cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
On 10/17/2011 06:27 PM in NFL

Cnotes NFL Week # 7 Best Bets 10/23-10/24 !

Trending: NFL Power of the Bye (Oct. 23)
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 10/17/2011 at 4:49:00 AM


We continue our series of studying teams’ performances in and out of the bye week. What you’ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 65 percent or at most 35 percent.


SEATTLE has won only three of its last 13 games when coming off a bye week, and the team is 2-11 against the spread over that span. The Seahawks did manage to buck that trend last season, beating the Bears 23-20 despite being a 6-point road underdog. One streak that did stay alive was the game going over the total for the 10th straight time in a Seattle post-bye week game.
Play On: CLEVELAND SU & ATS; OVER the total



ATLANTA is on a run of 10-2 ATS over its last 12 pre-bye week games. The Falcons stayed true to form last season with a 39-32 win at home against Cincinnati in a game in which they were a 3-point favorite. Falcons All-Pro receiver Roddy White had one of the best games of his career, racking up 201 yards on 11 receptions, which included a one-handed reception and a juggling grab while falling into the end zone.



CHICAGO has struggled in the team’s games prior to its bye week in recent seasons, going 2-8 ATS in such situations since 2001. Last year’s pre-bye week performance was particularly abysmal, as the Bears were upset at home by Washington. Chicago turned the ball over six times, four of which were Jay Cutler passes picked off by DeAngelo Hall, who tied an NFL single-game record with the four interceptions.



UNDER the total is 13-3 in Arizona’s last 16 post-bye week games. The Cardinals put up only 10 points coming off their bye last season in a 22-10 loss to Seattle. The Over/Under in that game was 40½.



OAKLAND is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 games prior to a bye week, and for the second straight season the Raiders will host the division rival Chiefs prior their bye. Entering last year’s matchup having won and covered seven straight games against the Raiders in Oakland, the Chiefs were a slight favorite on the road. It was the Raiders who prevailed, however, 23-20 in overtime.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/17/2011 06:29 PM

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

Play Against - Underdogs vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, after the first month of the season
194-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.5% | 0.0 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 0.0 units )

Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (KANSAS CITY) slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after a win by 6 or less points
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/17/2011 10:50 PM

NFL odds: Opening line report Week 7

Who can figure out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

They couldn’t stop Alex Smith. They intercepted Drew Brees three times.

They took the worst beating in franchise history, then limped home without their star defensive tackle and leading rusher. So of course they promptly upset the Saints as 6-point underdogs.

With the 4-2 Bucs heading to London to face 3-3 Chicago, the line has been fluctuating as much as Tampa’s level of play. Both teams have been slight favorites depending on when you check. No one knows where it will land.

“Tampa is a tough team to get a read on,” Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook director John Avello told “It was the same last year when they had a good season. They’ll have a lot of good weeks but when they have a poor week, oh boy. Then they usually bounce back.

“I expected them to play well in San Francisco and they took a heckuva beating.”

Opinions vary widely on Tampa Bay, which leads the NFC West despite being picked behind the Saints and Falcons.

MGM Mirage’s Jeff Stoneback called the Buccaneers “decent.”

“They were 10-6 last year and it’s just a combination of being young and inconsistent, and maybe San Fran showed it’s the real deal,” Stoneback told “Sometimes a team plays a bad game, gets behind early and things just steamroll.”

Despite Sunday’s 26-20 win over New Orleans, handicapper Steve Merril rates Tampa Bay as “below average.”

“They were in a good situation, as they were coming off a blowout loss and caught the Saints in their third straight road game,” Merril said.

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the Bucs as 1-point favorites, but that was before Chicago pounded Minnesota on Sunday night. Now Chicago is laying 1.

There are times, manager Jay Kornegay said, when “things don’t go the Bucs’ way and they just don’t perform. But you can’t just look at one or two weeks. You have to look at the whole picture.

“They’re never as bad as they seem or as good as they seem.”

Tampa isn’t the only tough team to get a read on.

The Steelers dominated Tennessee 38-17 in Week 5, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Then they sleepwalked through a 17-13 win over Jacksonville on Sunday, failing to cover 12.5.

“The Steelers appear to be suffering from the ‘Super Bowl loser’ syndrome,” Covers expert Marc Lawrence said. “That, and a beat-up offensive line, have done in a lot of teams.”

Pittsburgh has been up and down since getting blown out by Baltimore in the opener.

“They come back and look good against Tennessee, then they just plod through with Jacksonville,” Stoneback said. “They win, but you’re just waiting for them to break out and start dominating a few teams. They seem to play down to their competition.”

Pittsburgh is laying 3.5 at Arizona. The best thing you can say about the Cardinals is they’re rested.

Other inscrutable teams include Dallas and Philadelphia.

“Dallas is kind of confusing,” Kornegay said. “Their line of scrimmage play is really good sometimes. But they make a lot of bad mistakes. They’re just really inconsistent.

“The Eagles are another team that’s hard to get a grasp on,” he continued. “They’re talented. It’s just a matter of whether they’ll implode or not.”


Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14, 47.5)

The Saints are angry and coming home. The winless Colts are playing their second straight on the road.

“Two touchdowns seems like a lot because New Orleans lets teams stay in the game,” Avello said. “But I don’t know how that Indy offense keeps up with the New Orleans offense.”

Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 18-12 ATS coming off a loss and 14-9 ATS in non-conference games.


Chicago vs. Tampa Bay in London (1, 43), Washington at Carolina (-1.5, 44)

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan says he won’t choose between John Beck and Rex Grossman until Wednesday, and who can blame him? It’s not an appealing choice. Whoever gets the nod will play behind a line that just suffered two significant injuries.

Carolina (4-2 ATS) can only hope Cam Newton’s three-interception performance was a speedbump and not a sign defenses are catching up to the freakishly athletic rookie.


Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5, 48.5)

The Lions have played two straight unders after opening with four overs. Sunday’s 25-19 home loss to San Francisco barely stayed under the total of 45.

Look for the Falcons, who re-established their ground game Sunday, to try to run against a Lions defense that ranks 26th (129.5 yards per game). However, the over is 11-6-2 ATS in Atlanta’s last 19 conference games.

This is the biggest total because high-scoring teams like New England, Buffalo and the Giants are off.


Baltimore at Jacksonville (7.5, 38.5), Seattle at Cleveland (-3, 40)

The Ravens played over in every game until Sunday, when their 29-14 win over Houston stayed under by half a point.

But it’s hard to see the Jaguars mustering much offense in this matchup. They’re averaging 12 points and haven’t played a defense of this caliber. The Jags own a 1-5 O/U mark.

Seattle has a striking 14-6 O/U mark in road games since 2009 and the over is 20-9-1 when the Seahawks are underdogs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/18/2011 05:39 PM

Misleading Finals

October 18, 2011

Atlanta (-3.5) 31 Carolina 17

The Panthers actually led 17-14 entering the fourth quarter in a game that was much closer than the final score suggests. Capitalizing on a marginal punt, the Falcons tied the game with a field goal early in the fourth quarter and the defense stepped up with another stand to force Carolina to punt, surrendering good field position again. Atlanta put together a 10-play drive to find the end zone and then on Carolina’s next possession an interception the Falcons got the ball in Carolina territory again, eventually adding another touchdown to seal the game.

Cincinnati (-4.5) 27 Indianapolis 17

A lot of late action brought this line down considerably, opening at -7. Cincinnati seemed in control most of the way, taking a 20-7 lead into the fourth quarter but the Colts had a rally left, cutting the lead to 20-17 just a few minutes into the fourth quarter. The Bengals were very conservative on offense playing with the lead and had to punt back to the Colts, leading by just three with plenty of time on the clock. Indianapolis could not take advantage of good field position as the tying field goal attempt was blocked. Cincinnati was in position to push the lead past the spread late in the game but also missed a field goal to set up the Colts for another chance. Indianapolis would fumble after a first down completion and the Bengals returned it for a touchdown to seal the win and the cover with just over two minutes to go. Indianapolis got the ball back but an interception was the result, ending the chance for more late drama relative to the spread.

New York Giants (-3) 27 Buffalo 24

The Giants seemed to be in control in the second half of this game but Buffalo kept finding ways to answer. The Bills tied the game in the fourth quarter at 24-24 and seemed to have momentum after forcing the Giants to punt on the next possession. After the Bills moved into field goal range, Buffalo would turn the ball over with an interception, giving the Giants a great opportunity to win the game. The Giants put together a methodical drive to get into a first and goal situation with less than two minutes to go but ultimately had to settle for the field goal, leaving the game at a push.

