Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Pick 03/23/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-03-23

Pacific Division foes will clash when the Sacramento Kings (35-36) meet the Phoenix Suns (17-56) at the Golden 1 Center. Sacramento is a 9.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 230 points. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 23, 2019, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona.

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings Free Preview

In the Suns’ last matchup, they were blown out by the Detroit Pistons, 118-98. They were not able to cover as 7-point underdogs. With 26 points on 8-for-17 shooting, Devin Booker was the game’s high scorer. Detroit had an offensive rebounding percentage of 40.4 (above their season average of 24.7). Phoenix, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of getting and making free throws (21-26; 80.8 percent). The two teams combined to score 216 points, which was just under the O/U total of 217.5.

The Kings will look to keep it rolling after easily covering the 8.5-point spread against the Dallas Mavericks in their last outing, 116-100. Sacramento’s Marvin Bagley III was a key piece with 22 points and 12 rebounds. Sacramento dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.1 (above their season average of 22.6) and a free throw rate of 0.241 (above their season average of 0.179). Dallas recorded marks of 16.4 and 0.174, respectively, for those same stats. The two squads collectively scored 216 points, which was under the projected point total of 229.

Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play a key role in this meeting. Sacramento commits the fifth-fewest miscues in the league (turnover percentage of 12.6 percent), while the disruptive defense of Phoenix forces the fourth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.8 percent).

Of Phoenix’s 73 games, 42 have finished under the projected point total, while 35 of Sacramento’s 71 games have finished over the projected point total. The Kings hold a substantial advantage in terms of straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 35-36 SU and 42-28-1 ATS, while the Suns are 17-56 SU and 33-40 ATS.

These two teams have already met three times this year, with the Kings winning three of them. Bagley III scored a game-high 32 points in the most recent matchup, in which the Kings beat the Suns 117-104, covering as 9-point favorites. He also had seven rebounds. The two teams combined for 221 points, which was 10 points below the projected point total of 231 points. The Kings played a nearly flawless game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.381 and a turnover percentage of 10.4. For those same stats, the Suns put up marks of 0.242 and 14.0, respectively.

Suns at Kings Betting Prediction

Pick: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under


Betting Notes:

The Suns rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (29.7) while the Kings rank 28th (34.2).

Sacramento ranks 14th in rebounds per game (45.6) while Phoenix ranks 28th (40.4).

Sacramento averages 8.5 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Phoenix ranks 28th in steals allowed per game (9.1).

Phoenix averages 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 17th in the NBA. Sacramento ranks 18th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).

Phoenix is 17-20 ATS on the road, while Sacramento is 24-12-1 ATS at home.

The total has gone under in 19 of the Suns’ 37 road games, while 21 of the Kings’ 37 home games have gone under.

In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Phoenix is 5-1 and Sacramento is 10-0.

In games where they score over 100 points, the Kings are 33-32 and the Suns are 16-36.

The Kings rank 14th in second chance points per game (13.4) while the Suns rank last in second chance points allowed per game (15.3).

Sacramento ranks second in points off turnovers per game (19.5) while Phoenix ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.8).

The Kings rank first in fast break points per game (21.3) while the Suns rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (16.2).

The Kings rank 11th in assists per game (25.5) while the Suns rank 25th in assists allowed per game (25.9).

Sacramento averages 51.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Phoenix ranks last in points allowed in the paint per game (52.8).

Bettings Trends:

Sacramento is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push in its last five games.

Over its last five outings, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.

The Kings have outscored opponents by an average of 5.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Sacramento has been defeated by an average of 0.7 points.

During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (0.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.4 points per game (2.3 above their season average).

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