steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 07/03/2013 10:28 AM in Cappers

WEDNESDAY'S MLB FREE PICK ---Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+106)---

San Diego vs. Boston, 07/03/2013 19:10
Point Spread: -1½/+106 Boston

WEDNESDAY'S MLB FREE PICK ---Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+106)---

I believe this is a strong spot to back the Red Sox on the Run Line. Boston enters having won six of their last seven and are an impressive 29-16 at home. The Padres are losers of four straight and are just 15-26 on the road. Those home/away splits are a big factor in this play with the two starters on the mount. Boston's Jon Lester is 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA at Fenway Park, while San Diego's Edinson Volquez has a miserable 6.23 ERA and 1.720 WHIP in nine road starts.

I've also spotted a couple key trends that favors the Red Sox to win by more than 1 run tonight. The Padres are just 4-24 in their last 28 games after scoring 1 run or less in two straight games over the last three seasons. The average score in these games were San Diego 2.1 - Opponent 4.6. At the same time Boston is 20-8 in their last 28 after a game where the bullpen didn't allow a run. The average score in those games were Red Sox 5.4 - Opponent 3.6 BET THE RED SOX -1.5!

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