Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction 01/03/18

 
Wednesday, 01/03/2018 at 09:05 pm PHOENIX (15-25) at DENVER (20-17)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Results Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P FG% FT% 3PT% FG% FT% 3PT%
719PHOENIX 218 105.9 112.7 15-25 19-19-2 21-18-1 44.4% 75.7% 33.8% 46.6% 77.2% 36.3%
720DENVER -11 107.9 105.9 20-17 18-18-1 17-20-0 46.6% 74.9% 36.4% 47.3% 75.2% 36.8%

Last Updated: 2018-01-03

The Denver Nuggets (19-17) will be 11-point favorites at home in Pepsi Center when they challenge the Phoenix Suns (15-24). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018.

Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

In their last contest, the Nuggets lost to the Philadelphia 76ers, 107-102, while the Suns barely escaped the Atlanta Hawks, 104-103.

Phoenix played a nearly perfect game. They had a solid effective field goal percentage of 0.552 (above their season average of 0.494) and a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.226). For those same stats, Atlanta was 0.471 and 0.241, respectively. Denver, on the other hand, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (25-34; 73.5 percent). Denver’s Nikola Jokic had a solid performance, recording 19 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Devin Booker, meanwhile played a key role for Phoenix with 34 points, seven assists and five rebounds.

Expect Denver to dominate the offensive glass in this battle. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2 percent), while Phoenix ranks 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.0 percent). Moreover, the Suns rank fourth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.227), while the Nuggets rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.167).

Of the Suns’ 38 games that accepted bets, 17 have finished under, 20 have finished over and one has pushed. Phoenix heads into the contest with records of 15-24 straight up (SU) and 19-18-1 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Nuggets’ 36 games, 20 have finished under the total. Further, Denver is 19-17 SU and 17-18-1 ATS.

The Suns’ T.J. Warren has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 24.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Trey Lyles has averaged 15.8 points and 6.8 rebounds during that same time frame for the Nuggets.

The Nuggets dominated this series last year, winning all four games. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 123-112. Denver made good use of their 42 trips to the charity stripe, converting on 37 of them (88.1 percent). Phoenix, on the other hand, was 24-32 (75.0 percent). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Nuggets average 4.6 blocks per game, which ranks 20th in the league. The Suns rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.3).

Denver averages 15.4 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. Phoenix ranks 28th in second chance points allowed per game (14.2).

The Nuggets rank seventh in assists per game (23.3) while the Suns rank 29th (20.5).

Denver averages 14.2 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Phoenix ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).

Denver ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.8) while Phoenix ranks 25th (15.2).

The Nuggets average 48.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Suns rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.2).

The Nuggets rank 14th in steals per game (7.7) while the Suns rank 27th (6.6).

Denver averages 30.5 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Phoenix ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (27.4).

Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while Phoenix ranks 25th (45.2).

When holding opponents under 100 points, Phoenix is 5-2 and Denver is 10-2.

In games where they reach the century mark, the Nuggets are 16-11 and the Suns are 11-15.

Phoenix is 11-6-1 ATS on the road, while Denver is 9-7 ATS at home.

The total has gone over in 10 of the Suns’ 18 road games, while 9 of the Nuggets’ 16 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 3-2.

In their last five games, Denver has 4 unders and 1 over, while Phoenix has 3 overs and 2 unders.

During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 96.8 points per game (9.0 below their season average).

The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.8, down from 6.3 for the season.

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