cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/12/2011 07:15 PM

USC visits rival Cal on Thursday night


Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: USC -3, Total: 55.5

The Cal Bears look for a rare victory over Pac-12 foe USC when the two schools meet in Berkeley on Thursday night.

USC has won seven straight SU (5-2 ATS) against Cal and is 7-2 SU in its past nine road meeting with the Bears. The Trojans crushed the Bears at home last year, leading 42-0 at half and winning 48-14, as Matt Barkley threw for 352 yards and 5 TD, two to Robert Woods. Despite their futility versus the Trojans, the Bears are 17-5 ATS (77%) at home since 2007, and junior QB Zach Maynard (11 TD, 3 INT) should be able to take advantage of a USC passing defense that ranks 98th in the nation, allowing 267 passing YPG. The pick here is CALIFORNIA to win at home.

The FoxSheets show another trend favoring the Bears:

CALIFORNIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The average score was CALIFORNIA 36.0, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 1*).

After throwing two picks in a blowout loss at Arizona State two games ago, Barkley bounced back in a big way against Arizona. He threw for a school-record 468 yards, completing 32-of-39 passes, including four touchdowns. The sophomore Woods caught 14 passes for 255 yards and 2 TD against the Wildcats, and his 149 receiving YPG ranks second in the nation. USC has also done a solid job rushing the football, averaging 155 rushing YPG on 5.1 yards per carry in the past three contests. Defensively, the Trojans are allowing more and more yardage every week, giving up 554 (425 passing) to Arizona. The team has produced only five turnovers this year, posting a minus-5 TO margin, and has a meager two sacks in the past two games.

Cal hung with Oregon for a while last week, leading at the half, but then was outscored 29-0 after halftime in the 43-15 loss. Junior RB Isi Sofele continues to be consistently great, rushing for 119 yards on just 12 carries (9.9 YPC) versus the Ducks. This was his fifth straight game of rushing for at least 80 yards. Sophomore WR Keenan Allen has also been tremendous in each game. After failing to gain 70 yards in the final 11 games of his freshman campaign, Allen already has four 100-yard games this year. In the past two games, he has caught 19 passes for 367 yards and two scores. For the Bears to slow down USC’s offense, they need to somehow put pressure on Barkley. But in three games versus Pac-12 foes this year, Cal has generated just three sacks, and the Trojans are currently tied for 13th in nation in fewest sacks allowed (0.8 per game). Before surrendering 365 rushing yards to Oregon last week, Cal was ranked ninth in the nation in rushing defense (78 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:32 PM

    Hawaii goes for 3rd straight win visiting San Jose St.


    Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
    Line: Hawaii -6, Total: 55

    Hawaii looks to retain its dominance over San Jose State when it travels to the mainland for a Friday night tussle with the Spartans.

    Hawaii has won nine of the past 10 meetings, winning by at least a touchdown in eight of those matchups. San Jose State is not good enough on either side of the ball to hang with the Warriors. The Spartans rank 91st in total offense (348 YPG) and their top RB Brandon Rutley (104 rush YPG) is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out of last week’s game. SJSU ranks 92nd in total defense (415 YPG), and no FBS team has fewer than its three total sacks. This will allow Hawaii star QB Bryant Moniz (560 pass yards in last year’s 41-7 win over SJSU) plenty of time to dissect the field. The pick here is HAWAII to win and cover.

    The FoxSheets shows a three-star trend favoring the Warriors:

    HAWAII is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HAWAII 48.4, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 3*).

    Moniz has thrown for 834 yards, 11 TD and 0 INT in leading his team to 100 points during a two-game win streak over UC Davis and Louisiana Tech. Senior WR Royce Pollard has been the main beneficiary of Moniz’s hot streak, as Pollard has 19 catches for 361 yards and six touchdowns in these two contests. Although this is a pass-first offense, the Warriors still have eight rushing touchdowns, including four by Moniz. Freshman Joey Iosefa had a breakout game last week, rumbling for 99 yards on 16 carries (6.2 YPC). Hawaii isn’t known for its defense, but the stop unit has done some nice things this year, allowing just 327 yards per game (18th-fewest in nation) with 3.8 sacks per game (third-most in nation).

    San Jose State is 3-10 SU in its past 13 WAC home games, but has won two of its past three games this year, scoring 29.3 PPG in this stretch. If it is to win again, somebody will need to run the football effectively with Rutley still on the mend. Last week at BYU, the Spartans gained only 70 yards on 26 carries (2.7 YPC) without their top rusher. QB Matt Faulkner has been middling this season with 4 TD and 4 INT in his five games. He threw two picks last week, and failed to score for the third time this season. In addition to their paltry sack total of three, the Spartans have a pathetic 3.3 Tackles for Loss per game. Only Navy (3.2) has a worse TFL average in the entire country.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/12/2011 07:35 PM

    Trending: College Football Unbeatens

    Through the first six weeks of the season, there are still 13 unbeaten teams remaining. This baker’s dozen is listed below in order of current AP ranking. Our research shows some recent history for several of these teams as unbeatens at this point in the season. We’ve also looked to the FoxSheets, where we found some 3, 4 and even 5-star plays. All of these teams are in action this weekend with the exception of Houston.
    No. 1 LSU TIGERS (6-0)

    This week: At Tennessee
    --The Tigers are just 14-26 ATS (35%) in SEC games over the last five-plus seasons.
    --Les Miles is 8-20 ATS (28.6%, -14.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 29.0, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 2*).


    This week: At Ole Miss
    --Alabama is 6-0 SU for the third time in the past four seasons. On both previous occasions (2008, 2009), they lost their seventh game ATS.
    --Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ALABAMA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (27-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*).

    No. 3 OKLAHOMA SOONERS (5-0)

    This week: At Kansas
    --Play Against: A home team (KANSAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. (31-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.6%, +26.6 units. Rating = 5*).
    --KANSAS is 1-11 ATS (8.3%, -11.1 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 4 straight games since 1992. The average score was KANSAS 14.6, OPPONENT 36.9 - (Rating = 3*).


    This week: Vs. Indiana
    --The Badgers are 5-0 SU for the third time in the last five seasons. On both previous occasions (2007, 2009), they lost their sixth game both SU and ATS.
    --WISCONSIN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WISCONSIN 51.6, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 2*).


    This week: At Colorado State
    --BOISE ST is 53-19 ATS (73.6%, +32.1 Units) after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 44.3, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 3*).
    --BOISE ST is 23-5 ATS (82.1%, +17.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 39.4, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 3*).


    This week: At Texas
    --In 2008, the Cowboys began the season 7-0 SU and 8-0 ATS. The 8-0 ATS start is the longest ATS unbeaten streak to begin the season since the 2008 season.
    --OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.2, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 4*).
    --Last season, the Cowboys ended an 11-game SU losing streak to Texas. They are just 4-8 ATS (33%) in these meetings.


    This week: At Washington State
    --The Cardinal are 11-6 SU (65%) and 12-5 ATS (71%) versus the Cougars since 1992. They are 5-2 SU (71%) and 6-1 ATS (86%) at Washington State in this span.
    --STANFORD is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was STANFORD 43.4, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 5*).

    No. 8 CLEMSON TIGERS (6-0)

    This week: At Maryland
    --The Tigers are 2-3 both SU and ATS (40%) versus the Terrapins over the past five seasons.
    --Ten of 11 games (91%) in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
    --MARYLAND is 12-2 ATS (85.7%, +9.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. The average score was MARYLAND 27.7, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 2*).


    This week: At Michigan State
    --After starting the season 5-0 SU last season, the Wolverines went 0-8 ATS the rest of the way (including bowl game).
    --Michigan is 0-3 both SU and ATS versus Michigan State in the past three seasons.
    --MICHIGAN is 3-15 ATS (16.7%, -13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the past 3 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN 29.1, OPPONENT 33.6 - (Rating = 3*).


    This week: At Virginia
    --Paul Johnson is 32-13 ATS (71.1%, +17.7 Units) in road games in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Johnson 30.7, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 2*).
    --GEORGIA TECH is 2-7 ATS (22%) at VIRGINIA since 1992.


    This week: Vs. Ohio State
    --ILLINOIS is 11-6 (65%) against the spread versus OHIO ST since 1992.
    --Eight of 12 games (67%) in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.


    This week: At Texas Tech
    --The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS (14%) versus Texas Tech since 1992.
    --TEXAS TECH is 18-3 ATS (5.7%, +14.7 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The average score was TEXAS TECH 34.6, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 3*).

    No. 25 HOUSTON COUGARS (6-0)

    This week: BYE

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/13/2011 06:09 PM

Thursday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Diego State - 8:00 PM ET Air Force -7 500

Air Force - Over 59 500

Southern California - 9:00 PM ET Southern California -3 500

California - Under 58.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:10 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/13/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
10/08/11 29-­19-­0 60.42% +­4050 Detail
10/07/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
10/06/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
10/01/11 55-­45-­2 55.00% +­2750 Detail
Totals 89-­69-­2 56.33% +6550

Friday, October 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Hawaii - 9:00 PM ET Hawaii -5 500

San Jose State - Over 55.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:24 PM

Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

While the top schools in the country have been covering as big favorites in the college ranks, there was a little good news for the sports books in pro football.

Much to Fuhrman’s delight, both standalone primetime games actually went ‘under’ the total in the NFL.

After two quick touchdowns from the Atlanta Falcons and Aaron Rodgers standing on the other sideline, the 25-14 win for the Green Bay Packers finished well below the total of 55 last Sunday night. Then, on the huge Monday night home game for the Detroit Lions, their 24-13 victory over the Chicago Bears would have remained ‘under’ the number even if Jay Cutler’s last ditch effort came up with a touchdown.

This week in college football, one of the best matchups is the in-state rivalry between the No. 11 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 17 Michigan State Spartans. Rankings come via the Don Best Linemakers Poll. The Spartans are currently -2½ with the total set at 49. Keep an eye out for weather in this one as early reports call for winds as high as 25 miles per hour.

In the Big 12 contest in Austin, the No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys are set to take on the No. 24 Texas Longhorns. Caesars’ line on the Don Best odds screen sees OSU as a 7½-point road favorite and the total is 64½.

Then on the west coast, the No. 7 Oregon Ducks are a sizable 14½-point favorite over the visiting Arizona State Sun Devils with a total of 66½. ASU is tied for No. 14 on the DB Poll. This line had moved up to 16 but has since come back down. Running back LaMichael James looks to be out with an elbow injury sustained in Oregon’s last outing against the Cal Bears.

In the always unpredictable NFL, there are a couple matchups that unquestionably looked different before the season began.

The 1-4 Philadelphia Eagles will travel to Washington to take on Rex Grossman’s 3-1 Redskins. Read that sentence again because it is no dream for Philly, but reality. Still, the Eagles are a 1½-point favorite on the road. This may be it for Andy Reid’s squad if they cannot find a way to get a victory on Sunday. One has to believe that they will be all in against the ‘Skins or this team may unravel even more than it has already. The total is posted at 47.

Then in what has suddenly become one of the major showdowns in Week 6, the 4-1 San Francisco 49ers travel to Ford Field to face the undefeated Detroit Lions. That dome was rocking last Monday night and San Fran should expect the same type of atmosphere as they come in as 4-point underdogs with a total of 46½. Jim Harbaugh is doing an absolute top-notch coaching job for the Niners and so is his opponent, Jim Schwartz of the Lions.

Finally, this week’s primetime matchups feature a couple of division battles. On Sunday night, the Chicago Bears are -3 at home over the Minnesota Vikings with a total of 41½. Chicago may be getting Minny at a bad time as they Vikings finally found a way to win a week ago.

Monday Night Football on ESPN will close the week out with the New York Jets hosting the winless Miami Dolphins coming off of their bye week. While many have already counted out the Jets, they have had three tough road games in a row for their three losses on the year. Fuhrman is not quite among the doubters as he says, “I still think the Jets are going to be a force in the AFC. You’ve got to start proving it on the field eventually.”

New York is favored by a touchdown with the total set at 43.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:26 PM

Struggling Florida Gators Visit Auburn Tigers

The Florida Gators have gone from national darling to a team in disarray in a span of just two weeks. They look to stop the bleeding when they visit the Auburn Tigers on Saturday night.

The Don Best college football odds have Florida as somewhat surprising 2-point favorites after opening as a pick ‘em. The total is 49 ½-points and ESPN will broadcast at 7:00 p.m. (ET) from Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Gators (4-2 straight up, 3-2-1 against the spread) were ranked No. 12 in both the AP and Don Best Linemakers Poll before the fateful October 1 home game against Alabama. They not only lost 38-10 as 3 ½-point underdogs, but saw quarterback John Brantley (ankle) get injured.

