breds by a combined 22 lengths, including the two turn My Dear Girl by 5 ¾ lengths last out.

UNTAPABLE will be making her first start in 54 days in the Juvenile Fillies and has only worked a handful of times since her last race, an off the pace score in the Pocahontas. Prior to that start, Untapable broke her maiden in her debut sprinting on the lead in late June while racing on the lead.

The Strategy

I’m very curious to see how the wagering plays out in here. It’s tough for me to separate the top four and I think it’ll be tough for the public to as well. I think it’s going to come down to a good old East Coast/West Coast decision because using all four is foolish for your bankroll.

The Bomb

Scandalous Act has already won four times and around two turns impressively. She should be on or near the lead over a course that historically plays kindly to speed. Take a flyer at 12-1 or higher.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:15 AM

BC - Filly & Mare Sprint

October 28, 2013

Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures

The Filly & Mare Sprint

Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1,000,000
Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
Date: Saturday, Nov. 2
Time: 4:21 p.m. EDT

The History

Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance.

Favorites: 1 for 6 (17%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $42.40 (Musical Romance, 2011)
The champ is here? Yes, Groupie Doll is back to defend her crown.

The Scenario

Front Runners: Ismene, Sweet Lulu, Teddy’s Promise
Mid-pack: Dance to Bristol, Great Hot, Judy the Beauty, Starship Truffles, Summer Applause
Closers: Book Review, Dance Card, Groupie Doll, Renee’s Titan

The Best

Though she has one just once in three starts this year, the defending champ GROUPIE DOLL is back to try and become the first two time winner of this event. Groupie Doll flew home through the stretch to win this by 4 ½ lengths last year, one of only a handful of horses to make up any serious ground over the course of the championship weekend over a course that was very kind to speed and front running types. It was her fifth win from eight tries to that point.

She finished the year with a gallant, tough beat second behind Stay Thirsty in the Cigar Mile against the boys before being put away for the year. A few infirmaries kept her out of the entry box until August, when she finished third going a two turn mile at Ellis Park in the Gardenia.

Groupie Doll returned to the winners’ circle in the Presque Isle Masters, a race she won last year before finishing third in the TCA last out, another event she won handily in 2012. In this years’ running, Groupie Doll was forced to chase the pace early and never kicked in the latter stages for trainer Buff Bradley.

While it appears Groupie Doll has regressed a bit this past year, DANCE TO BRISTOL has certainly come into her own. She finished second in the first start of the year and last out, when she was on the worst part of the race track on the outside as the speedy, undefeated Cluster of Stars gunned from a golden rail to comfortably win the Gallant Bloom.

Sandwiched in between those two loses, however, are seven consecutive win streak that has seen her win at five different tracks going three different distances for trainer Ollie Figgins. She won races like the Bed of Roses, Honorable Miss and the Ballerina, her first G1 score, going this distance, by a head over BOOK REVIEW.

Speaking of Book Review, she’s won or placed in all five starts since being transferred to trainer Bob Baffert’s stable late last season. She made her SoCal debut a winning one over this course going this distance in the La Brea, her first G1 tally, by a neck over a talented field that included multiple stakes winners Reneesgotzip and 2011 two-year-old filly champ My Miss Aurelia.

After finishing second in a pair of stakes going two turns, Book Review won the A Gleam over the Hollywood Cushion track before that narrow defeat in the Ballerina in her most recent start some ten weeks ago.

SWEET LULU is a perfect three for three in sprints and suffered the first loss of her career when finishing second to Distaff contender Close Hatches in the Cotillion going 1 1/16 miles at Parx most recently. Two starts back, Sweet Lulu won her only other start on dirt, the Test, at Saratoga going this trip by a head after alternating on the lead through wicked early fractions for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

After winning the first two starts of her career sprinting, Sweet Lulu won a second level allowance contest going a two turn mile before the Test, so she’s already proven that she can successfully handle a cut back in distance.

The Rest

DANCE CARD had a tremendous three-year-old season last year, winning four in a row including the Gazelle at Aqueduct on Thanksgiving weekend, before being laid up until last September when she finished third in the Gallant Bloom after brushing the gate at the break and racing wide on the aforementioned inside biased speed track.

GREAT HOT comes into this off of four straight losses, including her last two in sprints. Her lone win in six starts this year came when she stole away to an easy lead against Book Review in the Santa Maria. While second to Teddy’s Promise last out, she’s just one for five at this distance and appears to prefer routes to sprints.

ISMENE won the first three starts of her career, including two over this course and one at the distance, back in 2011 but is winless in her six starts this year after missing all of 2012. She shed blinkers in late April and while she has finished second in three of her last four without them she continues to get run down in the latter stages of her races.

JUDY THE BEAUTY upset Groupie Doll in the TCA last out over the synthetic course at Keeneland, a surface she is perfect in three starts over. In fact Judy the Beauty’s five career wins have come over synthetics and on the turf as she is winless in five starts on dirt, having finished second in each of those starts. Earlier this year she was the runner-up in the Princess Rooney at Calder, arguably her best conventional dirt effort.

RENEE’S TITAN is the only filly to have beaten Distaff contender Beholder this year in what was her only win and board placing this season. Since that upset of the Santa Ynez at 20-1 to begin the year, Renee’s Titan has finished off the board in four straight, beaten a combined 63 lengths in the process on all three surfaces.

Princess Rooney winner STARSHIP TRUFFLES ships in from Calder off of a pair of sub-par efforts in the Ballerina and last out in a minor stakes at Gulfstream. A winner of 14 starts from 26 outings, Starship Truffles was claimed for $6,250 last July and has earned close to $400K since.

SUMMER APPLAUSE will sprint for the first time in nearly two years having raced exclusively around two turns for the past 23 months. She’s kept good company, having run against the likes of F&M Turf runner Emollient, Distaff favorite Royal Delta and G1 winner Tiz Miz Sue but has done her best against the lower tiers of her division. Perhaps the cut back in distance will help.

TEDDY’S PROMISE has won four times since finishing a well beaten eighth in last years’ renewal of this, including wins in the Santa Monica earlier this year and the L.A. Woman last out from just off the pace. Overall, she’s won five of her nine tries over this course and three of eight at the distance. Two starts back she finished second to Book Review in the A Gleam.

The Strategy

If Groupie Doll was the same horse she was last year coming into this, it would be a forgone conclusion but I doubt that’s the case here. Of course, she can win the race but I have to think she’s vulnerable. You have a couple of salty fillies new to the scene this year and it should make for an exciting running of this event. I’d use the champ but think you MUST protect yourself with a few others, especially in the multi-race wagers.

The Bomb

Dance Card had the look of a fine filly in the making last year and could still fulfill that promise, especially if she shows up here. 10-1 or better is a great price on a filly that may very well be the most talented of this bunch.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:16 AM

BC - Filly & Mare Turf

October 28, 2013

Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures

The Filly & Mare Turf

Distance: 1 ¼ miles on turf
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and up
Date: Saturday, Nov 2
Time: 3:43 p.m. EDT

The History

Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners.

Favorites: 4 for 14 (31%)
Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
U.S based: 9/Foreign based: 5
The champ is here? No

The Scenario

Front Runners: Laughing,
Mid-pack: Alterite, Dank, Emollient, Marketing Mix, Romantica, Tiz Flirtatious
Closers: Kitten’s Dumplings, Lady of Shamrock, Qushchi

The Best

Should she be able to overcome the fact that her connections admitted that she is a notoriously bad shipper, LAUGHING appears to hold a tactical edge over this field as she appears to be loose on the lead when you study the PPs.

An underachiever coming into this season as she was nothing more than a G3 stakes winner, Laughing has really turned it around, winning all four of her starts in 2013. She sat just off the pace to win the Eatontown at Monmouth to start the season before going gate-to-wire in her next three starts, the Diana and Ballston Spa at Saratoga, and the Flower Bowl going this trip, last out.

Perhaps more importantly, she won those three starts while setting fast, moderate and dawdling fractions, which shows her versatility on the front end for trainer Alan Goldberg.

Last years’ F&M Turf runner-up MARKETING MIX seems to have lost a step, in this her five-year-old season, but is still a dangerous foe on her best day. She started the season with a pair of victories in the Gamely and the Sunset going 1 ½ miles against the boys.

But in her two starts since she hasn’t looked like herself. She sat a perfect trip as the even money favorite in the Beverly D. at Arlington but failed to fire when trudging home fourth then couldn’t parlay another great trip in the Rodeo Drive into a victory last out when TIZ FLIRTATIOUS ran by her in the final yards Trainer Tom Proctor has to be hoping her affinity for the distance and course will help her find that extra punch she’ll need to win this.

Speaking of Tiz Flirtatious, her trainer Martin Jones has to be tickled to death with the season his filly is having and how she’s coming into this. Four for five overall this season, her lone blemish is a head defeat in the Gamely to Marketing Mix, a loss she avenged last out with her Rodeo Drive score.

Earlier this year, Tiz Flirtatious won both the Santa Ana and Mabee and overall has won four of five starts and finished second in here career over this course. In twelve career starts, she has never missed the board and has won or placed in all eight turf tries.

With The Fugue opting to take on the boys and the 1 ½ miles of the Turf, Beverly D winner DANK has to be viewed as Europe’s best hope to win this event for the sixth time. Racing on Lasix for the first time in the Beverly D, Dank raced in midpack most of the way, went wide on the final turn, then powered by the field like they were standing still to win by a going away 4 ¼ lengths.

This will be Dank’s first start since the Beverly D, run 10 weeks ago, but I doubt that’s a concern for her trainer Sir Michael Stoute, one of the best on the planet, especially when you consider Dank has already won off of a pair of seven month layoffs and a similar nine week layoff in her career.

The Rest

ALTERITE made her U.S. debut a winning one two starts back in the Garden City with an impressive final quarter mile to win by 1 ½ lengths before missing by just a neck in the QEII Cup at Keeneland last out. Earlier this year, Alterite faced Europe’s top sophomore fillies in such races as the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks. This will be her third start in just seven weeks and her first against older horses.

EMOLLIENT came flying home through the stretch to take the Spinster over the Polytrack at Keeneland last out in her first start against her elders. It was her second G1 score at Keeneland this season having won the Ashland this past spring in gate-to-wire fashion. In her two turf starts, she won the American Oaks at this distance at Hollywood in July before finishing off the board when bottled up inside for most of the trip in the Garden City.

Another three-year-old trying older for the first time is KITTEN’S DUMPLINGS. She’s won four of her eight starts this season, including victories in the Edgewood and Regret at Churchill, the Lake George at Saratoga and in the QEII Cup last out. All of her wins have come by way of her patented, last-to-first sweep to the lead in the final stages, so she should appreciated the added distance in here as she’s never raced past 1 1/8 miles.

LADY OF SHAMROCK was beaten just 2 ½ lengths in this even last year when she scored in multiple graded stakes but is just one for six this season with her lone victory coming via DQ in the Santa Barbara this past winter. She’s finished behind Marketing Mix and Tiz Flirtatious numerous times this season but just can’t seem to make up the handful of lengths she needs to in order to beat the top tier.

QUSHCHI is just one for six since making her stateside debut earlier this year, and is just 4 for 27 overall. Save her maiden tally at seven furlongs, all of her other victories have come going 1 ½ miles and she failed to do any real damage when fourth in the Flower Bowl last out, her first start against G1 foes.

ROMANTICA ships in from Europe for the powerful Fabre stable sporting three wins and a second place finish from four starts at the distance. She’s already handled firm ground in Europe and tallied the first G1 of her career two starts back when making her first start off of a near three month layoff. Her dam, Banks Hill, won the 2001 running of this then finished second in the race in 2002.

The Strategy

Laughing is loose on the lead. There is no denying that. The question is can she finish the job against the best field she’ll face all year? If you think she can, then she is your key horse. If you don’t, then you have to decide if you’re taking the Euros, the older Americans, or one of the young ladies representing the states.

The Bomb

Emollient figures to get lost in the wagering shuffle. I love the fact that she won her lone turf start in SoCal and think you’ll get 12-1 or more on her.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:18 AM

Ranked by Earnings

Horses with at least one N. A. start,

through 10/27/2013

Animal Kingdom $6,060,000
Orb 2,557,566
Game On Dude 2,470,000
Will Take Charge 1,733,200
Wise Dan 1,651,972
Verrazano 1,556,300
Princess of Sylmar (f) 1,539,000
Palace Malice 1,419,135
Departing 1,380,100
The Apache (SAF) 1,374,245
Lines of Battle 1,210,549
Oxbow 1,146,000
Ron the Greek 1,138,094
Close Hatches (f) 1,007,300
Royal Delta (f) 987,275
Revolutionary 950,000
Up With the Birds 948,953
Laughing (IRE) (f) 930,000
Big Blue Kitten 902,800
Emollient (f) 852,100
Dance to Bristol (f) 821,430
Silver Max 789,193
Graydar 780,000
Beholder (f) 760,000
Sahara Sky 740,000
Goldencents 718,000
Fiftyshadesofhay (f) 708,057
Dandino (GB) 704,684
Itsmyluckyday 704,500
Overanalyze 702,000
Cross Traffic 687,967
Real Solution 675,500
Trade Storm (GB) 675,400
Joshua Tree (IRE) 672,327
Justin Phillip 671,275
Moreno 663,090
Flat Out 658,000
Authenticity (f) 634,492
Midnight Aria 630,625
Forty Tales 627,589
Power Broker 623,012
Side Glance (GB) 608,000
Discreet Marq (f) 607,500
Sweet Lulu (f) 603,600
Dank (GB) (f) 597,867
Kitten's Dumplings (f) 581,514
Clubhouse Ride 581,374
Joyful Victory (f) 579,600
Tannery (IRE) (f) 562,872
Hunter's Light (IRE) 556,397

Updated Mon Oct 28 6:00 AM EDT

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:25 AM

Ranked by Earnings through 10/27/2013


Castellano J J $20,872,499
Velazquez J R 19,100,441
Rosario Joel 18,041,343
Bejarano Rafael 12,400,788
Napravnik Rosie 11,653,979
Ortiz, Jr. Irad 11,597,098
Lezcano Jose 11,577,129
Alvarado Junior 11,042,328
Smith Mike E. 10,939,445
Ortiz Jose L. 10,269,026
Saez Luis 10,120,308
Velasquez C 9,321,440
Leparoux Julien R. 8,998,489
Talamo Joseph 8,516,264
Contreras Luis 7,980,001
Da Silva Eurico Rosa 7,839,393
Garcia M 7,432,839
Maldonado E 7,123,768
Maragh Rajiv 7,114,826
Gomez G K 6,393,715
Bridgmohan S X 6,385,302
Prado E S 6,288,627
Albarado R J 6,256,714
Stevens G L 6,180,988
Carmouche Kendrick 5,837,820

Ranked by Wins through 10/27/2013


Castellano J J 1414 302 269 192
Baze R A 911 257 176 150
Rosario Joel 1106 246 192 164
Napravnik Rosie 1047 226 180 139
Paucar Edgar 829 212 175 130
Bejarano Rafael 955 209 198 127
Montano Jose 862 198 152 118
Lopez Paco 866 191 119 115
Ortiz Jose L. 1153 188 177 135
Eramia Richard E. 1024 185 180 148
Parker D L 1102 184 171 163
Acosta J D 968 182 149 141
De La Cruz Fernando 1106 179 173 142
Velazquez J R 921 178 160 133
Ortiz, Jr. Irad 1247 175 165 218
Franklin Malcolm 941 175 120 119
Hernandez Rafael Manuel 690 174 111 95
Maldonado E 1032 172 133 132
Alvarado Junior 943 172 119 111
Velasquez C 1008 169 171 147
Zayas Edgard J. 855 164 112 122
Birzer A E 907 163 140 125
Carmouche Kendrick 757 158 149 99
Saenz Diego 645 158 112 93
Houghton T D 1267 157 186 171
Contreras Luis 892 157 143 128

Updated Mon Oct 28 6:00 AM EDT

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33122 Followers:38
10/29/2013 01:26 AM

Ranked by Earnings through 10/27/2013


Pletcher Todd A $21,827,076
Baffert Bob 11,956,050
Chad C. Brown 11,500,541
Asmussen Steven M 10,326,415
Mott William I 9,898,124
Hollendorfer Jerry 8,802,910
Maker Michael J 7,489,873
Casse Mark 7,090,562
Sadler John W 6,761,582
McGaughey III Claude R 6,318,467
O'Neill Doug 5,881,392
McLaughlin Kiaran P 5,739,453
David Jacobson 5,590,790
Catalano Wayne M 5,369,054
Motion H Graham 5,170,259
Clement Christophe 5,088,664
Amoss Thomas 4,925,424
Lukas D Wayne 4,661,463
Rudy R. Rodriguez 4,581,536
McPeek Kenneth G 4,364,973
Romans Dale 4,347,880
Rice Linda 4,077,890
Albertrani Thomas 3,721,491
Ness Jamie 3,662,324
Ward Wesley A 3,599,851

Ranked by Wins through 10/27/2013


Asmussen Steven M 1227 266 183 187
Karl Broberg 779 210 147 100
Hollendorfer Jerry 868 201 141 130
Ness Jamie 761 199 131 101
Maker Michael J 817 191 146 113
Pletcher Todd A 761 182 150 112
Amoss Thomas 489 155 98 69
Englehart Chris 609 141 112 99
Evans Justin 633 140 121 92
Hugh I. McMahon 560 140 118 85
David Jacobson 631 137 114 97
Brueggemann Roger 470 134 73 67
Chad C. Brown 469 129 91 73
Lake Scott A 683 128 100 106
Catalano Wayne M 571 120 82 69
Jeffrey A. Radosevich 584 119 94 78
Runco Jeff C 515 118 94 83
Motion H Graham 592 114 100 95
Dominguez Henry 525 114 89 77
Casse Mark 579 112 81 64
Diodoro Robertino 502 110 101 65
Pish Danny 528 110 80 90
O'Neill Doug 678 109 96 102
McLean Robertson 513 109 86 82
Baffert Bob 482 109 76 57

Updated Mon Oct 28 6:00 AM EDT

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: