steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 07/30/2013 10:27 AM in Cappers

TUESDAY'S MLB FREE PICK ---Diamondbacks/Rays Over 8---

Arizona vs. Tampa Bay, 07/30/2013 19:10
Total: -109/+8 Over

TUESDAY'S MLB FREE PICK ---Diamondbacks/Rays Over 8---

With Ian Kennedy and Roberto Hernandez scheduled to take the mound in tonight's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Rays, I expect to see the total score reach double-digits.

Kennedy has been a complete disappointment in 2013, he's just 3-7 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.403 WHIP over 20 starts and it's been just as bad on the road, where he's 1-4 with a 5.25 ERA. Considering the Rays are average 4.6 runs/game at home and are hitting a solid .266 as a team over their last 7 games, I like their chances of scoring at least 4 runs with the potential to cover the total on their own. Not to mention, Kennedy is 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rays. Each of his last three starts have come at Tampa Bay and he's allowed 12 runs on 15 hits in just 16 and 1/3 innings of work over the three.

As for Hernandez, he's arguably the worst starter in an otherwise stacked rotation in Tampa Bay. He's 5-11 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.323 WHIP over 19 starts and hasn't been a whole lot better at home, where he has a 4.25 ERA and 1.321 WHIP. He goes up against a hot Arizona offense that is average 4.9 runs/game and hitting 2.63 over their last 7 games.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the Diamondbacks last 7 road games vs a team with home winning percentage greater than 60% and 27-13-2 in their last 42 road games with a total between 7 and 8.5. It's also 4-0 in the Rays last 4 interleague home games vs a RHP and 12-4-1 in their last 17 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. BET THE OVER!

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