cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/18/2013 05:22 PM

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 12

November 18, 2013

Week 12 of the 2013 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the BCS rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1: Alabama (W-L vs. Mississippi State 20-7)
It was a sluggish win, but it was a win no less for Bama, which has its sights set on the Iron Bowl in two weeks.

2: Florida State (W-W vs. Syracuse 59-3)
A second straight 59-3 victory has many asking if FSU is the best team in America.

3: Ohio State (W-L vs. Illinois 60-35)
It's not often you see the Buckeyes score 60 and fail to cover, especially on the road.

4: Stanford (L-L vs. USC 20-17)
For as quickly as the Cardinal took the edge in the Pac-12 North, they gave it right back.

5: Baylor (W-W vs. Texas Tech 63-24)
Baylor is creeping up on Ohio State in the BCS, and it'll be a fight to the finish to see who gets into the title game if Bama or FSU falter.

6: Oregon (W-L vs. Utah 44-21)
The Ducks are back on the Rose Bowl trail after Stanford was beaten for the second time last week.

7: Auburn (W-W vs. Georgia 43-38)
If the Tigers do win the SEC, this game will be called the miracle of all miracles. A last second Hail Mary TD kept Auburn's title dreams alive and stole a cover and a win from UGA.

8: Clemson (W-W vs. Georgia Tech 55-31)
QB Tajh Boyd was banged up, but he closed out his time at Memorial Stadium with a bang against G-Tech.

9: Missouri (Bye)
Mizzou has two tough games left just to get to the SEC Championship Game.

10: South Carolina (W-L vs. Florida 19-14)
Head Coach Steve Spurrier made it so his former mates probably aren't going bowling this year.

11: Texas A&M (Bye)
One of the two teams to beat the Aggies last year are on tap this week, as they take the trip to the Bayou.

12: Oklahoma State (W-W vs. Texas 38-13)
The Okie State/Baylor game is feeling like the Big XII Championship Game now.

13: UCLA (W-W vs. Washington 41-31)
Each of UCLA's first five touchdowns were scored by defensive players.

14: Fresno State (Bye)
It would have helped Fresno State a ton had UCF actually lost, but nearly losing to Temple helped the cause as well.

15: Northern Illinois (W-W vs. Ball State 48-27)
The 21-point win will look sexy, but anyone who watched NIU play knows that Ball State had every shot to win that game.

16: Michigan State (W-W vs. Nebraska 41-28)
Barring an epic collapse, the Spartans are going to the Big Ten Championship Game.

17: UCF (W-L vs. Temple 39-36)
The Knights got a one-handed catch to beat Temple on the road and make it so they have to win two out of three to win the AAC.

18: Oklahoma (W-W vs. Iowa State 48-10)
The Cyclones never had a chance, especially in the second half when OU dominated 38-0.

19: Arizona State (W-W vs. Oregon State 30-17)
Beating UCLA might lock up the Pac-12 South this week.

20: Louisville (W-L vs. Houston 20-13)
The Cards rank second in the land in total defense, rushing defense, pass defense, and scoring defense, and they have the #1 pick in the NFL Draft at quarterback in all likelihood. Yet they still aren't going to the BCS without a miracle.

21: LSU (Bye)
The Bayou Bengals took a week off to get ready for A&M in what might amount to be the game that determines who goes to the Cotton Bowl.

22: Wisconsin (W-W vs. Indiana 51-3)
That's four straight seasons dropping at least 50 on the Hoosiers.

23: Miami (L-L vs. Duke 48-30)
It's tough to tell who fell harder faster, Miami or Texas Tech.

24: Texas (L-L vs. Oklahoma State 38-13)
Next week's game against Texas Tech is probably Head Coach Mack Brown's final home game.

25: Georgia (L-L vs. Auburn 43-38)
The Bulldogs lost at the gun, marking three losses in five games for the Dawgs, who haven't covered a game since September 7th.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/19/2013 06:45 PM

College football odds: Week 13 opening line report

Practically every week in college football, there’s a major showdown in the Southeastern Conference. That’s certainly the case for Week 13, which is highlighted by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M traveling to Baton Rouge to battle LSU.

The Aggies (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS), coming off a bye, haven’t had trouble in the scoring department all season, scoring 41 points or more in all 10 games. And they’ve racked up huge totals the past few weeks, breaking 50 in each of their last three games while going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), including a 51-41 home victory Nov. 9 against Mississippi State – though they fell short of covering in that contest as 19.5-point favorites.

LSU (7-3, 4-5-1 ATS), also coming off a bye, got off to a strong 4-0 SU start this year, but the Tigers are just 3-3 SU (2-3-1 ATS) in their last six games and have failed to cover in their last three outings. That includes a 38-17 loss catching 14 points at top-ranked Alabama on Nov. 9.

Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, found the total on this game intriguing, as he expects a shootout in the bayou.

“This is another great game to watch,” Korner said. “The total we sent out is 78, so you know this is going to be an up-and-down game. What Texas A&M game isn't?”

As for the spread, Korner had to give the nod to the host.

“Our range of numbers went from LSU pick to -4.5, and we settled on LSU -3. Of course, Texas A&M has a great chance of winning this game straight up, but playing at LSU this late in the year is a tough challenge for any team – even one led by Johnny Football. We think this line will hold close to our opener by kickoff. A&M has a good, steady flow of cash that has followed them all year.”

Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5) at UCLA Bruins

ASU (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) heads to the West Coast toting a five-game SU win streak (3-2 SU), and the Sun Devils have gotten it done in blowout fashion and grind-it-out fashion. In wins over Colorado, Washington and at Washington State, ASU rang up 54, 53 and 55 points respectively; the past two weeks, the Sun Devils fended off host Utah 20-19 laying seven points and bested visiting Oregon State 30-17, barely failing to cash as a 13.5-point chalk.

It appears UCLA (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) has gotten over brutal back-to-back road trips. Since losing 24-10 at Stanford and 42-14 at Oregon, the Bruins have won three in a row, covering their last two while averaging 39 ppg in that stretch, including a 41-31 home win over Washington.

“This is a very good game, and the line is representative of how unpredictable this game is,” Korner said. "Our range of numbers went from UCLA -3 to ASU -2. After discussing the teams overall strengths and recent play, we made ASU the road favorite. We're going to open this game at ASU -1.5 and see where
that takes us. We see the offshores had play on ASU, and that ASU was up to -3. But we're not going that high here in Nevada with the large Los Angeles following we have in our sportsbooks on the weekend.”

Baylor Bears (-11) at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Baylor (9-0 SU) aims to keep its name in the national championship conversation. If scoring and spread-covering ability were part of the BCS formula, the Bears would definitely be No. 1. They average a whopping 61.2 ppg, rolling to a 63-34 win over Texas Tech on Saturday laying 27.5 points at AT&T Stadium, and their 8-1 ATS record (4-0 last four) ranks third in the nation.

Oklahoma State (9-1 SU) is also no slouch at the betting window, with a 7-3 ATS mark (14th), and like Baylor, offense is a big part of the formula. The Cowboys have won six in a row SU and five in a row ATS, scoring 38 points or more four times in that stretch, including two games in the 50s.

“Nevada books continue to get trampled by Baylor each and every week,” Korner said. “We don't want to be light on this team. Our range of numbers went from Baylor -10 to -14. We saw the number diminish from -10.5 to -9.5 early Sunday morning, but we're not falling for that. We stuck a -11 as our opener and fully expected that weak -9.5 to jump back up in no time.”

Northern Illinois Huskies (-2.5) at Toledo Rockets

Northern Illinois (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) is looking to become a BCS bowl buster for the second straight year. The Huskies had their hands full at home last week against Ball State, but pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 48-27 win and cover as an 8.5-point favorite. NIU has cashed four in a row and six of its last seven.

Toledo (7-3 SU) has been a good bet this season, with a 7-2-1 ATS mark (10th nationally), and the Rockets’ scoring production has been strong over the past few weeks. Toledo has won five in a row SU (4-1 ATS), scoring 45 points or more in four of those games, including a 51-41 home win over Buffalo as a 5.5-point chalk last week.

“This game will be an excellent one, with two very good teams going at it,” Korner said. “Apparently, it was a no-brainer, as everyone had Northern Illinois -2.5 -- all five of our oddsmakers and the offshores. Nothing to see here, keep it moving.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/19/2013 06:46 PM


Week 13

Kent State at Ohio
The Golden Flashes look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games on the road against the Bobcats. Kent State is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Ohio favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.


