Michael Lorenzen gets the start for the Phillies (58-50, 30-30 away) against Johnny Cueto and the Marlins (58-51, 34-23 home). Today will be game four of their series, with the Phillies leading 2-1. Check out who I like to see who comes out on top in today’s Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins matchup.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -128

This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 12:10 ET on Thursday, August 3rd.

WHY BET THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

  • The Phillies will be taking on a Marlins club that is just 2-3 over their last five games.
  • Looking at the Phillies’ last five games as the underdog, they are just 2-3.
  • Michael Lorenzen has done a good job at avoiding the long-ball of late, having not given up a home-run in each of his past three starts.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES HAVE STRUGGLED AGAINST THE NL EAST

Leading up to today’s game, the Phillies are 2nd in the NL East on a record of 58-50. Overall, they have played in 33 different series, going 18-13-2. When playing above .500 teams, the Phillies are 58-50, and currently hold win percentages of 58.3% at home and 50.0% on the road.

Michael Lorenzen has taken the mound 18 times in 2021, with a 5-7 record. He’s on a five-game streak of not allowing a home run, and his slugging percentage allowed is .364. The right-hander has struck out 83 batters and his WHIP sits at 1.10.

Michael Lorenzen was unable to lead the Phillies to victory in his last outing, as they fell 6-0 to the Angels. The right-hander surrendered three runs on five hits in five innings of work.

With a season-long average of 4.4 runs per game, the Phillies are the 17th ranked scoring offense this season. As a team, they are batting .254, with an OBP of .322. In Philadelphia’s last ten games, they are 14th in home runs, having gone deep six times in that span.

The Philadelphia Phillies have seen Alec Bohm lead the team in hits over their last five games, batting .437. On the season, Bohm is hitting a solid .293 and has driven in 69 runs.

WILL THE MIAMI MARLINS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

Entering game 110 of their season, the Marlins are 12.5 games out in the NL East and are in 3rd place. So far, their overall series record stands at 17-15-1. Miami’s road winning percent is currently 46.2% (24-28) compared to 59.6% at home (34-23).

Johnny Cueto has gone six or more innings in two consecutive starts, but his record is 0-2. Through four outings, his ERA is 5.06 and WHIP .88. He’s posted a K/BB ratio of 14/4 and allowed a slugging percentage of .421. Opposing hitters have mustered a batting average of just .175 against him this season.

Johnny Cueto was dealt a loss in his latest start, as the Marlins were shut out 5-0 by the Tigers. The right-hander pitched six innings, but allowed four runs on four hits.

For the season, the Marlins are 3rd in batting average, hitting a combined .265. Over their last ten games, they have hit .261 which is 8th in that span. Miami’s average of 4.1 runs per game puts them 23rd in the league. In terms of home runs, they have gone deep 99 times and have a team slugging percentage of .400.

Jorge Soler has been a major contributor to the Marlins’ offensive success in 2023. The slugger leads the team with 26 home runs and 57 RBIs, and his season-long slugging percentage is an impressive .494.