Baltimore (-7) 29 Houston 14

Houston hung close with the Ravens most of the way, actually leading 14-13 late in the third quarter before a Baltimore field goal. Early in the fourth quarter the Ravens added another field goal to lead 19-14 and that score looked like it might hold up as there were punts on the next three possessions. The Ravens finally were able to cash with a touchdown, completing a 66-yard scoring drive with just over four minutes to go to get past the spread. In desperation mode the Texans turned the ball over on downs deep in their own territory, setting up the Ravens for another field goal, the fifth of the day to create the rare score of 29.

Oakland (-6.5) 24 Cleveland 17

After a fake field goal late in the third quarter, the Raiders appeared to be in complete control, leading 24-7 entering the fourth quarter. Cleveland added a field goal to cut into the margin but the Raiders were still well past the spread that was right at -7 most of the week before dropping late. Oakland put together a 12-play drive to burn nearly eight minutes off the clock but the chagrin of spread backers the Raiders opted to go for it on fourth and one at the Cleveland five-yard line, rather than pushing the margin to 17 points with an easy field goal. Predictably the Browns went down the field, including surviving an interception that was reversed and scored to cut the lead to just seven points with just over a minute to go. The Browns actually recovered an onside kick and moved into Oakland territory but could not force the tie.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/18/2011 05:41 PM

NFL Betting Preview For Week 7

The New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles shed their disappointment tags for at least one week and now look ahead to Week 7 of the NFL betting season.

Philadelphia (2-4 straight up) had arguably a season-saving 20-13 win at Washington. The Eagles finally won the turnover battle (4-2), picking off the enigmatic Rex Grossman four times and the ‘cover’ of the 3-point spread stopped a 4-game losing streak (SU and ATS).

Coach Andy Reid’s team is still in the NFC East basement, two games behind the New York Giants, but gets to regroup with a bye week. Division leaders New England, San Francisco and the Giants are also off in addition to Buffalo and Cincinnati.

New England and San Fran had thrilling wins respectively over Dallas (20-16) and Detroit (25-19). They now get a chance to catch their respective breaths. The Giants were lucky to survive Buffalo (27-24), while Cincinnati beat Indianapolis (27-17) to improve to a surprising 4-2.

The NY Jets (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) had a huge win on Monday night, 24-6 as 7-point home favorites over woeful Miami. The Jets offense started very slowly, not even getting a first down until midway through the second quarter. Matt Moore had two picks as the new Dolphins starter, including one returned 100 yards by Darrelle Revis in a game-changing touchdown.

Rex Ryan knows his Jets must play better at the outset this Sunday against explosive San Diego (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS). The game is currently a pick ‘em at Don Best. The Chargers only loss (35-21) was when they headed East to face New England, although that game was closer than the score indicates.

Elsewhere around the league this week, Oakland (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) will reportedly acquire Cincinnati holdout quarterback Carson Palmer before today’s trading deadline. Former starter Jason Campbell is out with a broken collarbone and Kyle Boller will likely start against Kansas City (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) even if the trade is completed. The Raiders are 4-point home favorites.

There are quarterback questions in St. Louis (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) as Sam Bradford has been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury suffered at Green Bay. The Rams and Dolphins are the only two teams without a ‘cover’ this season. Veteran A.J. Feeley is expected to start at disappointing Dallas (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS), with the ‘Boys 12-point favorites.

Seattle (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) is trying to get its season going after a bye. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson (pectoral) is doubtful as the team visits Cleveland. Charlie Whitehurst should start after filling in nicely last game at the Giants (36-25 win). Cleveland (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) just lost at Oakland 24-17 and is 3-point home favorites this week.

The marquee matchup of the week is arguably Atlanta (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Detroit (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS). The Falcons need to prove they can beat a quality team on the road, going 0-3 ATS and only beating Seattle (30-28). The Lions are 3 ½-point favorites and are playing their third consecutive home game after suffering their first loss to San Fran.

Chicago (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) and Tampa Bay (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) will travel across the pond to play in London. The Bears are 1 ½-point favorites and this game did not go well the last time for the Bucs here in 2009, a 35-7 loss to Tom Brady and New England.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) have struggled on the road at 0-3 ATS, with the only win barely getting by awful Indy 23-20. They are in the desert to face the Cardinals with Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt looking for revenge after losing this matchup in Super Bowl XLIII. Pittsburgh is 4-point road favorites.