Game 101-102: Buffalo at Miami (OH) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 89.738; Miami (OH) 57.283
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 32 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 24; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-24); N/A

Game 103-104: Kent State at Ohio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 70.471; Ohio 73.226
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 3; 66
Vegas Line: Ohio by 6 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+6 1/2); N/A

Long Sheet

Week 13

Tuesday, November 19


BUFFALO (7 - 3) at MIAMI OHIO (0 - 10) - 11/19/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


KENT ST (3 - 8) at OHIO U (6 - 4) - 11/19/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO U is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 2-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-1 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Tuesday's games

Buffalo won three of last five games with Miami; favoritex covered four of the five games. Bulls got spanked 41-31 at Toledo last week, snapping their 7-game win streak, with every win by 20+ points. 0-10 Miami lost its last three games by combined score of 110-25; they're 1-2-1 as home underdogs this year, losing home games by 14-12-7-42 points. Buffalo has road wins by 33-0/41-21 scores, but also lost at Ohio State/Baylor, before last week's loss at Toledo. Miami allowed 300 rushing yards LW to a 3-8 Kent State team.

Ohio lost 30-3/49-0 the last two Tuesdays, after winning six of previous seven games; Bobcats lost three of last four games with Kent, in a series where underdog is 7-4 vs spread. Ohio scored 23 or less points in all four of its losses, 27+ in its six wins, last three of which were by 25+ points. Kent had 300 rushing yards in win over 0-10 Miami last week; they will be first D-I team to finish their schedule this season. Ohio is 3-2 when a favorite this year, winning road games 43-3/56-28 scores. Kent allowed 14 or less points in its four wins, all against lesser teams.


Week 13

Trend Report

Tuesday, November 19

8:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Miami (Ohio) is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Buffalo
Miami (Ohio) is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

8:00 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kent State's last 8 games
Kent State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ohio's last 5 games when playing Kent State
Ohio is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kent State



Tuesday, November 19

Buffalo at Miami (Ohio): What bettors need to know

Buffalo Bulls at Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (+24.5, 48)

The Buffalo Bills will likely be playing for top spot in the Mid-American Conference's East Division next week when it tangles with Bowling Green. But first, the Bulls will need a strong showing against Miami (Ohio) as they visit the winless RedHawks on Tuesday night. Buffalo is coming off a wild 51-41 defeat at the hands of the Toledo Rockets last week, while Miami (Ohio) fell to 0-6 in the conference - and 0-10 overall - with a 24-6 loss at the hands of Kent State.

While Buffalo is a heavy favorite against a team that manages just over 220 yards of total offense per game, the Bulls are wise not to look past this game after falling behind 38-0 against Toledo, then watching their stunning second-half rally fall just short. Quarterback Joe Licata was one of the lone bright spots in that one with 497 passing yards and four touchdowns. The RedHawks are playing out the string, having scored just one touchdown in their last three games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: Buffalo enters as a 24.5-point favorite, with the total set at 48.
WEATHER: Temperatures will approach the freezing mark with clear skies.

ABOUT BUFFALO (7-3, 5-1 MAC): Licata has shown plenty of promise as a sophomore, passing for 2,235 yards and 20 touchdowns. Last game marked a career-best in yardage for the native of Williamsville, New York, and he has thrown just one interception in his previous six games. Senior running back Branden Oliver ground out 102 yards against the Rockets, extending his streak of triple-digit rushing games to six while scoring for the the eighth time in four games.

ABOUT MIAMI (OHIO) (0-10, 0-6): There aren't many positives to glean from the RedHawks' performance on either side of the ball, but things have looked particularly dire on offense. Miami (Ohio) is averaging fewer than 10 points per game, with senior quarterback Austin Boucher throwing for just 1,036 yards with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions. The team is averaging only 2.6 yards per carry on the season, with a paltry three touchdowns on the ground.


* Bulls are 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
* RedHawks are 6-15-1 ATS in their previous 22 games.
* Under is 9-3 in Buffalo's last 12 conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings at Miami (Ohio).



Tuesday, November 19

Kent State at Ohio: What bettors need to know

Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio Bobcats (-5.5, 49)

Having failed spectacularly in a spoiler role, the Ohio Bobcats will have to settle for a shot at third place in the Mid-American Conference's East Division as they entertain the Kent State Golden Flashes on Tuesday night. The Bobcats tangled with division co-leaders Buffalo and Bowling Green in consecutive weeks, and were promptly routed by a combined score of 79-3. Kent State halted a five-game losing skid last time out with a 24-6 triumph over Miami (Ohio).

Tuesday's game pits new blood against old guard as Ohio senior quarterback Tyler Tettleton duels Kent State freshman signal-caller Colin Reardon. Tettleton was limited to 93 passing yards and an interception in last week's 49-0 drubbing at the hands of the Falcons, while threw for 147 yards and ran for 30 and a score in the victory over the RedHawks. Kent State can finish no higher than fifth in the division, while the Bobcats will secure third place with a victory.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2
ODDS: Ohio is listed as a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will approach the freezing mark under clear skies.

ABOUT KENT STATE (3-8, 2-5 MAC): Reardon will conclude what has been an up-and-down season Tuesday, having thrown for 1,744 yards with 11 TDs and nine interceptions - five of which came in losses to Buffalo and Akron that preceded the win over Miami (Ohio). He has thrown just one touchdown pass in the last three games. Trayion Durham posted his second 100-yard rushing game of the season last time out, while scoring for the third consecutive game.

ABOUT OHIO (6-4, 3-3): Tettleton's final collegiate season has been trending in the wrong direction for several weeks now. He threw for 681 combined yards and seven scores in wins over Eastern Michigan and Miami (Ohio), but followed that up with 219 combined yards and zero scores in the losses to the Bulls and Falcons. Beau Blankenship leads the team with 644 rushing yards, but Ryan Boykin has more touchdowns on the ground (six).


* Golden Flashes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win.
* Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their previous 10 home games vs. teams with losing road records.
* Under is 5-1 in Kent State's last six conference games.
* Road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/19/2013 06:47 PM

Short Sheet

Tuesday, November 19

Buffalo at Miami, 8:00 ET
Buffalo: 10-2 UNDER after playing a conference game
Miami: 13-5 UNDER as an underdog

Kent State at Ohio, 8:00 ET
Kent State: 8-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival
Ohio: 3-11 ATS against conference opponents

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/19/2013 06:49 PM

Tuesday, November 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 8:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +24 500 POD # 4

Miami (Ohio) - Over 48 500 POD # 1

Kent State - 8:00 PM ET Ohio -6.5 500 POD # 2

Ohio - Over 51.5 500 POD # 3

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/20/2013 05:32 PM

Inside the Stats

November 20, 2013

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings…

7 Come 11

Game 11 of the college football season signals many things. For teams with six or more wins, it’s one step closer to a probable bowl bid. However, teams languishing below .500 are likely to be home for the holidays.

So it is, too, for Game 11 non-winners that ended the previous season with 7 or more wins who are playing today off two losses-exact. Our best advice for these teams is to bend over and kiss it goodbye, as these losers have a better chance of learning how to navigate the government health care website than enhancing their bowl chances.

That’s because these 7-plus game winners last year who enter Game 11 this year off two losses-exact with a .500 or less record are 18-38-1 ATS since 1980.

San Jose State will assume the role this week. And for what it’s worth, home teams are 8-23 ATS, including 2-14 ATS when they are allowing 26 or more PPG on the season.

While 7 and 11 are winning numbers in the first roll at a craps table, together they are losers on the college gridiron.

Last Home Games

With the 2013 college football season heading to the wire, one of our favorite handicapping ploys is now in play, mainly Last Home Games.

For some teams it’s a proud sendoff for seniors who have dedicated their career to success. For others it’s the final curtain on a disappointing season.

From our powerful database listed below are the teams that have met with the best and worst point-spread success in LHG’s (Last Home Games).

All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are most recent trends with a minimum of five occurrences. Enjoy.

Best LHG’s

Arkansas 6-0
Colorado 7-0
North Carolina State 5-0
Nevada 5-0-1
New Mexico 6-1
Rice 7-1
South Carolina 6-0
Stanford 5-1

Worst LHG’s

Buffalo 1-7
Clemson 1-6
Florida Atlantic 1-7
Idaho 1-5-1
Louisville 0-5
LSU 1-8
Miami, Fl. 1-5
Michigan 1-6-1
Missouri 0-6

In The Stats

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites in this condition.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 18-22 ATS overall this season, including 13-15 in CFB and 5-7 in the NFL.

This week’s plays would be against:

NCAAFB: Central Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Iowa State, Temple, Tennessee, Tulsa and Wyoming

NFL: Kansas City


Each week, we keep tabs throughout the season on Over/Under scoring tendencies in the NFL. And as reported in this column for the past few weeks, the success of OVERS has been outstanding in non-conference games.

After yet another outstanding 3-1 execution of the bookmakers last week, these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 38-12 (76%) OVER this season, including a jaw-dropping 14-1 OVER the last four weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be -- Arizona at Indianapolis, Carolina at Miami

Stat Of The Week

New England has been favored in each of its last 75 games in a row at home.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/20/2013 05:34 PM

Northern Illinois at Toledo

November 20, 2013

Matchup: Northern Illinois at Toledo
Venue: Glass Bowl (FieldTurf) from Toledo, Ohio
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2013
Time/TV: 8:00 pm. ET - ESPN2
Line: Northern Illinois -2 ½, Over/Under 73
Last Meeting: 2012, Northern Illinois (-10) 31 vs. Toledo 24

Northern Illinois can lock up the MAC West and earn an invite back to the MAC Championship Game with a win tonight at the Glass Bowl. Standing in the Huskies’ way is a Toledo squad that can create a three-way tie atop the MAC West standings with a win over NIU.

As of early this morning, most books had Northern Illinois (10-0 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) favored by 2 ½ or three points with a total of 72 ½. The Rockets are +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120). For first-half wagers, NIU is favored by one-half point (even-money bet) with a total of 35 ½.

Toledo (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) has won five in a row, going 4-1 ATS over that span. The Rockets raced out to a 31-0 halftime lead against Buffalo last Tuesday night. They were still able to hook up their backers as 5.5-point home favorites but allowed the Bulls back into the game before winning by a 51-41 score.

Terrance Owens threw for 228 yards and two TDs without an interception while also rushing for a score. With leading rusher David Fluellen was out for a second straight game, freshman Kareem Hunt responded by rushing for 186 yards and one TD. Bernard Reedy had three receptions for 149 yards and two scores.

For the season, Owens has 1,837 passing yards with a 13/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The tall southpaw has also run for a pair of scores. His favorite target is Reedy, who has hauled in 55 receptions for 736 yards and six touchdowns.

Fluellen has been one of the nation’s top RBs this year, but he will most likely miss a third consecutive game tonight. Fluellen has run for 1,060 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 7.0 yards per carry.

But gambler shouldn’t downgrade Toledo’s offense on account of Fluellen’s absence. That’s because Hunt as emerged as a beast. The freshman sensation has rushed for 672 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC.

NIU is led by senior QB Jordan Lynch, the 2012 MAC Offensive Player of the Year who is on his way to earning that same honor again. Lynch has led the Huskies to 10 consecutive wins by rushing for 1,273 yards and 15 TDs.

Lynch has completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 2,216 yards with a 21/5 TD-INT ratio. Tommylee Lewis and Da’Ron Brown are Lynch’s favorite targets. Lewis is possession receiver with 74 grabs for 623 yards and three TDs, while Brown stretches the field with 41 receptions for 689 yards and nine scores.

Cameron Stingily has rushed 148 times for 812 yards and nine TDs. Stingily is averaging 5.5 YPC for the Huskies.

NIU owns a 4-1 spread record as a road favorite this season and is 8-2 ATS in such spots going back to last season. Meanwhile, Toledo has compiled a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as an underdog this year.

However, this is the first home ‘dog spot for the Rockets in 2013. They are 10-5 ATS as home ‘dogs going back to 2003 and 1-0 under second-year head coach Matt Campell.

The ‘over’ is 7-3 overall for NIU, 4-2 in its road assignments. The Huskies have seen their games average 69.8 combined points per game.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Toledo, but the ‘over’ is 4-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ has cashed in four of the Rockets’ last five games. They have seen their games combine for an average score of 62.7 PPG.

When these MAC adversaries met in Dekalb last season, No. Illinois won a 31-24 decision but failed to cover the number as a 10-point home favorite. Lynch threw for 407 yards and rushed for 162 on 30 carries. He had three TD passes and one interception.

Owens threw for 265 yards but was intercepted three times. Fluellen rushed for 79 yards and one TD, while Reedy finished with 10 catches for 131 yards.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/20/2013 05:35 PM


Week 13

Northern Illinois at Toledo
The Huskies travel to Toledo tonight coming off a 48-27 win over Ball State and carrying a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Northern Illinois is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.


Game 105-106: Northern Illinois at Toledo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 95.124; Toledo 87.956
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 7; 68
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 2 1/2; 72 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-2 1/2); Under

Long Sheet

Week 13

Wednesday, November 20


N ILLINOIS (10 - 0) at TOLEDO (7 - 3) - 11/20/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TOLEDO is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 1-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Wednesday's game

Northern Illinois won last three games with Toledo by 35-3-7 points, as Huskies scored 53 ppg in games that had average total of 91. Huskies are 10-0, covering last four games, with pair of 21-point wins closest of the four wins. NIU has two road wins vs Big Dozen teams (Iowa/Purdue) so road isn't a problem for them- they've also run ball for 336 ypg last four games. Underdogs covered eight of last 11 series games. Toledo won its last five games, scoring 45+ points, running ball for 321+ yards in four of the five- they've won all five home games this season. Interesting game. Rockets covered three of four games as an underdog this season.


Week 13

Trend Report

Wednesday, November 20

8:00 PM
Northern Illinois is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Toledo
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toledo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Toledo's last 16 games



Wednesday, November 20

Northern Illinois at Toledo: What bettors need to know

Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets (+2.5, OFF)

Northern Illinois can clinch at least a share of the Mid-American Conference West Division title with a victory Wednesday against host Toledo and assure the No. 21 Huskies a fourth consecutive trip to the MAC championship game. A win by the Rockets in the Glass Bowl would forge a three-way tie for the division lead with Ball State. The No. 1 task for Toledo will be finding a way to stop Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch, who upped his Heisman Trophy stock by passing for 345 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 123 yards and two scores in a 48-27 victory last week against Ball State.

Lynch established an FBS record for rushing yards by a quarterback earlier this season when he totaled 316 yards in a 38-17 victory against Central Michigan. Last season against Toledo, Lynch threw for a career-best 407 yards and ran for 162 in the 31-24 victory. The Rockets are riding a five-game winning streak, despite giving up 27 fourth-quarter points in 51-41 victory last week against Buffalo, averaging 45.2 points in that span.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Toledo opened at +2 home dogs and have been bet to +2.5. The total is currently OFF.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high 30s with an 8 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-0, 6-0 MAC): One of the surprises for the Huskies this season has been the emergence of running back Cameron Stingily. He was limited to four appearances on special teams last season and one rushing attempt after switching to running back in the offseason and figured to be
buried behind Akeem Daniels and Keith Harris Jr. on the depth chart. But Daniels has been sidelined all season with a toe injury and Harris suffered a season-ending ankle injury in October, opening the door for Stingily to rush for 812 yards and nine touchdowns this season - second only to Lynch.

ABOUT TOLEDO (7-3, 5-1): The Rockets have been dealing with their own injuries as running back as David Fluellen, second in the MAC with 133.4 rushing
yards per game, has missed the last two contests with a leg injury and his status against Northern Illinois in uncertain. Fluellen has been replaced by freshman Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 186 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, his fourth straight game with more than 100 yards on the ground. Fluellen’s pass-catching ability is also missed as he’s third on the team with 25 receptions.


* Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Huskies last six games after rushing for more than 200 yards in the previous game.
* Under i 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 versus a team with a winning record.


1. The Rockets are 25-5 in MAC play over the past four years with three losses coming against Northern Illinois.

2. The Huskies have won 14 consecutive road games, the longest active streak in the FBS after Oregon's 19-game streak ended Nov. 7 against Stanford.

3. Northern Illinois CB Sean Evans, who started the first four games before suffering a knee injury, is expected to return against Toledo.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/20/2013 05:36 PM

Short Sheet

Wednesday, November 20

Northern Illinois at Toledo, 8:00 ET
Northern Illinois: 6-0 UNDER after having won 8 or more out of their last 10
Toledo: 9-1 UNDER as an underdog

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33099 Followers:38
11/20/2013 05:37 PM

Wednesday, November 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Northern Illinois - 8:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -3 500 POD # 1

Toledo - Over 73 500 POD # 2

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: