marksmoneymakers Posts:29758 Followers:142
05/04/2013 04:15 PM


Boston at Texas
The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's 7-0 loss and build on their 5-1 record in their last last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Boston is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140).


Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.908; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.059
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); N/A

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Milwaukee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.090; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.950
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under

Game 955-956: Washington at Pittsburgh (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.936; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.278
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Under

Game 957-958: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 14.581; Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.145
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+195); Over

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 13.619; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.134
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under

Game 961-962: Arizona at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 16.244; San Diego (Richard) 15.450
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Magill) 15.079; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.146
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 15.525; NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.450
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 967-968: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.575; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.205
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over

Game 969-970: Seattle at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.122; Toronto (Dickey) 14.511
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at LA Angels (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Garcia) 14.579; LA Angels (Hanson) 14.206
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 14.810; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.409
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-145); Under

Game 975-976: Detroit at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.091; Houston (Harrell) 13.574
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185); Over

Game 977-978: Boston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.616; Texas (Ogando) 14.711
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Under

Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 16.254; Colorado (Garland) 16.601
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over

marksmoneymakers Posts:29758 Followers:142
05/04/2013 04:17 PM

Dave Essler MLB ML - Saturday, May 4 2013 8:40PM

ML 962 SD PADRES (+110) vs 961 ARI double-dime bet

marksmoneymakers Posts:29758 Followers:142
05/04/2013 04:19 PM


100* D'backs -120

100* Rays -130

50* Braves -135

marksmoneymakers Posts:29758 Followers:142
05/04/2013 04:23 PM

Joe Gavazzi Saturday, May 4, 2013


LA Dodgers (Magill) at San Francisco (Vogelsong) (-135) 9:05 PM ET

4% San Francisco (Vogelsong)

A quick look at the numbers for Vogelsong this season implies a lack of confidence. There is a 6.23 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In his most recent outing, he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits with 3 walks in 5 IP. But the site of Dodger Blue indicates a return to form. In 7 starts vs. the Dodgers, Vogelsong has a 1.80 ERA. And it is All Systems Go for the other factors in this contest. Magill comes off his Major League debut in which he allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits with 7 Ks in 6 2/3 IP. This bureau has had great success over the years fading a pitcher on the road following his Major League debut at home. The defending Champs are again playing with momentum. They have won 4 consecutive games including a walk off 2-1 win last night. The Giants are 12-4/win including 8-2 if playing at home. Combined with last night’s results, it sets up what has been a very strong situation in MLB in 2013. In the month of April, greater than or equal to .500 home teams off a win were 84-36. .500 or worse road teams off a loss were 31-68. If this event occurred in the same game, the record for home favorites to -2.00 was 47-17 with an average lay price of -1.35, good for 22 net units of profit. Strong situational play on the Giants today.

Seattle (Iwakuma) at Toronto (Dickey) (-130) 1:05 PM ET

4% Seattle (Iwakuma) (+120)

Our perception/reality game of the day coincides with our underdog play of the day. In the first game of this series, Seattle won 4-0 Friday night. That means the Blue Jays have been outscored 17-2 in losing their last 3 games. Now, the biggest underachiever in MLB is 10-20, 6-11 at home. Yet they are still favored because of the reputation of Dickey, last year’s National League Cy Young winner. But his excellence from last season has not transferred to the American League. Pitching with inflammation in his neck and upper back, Dickey has allowed 7 runs and 6 walks in 13 IP in going 0-2 in his last 2 outings. For the season, he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The reality comes in the person of Iwakuma. For the season, Iwakuma has a 1.67 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 37/5 KBB. In his lone appearance against Toronto last season, he allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 13 Ks in 8 IP of a 4-1 victory. Last night’s win boosted Seattle’s series record to 6-1 vs. Toronto. We play the better team with better starter as underdog.

Baltimore (Garcia) at LA Angles (Hanson) (-150) 4:05 PM ET
3% Baltimore (Garcia) (+140)

Hanson has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP but he has pitched well in his last 2 outings since returning from bereavement leave. In those games, he has allowed just 2 runs in 12 IP. In addition, in a pair of appearances against Baltimore, Hanson has a 1.64 ERA. But those gaudy numbers are not about to get us to the Angels side. LAA found an acorn last night when Vargas led them to a 4-0 victory vs. Baltimore, his first quality game of the season. But Baltimore is 5 ½ games better than LAA and has 3 more road wins than the Angels have home wins. Most importantly, Baltimore is 8-3 following a loss this season. They send veteran Freddy Garcia to the mound for his first start of the season. Garcia will be pitching for his 6th team in the last 15 years. Last season while pitching for NYY, he was 7-6 with a 5.20 ERA. But his work in the Minors this season showed a record of 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA including a 1.69 ERA in his last 2 outings. And check out this phenomenal history, Garcia is 17-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 29 starts vs. LAA. Baltimore a clear choice for this underdog price.

Chicago WS (Axelrod) at Kansas City (Guthrie) (-140) 7:10 PM ET
5% Kansas City (Guthrie) (-140)

I am still not buying the White Sox or Axelrod who is 0-1 with a 3.95 ERA but less than stellar 16/10 KBB. Far prefer the underrated Royals, who stand 15-10 for the year, 8-4 on this field with their hidden gem, Guthrie. In Guthrie’s last 16 starts, he is 8-0 with a 2.44 ERA. Since being traded to KC, the Royals are 5-0 in Guthrie’s starts vs. CWS. In that time frame, Guthrie has a 0.50 ERA with a 28/3 KBB. Ride the Royals momentum as they are 6-2 home/win.

Boston (Lackey) at Texas (Ogando) (-140) 8:00 PM ET

4% Texas (Ogando) (-140)

No American League team has played better than .600 ball in the last 3 seasons. It is only the end of the 5th week of play but the Red Sox are the only team in MLB who is more than 1 game better than .600 as we enter today’s play. As I mentioned in last night’s winning selection with Texas, the Red Sox return to the norm is imminent. This in the face of recent records of 15-5, 7-2 and the fact they are 6-2 following a loss. For today, they send over-the-hill starter Lackey to the mound. In 10 games vs. Texas, Lackey has a 9.34 ERA and a .367 BAA. After erupting for a season best 18 hits last night to break their recent offensive mini-funk, look for Texas to tee off on Lackey early and often. The 7-0 victory against the Red Sox last night increased the Rangers record to 9-3 in this series. Tonight they send Ogando to the mound with a 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 27/12 KBB. That record has been virtually all on the road. Tonight he makes just his 2nd home start. His first outing from this mound saw him allow just 1 run on 3 hits in 5 1/3 IP victory against Tampa Bay.

marksmoneymakers Posts:29758 Followers:142
05/04/2013 04:24 PM


Hot pitchers
-- Cingrani is 2-0, 1.50 in his first three MLB starts.
-- Gallardo is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Wainwright is 4-1, 1.64 in his last five outings.
-- Locke is 3-0, 1.99 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 1-1, 2.33 in his last four starts.
-- Arizona is 5-0 when Corbin starts (3-0, 1.89).
-- McGill allowed two runs in 6.2 IP in his first '13 start, vs Milwaukee.

-- Colon is 2-0, 2.07 in two road starts this season. Hughes is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Correia is 3-1, 2.23 in his five starts this season.
-- Dickey is 2-2, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Hanson is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Axelrod is 0-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Scherzer is 2-0, 3.71 in his last four starts. Harrell is 3-0, 1.82 in his last four outings.
-- Lackey is 1-1, 2.61 in two starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Samardzija is 0-4, 4.55 in his last five starts.
-- Strasburg is 0-4, 5.04 in his last five starts.
-- Fernandez is 0-2, 7.62 in his last three starts.
-- Niese is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts. Teheran has a 5.93 RA in five starts this season.
-- Richard is 0-2, 13.51 in his last couple starts.
-- Vogelsong is 1-2, 6.82 in five starts this season.

-- Price is 1-1, 5.63 in his last five starts. Garland is 0-2, 7.20 in his last couple starts.

-- Kazmir is 0-1, 8.64 in two starts this season.
-- Saunders is 0-3, 12.51 in his three road starts.
-- 36-year old Garcia is making his first '13 start; he was 0-1, 7.64 in his last four starts LY.
-- Ogando is 0-2, 7.04 in his last three starts.

-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Cub games.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in Philly's last fourteen home games.
-- Ten of last thirteen Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last six Atlanta home games stayed under total.
-- 12 of 17 games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Five of last seven San Diego home games went over total.
-- 10 of last 13 Dodger games went over the total.

-- Last four Colorado games went over the total.

-- Six of last nine Seattle road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 24-5 in last 29 Oakland games.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Kansas City games.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Houston games.
-- Seven of last ten Baltimore games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won seven of their last nine home games.
-- St Louis won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Padres won seven of their last nine games.
-- San Francisco won eight of its last ten home games.

-- A's won four of their last five games. Bronx won nine of its last twelve home games.
-- Kansas City won seven of its last ten games. White Sox won four of their last six road games.
-- Indians won last five games, outscoring foes 46-11.
-- Boston won seven of its last nine games.
-- Detroit won eight of its last ten games.
-- Orioles won ten of their last sixteen games.

Cold teams
-- Washington is 6-8 on the road this year.
-- Milwaukee lost its last three games, allowing 18 runs.
-- Cubs lost nine of their first thirteen home games. Cincinnati lost 10 of its last thirteen on the road.
-- Miami lost 11 of its 14 road games. Phillies are 8-10 in their last 18 games overall.
-- Mets lost six of their last eight games. Atlanta lost seven of last nine.
-- Arizona lost its last four games, allowing 24 runs.
-- Dodgers lost three of their last four games.

-- Rockies lost eight of last twelve games. Tampa Bay is 5-11 on road.

-- Twins are 3-6 in their last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost 10 of their last 13 games- they were outscored 17-2 in last three. Seattle lost seven of its last ten road games.
-- Texas lost four of its last six games.
-- Houston lost 15 of its last 19 games.
-- Angels lost seven of their last ten games.

-- Cin-Chi-- Eight of last ten Porter games went over the total.
-- StL-Mil-- Favorites won 11 of last 14 Miller games.
-- Wsh-Pitt-- Favorites won last six Hirschbeck games.
-- Mia-Phil-- Under is 8-5-1 in last fourteen Fairchild games.
-- NY-Atl-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Nauert games.
-- Az-SD-- Favorites won last five Bellino games.
-- LA-SF-- Underdogs of less than +$200 are 21-9 in last 30 Johnson tilts.

-- TB-Colo-- Favorites won eight of last ten Fagan games.

-- A's-NY-- Six of last eight Conroy games stayed under the total.
-- Min-Clev-- Six of last seven Timmons games went over the total.
-- Sea-Tor-- Home side won 13 of last 16 Hickox games.
-- Balt-LA-- Favorites won last five Bell games.
-- Det-Hst-- Visitors won nine of last twelve Barry games.
-- Bos-Tex-- Last four Davis games went over the total.