Houston (3-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is a surprising battle for first place in the AFC South. Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson (hamstring) is doubtful after missing the last two games and the once high-powered offense is averaging just 17 PPG the last three weeks (‘under’ 3-0). The Titans are 3-point favorites coming off a bye.

The Indianapolis Colts (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS) were favored in the AFC South until the Peyton Manning injury. Now, they appear to be trying for the worst record in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. This Sunday night’s game at New Orleans is already their third primetime game (2-0 ATS in the first two) and a repeat of Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints are big 14-point ‘chalk.’

The week concludes Monday night with Baltimore (4-1 SU and ATS) visiting Jacksonville (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS). Baltimore and New England appear to be the two best teams in the AFC. The Jaguars are the second-lowest scoring team in football (12 PPG), helping the ‘under’ go 5-1. The Ravens range anywhere from 7 ½ to 9-point road favorites.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/18/2011 05:42 PM

Week 7 Preview: Falcons at Lions



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -3.5, Total: 47.5

Atlanta tries to piece together its first win streak of the season when it pays a visit to Detroit on Sunday.

The Lions are indeed coming off a disappointing first loss of the year, droppinga home game against the 49ers, but they have a chance to pounce on the Falcons in Week 7. Atlanta has not played well against teams with winning records this year, losing all three of those games by a combined margin of 71-39. Even in getting a win at home against Carolina last week, Atlanta was outgained by the Panthers. Atlanta is 2-4 ATS this year, while the Lions are 16-4 ATS in the past two seasons. The pick for Sunday’s game is DETROIT.

This three-star FoxSheets Power Trend also sides with the Lions:

DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (82.4%, +10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.7, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*).

The Falcons turned back to RB Michael Turner and the power running game to beat Carolina this past Sunday, as he ran for a season-high 139 yards on 27 carries. Turner expects to have another heavy workload against the Lions soft run defense. Detroit has allowed 5.2 yards per carry this year (2nd-most in NFL) and was steamrolled by San Francisco last week, allowing 203 yards on 29 carries (7.0 YPC). Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw just 22 passes in last week’s game, the fewest attempts he’s had in a full game since his rookie year. Star WR Roddy White still doesn’t look 100 percent because of a knee injury, as he only caught two passes against the Panthers. The Falcons other starting WR Julio Jones missed the Carolina game with a hamstring injury and his return is questionable for the trip to Detroit.

The Lions will continue to air out the football, especially with leading rusher Jahvid Best doubtful to play on Sunday because of a concussion. The Falcons rank 27th in the NFL in passing defense (283 YPG), and they’ll have all kinds of problems with the Lions dynamic duo of QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. Stafford has thrown at least two touchdowns in all six games this year, totaling 15 TD and 4 INT on the season. Johnson leads the NFL with nine touchdowns and has gained at least 88 receiving yards five times this season. In addition to Best, the Lions have other injury worries for Sunday, as LB Justin Durant (concussion), CB Eric Wright (leg) and S Vincent Fuller (elbow) are all questionable for Sunday’s game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/18/2011 05:44 PM

Week 7 Preview: Packers at Vikings



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 47

The Packers put their 12-game win streak on the line when they visit Mall of America Field for a date with a reeling Vikings team fresh off a Sunday beat-down in Chicago.

Thanksgiving weekend a year ago was the last time the Packers lost a gameSU that Aaron Rodgers started and finished, and this Vikings team appears to be in no position to snap that streak. The Packers have won 11 of 13 ATS, which includes Rodgers and company coming into Minnesota a year ago and dominating the Vikes in a 31-3 slaughter. The Vikings are expected to start rookie QB Christian Ponder under center as they contemplate playing for the future. But Ponder and/or current starter Donovan McNabb stand little chance against Green Bay’s exotic blitz packages and ball-hawking corners. GREEN BAY should win this one easily by double-digits.

This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also supports the Packers:

Mike McCarthy is 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 29.3, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 3*).

During Green Bay’s dozen-game ride, Aaron Rodgers is averaging a hefty 313 passing YPG, with 31 TD and just 6 INT. He has also tossed 12 TD and just 3 INT in seven career meetings with the Vikings. The Packers rushing attack remains subpar though, ranked 24th in yards (99 YPG) and 27th in yards per carry (3.8 YPC). Top RB James Starks has a total of 157 rushing yards (3.2 YPC) in his past four games. The Green Bay defense also has some lopsided statistics, ranking 5th in rushing (84 YPG), but 2nd-worst in passing defense (300 YPG). The Packers have not lost the turnover battle in any of their six games this year, posting a +7 TO margin on the season.

About the only thing the Vikings have going for them in this game is that the underdog is 14-5 ATS (10-9 SU) in this series at Minnesota since 1992. Vikings star RB Adrian Peterson was limited to 39 yards on 12 carries in the 39-10 loss to Chicago last Sunday night, but he has usually found room to run against Green Bay. Peterson has amassed 807 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 5 TD in eight career meetings versus the Pack. The passing game certainly needs some kind of change, ranked 2nd-to-last in the NFL with 169 YPG. But Ponder’s numbers against Chicago (9-of-17, 99 yds, 5.8 YPA, 70.5 rating) were worse than McNabb’s stat line (19-of-24, 177 yds, 7.4 YPA, 97.4 rating). One player who can help either QB is Percy Harvin, who had a season-high 78 receiving yards in the loss to Chicago. Defensively, the Vikings have smothered opposing ball carriers, allowing a mere 84 rushing YPG (4th in NFL). But the passing defense ranks 24th in the league (270 YPG) and could be without two key members of the secondary. CB Antoine Winfield (neck) and S Jamarca Sanford (concussion) are both questionable for Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/19/2011 06:36 PM

Bears And Buccaneers In London NFL Betting Preview

Jay Cutler is coming off his best game of 2011 in a win over the Vikings.
Was last week a "buy signal" for both Chicago (3-3) and Tampa Bay (4-2)? Or was it just another in what might be a succession of rollercoaster efforts for both?

We’ll have a better idea after this Sunday, although for these two we’ll have to go across the pond to London to find out more answers. That’s because the Bears and Bucs are getting together at the new Wembley Stadium for the NFL’s annual excursion overseason this weekend.

Will Prince Will and Princess Kate be in attendance? Or maybe Pippa Middleton? Easy, lads.

We do know the FOX's cameras will be present, with Kenny Albert, Dary Johnstone and Tony Siragusa rewarded with the extra flyer miles to describe the action.

The Don Best odds screen sees the Bears a narrow 1-point betting choice at the majority of outlets, with the total 44 at most shops and a few 43½’s available. Kickoff time in London Town will be 1:00 p.m. (ET).

Both were highly encouraged by their efforts last week, especially Tampa Bay which recovered from a wicked 48-3 defeat inflicted by bully Jim Harbaugh and the rugged 49ers to beat high-flying New Orleans in a tense NFC South affair last Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The win put Tampa Bay right back in the thick of the division race with the Saints instead of falling a potentially-damaging two games behind the acknowledged NFC South favorites.

There were plenty of concerns at One Buccaneers Place in the run-up to last week’s game and the prospect of competing without slamming RB LeGarrette Blount and the infantry diversion he had so capably provided since late last season. Out with injury, he was replaced by fearless Earnest Graham, who provided a pretty good Blount impersonation when running for 109 tough yards in the win over the Saints.

Most encouraging to head coach Raheem Morris, however, was the effort of the defense against the high-powered, Drew Brees-led Saints offense. For the third time this season, Tampa Bay held an opponent to 70 or fewer rushing yards. Moreover, Morris’ stop unit forced four turnovers in the game, and was able to locate something of a pass rush, which had disappeared in a few games this season.

Keeping the latter up to par will require some added scheming this week by Morris, with star DT Gerald McCoy likely sidelined again. Look for Morris to dial up more blitzes in hopes of rattling Bear QB Jay Cutler.

Speaking of Midway Jay, he seemed much more comfy last week in the 39-10 romp past the Vikings. In the wake of offering a very lukewarm endorsement for offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ schemes the previous week, Cutler was able to work efficiently with shorter three and five-step drops, as opposed to the seven-step deep drops that had resulted in him being under siege for much of the first month of the season. Cutler’s 115.9 passer rating vs. the Vikes was his best of the season to date.

Still, the key to Chicago’s offense is establishing RB Matt Forte, who gained another 87 yards vs. Minnesota and has rushed for over 400 yards in the last three games combined. When Forte can provide a proper ground diversion, opponents are less likely to tee off on Cutler.

And therein probably lies the key to this game, as the Bucs’ stout rush defense can help the Tampa Bay cause immeasurably by keeping the clamps on Forte.

On the other hand, Chicago’s defense still has some questions. Although effective vs. disorganized Minnesota and keeping Adrian Peterson in relative check last Sunday night, the Bears have still allowed 5.4 yards per carry this season, and their smallish defensive front isn’t built to battle the Bucs’ heavyweight offensive line.

We’ll also have to see if Lovie Smith’s recent changes in the secondary (veteran safeties Chris Harris and Brandon Meriwether benched, little-used Major Wright and rookie Chris Conte now starting in their place) can be exploited by capable Buc QB Josh Freeman.

Note that Tampa Bay has also covered 14 of its last 19 games away from Raymond James Stadium.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/19/2011 06:37 PM

John Beck Starts For Redskins at Carolina Panthers

The ’under’ has cashed in five of the Redskins’ last six games on the road.
Hold off on some of that Washington Redskins (3-2) playoff chatter that has been gushing from D.C. over the past month.

It looks like Mike Shanahan still might not have a proper quarterback to lead the 'Skins back to the postseason.

The Shan’s QB issues are topics number one, two and three on Rick Walker and John Thompson’s WTEM show and other sports talk programming this week in and around The Beltway after last week’s meltdown by starter Rex Grossman against Philadelphia. Four picks by the former Bears starter cost the Redskins dearly and have reopened the QB debate in the Nation’s Capital.

The next chapter of this saga unfolds Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte against the Carolina Panthers (1-5). Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET), with the Panthers a consensus 2 ½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Posted ‘totals’ are bouncing between 43 and 43½ points. FOX provides the regional coverage with Chris Myers and Tim Ryan behind the microphones.

What Shanahan might do with his quarterback situation, however, is the dominant storyline in the run-up to this game. Grossman had provided serviceable if not spectacular in the first four games of the season as Washington broke to a rather surprising 3-1 start. But last week’s stinker vs. the Eagles forced Shanahan to go to the bench and ex-BYU and Dolphins QB John Beck, who had not taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game since 2007.

Beck, however, poured gasoline on the QB controversy fire by almost leading the Redskins back into Sunday’s game, and leading Washington’s lone TD drive which culminated in his own scramble for a score.

In the bigger picture, however, one must begin to wonder if Shanahan gambled too much on these two shaky alternatives at quarterback. The Redskins' offense has bogged down, failing to score more than 17 points in any of the last three outings. Moreover, with the trading deadline having passed this week and Shanahan unable (or unwilling) to make any moves to upgrade the position, he’s forced to ride with either Grossman or Beck the rest of the way.

By midweek, The Shan finally announced he would go with Beck to start Sunday.

At least the Redskins defense continues to perform efficiently. Finally adapting in the second year of defensive coordinator Jim Haslett’s base 3-4 and variations from that alignment, the 'Skins have not allowed more than 21 points to anybody and have particularly tightened their pass defense, permitting only 4 TD passes and 54.9% completions. The emergence of Purdue rookie DE Ryan Kerrigan, whose ability to pressure from the edge along with Brian Orakpo on the opposite side has helped result in 17 sacks to date.

And defense figures to give Washington its best chance on Sunday.

Although a slight favorite, remember that host Carolina has won only one of its first six games, and that came in the late going against a suspect Jacksonville side. The Panthers are certainly not used to winning, either, dropping 19 of 22 games straight up since last season.

There’s lots of hope, of course, thanks to the arrival of Heisman-winning Auburn QB Cam Newton, who has opened plenty of eyes with his early-season exploits. Newton is passing for better than 300 yards per game through six weeks.

But, he remains a rookie, and when his learning curve slows as it did last week in Atlanta, the Panthers are in trouble. Newton suffered three picks at the Georgia Dome and now has nine interceptions (vs. seven TDs passes) this season. An injury to RT Jeff Otah has also impacted the offensive line, as rookie replacement Byron Bell had all sorts of problems vs. the Falcons last week.

Of greater concern to Panthers’ first-year head coach Ron Rivera is a defense that continues to spring leaks, which has to really grate Rivera, an acknowledged defensive specialist. But his stop unit is running on short rations, with season-ending injuries to LBs Jon Beason and Thomas Davis and DT Ron Edwards dangerously thinning Carolina along its front seven. The Panthers have allowed nearly five yards per carry to opposing rushers and the pass rush has been inconsistent, registering just nine sacks in six games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34878 Followers:38
10/19/2011 06:39 PM

New York Jets Host Rested San Diego Chargers

San Diego has covered just one of its last six meetings with the Jets.
The San Diego Chargers (4-1) have always been apt to sleepwalk through early-season games since Norv Turner arrived as head coach in 2007.

But we don’t think we have to worry about the Chargers being flat this weekend.

Indeed, San Diego’s trip to MetLife Stadium in the New Jersey Meadowlands for Sunday’s 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff against the host New York Jets (3-3) is anything but another ho-hum October game for the Bolts.

Instead, it’s about revenge.

The Chargers, now listed a 2-point favorites at most Las Vegas betting outlets, with a total at 43½ or 44 depending upon where one shops, have yet to forget about their bitter playoff loss at the hands of the Jets at the conclusion of the 2009 campaign.

To refresh memories, San Diego entered the playoffs that campaign as the AFC’s top seed after recording a 13-3 regular-season mark. After a first-round bye, the Bolts were rated as solid 8½-point favorites in the Division Round against the visiting Jets, who had won at Cincinnati by a 20-10 count in the previous week’s AFC Wild Card Round.

San Diego, however, was unable to put the Jets away when it had its chances that afternoon at Qualcomm Stadium. Up 7-0 at the half, the Chargers saw the Jets cut the lead to 7-3 in the third quarter. Failing to capitalize on a subsequent New York turnover early in the fourth quarter, San Diego quickly gave the ball right back when QB Philip Rivers was intercepted by safety Jim Leonhard, who returned the pick to the Bolts’ 16. From there, Mark Sanchez led the Jets into the end zone with a 2-yard TD toss to Justin Keller, putting the New Yorkers in front.

Later in the fourth quarter, the Jets sealed the game when Iowa rookie RB Shonn Greene busted the longest TD run in franchise history, a 53-yarder, to give Rex Ryan’s team an unassailable 17-7 lead. A late Rivers TD sneak cut the deficit to 17-14, but the Jets were able to run out the clock thanks to some tough running by vet Thomas Jones.

Some AFC West observers claim the Bolts went into a deep funk after the game, a bitter postseason exit reminiscent of a similar failure against Bill Belichick’s Patriots after the 2006 season that cost head coach Marty Schottenheimer his job. San Diego stumbled through much of 2010, missing the playoffs, and some insiders believe the Chargers have been waiting to exorcise those playoff demons for the past 21 months.

Sunday could be their opportunity.

Fundamentals suggest San Diego, well-rested after last week’s bye, has a good chance at gaining its pound of flesh. The combination of a solid offensive line and QB Rivers’ quick release should negate some of pass-rush pressure Ryan’s stop unit is likely to unleash. Sources say Rivers has been working closely over the past week with Turner on improved reads, looking to improve upon his uncharacteristic seven picks thus far.

Moreover, the Bolts are starting to get some good balance offensively with second-year ex-Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews (413 YR & 4.9 ypc) now providing a dangerous infantry diversion. New PK Nick Novak has also converted on all 11 of his field goal tries this season.

The week off also gave Rivers a chance to heal sore ribs and increased the likelihood that TE Antonio Gates will be healthier and more productive after battling plantar fascitis since the preseason.

Meanwhile, AFC East sources are not convinced that the Jets’ 24-6 Monday Night win over struggling Miami is indicative of a "buy" signal for Ryan’s team. The Jets blew hot-and-cold on offense all night and needed a franchise-record 100-yard interception return for a TD by DB Darrelle Revis to jump-start the team late in the first quarter.

As for QB Mark Sanchez, his efforts continue to be unconvincing, with his passing rating among the lowest for starting QBs in the league. Sources also indicate there remains some friction in the NY clubhouse after WR Santonio Holmes called out the offensive line following a recent three-game losing streak.

The win over Miami also might not be an indicator that the Jets’ defense is where Ryan wants it to be at this stage, either. Remember, New York had allowed 30 points or more in three straight games prior to the success vs. the impotent Dolphins on Monday night.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: