Tylor Megill will get the start for the Mets (72-86, 40-37 home) as they host the Phillies (89-70, 40-38 away) at Citi Field. The Phillies will give the starting nod to Taijuan Walker. Check out my prediction for game one of this NL East matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -121

This game will be played at Citi Field at 7:10 ET on Friday, September 29th.

WHY BET THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

  • The Phillies will be taking on a Mets club that is just 1-4 over their last five games.
  • Coming into the game, the Mets have gone just 1-4 in their last five home games.
  • The Phillies have gone 1-2 in Tylor Megill’s last three starts.

CAN THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES PULL OUT A WIN AS ROAD FAVORITES?

Coming in with an overall record of 89-70, the Phillies are 2nd in the NL East. As of late, Philadelphia has been good on the road, winning three straight road series. The team’s overall series record is 28-18-4. For the season, the Phillies have a runline record of 70-89, which includes going 36-42 away from home. Their over/under mark is 73-76 this year.

The Phillies will turn to Taijuan Walker, who has a 15-5 record in 30 appearances this season. His ERA is 4.35, K/9 is 7.33, FIP is 4.46, and OBP is .313.

Taijuan Walker was unable to secure the victory in his most recent start, despite a quality outing. In the Mets’ 5-4 loss to Philadelphia, Walker pitched six frames and allowed two earned runs.

For the season, the Phillies’ offense is averaging 4.9 runs per game. Over their last five games they have swung the bats well, sitting 7th in the league in scoring, with a total of 24 runs. Overall, Philadelphia’s team batting average is .256, putting them 6th in the MLB.

Over the Phillies’ past five contests, Bryce Harper has paced the club with one home run. Across the entire season, he has hit 21 long balls and boasts a .295 batting average.

WILL THE NEW YORK METS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

Leading up to today’s game, the Mets are 4th in the NL East on a record of 72-86. Overall, they have played in 50 different series, going 17-27-6. When playing above .500 teams, the Mets are 72-86, and currently hold win percentages of 51.9% at home and 39.5% on the road.

Today marks Tylor Megill’s 25th outing of the season, and his record stands at 8-8. His ERA is 4.92, while his OBP allowed is .357. He has struck out 98 batters and holds a WHIP of 1.62. On the road, Megill’s ERA is 7.60, compared to 3.51 at home.

Tylor Megill was unable to secure a victory in his last outing, despite pitching six innings and earning a quality start. The Mets ultimately fell to the Phillies 5-4, with Megill surrendering five hits and three earned runs.

Offensively, New York is ranked 18th in the league with an average of 4.4 runs per game. When looking over their last ten matchups, the Mets averaged 4.8 runs per contest, which is 9th best in that span. In terms of their power numbers, New York is 9th in all of baseball, with a total of 210 home runs.

Francisco Lindor has been one of the Mets’ most productive hitters in 2023. His batting average stands at .254, and he has driven in 96 runs. Additionally, he has blasted 30 home runs this season.