steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 07/02/2013 10:44 AM in Cappers

TUESDAY'S FREE MLB PICK ---Phillies/Pirates UNDER 7.5---

Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh, 07/02/2013 19:05
Total: -105/+7½ Under

TUESDAY'S FREE MLB PICK ---Phillies/Pirates UNDER 7.5---

Look for a low scoring game tonight in Pittsburgh between the Phillies and Pirates. Philadelphia doesn't figure to put much of anything on the scoreboard against Pittsburgh's Jeff Locke, who is 7-1 with a 2.06 ERA over 16 starts and 2-0 with a ridiculous 0.86 ERA and 0.762 WHIP over his last three starts. Locke's only start against the Phillies came earlier this season and he allowed just two hits over six scoreless.

Philadelphia will counter with Jonathan Pettibone, who is coming off back-to-back solid outings. He allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in six innings vs the Mets and only 3 runs on 4 hits in six innings vs the Dodgers. Even if he gives up another 3-4 runs, I still think there's an excellent chance this game finishes under the total.

The UNDER is 12-3 in the Pirates last 15 home games when they are listed with a money line of -125 to -175 and 12-2 over their last 14 home games when they enter with a bullpen that has an ERA under 2.00 over their last 10 games. Adding even more value is the fact that the Phillies have gone UNDER the total in 14 of their last 17 road games vs NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game in the second half of the season (last three years). BET THE UNDER!

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