Going into game three of this NL East showdown, the Braves (97-54, 48-26 home) are giving the start to Bryce Elder. On the other side, the Phillies (82-69, 39-38 away) are rolling with Aaron Nola. Don’t miss my prediction for today’s Philadelphia Phillies versus Atlanta Braves game in Atlanta.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Atlanta Braves -150
This game will be played at Truist Park at 12:20 ET on Wednesday, September 20th.
WHY BET THE ATLANTA BRAVES:
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Phillies are just 3-7 straight-up.
- So far, the Braves are 8-4 against the Phillies this season.
- Aaron Nola has struggled of late, coming in with an ERA of 8.55 over his last three starts.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES TRYING TO CLOSE GAP IN NL EAST
For the season, the Phillies have put together a record of 82-69 and are 2nd in the NL East, putting them 15 games out of first place. Philadelphia’s overall series record sits at 26-19-3. On the road, they have gone 39-38 and 43-31 at home.
Aaron Nola has been a reliable starter for the Phillies this season, boasting a 12-9 record in 30 appearances. His ERA of 4.62 is accompanied by an impressive K/9 of 9.25, while his FIP and OBP stand at 4.19 and .280 respectively.
Aaron Nola didn’t earn the decision, but the Phillies still managed to come away with a 5-4 victory over the Cardinals despite his three runs and seven hits allowed in his last outing.
During their last ten games, Philadelphia is the 19th ranked offense in terms of batting average. In these games, they have hit a combined .233 and are averaging 5.2 runs per game. Across the entire season, the Phillies are hitting .258 with an OBP of .328 while averaging 4.9 runs per contest. This figure puts them 9th in the league.
Nick Castellanos has been a key contributor to the Phillies’ offense this season, leading the team with 25 home runs over their last five games. His batting average of .271 is also impressive, demonstrating his ability to consistently make contact at the plate.
WILL THE ATLANTA BRAVES TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
Leading up to today’s game, the Braves are 1st in the NL East on a record of 97-54. Overall, they have played in 48 different series, going 34-11-3. When playing above .500 teams, the Braves are 97-54, and currently hold win percentages of 64.9% at home and 63.6% on the road.
Today, Atlanta’s Bryce Elder will take the mound with the aim of avoiding another long ball. So far this season, he has compiled a 12-4 record and 3.50 ERA, striking out 126 batters and walking 2.9 per nine innings for a K/9 of 6.78.
Bryce Elder’s last outing saw him toss five innings, but the Braves ultimately fell to the Marlins 9-6. The right-hander was unable to factor into the decision, surrendering four runs on nine hits.
Across their last five games, the Braves’ offense is 8th in batting average, leading to an average of 4.6 runs per contest in that span. Overall, they are the 1st ranked scoring offense and posted a season-long OPS of .844 on 291 (1st). On average, they have struckout 7 times per game compard to 3.3 walks.
Over the Braves’ last five games, Ozzie Albies has been a major contributor to the team’s offense, leading with two home runs. For the season, he has hit 31 long balls and is batting .268.