The National League Championship Series in the MLB will start with this tilt on Tuesday, October 18, and here you can take a look at the best Phillies vs. Padres betting pick and odds.

Philadelphia and San Diego will play the first of a best-of-seven NLCS series at Petco Park, and the Padres are -130 moneyline favorites on MyBookie Sportsbook, while the total is set at 6.5 runs. These NL rivals have met seven times this season before this series, and the Phillies lead 4-3.

Phillies eliminated the reigning champions

The Philadelphia Phillies swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card series in two games on the road and then made another upset with a 3-1 series victory over the reigning World Series champions Atlanta Braves. After winning one of two games in Atlanta, Philadelphia won both duels at home and did it in style, allowing four runs in total and scoring 17 in return.

In Game 4 and the final of the NLDS, the Phillies dominated with 13 hits opposite Atlanta’s four. Philly had a 7-2 lead after the opening six innings and it was evident that the Braves are not going to defend their title. The Phillies won 8-3 in the end. Brandon Marsh hit a three-run homer in the 2nd and led the game with three RBIs, while J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper contributed with two RBIs apiece. Noah Syndergaard opened the game and lasted 3.0 innings, allowing one run on one hit with three strikeouts and a walk. Brad Hand was credited with a win, the first postseason win of his career.

At the moment, the Phillies still didn’t name their starting pitcher for Game 1 of the NLCS against San Diego on Tuesday.

Padres won three straight against the Dodgers to reach the NLCS

The San Diego Padres first upset the New York Mets in the NLWC in three games on the road and then defeated the biggest favorites for the World Series title and their divisional foes Los Angeles Dodgers. Just like the Phillies, the Padres took a break on the road and returned home with a win in their pocket and then secured both wins to make it 3-1 in the series. In this four-game series, the Padres allowed only 12 runs to the Dodgers, the best offensive team in the MLB.

The Dodgers were close to tying the series as they had a 3-0 lead entering the bottom 7th in Game 4, but San Diego scored five runs and got a 5-3 victory. Jake Cronenworth led the team with two RBIs, while Ha-Seong Kim, Juan Soto, and Austin Nola added one apiece. Joe Musgrove was strong across 6.0 innings as he surrendered two runs on six hits with eight strikeouts and three walks. Tim Hill got the first postseason victory of his career.

Yu Darvish (13-8, 2-0 in the playoffs) will start Game 1 of the NLCS against Philadelphia on Tuesday. The 36-year-old right-hander started 30 games this year and owns a 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 197/37 K/BB ratio over 194.2 innings of work.

Trends:

Philadelphia:

  • 5-12 in the last 17 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower
  • 1-5 in the last six vs. National League West rivals

San Diego:

  • 4-1 in the last five playoff home games
  • 4-1 in the last five vs. National League East opponents
  • 18-3 in the last 21 games following an off day

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Pick

Yu Darvish started two games against Philadelphia this year and has a 1-0 record with an excellent 2.08 ERA across 13.0 innings. He did allow three runs in his recent start, but Darvish still got away with a victory over the Dodgers. In his career against the Phillies’ batters, Yu allowed .209 BA in 110 at-bats. We still don’t know the name of Philadelphia’s starter for this game, but whoever starts for the visitors, I am giving an advantage to experienced Darvish who already has two playoff wins in two starts this year.

Pick: Take the Padres to win (-130)

The Total

Philadelphia averages 5.33 runs in the playoffs this year, while San Diego is scoring 4.42 runs per game in the postseason. I have faith in Darvish to contain the Phillies, but there are a couple of players who can hurt him, like Rhys Hoskins who is .375 against the Japanese ace. Over is 22-9 in the last 31 H2H meetings in San Diego; Over is 21-10-2 in the Phillies’ previous 33 playoff games, Over is 6-0-1 in Philadelphia’s last seven vs. National League West rivals, while Over is 6-2-1 in the Padres’ previous nine playoff games.

Pick: Go Over 6.5 runs (-110)