cnotes Posts:33330 Followers:38
07/29/2013 09:45 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

How last ten defending Super Bowl champs did in their first game the next season; notice the last nine all played their opener at home.........

2003-- Buccaneers W17-0 at Philadelphia, +3
2004-- Patriots W27-24 vs Indianapolis, -3
2005-- Patriots W30-20 vs Oakland -7.5
2006-- Steelers W28-17 vs Miami -1
2007-- Colts W41-10 vs New Orleans -5.5
2008-- Giants W16-7 vs Washington -4.5
2009-- Steelers W13-10 vs Tennessee -6.5
2010-- Saints W14-9 vs Minnesota -5
2011-- Packers W42-34 vs New Orleans -5
2012-- Giants L17-24 vs Dallas -5 (6-2-2 vs spread)
2013-- Ravens, +8.5, 49.5 at Denver.

How last ten Super Bowl losers did in their season opener the next year:
2003--Raiders L20-25, @ Tennessee, +3
2004-- Panthers L14-24 vs Green Bay -3
2005-- Eagles L10-14 @ Atlanta -1
2006-- Seahawks W9-6 @ Detroit -6
2007-- Bears L3-19 @ San Diego +7
2008-- Patriots W17-10 vs Kansas City -16
2009-- Cardinals L16-20 vs San Francisco -5
2010-- Colts L24-34 @ Houston -1.5
2011-- Steelers L7-35 @ Baltimore +1
2012-- Patriots W34-13 @ Tennessee -5 (1-9 vs spread)
2013-- 49ers, -5, 50.5 vs Green Bay

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33330 Followers:38
08/06/2013 03:22 PM

NFL Games of the Year: Playoff race makes Ravens live dog vs. Pats

NFL Week 16: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)

Past history: John Harbaugh (head coach) and Joe Flacco (QB) both came to Baltimore in 2008 and from 2009-12, the Ravens have met the Pats six times. The Pats are 2-1 SU in the regular season but are 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) in the three postseason meetings, all of which were played in New England.

Early look at the Patriots: While there are many changes in New England, the Pats remain defined by the duo of head coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. The two helped lead New England to Super Bowl wins to cap the 2001, 2003 and 2004 seasons, winning nine straight postseason games. That duo extended its postseason win streak to 10 in the 2005 season but since that win, have gone 7-7 in postseason games (just 4-10 ATS), including losing Super Bowls to the Giants in both the 2007 and 2011 seasons. The Pats remain the class of the AFC East (not saying much), so expect Belichick and Brady to be back in the playoffs in 2013.

Early look at the Ravens: Every Super Bowl champion faces a tough task the year after winning it all (last back-to-back champs were the Pats in ‘03-‘04). However, few defending champs have faced the kind of turnover and changes that have beset this current Ravens team. Joe Flacco’s incredible postseason (1,140 yards with 11 TDs and 0 INTs) earned him a $120 million contract in the offseason but I doubt anyone expects Flacco to replicate that kind of performance week-in and week-out in the 2013 regular season.

Where this line will move: This meeting comes late in the season and the Pats will likely have already secured the AFC East division title. In comparison, the Ravens will very likely be in a life-and-death playoff fight in the AFC North. If that’s the case, I’m taking the home dog.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33330 Followers:38
08/06/2013 03:23 PM

Three best NFL preseason Week 1 bets since 1995

Betting on Week 1 of the NFL preseason is a bet on randomness. Teams may or may not play their starters. And if they do, it’s only for a few sets.

Second, third and even fourth-string players will decide your fate, so why not wager on teams that have shown some consistency in an otherwise chaotic stretch of schedule.

We look at the best Week 1 NFL preseason bets since 1995 and how those teams look heading into the 2013 exhibition calendar.

Denver Broncos (10-7 SU, 12-4-1 ATS in Week 1)

The Broncos have a laundry list of offseason issues and may be just trying to get through the preseason without adding to those troubles. Reports out of camp state Peyton Manning may see limited action this summer, with the offensive line missing some key cogs. Denver smoked Chicago 31-3 in last year’s preseason opener and is a 3-point underdog at San Francisco this Thursday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS in Week 1)

When you read headlines like “Bucs Just Hoping To Survive Preseason”, it doesn’t instill the greatest confidence in Tampa Bay bettors. The Buccaneers’ No. 1 priority is making sure everyone sees Week 1, which could mean plenty of play for third and fourth-string scrubs this summer. The Bucs beat Miami 20-7 as 3-point dogs in Week 1 last preseason and are 3-point home faves hosting Baltimore Thursday.

Seattle Seahawks (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS in Week 1)

Seattle has the same ATS mark in Week 1 as the Titans and Bengals, but we focus on the Seahawks because they seem to give a crap about winning the warm-ups. Last year, Seattle beat Tennessee 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite in Week 1, en route to a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS preseason. This time around, the Seahawks are plugging the hole at WR left by Percy Harvin’s injury. Sidney Rice is also nursing a bum knee, so the Seahawks' passing game could have its wings clipped this preseason. Seattle is a 2.5-point road favorite at San Diego Thursday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33330 Followers:38
08/06/2013 03:24 PM

NFL betting: AFC East teams' awful ATS trend

The Miami Dolphins failed to cover as 3-point faves in a 24-20 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game Sunday.

The failure to cover the spread harkens back to a dismal 2012 preseason campaign for AFC East teams.

The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets finished the 2012 exhibition schedule a combined 1-15 ATS. The Bills were the only team to cover as they were 3-point dogs in a 7-6 loss to the Washington Redskins.

Miami, New England and New York all finished 0-4 ATS.

The preseasons schedule resumes Thursday, but the AFC East squads are in action on Friday.

The Jets are currently 4.5-road dogs as they face the Detroit Lions. The Pats are similar 4.5-point road underdogs in Philly to take on the Eagles. The Dolphins' second game is on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars with the that matchup currently a pick 'em. Finally, The Indianapolis Colts host the Bills to finish off the week Sunday. The Bills are 3-point road dogs in that game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33330 Followers:38
08/06/2013 03:29 PM

Tuesday, August 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Los Angeles - 7:00 PM ET Los Angeles -3.5 500 POD # 2
Connecticut - Under 155 500 POD # 7

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET San Antonio +10.5 500 POD # 4

San Antonio - Under 154 500 POD # 5

Indiana - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -5.5 500 POD # 3

Chicago - Under 145.5 500 POD # 6

Seattle - 10:00 PM ET Seattle +9.5 500 POD # 1

Phoenix - Under 155.5 500 POD # 8

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33330 Followers:38
08/07/2013 10:08 AM

NFL Games of the Year: Giants 4.5-point faves hosting Vikings

NFL Week 7: Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-4.5)

Past history: The Giants have won two Super Bowl titles since the 2007 season and these teams have met three times in that span. All three have come in Minnesota - sort of. The 2008 and 2009 meetings came in Week 17 games with the Vikings winning 20-19 in 2008 and 44-7 in 2009. The 2010 meeting was a Week 14 contest, although the game was moved from Minneapolis (Sunday) to the Detroit on a Monday, because the Metrodome roof collapsed under heavy snow early the previous day. The Giants won 21-3 in a game best remembered as a contest in which the 41-year-old Brett Favre sat out with a right shoulder injury that made his hand numb. It ended his NFL record streak of 297 straight starts.

Early look at the Vikings: Adrian Peterson came within nine yards of breaking the all-time single-season rushing mark last season (2,097) and is predicting he may exceed 2,500 yards in 2013. After back-to-back seasons of 6-10 and 3-13, the Vikings went 10-6 to grab the No. 6 seed in last year’s NFC playoffs. Repeating that performance in 2013 with a QB as mediocre as Christian Ponder seems unlikely.

Early look at the Giants: New York won its 2011 Week 17 game against the Cowboys, clinching the NFC East title with a 9-7 record. The Giants then went on to win their second Super bowl title in five years. The Giants went 9-7 again last year but this time their record was not playoff worthy. Many are predicting a return to the playoffs for the Giants in 2013 and I’m one of them.

Where this line will move: The Giants won a Super Bowl title in 2007 and again in 2011 but through last year (a span of six seasons), the team is a modest 29-19 SU at home and a poor 22-24-2 ATS. I’ve always preferred playing the Giants on the road but I’d need at least seven points in this one to consider taking the Vikings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33330 Followers:38
08/07/2013 10:09 AM

Three worst NFL preseason Week 1 bets since 1995

Losing an NFL preseason bet is like burning your hand in a fire. You knew it was hot, so why’d you touch it?

However, after a long summer stranded in baseball, preseason football is salt water to the shipwrecked sailor. You want to drink it up so bad.

If you’re thinking about getting in on the Week 1 preseason action, beware these three teams which have constantly fallen short of the spread during the opening slate of tune-up games. We eye their Week 1 records, going back as far as 1995, and how they look heading into this summer’s preseason:

Dallas Cowboys (5-12 SU, 4-13 ATS in Week 1)

Dallas didn’t look too bad in the Hall of Fame Game, despite all but four starters sitting out. The new 4-3 defensive scheme ran pretty smoothly for the first time around and the offense got a boost from the running game, which is a big plus. The Cowboys are 2-point favorites in Oakland for Week 1 of the preseason Friday. Quarterback Tony Romo is expected to play limited action as are the majority of Dallas’ first-stringers.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-10 SU, 4-10-2 ATS)

Former head coach Andy Reid was known for his lack of interest in the preseason and it shows in the Eagles’ Week 1 preseason mark. But now, with new coach Chip Kelly installing his up-tempo offense, Philadelphia may be putting a little more weight into its exhibition slate. The Eagles are 4-point favorites hosting New England Friday, and will likely march out five different QBs by the end of the night.

Detroit Lions (9-8 SU, 4-10-3 ATS)

There is pressure on coach Jim Schwartz to win right away in 2013, after last year’s disastrous four-win campaign. And that could mean giving more than two craps about the preseason. The Lions will reportedly run a cut-and-dry game plan, not customizing their attack to Week 1 opponents, the New York Jets. Detroit has new RB Reggie Bush atop the depth chart with Mikel Leshoure backing him up. The Lions could stretch the legs and go rush-heavy in order to build their ground game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: