cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 12:57 AM

Big Ten Report - Week 13

November 22, 2013

Week 12 watched the favorites go 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread. The lone underdog to win was Michigan, who defeated Northwestern 27-19 in a triple-overtime battle. Despite playing three extra sessions, the combined 46 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 48 ½ points. The ‘over’ went 3-1 in the other four games.


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 3-7 0-6 5-5 6-4

Indiana 4-6 2-4 4-6 8-2

Iowa 6-4 3-3 6-4 6-4

Michigan 7-3 3-3 5-5 5-5

Michigan State 9-1 6-0 6-3-1 4-6

Minnesota 8-2 4-2 7-3 6-4

Nebraska 7-3 4-2 5-5 5-5

Northwestern 4-6 0-6 3-7 3-7

Ohio State 10-0 6-0 6-3-1 7-3

Penn State 6-4 3-3 4-6 6-4

Purdue 1-9 0-6 2-8 5-5

Wisconsin 8-2 5-1 9-0-1 4-5

Ohio State (-34 ½, 81) vs. Indiana (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Ohio State scored 56+ points for the third consecutive week as Urban Meyer's crew continues to try to earn “style points” against porous competition. OSU used an interception return TD and a punt return TD in the 1st half to jump out to a 35-14 first half lead. The Bucks doubled their score in the 2nd half to notch the 60-35 victory. Illinois did cut the deficit to 12-points mid-4th quarter, but OSU was never in serious danger of losing the lead. They ran for 441 yards on 42 carries (10.2 YPC) to make up for a below-average passing day from Braxton Miller (13-of-29 for 150 yards). Defensively this wasn’t OSU’s best performance. Illinois came in to the game averaging 21.2 PPG in Big Ten play, but OSU allowed 420 yards, 24 first downs, and 35 points. OSU will look to add another blowout win to its resume and clinch the Leaders Division title with a win over Indiana on Saturday. The Hoosiers are off of their weakest effort of the season. A normally explosive offense was held in check in terrible weather conditions against a very strong Wisconsin defense. IU came in averaging 527 yards and 43 points per game. The Hoosiers were held to just 224 yards and 3 points against the Badgers. They had two turnovers and were just 3-for-12 on third downs. The defense remains a mess, as Indiana surrendered a record 554 rush yards, including seven gains of 30 yards or more. IU now ranks 124th in total defense and 117th in scoring defense. It will need a miracle against Ohio State on Saturday and another win vs. Purdue next week just to reach bowl eligibility. OSU has won 18 straight over Indiana. IU has covered back-to-back games against OSU including last year’s narrow three-point loss at home. Ohio State is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games as a 30+ point favorite. IU is 1-4 as an underdog this season.

Wisconsin (-16 ½, 50) at Minnesota (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Wisconsin RB James White ran for a 93-yard touchdown on the Badgers’ first offensive play of the game and UW never looked back as it made Indiana look hapless last week. The Badgers racked up 554 rush yards on 11.1 YPC (2nd highest rush total in team history) as three different players rushed for 100 yards for the third time this season. They were able to churn out 27 first downs and control the ball for +16 minutes TOP. The defense was outstanding. It held Indiana’s high-octane offense to just 224 yards, 14 first downs, and 3 points. Wisconsin’s defense has now held six of its 10 opponents to 10 points or fewer and it ranks 6th in total defense and 5th in scoring defense. This week it’s the annual rivalry game against Minnesota, and this edition figures to be a bit closer than recent years. Motivation won’t be lacking for the Gophers this season as Wisconsin comes to town with the Axe on the line for the biggest home game in recent memory. The Gophers have won four straight games and had last week off to prepare for this game. QB Nelson has 7 TD and 0 INT during the four game win-streak while RB Cobb has over 100 rush yards during the streak. Wisconsin’s defense will be the best defense Minnesota has faced to date and they’ll need Nelson and Cobb to step up yet again. The defense has stepped up nicely and the rankings don’t reflect how well it’s playing at the moment. This stop-unit will have its hands full with Wisconsin’s offense that ranks 12th in yards per game and 19th in points per game. Wisconsin has won nine consecutive games against Minnesota, including three straight by 24 points per game. Bonus: The ‘over’ is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Michigan State (-7 ½, 41) at Northwestern (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Spartans are a win -- or a Minnesota loss -- from punching their ticket to Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game. They’ve now won six straight games after finding themselves in a surprisingly high-scoring game Saturday against Nebraska. The Spartans’ defense uncharacteristically allowed chunks of yards and a few big scoring plays to the Huskers, but were able to force five turnovers and control the clock (+17 minutes TOP) to put Nebraska away. QB Cook was a solid game manager (193 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) and RB Langford rushed for 151 yards and three scores – his fifth consecutive game with 100+ yards on the ground. Sparty has now scored 40+ points in three of its last five games. They won’t be lacking motivation with a Legends Division title on the line as they travel to Northwestern this weekend. The Wildcats won’t be lacking for motivation either. Northwestern’s nightmare streak continued last week as it looked like they had an upset in hand against Michigan. The Wolves were able to rush the field goal squad on the field and kick a game-tying field goal as time expired to send the game into overtime – where they won. The defense was fantastic all game as it held Michigan without a touchdown during regulation. Unfortunately the offense failed to reach the endzone as well. NW managed just 143 rush yards on 2.9 YPC and QB’s Siemian & Colter failed to stretch the field with just 179 pass yards on 23-of-34 passing. Not only are they eager to snap a six-game losing streak, but another loss would officially eliminate them from bowl eligibility. Of their last four losses, two were by three points and the other two were in overtime. Northwestern won in East Lansing last year to snap a four-game losing streak to the Spartans. MSU had +116 yards and +6 first downs, but turned the ball over four times in the three point home loss. Northwestern is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog in the Big Ten.

Iowa (-6, 47 ½) vs. Michigan (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Both teams are already bowl eligible, but both are out of the Legends division race. Iowa comes into the game off of a bye week with a chance to close out the season strong with wins over Michigan & Nebraska. It wouldn’t be all that surprising either, considering that Iowa's four losses all have come against ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Northern Illinois). In their last game, the Hawkeyes racked up 318 rushing yards, including 165 by Jordan Canzeri. The defense limited Purdue to just 266 total yards, 12 first downs, and 14 points. Iowa’s defense has been underrated all season long and ranks 9th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. They’ll look to continue their strong defensive play against a Michigan offense that has scored just one regulation touchdown the past three weeks. Michigan was one second away from losing its third consecutive game last week against Northwestern. They were very smooth at getting their kicking squad on the field in under 12 seconds before kicking the game-tying field goal as time expired. The Wolves went on to win in overtime and provided some momentum going forward despite another shaky performance from QB Gardner (24-of-43 passing). Defensively Michigan was outstanding as it held Northwestern to just 322 yards and 2.9 YPC. Iowa is 5-4 SU in the last nine meetings with Michigan, including a 3-1 mark at home (9-3-2 ATS run over the Wolves). Michigan is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as a Big Ten underdog on the road.

Penn State (-2, 50) vs. Nebraska (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Penn State has alternated wins and losses since September 7th. The Nittany Lions’ three Big Ten wins have come at home while their three Big Ten losses have come on the road. They won at home against Purdue last week, 45-21. Credit the Lions for not panicking when Purdue cut the lead to seven points after building a 28-7 lead. PSU regrouped and scored the final 17 points to win by 24 points. QB Hackenberg had an efficient day with 212 pass yards on 16-of-23 passing while RB’s Zwinak and Belton combined for 230 rush yards and 4 TD. The defense is still a problem and it did allow more points, 21, to Purdue than any other Big Ten team has allowed to the Boilers (granted one was a special team’s touchdown). They play at home again this weekend for senior night against the Huskers. Nebraska fell victim to the Spartans last week despite a valiant offensive effort against the top defense in the nation. The Huskers put up 392 yards and 28 points (both are most allowed by MSU all season) including three touchdowns of 30 yards or more. The defense also played well (361 yards allowed) but Nebraska lost four fumbles and tossed an interception to finish -5 in the turnover battle. RB Abdullah rushed for over 100 yards for the ninth time this season and Nebraska will try to use him against this PSU “D” that has allowed 172 rush YPG over the past six contests. Nebraska has won the only two meetings as conference foes the past two years (both games were pushes ATS).

Illinois (-6 ½, 56 ½) at Purdue (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
It’s not often that you’ll get a team on a 20-game conference losing streak as a conference road favorite, but enter Illinois vs. Purdue. One of these squads will get its first Big Ten victory of the season. Despite long losing streaks, both teams have been playing better as of late. Illinois has scored 35 points apiece in back-to-back losses. Illini QB Scheelhaase has averaged 353 pass YPG over the last three weeks with five TD passes. Meanwhile, Purdue has scored five touchdowns the past two weeks after only notching one the previous three games. Freshman QB Danny Etling (223 pass yards) had a decent day throwing the ball but remains a major work in progress. The good news for both offenses is that they get to face the opposing defense. Illinois ranks 116th in total defense and 110th in scoring defense. Purdue ranks 102nd in total defense and 113th in scoring defense. Purdue is 7-1 SU against Illinois the last eight meetings. That includes a 4-0 mark at home (3-1 ATS) winning by an average of 21 PPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 12:58 AM

Pac-12 Report - Week 13

November 22, 2013

These final two weekends in the Pac-12 should be very spirited. All but California has something to play for, as 11 of the league's 12 teams could still qualify for bowl eligibility, even Colorado.

Next week we'll get the USC-UCLA game, the Apple Cup between Washington-Washington State, the Civil War between Oregon-Oregon State and the battle of the Grand Canyon State between Arizona-Arizona State. But this weekend we get a rivalry game, too. While Cal-Stanford certainly loses a lot of fanfare because of Cal's atrocious record, and Stanford's loss to USC last weekend, not one person sees this game on the schedule and doesn't picture a trombone player getting knocked over in the end zone after the most amazing set of laterals ever filmed. If you think of anything else, then something is wrong.


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 6-4 3-4 4-6 3-7

Arizona State 8-2 6-1 5-5 7-3

California 1-10 0-8 2-9 4-6-1

Colorado 4-6 1-6 5-5 7-3

Oregon 9-1 6-1 7-3 6-4

Oregon State 6-4 4-3 5-5 5-5

Southern California 8-3 5-2 6-5 3-8

Stanford 8-2 6-2 5-5 4-6

UCLA 8-2 5-2 7-3 4-6

Utah 4-6 1-6 5-5 3-7

Washington 6-4 3-4 5-5 5-5

Washington State 5-5 3-4 7-3 5-4-1

Oregon at Arizona (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Oregon was given a gift last weekend from their 'friends' in Southern California, knocking off Stanford and giving the Ducks new hope of an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Ducks, 12-2 ATS in their past 14 road games, need to take care of business in Arizona first. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a winning record, and 9-1 ATS in their past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record, so things are looking up for UO. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are still a team on the rise, but not quite there. They are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven against winning teams. They need a signature win to prove they're back, but will it be this weekend? Stanford certainly hopes so.

California at Stanford (FOX Sports 1, 4:00 p.m. ET)
It's the 116th version of 'The Big Game', and with most rivalry games, you can throw trends, past results, etc. right out the window. The line for this game opened at 28, and has already shot up to 31 and 32 at most shops. It will be interesting to see how much pride the Bears, who have been a mess most of the season, can generate to try and stay in this game. The Cardinal will likely be an angry group after having a victory slip away at USC last weekend, and with it their chances at a BCS Bowl and chance at a national title fade in one fell swoop. The point spread is believed to be the largest in the history of this rivalry game, and Stanford very well might cover. Although, keep in mind, Cal is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings in Palo Alto, and the road team has covered four straight in this series. Of course, this is, by far, the worst Cal team during any of that stretch, and maybe ever. The under could be the play, as it has cashed in four straight road games for Cal, and is 6-1-1 in Cal's past eight. The under is 5-0 in Stanford's past five, and 21-6-1 in the past 28 against a team with a losing record. The total sits at 55 currently.

Arizona State at UCLA (FOX, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Sun Devils are looking to turn around some ugly trends against the Bruins lately. AZ State is 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Pasadena. The Sun Devils are trying to turn around some ugly trends recently, too. They're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, 2-8 ATS in their past 10 contests in the month of November, and 4-9 ATS when following up an ATS loss. The Bruins, on the other hand, have been dominant lately. UCLA has covered four of their past five home games, and seven of their past 10 overall. And they're 5-1 ATS in their past six following a cover in their previous game. UCLA is actually a 2.5-to3-point underdog at home.

Southern California at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 9:30 p.m. ET)
The USC Trojans went from a laughing stock under Lane Kiffin to one of the most feared teams in the nation under Ed Orgeron, leaving many Trojans fans wondering what could have been if Orgeron started the season as the head man. The Trojans have covered five in a row in the conference, four straight overall, and they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven road outings against a team with a losing home record. However, one thing they need to show they can do more consistently is cover on the road. USC is just 2-10 ATS in their past 12 road games. Colorado is 5-11 ATS in their past 16 at home, and 10-22 ATS in their past 32 games overall. The Buffs have covered just nine of their past 32 against a team with a winning record, and eight of their past 29 conference tilts, as well. That 23-point number doesn't look too terribly formidable the way USC has been playing.

Washington at Oregon State (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m. ET)
This contest features a couple of teams looking to save their seasons with a seventh win. While both are already bowl eligible, another loss might mean a lesser paying bowl game played in mid-December rather than a more favorable game later in the month with a bigger paycheck. The Huskies are just 4-11 ATS in their past 15 road games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five conference tilts. If they can get RB Bishop Sankey going, and keep him going, they should be tough. However, they lost QB Keith Price (shoulder) in the last game, and QB Cyler Miles might be forced into his first-ever start. The Beavers have dropped three in a row, and their offense has gone south in a hurry. They were a finely tuned machine until USC came to town and trounced them. Ever since, they Beavers have been in a tailspin. Playing a rival with a backup QB could be the thing to snap them out of their funk. The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Corvallis, and 1-8 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. Due to Price's uncertain status, this game is currently off the board.

Other Games
Utah at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 3:30pm ET)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 01:00 AM

Line Moves - Week 13

November 22, 2013

Week 12 Recap

Favorites: 5-0 (5-0 SU)
Underdogs: 0-2 (0-2 SU)
Totals: 3-2

For the first time all season, gamblers following the line moves saw the favorites go 5-0 both straight up and against the spread last week. For the most part, the victories were never in doubt as Wisconsin, Florida Atlantic, East Carolina, Baylor and Boise State rolled. The underdogs went 0-2 and we feel bad for the professionals who took Northwestern. The Wildcats were in position to snap their five-game losing streak to Michigan but a late field goal forced overtime and head coach Pat Fitzgerald's team came up short once again. Since Northwestern collapsed against Ohio State in early October, it has dropped six straight games and needs to win out to become bowl eligible. The totals went 1-4 last week, a couple of the moves proved to be correct, in particular the Connecticut-SMU and West Virginia-Kansas matchups.

Week 13 Line Moves

CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 13 last Sunday. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.


Ohio State vs. Indiana
Open: Buckeyes -31 ½
Friday: Buckeyes -34 ½

Central Michigan vs. Massachusetts
Open: Chippewas -8 ½
Friday: Chippewas -12

Stanford vs. California
Open: Cardinal -28 ½
Friday: Cardinal -31 ½

Boise State at San Diego State
Open: Broncos -7 ½
Friday: Broncos -4 ½

Week 13 Total Moves

CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Tuesday and there was only one game that saw any significant movement this week.

Texas A&M at LSU
Open: 70
Friday: 73

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 01:02 AM

Baylor at Oklahoma State

November 22, 2013

Matchup: No. 3 Baylor at No. 11 Oklahoma State
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium (Artificial) from Stillwater, Oklahoma
Date: Saturday, Nov. 23, 2013
Time/TV: 8:00 pm. ET - ABC
Line: Baylor -9 ½, Over/Under 78 ½
Last Meeting: 2012, Baylor (-4) 41 vs. Oklahoma State 34

The Big 12 won’t be decided in Stillwater on Saturday night, but the winner of Oklahoma State vs. Baylor will certainly be in the driver’s seat to win the conference title.

As of early Wednesday, most betting shops had Baylor (9-0 straight up, 8-1 against the spread) installed as a 9 ½-point favorite with a total of 78. Gamblers can take the Cowboys on the money line for a +305 payout (risk $100 to win $305).

Baylor has won all nine of its games by double-digit margins and eight of those victories have come by 29 points or more. Now certainly, part of that speaks to a weak non-conference schedule, but much of that speaks to absolute dominance and incredibly dynamic offense.

Art Briles’s team fell behind 14-0 vs. Texas Tech at Cowboy Stadium last weekend, but Baylor shook off the early deficit quickly and cruised to another blowout win. Bryce Petty threw three touchdown passes and ran for two more scores to lead his team to a 63-34 win as a 27.5-point ‘chalk.’

Playing without one of his top receivers, his two best RBs and a starting offensive tackle, Petty completed 17-of-31 passes for 335 yards without throwing an interception. Shock Linwood rushed for a career-high 189 yards and one TD on 29 carries, while Devin Chafin rushed 11 times for 100 yards and two scores.

Levi Norwood brought down a team-high seven receptions for 156 yards and two TDs. Antwan Goodley had four catches for 101 yards and one TD.

Oklahoma St. (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) has won six in a row since suffering its only loss at West Va. on Sept. 28. In its last five games, Mike Gundy’s team has won by 14 points or more and covered the number each time.

OSU is off a 38-13 win at Texas as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys ended the Longhorns’ six-game winning streak in large part thanks to a defense that intercepted Case McCoy three times, including a 43-yard pick-six from Justin Gilbert with 18 seconds remaining in the second quarter.

Clint Chelf threw two touchdown passes and also ran for a pair of scores. Gilbert had a second interception in addition to the crucial pick-six that basically put the game away before intermission.

Oklahoma St. hasn’t been as explosive offensively this year, but the Cowboys are still 13th in the nation in scoring with a 40.4 points-per-game average. OSU averaged 45.7, 48.7 and 44.2 PPG over the previous three seasons.

But the fact that the offense isn’t quite producing at such a frenetic pace doesn’t mean the 2013 Cowboys have taken a step backwards. That’s because the defense is vastly improved. After allowing 28.2 PPG in 2012, Oklahoma St. is giving up just 19.0 PPG this year, which ranks 15th in America.

The improved OSU ‘D’ will have its hands full Saturday night, however. Baylor is No.1 in the nation in total offense (686.2 YPG) and scoring (61.2 PPG).

Petty hasn’t missed a beat even though WR Tevin Reese was lost for the rest of the regular season in a 41-12 win over Oklahoma two weeks ago. Also, RB Lache Seastrunk left the OU game and didn’t play against Texas Tech.

Reese has 33 catches for 824 yards and eight TDs, while Seastrunk has run for a team-high 88 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 8.7 YPC. Seastrunk remains a question mark due to a strained groin. On the bright side for the Bears, RB Glasco Martin (five TDs) has been cleared to return.

Petty has been putting up Heisman-like numbers all season. He has completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 3,002 yards with an incredible 24/1 TD-INT ratio. Petty has rushed for 10 TDs. Goodley has brought down a team-high 49 receptions for 1,005 yards and 11 TDs.

The ‘over’ is 6-2-1 for Baylor, 1-1 in its road assignments. The Bears have had four totals in the 70s and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1-1 in those spots. They had one total in the 80s and that was last week (84) when the ‘over’ hit in their win over the Red Raiders that had 97 combined points.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for the Cowboys, 4-1 in their home games. This is the highest total OSU has seen this season. The previous highest was 69 ½ in a 52-34 win at Texas Tech that saw ‘over’ backers cash an easy winner.

During Briles’s tenure, Baylor owns a 3-4 spread record in seven games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, Oklahoma St. has posted a 5-7-2 ATS mark in 14 games as a home underdog on Gundy’s watch.

ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 01:04 AM

Saturday's Top Action

November 22, 2013

BAYLOR BEARS (9-0) at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (9-1) Line & Total: Baylor -9.5 & 79.5
Opening Line & Total: Bears -10 & 80

Unbeaten No. 3 Baylor looks to remain in the national title race Saturday night as it travels to Stillwater to take on No. 11 Oklahoma State in a game with huge implications for the Big 12 title.

In their matchup last season, the Bears were able to pull out a tough victory, defeating the Cowboys 41-34. However, this is a very different Baylor offense. In at quarterback is Bryce Petty, who has thrown for 2,992 yards and 24 touchdowns, while only tossing one interception all season. Petty is the leader of a Bears offense that has 34 scoring plays of at least 25 yards. In last Saturday’s 63-34 victory over Texas Tech, freshman RB Shock Linwood filled in for Lache Seastrunk (groin injury, doubtful to play Saturday), and had a terrific game with 187 rushing yards and one touchdown, showcasing electric speed. The Bears offense has been a juggernaut this season, leading the nation with 61.2 PPG and scoring at least 35 points in every game. However, they haven't won in Stillwater since 1939 and will be going up against an Oklahoma State team that is very confident after a big 38-13 road victory in Austin last week. Quarterback Clint Chelf was huge in the win over Texas, finishing the game with 292 total yards (197 passing) and four touchdowns. His touchdown pass to Tracy Moore put the Cowboys up 21-10 with a minute to go in the first half, and then cornerback Justin Gilbert took an interception 43 yards for a touchdown to give the Cowboys a commanding 18-point lead at halftime. The Bears are 8-0 ATS in the past two seasons versus teams averaging at least 34.0 PPG, but OSU is 9-1 ATS coming off a Big 12 win in this same timeframe.

Baylor not only leads FBS in scoring (61.2 PPG), but also ranks third in passing offense (384.4 YPG) and ninth in rushing offense (300.3 YPG). Junior QB Bryce Petty has been the man all season, throwing at least two touchdown passes in every game. His favorite target is WR Antwan Goodley (48 catches, 1,075 yards, 11 TD). While he is not the tallest pass catcher at 5-foot-10, he is a strong receiver at 220 pounds and has game-breaking ability with one catch of at least 25 yards in every single game this season. Senior WR Tevin Reese is out due to a season-ending wrist injury, but Goodley has continued to play well while seeing more double teams. Under head coach Art Briles, the Bears have produced one of the best offenses in all of the country, but now they have a defense that is able to hold up its end of the bargain. The Bears rank 7th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 17.4 PPG. They have been led by S Ahmad Dixon, but CB K.J. Morton has also become a key player on defense. The senior had his first interception of the season last week against Texas Tech, but is huge against the run, tallying 41 tackles this year. The Bears defense, which has forced 20 turnovers this year, will face its toughest test of the season, as OSU QB Clint Chelf has continued to improve throughout the season.

Chelf has thrown for 1,222 yards, 11 TD and 5 INT, but he could be without top WR Josh Stewart (40 catches, 510 yards, 2 TD) who has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. Chelf has also rushed for 325 yards and five touchdowns this year, and has been especially effective on the ground recently, rushing for at least 85 yards in three of the past four games. RB Desmond Roland (565 rush yards, 10 TD) has been the Cowboys' leading rusher this season, but has struggled in the past two games with just 103 yards on 35 carries (2.9 YPC). Roland must have a great game rushing the ball to help the defense out in stopping the Bears' potent offense. Oklahoma State’s defense has been very opportunistic this season with 26 takeaways, and CB Justin Gilbert (2 INT last week) is the key. He will mostly be covering Goodley in what should be an entertaining matchup. Both of these offenses are able to put up serious points, but look for Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy to really emphasize the rushing attack, trying to chew up clock and keep Petty and the Bears offense off the field.

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (8-2) at LSU TIGERS (7-3) Line & Total: LSU -4.5 & 74
Opening Line & Total: Tigers -3.5 & 73

No. 9 Texas A&M looks to stay in contention for a potential BCS bowl game as it travels to Baton Rouge to take on No. 18 LSU on Saturday night.

Last season, these two teams squared off in College Station as LSU held on for the 24-19 victory. The Tigers did a great job of slowing down Aggies star QB Johnny Manziel, intercepting him three times while forcing five total turnovers. The Aggies were up in that game 12-0, before the LSU defense got rolling and RB Jeremy Hill started dominating the game, finishing with 127 yards. For Texas A&M, they will need to get another great game out of Manziel, who has been even better this season than in his Heisman campaign as a freshman. Manziel (3,313 pass yards, 31 TD) has become a much better pocket passer, and has continued to have better command of the offense this season under coach Kevin Sumlin. While the offense has been terrific, the defense has really struggled this season, allowing 30.9 PPG (88th in FBS). Sumlin is 22-6 Over (79%) coming off a home win, and that streak should continue as the Tigers' offense is much better this season. There may be no more improved quarterback in the country than QB Zach Mettenberger (2,733 pass yards, 20 TD, 7 INT). Mettenberger is your prototypical quarterback, standing at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. He has always had a big arm, but has become much more accurate, seeing his percentage go from 58.8 percent last season, to 65.7 percent this year. The mad scientist Les Miles, has had a lot of great moments at LSU, but hasn’t had great success when playing at home as a favorite by less than seven points (1-9 ATS). But Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in the past three seasons on the road where the total is at least 63 points. If the Tigers are going to avoid their first four-loss regular season since 2008, the defense is going to have to play well.

Texas A&M comes into the game ranked 5th in the nation in scoring (49.2 PPG) and 6th in passing yards (379.2 YPG). QB Johnny Manziel has been great all season, but the emergence of sophomore WR Mike Evans (57 catches, 1,263 yards, 12 TD) has helped take the Aggies to the next level. At 6-foot-5, Evans has the ability to go up and catch the ball in traffic, something he has done multiple times this season for Manziel. He is a very good route runner as well, and is an absolute nightmare to cover, forcing defenses to double and sometimes triple-team him. This has helped senior RB Ben Malena (98 carries, 476 yards, 9 TD) have the opportunities to be the home-run threat that he is. Head coach Kevin Sumlin can’t be upset with the performance of his offense, but the defense has been a big reason why the Aggies are just 2-4 in conference play. In SEC action, the unit has surrendered 38.3 PPG and 502.2 total YPG, and it gave up 94 total points in losses to Auburn and Alabama. The best player on the unit is junior DB Howard Matthews, who has 73 tackles and three interceptions. Matthews will play a big role in this game, as he is going to be matched up against one of the best receiving duos in the country.

LSU WRs Odell Beckham (51 catches, 1,051 yards, 8 TD) and Jarvis Landry (63 catches, 972 yards, 8 TD) have both had huge seasons. The junior Beckham has five games with at least 100 receiving yards, and has the speed to get behind the defense, making him a threat to take it the distance anytime he touches the ball. The Tigers have been known for terrific defense, but their offense ranks 21st in the country this season with 38.0 PPG. With the vaunted passing attack of the Tigers, this has opened up things on the ground for RB Jeremy Hill. On the season, Hill has rushed for 964 yards and 13 touchdowns, while averaging 6.8 yards per carry. He is a power back that has the ability to run the defender over, while also possessing good enough speed to run away from the defense. The LSU defense gives up an average of 23.5 PPG, which ranks 38th in the nation. The unit has had some struggles this season, but appears to have found a new star in the secondary in freshman CB Tre’Davious White, who has 41 tackles on the season. He has the ability to run with any receiver, but he will also make plays against the run. White teams up with Jalen Mills to form a secondary with big potential, but not a lot of size. The Tigers are going to have problems stopping Evans, and will have to double-team him with safeties over the top.

MISSOURI TIGERS (9-1) at OLE MISS REBELS (7-3) Line & Total: Missouri -2.5 & 58.5
Opening Line & Total: Tigers -3 & 58

No. 8 Missouri faces a tough road test in its quest to reach the SEC title game as it visits No. 24 Ole Miss on Saturday night.

The Tigers get a welcome addition to their offense this week as QB James Franklin looks like he’ll return after missing the past four games with a shoulder injury. Officially listed as questionable, he’s expected to start. Missouri’s only loss came without him to South Carolina, though they rebounded with dominant SU and ATS wins against Tennessee and Kentucky. Overall, the Tigers are 8-2 ATS this season and a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) on the road. Since a three-point loss to Texas A&M, the Rebels have reeled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS). They are 6-4 ATS this season with a 4-2 ATS mark at home. Last weekend, they covered a 28-point spread with a 51-21 win against Troy. These two teams have met only twice in recent memory, in 2006 and 2007. Missouri won both games SU and ATS. The Tigers are 19-9 ATS (68%) on the road coming off a double-digit conference win under head coach Gary Pinkel, but Ole Miss is 14-4 ATS (78%) in games played on turf in the past two seasons.

Missouri QB James Franklin was amid a tremendous season before he got hurt, completing 67.7% of his passes for 14 TD and only 3 INT. In three games before getting hurt, he threw eight touchdowns and no picks. Franklin also brings a great deal of athleticism to the table, running for 290 yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 TD. The Tigers receiving corps is deep as three players—L’Damian Washington, Dorial Green-Beckham and Marcus Lucas—all have more than 500 receiving yards. Washington and Green-Beckham are the most dangerous of the three, each corralling nine touchdowns through the air. RB Henry Josey is Missouri’s main weapon on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC for 760 yards and a whopping 10 TD. But don’t forget about RBs Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy, who have 544 and 485 rushing yards, respectively. Murphy has seven rushing touchdowns as part of this high-power offense that averages 41.3 PPG thanks to scoring 26 touchdowns on the ground thus far. The defense isn’t too shabby either, yielding 20.2 PPG, led by a fierce front seven that gives up a pithy 3.3 YPC.

Rebels QB Bo Wallace has been among the most productive throwers in the nation this year, completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,664 yards and 17 TD while only tossing five picks. He’s completed more than 70% of his passes over his past three games, throwing for 8 TD and 2 INT. Wallace is less of a threat on the ground, averaging only 2.3 YPC, but he does have four rushing scores. RB Jeff Scott (488 rush yards, 7.6 YPC, 2 TD), I’Tavius Mathers (429 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 2 TD) and Jaylen Walton (391 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 6 TD) take care of most of the work on the ground. Wallace’s favorite target has been WR Donte Montcrief, who has 44 catches for 686 yards and five touchdowns this year. He’s talented, but inconsistent. In his past six games, he has gained more than 100 yards three times, but fewer than 40 yards three times. The Ole Miss defense is giving up only 25.0 PPG this season, with opponents rushing for 4.1 YPC and completing 64.2% of their passes, which could mean an easy transition back to action for Franklin.

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (8-2) at UCLA BRUINS (8-2) Line & Total: Arizona -1.5 & 62.5
Opening Line & Total: Sun Devils -3 & 62

With a Pac-12 title game berth on the line, No. 19 Arizona State will travel to the Rose Bowl to take on No. 14 UCLA Saturday night.

The Sun Devils are 8-2 and have dropped only one game in the conference, to powerhouse Stanford. They have wins against USC and Washington already, so the Bruins are their final tough test as they have gone 5-5 ATS this year and 4-3 ATS in the Pac-12. Arizona State has lost two in a row ATS however, barely beating Utah 20-19 and just missing out on covering a 13.5-point spread with a 30-17 win against Oregon State last weekend. Since 1992, Arizona State is 8-21 ATS (28%) when playing a team with a winning percentage of higher than 75% like the Bruins. UCLA, meanwhile, has already lost to both Stanford and Oregon, and faces a tough end to the season with the Sun Devils and USC remaining on the schedule. The Bruins are an impressive 7-3 ATS this season, going 4-3 ATS in league action. They have covered twice in a row with an upset win against Arizona and then a 41-31 win against Washington last Friday. With these two offenses averaging nearly 80 PPG combined, a shootout appears likely and could be reminiscent of last season, when the Bruins (6.5-point underdogs) eked out a 45-43 victory on the road on a last-second field goal. UCLA won and covered the last meeting in L.A., winning by one point as an 8.5-point home underdog in 2011.
Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly is a workhorse under center, completing 236-of-378 (62.4%) of his passes this season for 2,838 yards, 24 TD and 10 INT. He was brilliant in last year’s loss to the Bruins, throwing for 315 yards, 4 TD and just 1 INT. His top target is Jaelen Strong (59 catches, 834 yards, 5 TD), though he has a deep arsenal of options with D.J. Foster (523 rec. yards, 3 TD), Chris Coyle (370 rec. yards, 4 TD) and RB Marion Grice, who leads the team with 6 TD receptions. Grice has also been a menace on the ground, rumbling for 901 yards (5.2 YPC) and 14 rushing TD. Kelly can also carry the ball himself, rushing for 312 yards and 7 TD so far this year. Last year though, Grice and Kelly were both limited to less than 4.0 YPC by the Bruins defense. The Arizona State defense is yielding only 3.7 YPC this year, while the secondary has limited opponents to a 53.3% completion rate.

UCLA QB Brett Hundley is an NFL prospect for good reason, completing 68% of his passes this year for 2,384 yards, 20 TD and 8 INT. He was similar to Kelly in last year’s meeting, throwing for 274 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT. He is even more of a threat than Kelly on the ground though, rushing for a team-high 502 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Joining Hundley on the ground is a deep stable of ball carriers, as four other Bruins have at least three rushing touchdowns and 175 yards on the ground. Paul Perkins and Jordon James lead that crew with 476 and 471 rushing yards, respectively, while Myles Jack—who is also a linebacker—is a dangerous red zone threat, scoring four touchdowns last week versus Washington. The biggest weapon in UCLA’s receiving corps is WR Shaquelle Evans, who leads the team with 524 receiving yards on an impressive 14.6 yards per catch, hauling in a team-high seven touchdowns. The Bruins pass defense has struggled this season, allowing foes to complete 62.0% of their passes, while the line has been better, giving up a pedestrian 3.9 YPC.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 10:26 AM


Saturday, November 23

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

The Citadel Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers (-40.5, 69.5)

Tajh Boyd’s services might not be required long but the Clemson quarterback plans to play when the No. 6 Tigers host The Citadel on Saturday. Boyd left the Nov. 14 victory over Georgia Tech with a collarbone injury and the senior who is three touchdown passes shy of 100 has pronounced himself fit to play in the final home game of his standout career. The FCS Bulldogs have won three straight games and last beat Clemson in 1931.

The Bulldogs run the ball a lot in their triple-option attack and average 282.1 on the ground with quarterback Ben Dupree (939 yards, 18 touchdowns) and running back Darien Robinson (921 and seven) closing in on 1,000-yard seasons. The passing game is virtually non-existent at an average of 91.4 yards and nobody on the roster has even 200 receiving yards.

LINE: Clemson comes in as a 40.5-point favorite, with the total at 69.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 47 percent chance of rain.


* Bulldogs are 2-3 on the road.
* Over is 7-3 in Tigers' last 10 games.
* Clemson is 5-5 ATS.

Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats (+7, 41.5)

Michigan State's Aaron Burbridge is healthy but it appears he’ll have to earn his way back into the rotation of what has become a deep group of wide receivers. Burbridge was on the preseason Biletnikoff Award watch list but got off to a slow start and then a hamstring injury Oct. 19 put him on the shelf the last three games. Wide receivers Bennie Fowler and Tony Lippett have stepped up their production and contributed to the winning streak.

A closer look at the six-game losing streak shows that the Wildcats have dropped two contests in overtime and two others by three points. They still have a shot at becoming bowl eligible for a seventh straight season, but need to start with a mistake-free game against the Spartans. Northwestern has been pretty good at taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes, leading the Big Ten in forcing turnovers (22).

LINE: The Spartans opened -7.5, but the line has been bet down a half-point. The total has held at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 19 mph.


* Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.
* Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
* Road team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (-5, 54)

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight was solid in relief of Bell (undisclosed injury) last week while sophomore Kendal Thompson saw his first action late in the 48-10 win against Iowa State. Knight, who started the first two games of the season, had 123 rushing yards in the win. The Sooners are second in the Big 12 with 236.4 rushing yards and are ranked No. 13 nationally in total defense, allowing 326.5 yards.

The Wildcats are averaging 39.5 points and are plus-6 in turnovers during their win streak. Quarterbacks Jake Waters (111-of-183 for 1,690 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions) and Daniel Sams (team-high 784 rushing yards and 11 TDs) have both appeared in all 10 games. Kansas State will likely be without senior safety Ty Zimmerman (ankle), who missed the last two games last season with a similar injury.
LINE: The Wildcats are 5-point faves after opening as low as -3. The total has dropped a half-point to 54.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 12 mph.


* Sooners are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win.
* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Over is 5-1 in Oklahoma's last six November games.

Memphis Tigers at Louisville Cardinals (-23.5, 43)

Among a handful of standout defenders for coach Justin Fuente is cornerback Bobby McCain, who had three interceptions against South Florida to tie a school record and set the AAC mark. Junior defensive lineman Martin Ifedi added a pair of sacks and needs just two more to tie the team's all-time career mark of 21. The Tigers' six losses have come by an average of 8.5 points.

Mentioned in Heisman Award conversations earlier in the year, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's season has plateaued a bit. He has just one touchdown and one interception in his last two games, during which the junior has averaged 245.5 passing yards, and had his string of 21 straight games with a touchdown pass snapped in the win over Houston.

LINE: Louisville opened as a 24.5-point favorite, but the line has dropped by one. The total is currently 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 13 mph.


* Tigers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 November games.
* Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Under is 7-2 in Memphis' last nine games.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-34.5, 70)

The Chanticleers average 45.5 points and 512.5 yards and have committed just nine turnovers (six interceptions, three fumbles). Lorenzo Taliaferro is one of the top backs at the FCS level and has rushed for 1,466 yards and 23 touchdowns, while quarterback Alex Ross has thrown for 2,282 yards and 17 touchdowns. Defensively, Coastal Carolina allows 25.5 points and 417.1 yards and is led by linebacker Quinn Backus (108 tackles, three interceptions).

Shon Carson was terrific with a career-best 102 rushing yards against Florida last Saturday and is averaging 4.6 yards on 47 carries. Quarterback Connor Shaw has 19 TD passes against just one interception. Defensive end Kelcy Quarles has posted a team-best seven sacks while the more heralded Jadeveon Clowney has just two sacks and 8.5 tackles for losses after receiving preseason hype as the rare defensive Heisman Trophy candidate.

LINE: South Carolina is a 34.5-point fave with the total set at 70.
WEATHER: Rain is in the forecast with temperatures in the high-60s.


* Chanticleers are 4-1 on the road.
* Gamecocks are 4-6 ATS.
* Over is 4-2 in South Carolina's last six games.

Chattanooga Mocs at Alabama Crimson Tide (-49, 52.5)

Quarterback Jacob Huesman is a multipurpose threat, passing for 16 touchdowns against five interceptions and adding 894 rushing yards and nine scores. Keon Williams (687 yards) hopes to return from a three-game absence due to an ankle injury to further spruce up a ground game that averages 223.3 yards. The Moccasins have two standout defenders in linebacker Wes Dothard (81 tackles) and defensive end Davis Tull (nine sacks).

Quarterback AJ McCarron threw two of his five interceptions in the contest against Mississippi State but has mostly performed well with 2,228 yards and 21 touchdown passes. T.J. Yeldon rushed for a career-high 160 yards to raise his season output to 1,022 but also coughed up a fumble against the Bulldogs while Kenyan Drake (584 yards, 7.6 average) continues to be a strong complement. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in scoring defense (10.2).

LINE: The Crimson Tide are 49-point faves, with a total of 52.5 listed at some books.
WEATHER: There is a 39 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the length of the field at 11 mph.


* Mocs are 3-2 on the road.
* Crimson Tide are 6-4 ATS.
* Under is 1-3-1 in Alabama's last five games.

Idaho Vandals at Florida State Seminoles (-57, 68)

Receiver Dezmon Epps has been the bright spot of another dreary season for the Vandals. The junior has 66 receptions for 811 yards and is coming off a big performance against Old Dominion in which he accumulated a career-high 175 yards on nine receptions. Idaho is often outmatched defensively – allowing 45.7 points and 531.5 yards per game – but the unit has received solid play from defensive tackle QuayShawne Buckley, who has 12 tackles for loss.

The Seminoles are led by Winston but the defense has also been excellent, ranking third nationally in scoring defense (11.1) and fourth in total defense (271.4). Outside linebacker Telvin Smith has a team-leading 68 tackles and has recorded 7.5 stops for losses and cornerback Lamarcus Joyner has 51 tackles, five sacks, three forced fumbles and an interception.

LINE: The Seminoles are a whopping 57-point favorite after opening at -56. The total has dropped from 69.5 to 68.
WEATHER: There's a 22 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the length of the field at 7 mph.


* Vandals are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.
* Seminoles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on grass.
* Over is 8-0 in Florida State's last eight games following an ATS win.

Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-34.5, 81)

The Hoosiers need to win their final two games against Ohio State and Purdue to become bowl eligible. Indiana, which has scored a school single-season record 52 touchdowns, had scored 28-or-more points in 10 straight games before the streak came to a halt last week at chilly and rainy Wisconsin. Sophomore QB Nate Sudfeld has thrown for 2,281 yards and a Big Ten-best 19 touchdowns.

The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten and rank fourth nationally in rushing with an average of 315.1 yards and are coming off a season-best 441 yards on the ground in a 60-35 victory at Illinois last week. Senior RB Carlos Hyde has rushed for 821 yards and 11 touchdowns over the last five games and needs 53 more yards to hit the 1,000-yard mark for the season.

LINE: After opening as low as -31, the Buckeyes have been bet up to a 34.5-point fave. The total is set at 81.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 13 mph.


* Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last six November games.
* Buckeyes are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats (+20.5, 67.5)

Oregon's top six rushers on the season are all averaging at least 6.5 yards per carry and are led by Byron Marshall, who has 152 rushes for 991 yards and 14 scores. Quarterback Marcus Mariota could find his way to the Heisman Trophy ceremony next month, as his ratio of 25 touchdowns to zero interceptions is pretty eye-catching, not to mention his 477 rushing yards and nine scores.

The Wildcats have had a streaky year, winning their first three games followed by a two-game losing streak, a three-game winning streak and now another two-game skid. In addition to standout back Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona also can run the ball with quarterback B.J. Denker, whose 709 rushing yards are a Wildcats single-season record. On the defensive side of the ball, linebacker Scooby Wright leads the team with 70 tackles.

LINE: Oregon opened as a 17.5-point fave, but the line has since been bet up to 20.5. The total is up a half-point to 67.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with a 70 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms.


* Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
* Wildcats are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 November games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+16.5, 50)

To say that the Badgers ground game is clicking right now would be a woeful understatement. Three individual rushers topped 100 yards and the team amassed 554 yards on the ground - the second-highest total in team history - in the rout of the Hoosiers. The tandem of Melvin Gordon (1,306 yards) and James White (1,156) gives Wisconsin the status as the only FBS team with multiple players over the 1,000-yard mark.