The senior Brantley was replaced by true freshman Jacoby Brissett last week in Baton Rouge and the results were a predictable 41-11 loss as 14-point ‘dogs. LSU has one of the fiercest defenses in the country and Brissett was picked off twice while limited to just 94 passing yards.

Florida just barely dropped out of the AP top-25, but is still No. 19 at Don Best.

Brantley is out again this week and coach Will Muschamp hasn’t said whether Brissett or fellow true freshman Jeff Driskel would start. Driskel couldn’t play last week with an ankle injury and both could see action, although Brissett is likely to start.

Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis had to be innovative even when the veteran Brantley was playing. A lot of his completions were underneath routes to running back Chris Rainey. The game-plan should be conservative no matter who is under center.

Weis would be happy to get the running game going with the explosive Rainey (467 yards) and Jeff Demps (324 yards). The former was held to 52 yards rushing last week on 13 carries, while the latter had two carries for no yards while he battled his own ankle injury.

Demps is listed as probable, with Mike Gillislee (56 yards last week) another option. Auburn’s run defense can certainly be exploited at 201.8 YPG (ranked a whopping 103rd).

Florida’s offense has averaged just 217.5 total yards the last two weeks after 462 in the first four. Tougher competition certainly played a part, but this offense is in shambles.

The ‘over’ is still 4-0 in Florida’s last four games, with the defense surrendering 39.5 PPG the last two after nine PPG in the first four. There’s no excuse for the ‘D’ to be playing so poorly, but the unit seems deflated like the rest of the team.

Auburn (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) got some great news this week when the NCAA cleared it of ‘major infractions’ in the Cam Newton recruiting saga. The overall investigation of the school has also been concluded.

The news on the field wasn’t as good with a 38-14 loss at Arkansas last Saturday as 10-point ‘dogs. Auburn actually led 14-7 at the end of the first quarter before Arkansas ended on a 31-0 run. That ended an 8-0 ATS streak in conference games.

The Tigers also dropped from No. 15 to No. 24 in the AP after the loss. The Don Best poll has never been high on them, not ranking in the top-30 even when they were No. 15 in the AP.

The breaking Newton news is ironic with coach Gene Chizik still trying to replace the Heisman winner. Junior Barrett Trotter will get the start again, but his already mediocre stats are declining rapidly, going 6-of-19 for 81 yards against Arkansas. That was after a 112-yard effort in the 16-13 upset win at South Carolina the week before.

Freshman Kiehl Frazier is the other option. He’s a dangerous runner and provides a different challenge to the Florida defense. However, he has just five pass attempts all year, and two picks last week in four throws, so he should continue to be a change-of-pace guy.

Auburn relies on the 27th-ranked rushing attack (204 YPG), with sophomore Michael Dyer a threat to go over 100 yards every game and Onterio McCalebb a very good sidekick.

Florida’s run defense is allowing 115 YPG (ranked 32nd), but Alabama’s Trent Richardson (181 yards) and LSU’s Spencer Ware (109 yards) were both very effective the last two weeks.

Auburn is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the teams dating back to 2001. The last one was in 2007 when Tim Tebow was handed a rare loss, 20-17 in Gainesville.

The weather forecast is very nice, clear and in the 60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:28 PM

Oregon Ducks Host Arizona State In Pac-12 Betting Action

The Arizona State Sun Devils head to Eugene this Saturday night to face the Oregon Ducks in what could potentially be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 2.

Oregon is currently a 14-point favorite at home on the Don Best odds screen. The 10:15 p.m. (ET) kickoff is the latest start of any on Saturday’s card, and the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

With USC ineligible to represent the Pac-12 South in the inaugural Pac-12 title game, Arizona State at this point looks like a runaway favorite to win the division. Oregon’s path in the Pac-12 North is a bit tougher with the big road game against Stanford looming, but the potential for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship adds even more intrigue to this already exciting matchup.

This week’s Don Best Linemakers Poll is giving both Oregon and Arizona State more respect than the AP Poll. Oregon is ranked No. 7 (compared to No. 9 in the AP), and Arizona State is tied with Georgia at No. 14 (compared to No. 18 in the AP).

Oregon (4-1) cruised to an easy win and cover in a 43-15 victory over Cal last week as a 24-point favorite, but the Ducks didn’t escape unscathed. LaMichael James, who turned in his third straight 200-yard rushing game with 239 rushing yards through three quarters, injured his elbow late in the game and could miss a few weeks.

James is averaging over 170 yards per game on the ground, tops in the country. That number is even more remarkable when you see he's reaching the figure on less than 20 carries per game for nearly 9-yards per tote.

Even without James, the Ducks have plenty of fire in the backfield behind Darron Thomas with Kenjon Barner and D’Anthony Thomas. But in a game that figures to be a shootout, being without your best weapon is never a good thing.

Arizona State (5-1) took a stranglehold on the Pac-12 South and shook some road demons with a 35-14 win at Utah last week. The Sun Devils were just 2-8 straight up in their previous 10 road games.

Quarterback Brock Osweiler is the key to this matchup for the Sun Devils. With 1677 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, Osweiler has developed into a star on offense this season, but this will easily be the most hostile environment he’s faced this year.

Against a vulnerable Oregon defense, Osweiler could give ASU a chance to pull off the upset, but he’ll need to be mistake-free.

Last season in Tempe, the Sun Devils outgained the Ducks 597 yards to 385, but still lost 42-31 in a bizarre game in which they turned the ball over seven times. Arizona State narrowly picked up the cover as a 12 ½-point underdog in that one; it was the first time ASU covered a spread against Oregon since 2004.

The Ducks are 5-1 ATS and 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with the Sun Devils.

The total has gone ‘over’ in six of Arizona State’s last eight games and five of Oregon’s last seven games at home. The total for Saturday’s game is currently set for 66 ½.

Cloudy and cool is the forecast for Eugene on Saturday. There's a 20 percent chance of rain and it will be in the mid-50s for kickoff.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:30 PM

Oklahoma Sooners At Defenseless Kansas Jayhawks

The first BCS rankings for this season are due out on Sunday, and it is doubtful that the Oklahoma Sooners can help their case for the top spot much when then visit the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday night.

The unbeaten Sooners (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) sit at No. 3 in the AP Top 25 and No. 2 in the Don Best Linemakers Poll while they have earned the respect of the coaches as the No. 1 team in the country in the USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll.

ESPN2 will have the kickoff from Memorial Stadium in Lawrence at 9:15 p.m. (ET).

Oklahoma opened as a 35-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has been bet up as high as 36 ½. The total has also seen movement in the upward direction from 71 to 72 ½ at some sportsbooks, the second-highest number on the board behind another Big 12 matchup between Texas A&M and Baylor (77).

The Sooners are coming off an impressive 55-17 rout of Texas in their annual Red River Rivalry game last Saturday, as quarterback Landry Jones continued his bid for the Heisman Trophy with 367 passing yards and three touchdowns. He has failed to throw for that many yards in one game this season, finishing with 199 in a 23-13 victory at No. 18 Florida State on September 17.

Jones will have an excellent opportunity to carve up the worst defense in the country and pad his numbers against the nation’s worst defense. Kansas (2-3, 0-2) is surrendering 49.4 points and 556 yards per game, including nearly 333 through the air.

The Jayhawks have lost their first two conference games, including a 70-28 thumping at Oklahoma State last Saturday. They have failed to cover the spread in their last three games and have seen the ‘over’ cash in all five this year. Cowboys starting QB Brandon Weeden and backup Clint Chelf combined to throw for 494 yards and seven touchdowns.

Kansas has dropped the last six meetings with Oklahoma, going 2-4 against the spread. However, the average margin of defeat in those games is 21.5 points, with the biggest win decided by 31 and the Sooners scoring a high of 45.

The teams did not play each other last year, with the Sooners earning a 35-13 victory in the last meeting two years ago. Jones was just a freshman in that game and threw for 252 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Senior wide receiver Ryan Broyles had 11 catches for 121 yards against Kansas and needs just four more to pass Purdue’s Taylor Stubblefield as the NCAA’s career receptions leader.

The weather forecast for Lawrence on Saturday calls for a high temperature of 79 under sunny skies.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:32 PM

Ole Miss Rebels Tackle No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

The No. 1 team in the Don Best Linemakers Poll heads out on the road this weekend before the first installment of the BCS standings is released on Sunday.

Alabama (6-0) and Ole Miss (2-3) are set to square off Saturday night at 6:00 (ET) with ESPN2 providing the broadcast from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Oddsmakers opened up the Crimson Tide as 24 ½-point road favorites in the betting odds and that number has moved up by a full point in most spots.

The total has settled in at 44 ½.

The Crimson Tide will be traveling away from Tuscaloosa for the third time this year, covering both previous opportunities as road favorites in capturing wins over Penn State (27-11) and Florida (38-10). Saturday will be the 59th meeting between the two sides, but just the 10th time Alabama has played Ole Miss in Oxford, with the last being a 22-3 victory for the road team as 3½-point favorites in 2009.

Head coach Nick Saban usually has his squad cranked up during the month of October, posting a 15-1 record since the 2007 campaign. Over that span, the Crimson Tide have outscored opponents by a 410-208 margin.

Running back Trent Richardson is the star offensively and a Heisman Trophy candidate, leading the team with 729 rushing yards, which is actually ahead of former star Mark Ingram’s pace (659 yards) when he captured the award in 2009.

On the other side of the ball, the defense is the real star of the show, holding opponents to just 191.3 total yards. Alabama’s stop unit also ranks first nationally in scoring defense, allowing just seven points a game.

Bettors will find that the Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS over the last two-plus seasons and the ‘under’ is 15-14 over that span.

Ole Miss snapped a two-game losing streak with a 38-28 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs as 3 ½-point road underdogs on Oct. 1, while the game went above the posted total of 55. The Rebels won the statistical battle by a single yard in that effort, but have been out-gained by triple digits in their other four games, resulting in a 658-yard disparity.

This week’s contest will be the fourth following a bye during the Houston Nutt era, and the team is 1-2 in the situation with both losses coming to Alabama in 2008 and 2010. It’s important to note that the Rebels covered both of those opportunities as underdogs of 12 ½ and 20 points respectively.

Last year, Ole Miss faced five top-25 foes and lost all five. Before that five-game skid, the Rebels last knocked off four of their last five ranked opponents, including two wins over top-10 teams.

Randall Mackey has replaced Zack Stoudt under center, throwing for 214 yards and a touchdown versus the Bulldogs, while running back Jeff Scott ran for a career-high 138 yards.

The host has a great chance of covering the number in this SEC matchup, posting a 4-1 ATS mark in the last five meetings in Mississippi.

Weather forecasts suggest clear skies and game-time temperatures in the low-70s. A perfect night for football in the South.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:37 PM

Hawaii at San Jose St.

October 14, 2011

This week’s edition of Friday Night Lights takes us to San Jose where Hawaii (3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) will take on the Spartans at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Most betting shops opened the Warriors as seven-point favorites with a total of 55. As of late Thursday afternoon, however, the number was down to six and the total was up to 56.

Greg McMackin’s team is coming off an open date that was preceded by a 44-26 win at Louisiana Tech. Senior quarterback Bryant Moniz connected on 34-of-55 throws for 410 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. On back-to-back plays midway through the third quarter, Hawaii got a pair of touchdowns on a pick-six by Richard Torres and a scoop and score from Tank Hopkins.

Hawaii won outright in Ruston as a four-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a payout in the plus-160 range.

For the season, Moniz has a 15/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has also rushed for four TDs. He is completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 1,578 yards. Moniz’s favorite target is senior WR Royce Pollard, who has 33 receptions for 550 yards and six TDs.

San Jose St. (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) has been a steady money maker since its disastrous Week 1 performance. The Spartans got spanked at Stanford 57-3 in the opener but since then, they have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

Mike MacIntyre’s squad picked up a pair of wins vs. New Mexico St. (34-24) and at Colorado St. (38-31), but it came up on the short end of a 29-16 decision last week at BYU. The Spartans did take the cash, though, as 14 ½-point underdogs.

San Jose St. faced the Cougars without a pair of its best offensive players, running back Brandon Rutley and offensive guard Fred Koloto. While Koloto remained ‘questionable’ as of early Thursday night, Rutley was upgraded to ‘probable’ and is expected to start. Rutley has rushed for 519 yards and six touchdowns on 91 carries.

San Jose St. QB Matt Faulkner threw for 255 yards against BYU but was intercepted twice. For the year, Faulkner has a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. Faulkner has a pair of excellent weapons in TE Ryan Otten and WR Noel Grigsby.

Grigsby has a team-high 39 receptions for 336 yards, while Otten has 24 catches for a team-high 372 yards and three TD grabs.

During McMackin’s four-year tenure, Hawaii owns a 5 -2 spread record as a road favorite. Meanwhile, San Jose St. has gone 3-2 ATS in five games as a home underdog on MacIntyre’s watch.

The ‘over’ is 3-3 overall for the Spartans, 1-1 in their home games. The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Warriors, 2-1 in their road assignments.

When these WAC rivals met last year, Hawaii cruised to a 41-7 win as a 30-point home favorite. Moniz threw for 560 yards and three TDs.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--After Thursday's practice in Oxford, Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt announced the one-game suspension of RB Branon Bolden, starting OG Alex Washington, starting center A.J. Hawkins and reserve WR Philander Moore. The Rebels are hosting Alabama, the top team in my Power Rankings, on Saturday. They were 26-point underdogs at most spots already. After the suspensions were announced, most books adjusted to 27 1/2.

--Wake Forest owns a 16-7-1 spread record as a home underdog during Jim Grobe’s 11-year tenure. As of late Thursday afternoon, the Demon Deacons were 6 1/2-point underdogs for Saturday’s crucial ACC showdown vs. Va. Tech.

--The ‘over’ is 5-1 for Ga. Tech, but the ‘under’ is 4-1 for Virginia. The Cavs host the Yellow Jackets on Saturday as seven-point home underdogs. The total is 55 ½.

--Oklahoma St. has covered the spread in eight straight road favorite roles. The Cowboys are laying 7 ½ points Saturday at Texas. The Longhorns are home underdogs for just the third time since 2001. They are 0-2 ATS in the two previous spots.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
10/14/2011 07:39 PM

Oklahoma St. tries to stay unbeaten at Texas


Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -7.5, Total: 64.5

No. 22 Texas tries to hand No. 6 Oklahoma State its first loss of the season when the Cowboys visit Austin on Saturday.

OSU hopes to repeat last year’s performance in Austin, when it snapped a 12-game losing skid to Texas, winning 33-16 behind 409 passing yards from Brandon Weeden. The senior QB had thrown 6 INT in his first three games this year, but he has been nearly flawless in two Big 12 games, completing 71-of-88 passes (81%) for 726 yards, 7 TD and 0 INT. The Longhorns QB duo of David Ash and Case McCoy combined to go 20-of-36 for 223 yards, 1 TD and four turnovers in the 55-17 loss to Oklahoma. Although the young Longhorns will keep this close for a while in their home stadium, the superior OKLAHOMA STATE offense will eventually pull away and cover the spread.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends give more backing to the Cowboys:

OKLAHOMA STATE is 18-2 ATS (90.0%, +15.8 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 36.5, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 5*).

OKLAHOMA STATE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.2, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 4*).

And this four-star FoxSheets trends expects the UNDER to be the correct side bet:

Mike Gundy is 11-1 UNDER (91.7%, +9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 as the coach of OKLAHOMA STATE. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 34.3, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 4*).

The Cowboys amassed 532 yards in the win over Texas last year, and had a 30-point lead in the third quarter. Star WR Justin Blackmon was Weeden’s usual favorite target, hauling in nine catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. Weeden, who turns 28 years old this week, ranks third in the nation in total offense (363 YPG), while Blackmon is fifth among FBS receivers in catches (9.2 per game). In last week’s 70-28 annihilation of Kansas, Weeden was 24-of-28 with five touchdowns in the first half. Although the passing game has been clicking (431 YPG, second in nation), the running game has certainly not, as OSU has gained 152 yards on 62 carries (2.5 YPC) in two Big 12 games. RB Joseph Randle started the year with three 100-yard games, but has only 106 yards on 3.8 YPC against the pair of Big 12 opponents. Sophomore RB Jeremy Smith has scored a rushing touchdown in nine straight games. The defense has been extremely opportunistic, creating 16 turnovers in the past three weeks. That is a big reason why the Cowboys have a four-game ATS winning streak.

Texas is 22-3 SU all-time against Oklahoma State. For that record to improve, the offense needs to do a much better job of moving the football. The Horns rushed 45 times for 36 yards against Oklahoma and turned the ball over five times, three of which were returned for Sooners touchdowns. Freshman RB Malcolm Brown (76 rushing YPG) should be able to find some space against a Cowboys rushing defense ranked 75th in the nation. On defense, the Longhorns must find some semblance of a pass rush. They rank 91st among FBS teams in sacks (1.4 per game) and 87th in Tackles for Loss (5.0 per game).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: