timpatterson Posts:21 Followers:0
On 10/19/2011 02:48 PM in MLB

World Series 2011

I am in the minority by all I've read and listened to this past few days, but I think the WS will be slightly lower scoring than people think. These starting staff are much better than they have shown in this post season. We have some pretty darn good hitters on each squad, both coming off big series wins but I'm going to think "low" the first couple games. Larussa will use his pen at fist sign of troube but I hope we can get some "quality" time out of each starter the first two games before we get into the pens.

Added info is the weather looks cold and windy tonight. Wind chill will be in the 30's. I get conflicting reports, one saying blowing in, the other saying going left to right. Either way, that helps. Tomorrow, small breeze with a low of 35.

We have two good umps. Layne goes tonight who's zone is fair, doesn't tend to squeeze the plate. Tomorrow it is Gibson who has one of the widest zones of all. He's something like 21 unders out of 30 games this year.

I think both managers play it close to the vest tonight trying to play it one run at a time.

Both aces go tonight. The Cards best chance is with Carpenter. He's the best on both teams and my angle will rely on the Cards getting the win tonight.

Tomorrow, Garcia and Wilson get the starts. Here, at least Garcia pitches much better at home. I'll beg off the side but will hope the weather and ump help this game stay low.

What I did:
Monday I bet the Cards to win the series at +145.
Today I played:
Cards to win game one at -121.
Cards game 1 Under 7.5 at +106
Cards game 2 Under 8 at -105.

The key to this bet is getting the Cards in with the win, regardless of the score in game one.
That way we have one winner and I'll scalp the series price by taking Texas to win the series which I'll guess will be around even money or better.
At that point it will be about picking my spots, if any, in the remaining games.

Worst case for these bets and angle is that Texas wins game one. Then, I'm holding a ticket that may be headed for the bottom of the bird cage.

But, life is a gamble anyway.

premiumplaya Posts:368 Followers:3
10/19/2011 04:57 PM

wilson pitches tonight against carpenter tim...could see this game going under as well though.

the wind might be blowing in...into the stadium and bouncing off the seats in left which produces a bounce-off effect and a draft from left to right, much like it does in texas's ballpark in arlington. if that's the case, i can see some of the balls hit to right field carrying more than they normally do. pujols and hamilton might have a field day with that (if texas even pitches to pujols lol)..

gl on ur plays and may the best team win.

Good luck.
bobalou Posts:5400 Followers:148
10/19/2011 05:43 PM

GL Guys, I think it's going to be a great series :)

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timpatterson Posts:21 Followers:0
10/20/2011 09:58 AM

Premium, you are right. Thanks, I mixed up the names as I typed this out.
Bobalou, thanks for coming in.

I went ahead and scalped the series price.
I took Texas at +125 to go with the Cards +140.

I've got the under going tonight and so far that's all I'll do.
If I get that win tonight I may sit on the sidelines the rest of the way.
I'll post anything if I do make another wager.

bobalou Posts:5400 Followers:148
10/20/2011 10:17 AM

Sorry I'm chiming back in sorta late (at least for yesterday and the series) I really like both these teams and way back when I took a future bet on both of them to win the W.S. So that being said I've already got it covered. But I still ended up taking a additional small bet on St. Louis for the series. ABSOLUTELY NO real reason why other than childhood nostalgia of sitting on the porch when we'd visit my grandpa and listening to the Cardinal games on the radio. He was a die-hard Cardinal fan until he died at the age of 99.

Tim with last nights game ending up 3 - 2 you may be right and it may be a low scoring pitching matchup. Last night I believe we say a combined total of 10 pitchers out there keeping the score to 5 runs

GL Everyone the rest of the way :)

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enzymex Posts:1732 Followers:61
10/20/2011 11:44 AM

Good luck Tim. I like your reasoning. I think it'll be a close series and saw some value on Cards at a dog price. Took them to win the series +142

finance Posts:9345 Followers:230
10/20/2011 11:49 AM

Thanks as always for your insight Tim....good stuff..

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premiumplaya Posts:368 Followers:3
10/20/2011 03:56 PM

with the change of the weather, i can see the majority of this series going under...

a nice little stat to take with you today...
the texas rangers haven't lost back-to-back games since august 24-25, which is almost 2 months ago. clearly, that shows the teams willingness to forget about the night before and move on with the upcoming game.

Good luck.
timpatterson Posts:21 Followers:0
10/21/2011 09:28 AM

good points and comments by all.
Premium, yeah, I knew about the Rangers not losing two in a row.
Pretty amazing...

boogyman Posts:857 Followers:32
10/21/2011 10:11 AM

Tim, been out of town and unable to reply but I liked your logic on the games.

I too thought at least the first two in St. Louis would be low scoring. Not so sure now
that the next 3 are moving to Texas. These are two very good teams and have always been
two I've followed closely. I ended up taking Texas for the series but you're thoughts on St.
Louis have a great deal of merit.

Good Luck to you...


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