Mitch Keller will get the start for the Pirates (45-57, 23-26 home) as they host the Phillies (55-47, 27-27 away) at PNC Park. The Phillies will give the starting nod to Zack Wheeler. Check out my prediction for game one of this National League matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Runs

This game will be played at PNC Park at 7:05 ET on Friday, July 28th.

WHY BET THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES:

  • In their previous five games, the Pirates are 3-2 vs. the runline.
  • The Phillies are just 1-2 vs. the runline in their last three road games.
  • Across Mitch Keller’s 21 starts, the Pirates have put together a record of 11-10.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES TRYING TO CLOSE GAP IN NL EAST

Philadelphia comes into the game with an above .500 series record on the road at 8-7. Currently, the Phillies are 2nd in the NL East with an overall record of 55-47. Against the runline, they are 42-60 and have an over/under mark of 42-53. On the road, Philadelphia has a runline record of 25-29.

Heading into today’s matchup, Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler has been on a roll, having pitched at least six innings in three consecutive games. Through the season thus far, he holds an ERA of 3.88 and a record of 7-5. His total strikeouts have reached 134, with a slugging percentage allowed of .375 and WHIP of 1.14. Additionally, Wheeler has allowed an opposing WOBA of .288.

Despite Zack Wheeler’s impressive performance, the Philadelphia Phillies fell to the New York Guardians in his last start. Wheeler was charged with the loss, despite surrendering just one run over seven innings of work.

With a season-long average of 4.5 runs per game, the Phillies are the 17th ranked scoring offense this season. As a team, they are batting .256, with an OBP of .319. In Philadelphia’s last ten games, they are 12th in home runs, having gone deep six times in that span.

The Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber leads the team in home runs this season, with 26 to his name. He has also driven in 62 runs and boasts a .424 slugging percentage.

WILL THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

Entering game 103 of their season, the Pirates are 11.5 games out in the NL Central and are in 4th place. So far, their overall series record stands at 10-20-2. Pittsburgh’s road winning percent is currently 41.5% (22-31) compared to 46.9% at home (23-26).

Mitch Keller enters the game with a 9-6 record and an ERA of 4.01. On the road, he has gone 4-4 with an ERA of 4.73, while at home he has put together a 5-2 record and 3.91 ERA. His season WHIP is 1.20, and opponents are hitting .233 against him with a slugging percentage of .382.

Mitch Keller was handed the loss after giving up six runs on nine hits in his last start against the Angels, resulting in a 7-5 Pirates defeat.

Having gone deep 14 times in their last ten games, the Pirates are 5th in that span. At 4.1 runs per game, Pittsburgh is 27th in the league. This figure has come on a team batting average of .236 while hitting a total of 97 home runs (20th).

Jack Suwinski is the Pirates’ home-run king in 2023, having launched 21 long balls and driven in 52 runs. His slugging percentage for the year stands at an impressive .507.