The Phillies (90-72, 41-40 away) travel to take on the Braves (104-58, 52-29 home) in game one of this NL East matchup. Ranger Suárez is getting the start for the Phillies while Spencer Strider is starting for the Braves. See who I like to pick up the win in today’s Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves showdown at Truist Park.


The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 Runs

This game will be played at Truist Park at 6:07 ET on Saturday, October 7th.


  • The Phillies will be taking on a Braves club that is just 2-3 vs. the runline over their last five games.
  • Over their last five games as the favorite, the Braves are just 2-3 against the runline.
  • Spencer Strider has struggled of late, coming in with an ERA of 5.20 over his last three starts.


162 games into their season, the Phillies are 2nd in the NL East on an overall record of 90-72. Against other teams in the NL East, Philadelphia is 25-27 while their overall series win percent sits at 58%. At home, the Phillies are 49-32 and 41-40 on the road.

Philadelphia starter Ranger Suárez has had an up-and-down season thus far, with an overall record of 4-6 and ERA of 4.18. His ERA on the road is a respectable 3.13, but it balloons to 6.35 when he’s pitching at home. Suárez’s WHIP for the season stands at 1.42, while opposing teams have managed to hit .263 against him with a slugging percentage of .408.

Ranger Suárez was unable to secure a victory in his latest start against the Pirates, surrendering six runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings. Despite the right-hander’s struggles, the Phillies emerged victorious with a 7-6 scoreline.

Having gone deep 14 times in their last ten games, the Phillies are 5th in that span. At 4.9 runs per game, Philadelphia is 8th in the league. This figure has come on a team batting average of .256 while hitting a total of 220 home runs (7th).

Kyle Schwarber is the Phillies’ leader in home runs this season, with 47 long balls and 104 RBIs. His slugging percentage stands at a robust .474 for the year.


The Braves enter today’s game with an overall record of 104-58 which includes going 55-33 against teams with above .500 records. As of today, they are 1st in the NL East. Across their 49 series, Atlanta is 36-11-2 and have records of 52-29 and 52-29 on the road and at home, respectively.

Spencer Strider has been a force to be reckoned with in 2023, boasting a 20-5 record and an ERA of 3.86 across 32 appearances. His slugging percentage allowed is .343 and his WHIP sits at 1.09. Strider has racked up 281 strikeouts this season, averaging 13.55 per nine innings. On the road, he’s 12-2 with an ERA of 4.20, while his home record stands at 8-3 with an ERA of 5.42.

The Braves are looking to Spencer Strider to help them secure another victory, as they came out on top the last time he took the mound. Strider completed five innings of work in that game, allowing three earned runs on six hits.

For the season, the Braves’ offense is averaging 5.8 runs per game. Over their last five games they have swung the bats well, sitting 4th in the league in scoring, with a total of 31 runs. Overall, Atlanta’s team batting average is .276, putting them 1st in the MLB.

Matt Olson has been a major contributor to the Braves’ offensive success in 2023, leading the team with 54 home runs and 139 RBIs. His slugging percentage of .604 is also one of the highest on the team.