The Gophers also have utilized the ground game for recent success, climbing to 20th in FBS play in rushing yards per game at 218.5 (Wisconsin is sixth at 307.9). David Cobb's emergence has been the catalyst, as the unheralded running back has recorded four straight 100-yard rushing efforts and has 405 total yards in his last two contests.

LINE: Wisconsin is a 16.5-point fave after opening at -14.5. The total is steady at 50.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with sunny skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 7 mph.


* Badgers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games.
* Gophers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 November games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Minnesota's last five games following a bye week.

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers (-4.5, 71)

The Aggies' offense has been unstoppable, topping 40 points in 13 consecutive games and going over 500 total yards in nine straight. The catalyst, of course, is reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel, who leads the nation in completion percentage (73), ranks second in total offense (3,924) and ranks third in passer efficiency (186.86).

The Tigers are far more balanced than the Aggies, if not nearly as explosive. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger (2,733 passing yards, 20 TDs) is nursing a sore ankle but is expected to play and needs 93 passing yards to pass Matt Mauck for third on LSU's single-season list. The defense had its share of struggles early in the season but has rounded into form - especially against the pass - and allows just 14.6 points per game at home.

LINE: LSU is installed as a 4.5-point fave, down from -4. The total is set at 71.
WEATHER: Persistent rain is expected with wind blowing across the length of the field at 12 mph.


* Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a bye week.
* Tigers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Over is 8-2 in LSU's last 10 games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 10:27 AM


Saturday, November 23

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action

New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs (-31.5, 66)

The Lobos' triple-option offense will be hard-pressed to make up for the loss of Gautsche and Carrier, who have rushed for 777 yards and 1,122 yards, respectively, to key the second-ranked attack in the nation in rushing average at 323.8 yards per game. The Lobos will likely have to rely more on Mitchem's stronger arm - a concern for Fresno State defensive coordinator Nick Toth.

The Bulldogs are off to their best start since 1989 as one of only six FBS teams still unbeaten this season. Fresno State can clinch the West Division of the MVC by beating the Lobos for the fourth year in a row. Expect Carr to again look for sophomore Davante Adams, who has been his favorite receiver this season with 91 catches for 967 yards and 15 touchdowns to lead the nation in scoring receptions.

LINE: Fresno State is a 31.5-point fave after opening -31. The total has risen one point to 66.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.


* Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Bulldogs are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Fresno State's last seven games following a bye week.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-31.5, 56)

A crippling loss to USC last week has left No. 12 Stanford reeling as they look to secure a berth in one of the major BCS bowls. That could mean a long Saturday afternoon for the California Golden Bears as they look to end their nine-game losing skid against a Cardinal team that will be out for points in the 116th edition of The Big Game. The Golden Bears have approached 200 rushing yards in consecutive games.

The Cardinal attack centers around senior running back Tyler Gaffney, who was sensational in defeat against USC with 158 rushing yards and a pair of scores. That marked his fifth consecutive 100-yard effort and he has scored on the ground in six straight games. More importantly, his 1,201 yards on the season leave him 194 shy of the single-season school record set in 2009 by Toby Gerhart, now a member of the Minnesota Vikings.

LINE: Stanford is favored by 31.5 after opening at -30.5. The total has held at 56.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under clear skies.

* Golden Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.
* Cardinal are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with losing records.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins (+2.5, 61.5)

With two touchdowns in the win over Oregon State, Marion Grice became the 15th player in the conference since 1978 to score at least 20 touchdowns in a season and is two shy of tying the school record of 22. Robert Nelson was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week after collecting two of the Sun Devils’ four interceptions against the Beavers, giving him six for the season.

Linebacker Myles Jack remained a two-way standout in the win, following up his 120-yard debut at running back in a Nov. 9 win against Washington with four rushing touchdowns against Washington to set a Bruins freshman record. In addition to becoming the 13th UCLA player to score at least four rushing TDs in a game, Jack added five tackles against the Huskies.

LINE: Arizona State is installed as a 2.5-point fave, with the total down a half-point to 61.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NE at 6 mph.


* Sun Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 November games.
* Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win.
* Over is 7-1 in UCLA's last November games.

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+2.5, 58)

Franklin, who was completing 67.7 percent of his passes before the injury, missed four starts with a sprained throwing shoulder. L'Damian Washington and Green-Beckham each have nine touchdown catches after Green-Beckham set a school record with four TDs against Kentucky. Michael Sam has a conference-best 10 sacks and the Tigers, who have forced a turnover in 40 straight games, lead the league with 17 interceptions.

The Rebels' starting corners - 5-9 Senquez Golson and 5-8 Mike Hilton - will have their hands full trying to slow Missouri's big receivers. Running back Jeff Scott (488 yards, two touchdowns) returned last week after missing three games because of a bone spur. Bo Wallace (2,664 passing yards and 232 rushing yards) ranks third in the SEC in total offense (289.6 yards per game) and has 17 passing touchdowns and four on the ground.

LINE: Missouri opened as a 3-point fave, but the line has been bet down a half-point. The total is set at 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the N at 7 mph.


* Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Rebels are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 November games.
* Over is 8-2 in Mississippi's last 10 home games.

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (+9.5, 78)

Despite the absences of their top two running backs on the depth chart (Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin) as well as their second-leading receiver (Tevin Reese), the Bears still amassed 63 points and 675 total yards in last Saturday’s 63-34 win over Texas Tech. Baylor, which is averaging 300.3 yards rushing and 384.4 yards passing, could become the first FBS team ever to average over 300 yards in both categories.

One week after collecting the Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week award for his 100-yard kickoff return touchdown versus Kansas, Cowboys cornerback Justin Gilbert took home the league’s defensive award after intercepting two passes and returning one for another score against Texas. Gilbert is the conference’s all-time leader in kickoff return touchdowns with six and needs one more to tie the NCAA career record.

LINE: Baylor is a 9.5-point fave, down from a 10.5-point open. The total is holding at 78.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.


* Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight November games.
* Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+22.5, 54)

The Trojans intercepted two passes in the fourth quarter - including one by Dion Bailey at the USC 6-yard line with the game tied at 17 - while holding Stanford to a season low for points. Sophomore Cody Kessler (64.7 completion rate, 13 touchdowns, six interceptions) has done a solid job managing the offense while throwing only two picks in his last six games.

Freshman quarterback Sefo Liufau had a career day last week with 364 yards and three touchdowns against one of the worst defenses in the country, and was quick to credit Paul Richardson and Nelson Spruce. “Those two are just so good that it definitely makes things easier for me,'' Liafau said of the receiving tandem, which combined for 19 receptions and recorded 140 yards apiece.

LINE: USC is installed as a 22.5-point fave, with the total set at 54.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with partly cloudy skies.


* Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Colorado's last four games vs. teams with winning records.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 10:29 AM

Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Week 13 of the college football slate can be one of the toughest tasks for NCAAF bettors. Teams are chasing bowl berths, prepping for their season finales, or looking forward to forgetting about football for a while. That hasn’t slowed down the action at the sportsbooks, which have juggled the lines all week.

We talk with Mike Perry of about the biggest moves on the NCAAF Week 13 board:

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats – Open: -18.5, Move: -21.5

If you listened to Steve Merril in this week’s NCAAF Line Watch article, then hopefully you quickly got down on the Ducks below the key number of three touchdowns. It didn’t take long for the money to pour in on Oregon, forcing this line to jump three points in a matter of hours. Some markets are still dealing the Ducks below -21.

“Less than two hours after we had game open, sharp bets came on Oregon,” Perry tells Covers. “The Ducks are now on the inside track to being the top seed from the Pac-12. Wildcats are going the other way, failing to cover in three straight games, including home loss to Washington State. So far, 89 percent of the cash is on the Ducks.”

Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies – Open: -7, Move: -10

This MWC matchup has been bumped from one key number to the next with 65 percent of action sitting on the home side Saturday. The wagering has balanced out a bit since moving to USU -10.

“Tuesday, we got a sharp play on the Aggies -7, so moved to -7.5,” says Perry. “Two out of every three dollars was still backing Utah State -9, so moved to -10 on Wednesday.”

UMass Minutemen at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open: -9.5, Move: -12.5

Sharp money isn’t behind this massive move. Instead, public money is piling up on the home favorite with 91 percent of the money on CMU. Perry believes the one-sided action has to do with health of UMass QB A.J. Doyle.

“No sharp action on this game, just a real big decision,” says Perry. “On Wednesday we moved from -9 to -10 and on Thursday moved to -12.5. Doyle is a bit dinged up. He's currently listed as probable with a shoulder injury.”

Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers – Open: +14.5, Move: +17

This Big Ten battle has had its spread move nearly three points with heavy action on the road favorite Saturday. Wisconsin has drawn 71 percent of the public action heading into the weekend. Minnesota will be without top receiver Derrick Engel.

“Monday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Wisconsin, buying half a point to -14. Later that day, we moved Wisky to -16,” says Perry. “Heavy majority of public money on Wisconsin, so on Wednesday we moved to -17. The Badgers are an absolute covering machine this season, posting a 9-0-1 ATS record.”

Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins – Open: +3, Move: +1.5

Wiseguys moved this slim Pac-12 spread off a field goal with money on the home underdog. Some books are still dealing UCLA around +2.5.

“Tuesday morning, we got a wiseguy play on Bruins +3, so moved to 1.5,”says Perry. “Sixty-six percent of the cash is backing UCLA.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 10:29 AM

NCAAF Top 4: Teams in need of style points

College football's silly season is upon us, when teams jockeying for better position in the BCS standings take extreme measures to make that happen.

With strength of schedule such a vital part of the BCS calculations - and the one thing teams can't control - those in the mix for the national title game or some other marquee BCS matchup will often look to score as many points as possible in order to bolster their resumes. The result: Blowouts - and "over" plays - in abundance.

Here are four teams expected to bombard the scoreboard over the final two weeks of the season:

Ohio State Buckeyes (BCS rank: 3)

According to the BCS standings, the Buckeyes are - at least for the time being - the next team in line if either Alabama or Florida State drop one of their final two games. That's not happening this week - the Crimson Tide (vs. Chattanooga) and Seminoles (vs. Idaho) are expected to trample their respective opponents, making the Buckeyes' task even more daunting. They'll need one-sided victories over Indiana and Michigan, coupled with a loss by either of the top-two teams in the final week, to have any hope of playing for the national championship.

The Buckeyes are currently 34.5-point home faves with a total of 82.5.

Baylor Bears (BCS rank: 4)

College football's most prolific team has been hamstrung by what is perceived to be a weak schedule in comparison to the other title contenders. And while that may be true, Baylor shouldn't be overlooked over its final three games. This team can score like few in the history of football and if it can find a way to fill the endzone against nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas, that may be enough - when combined with a Alabama or Florida State loss - to move the Bears past Ohio State and into a spot in the championship game.

The Bears are 9.5-point road faves at Okie State. The total is currently 78.

Oregon Ducks (BCS rank: 5)

The Ducks were on the fast-track to a major rankings showdown with the Seminoles before dropping a stunner to Stanford two weeks ago. That all but derailed any chance Oregon had at challenging for the national championship - but not all hope is lost. The Ducks close the season with home games against Arizona and Oregon State - tougher opponents than some of the competition, but not so tough that they'll prevent Oregon from scoring points by the boatload if it sees fit. They may be a title longshot, but expect the Ducks to ramp up the offensive pressure nonetheless.

The Ducks are 20.5-point road faves at Arizona with a total of 67.5.

Stanford Cardinal (BCS rank: 9)

A loss to USC severely damaged the Cardinal's hopes of landing a spot in one of the top three BCS bowl games. Not only does it have some work to do in order to return to that perch - it will likely need a pair of blowout wins to pass No. 6 Auburn (though No. 7 Clemson may be in trouble, with a game against Alabama to close out the season.) Stanford should have no trouble handling California this weekend, but the season finale against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is no gimme - and unfortunately for the Cardinal, it needs to be.

Stanford is currently a 31.5-point home fave with Cal in town. The total is 56.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32230 Followers:37
11/23/2013 10:30 AM


Saturday, November 23

Wisconsin at Minnesota: What bettors need to know

Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+16.5, 49.5)

There will be plenty on the line in the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe on Saturday when Wisconsin invades No. 23 Minnesota in a pivotal affair between ranked Big Ten rivals. The 17th-ranked Badgers are coming off a 51-3 dismantling of Indiana, their fifth straight win since a narrow loss at No. 3 Ohio State. Wisconsin's chances of catching the Buckeyes in the Leaders Division are extremely small, but coach Gary Andersen's team hopes it can crawl into the at-large BCS picture with a solid finish.

The Gophers are on a four-game winning streak and will be well-rested from a 24-10 triumph over Penn State on Nov. 9. They still have a chance to claim the top spot in the Legends Division if leader Michigan State stumbles at Northwestern before hosting Minnesota next week. The Gophers own a slim 58-56-8 advantage in the most-played FBS rivalry, but the Badgers have won nine consecutive meetings.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Wisconsin opened -15.5 and is now -16.5. The total opened at 50.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with clear skies.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten): To say that the Badgers ground game is clicking right now would be a woeful understatement. Three individual rushers topped 100 yards and the team amassed 554 yards on the ground - the second-highest total in team history - in the rout of the Hoosiers. The tandem of Melvin Gordon (1,306 yards) and James White (1,156) gives Wisconsin the status as the only FBS team with multiple players over the 1,000-yard mark.

ABOUT MINNESOTA (8-2, 4-2 Big Ten): The Gophers also have utilized the ground game for recent success, climbing to 20th in FBS play in rushing yards per game at 218.5 (Wisconsin is sixth at 307.9). David Cobb's emergence has been the catalyst, as the unheralded running back has recorded four straight 100-yard rushing efforts and has 405 total yards in his last two contests. Cobb and company will meet their match in a Badgers team that is seventh in FBS in rushing defense (98.8).


* Over is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Badgers last six games overall.


1. Gordon is averaging 8.51 yards per carry in his career.

2. Gophers QB Philip Nelson has completed 63 percent of his passes while throwing for seven touchdowns with no interceptions during the four-game winning streak.

3. Wisconsin would need to be ranked in the top 14 in the BCS standings to gain an at-large berth. It enters Saturday's play 19th.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: