The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves open a three-game series at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday, September 28, 2021, so we’ve prepared the best betting pick for this NL East showdown with the first pitch at 7:20 PM ET. 

The stake is enormous in this set, as Atlanta and Phila are battling for the divisional title. The Phillies trail the Braves for two and a half games, opening as +107 road underdogs for Tuesday’s opener. Atlanta is a -117 moneyline fave with a total of 8.0 runs on BetOnline Sportsbook. 

The Phillies just have to win              

The Philadelphia Phillies continue to chase the Braves and are in a must-win situation in this series. They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to the hapless Pittsburgh Pirates last Sunday, putting an end to a five-game winning streak.

The Phillies have gone 9-4 over the last couple of weeks, posting a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a .227 batting average against. They’ve scored 67 runs in the process while slashing .265/.342/.449 and smacking 30 extra-base hits along with 16 home runs.

Zack Wheeler will take the hill Tuesday, and he’s been terrific as of late, allowing no more than a run in each of his previous four starts. Through 23.2 innings of work in that stretch, the 31-year-old righty has registered a 2.02 FIP and a 32/5 K/BB ratio, surrendering a .573 OPS to his opponents. Wheeler is 14-9 with a sharp 2.79 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 31 starts this season.

The Braves eye their fourth straight W 

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a 4-3 victory at the San Diego Padres this past Sunday. They swept a three-game set at Petco Park in San Diego, finishing a ten-game road trip with a 7-3 record. The Braves have won seven of their previous eight games to retain the top spot in the NL East.

Atlanta has scored 62 runs over its last 12 games overall, tallying a decent .264/.312/.452 slash line and hitting 17 home runs. On the pitching side of things, the Braves have registered a strong 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a .212 batting average against.

Charlie Morton will take the mound Tuesday, and he’s 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five starts against the Phillies in 2021. The 37-year-old right-hander is 13-6 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 31 starts this term. Over his previous four showings in September, Morton has registered a 3.60 ERA and 3.12 FIP across 25 innings of work, allowing a .572 OPS to his opponents.

Trends:

Philadelphia:

  • 3-7 in the last ten road games against Atlanta

Atlanta:

  • 7-1 in the last eight games overall

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Pick

I would stick with the totals in the opening game of this series. Both starting pitchers have been playing well lately, especially Zack Wheeler, and with so much at the stake, this clash could easily go either way.

I lean the hosts because of their bullpen that has registered a shiny 2.04 ERA over the last couple of weeks. On the other side, the Phillies bullpen has recorded a 4.73 ERA and 5.40 FIP in that span.

Pick: Take Atlanta Braves at -117    

The Total:

The current Phillies are slashing .253/.317/.358 in 165 at-bats against Charlie Morton. On the flip side, the current Braves are slashing .198/.241/.285 in 171 at-bats against Zack Wheeler, so the starting pitchers should dominate this clash.

Hereof, give me the under on the totals. I’ve mentioned how good the Braves bullpen has been recently, though the Phillies’ relievers are always a problem for the under backers. Four of the last six encounters between Philadelphia and Atlanta went in the under, as well as nine of the Braves’ previous 13 games played on Tuesday.

Pick: Go under 8.0 runs at -120