Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Free Pick 09/25/19

Cesar Hernandez and the slumping Philadelphia Phillies will square off against their divisional rival Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. The matchup will get underway at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to NBC Sports Philadelphia to catch the game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Odds

Washington (-160) is favored over Philadelphia (+150) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this one at 10 runs (-115 for the over and -105 for the under). There’s a runline of Phillies +1.5 (-145) and Nationals -1.5 (+125) for this matchup.

The Nationals are 88-69 straight up (SU) and 86-69 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 12.2 units ATS. The Phillies are 79-78 SU and have gone 74-81 against the spread. They’re down 5.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.4 units ATS.

Washington games have an over/under record of 72-74-9 in 2019. The Phillies have an over/under record of 73-77-5.

Drew Smyly is getting the start for the visiting Phillies. The left-handed Smyly is 4-7 with a 6.44 ERA and 110 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Nationals this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Nationals are going with righty Anibal Sanchez (10-8, 3.91 ERA), who’s got 127 strikeouts and 58 walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.29. Sanchez is 0-2 with 20 strikeouts and a 4.43 ERA over four starts against Philadelphia this year.

As a unit, Washington’s pitchers have given up 4.5 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 3.52, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.6. The bullpen has a 5.79 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 74 games against divisional opponents, Nationals starters have an ERA of 3.54 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.26.

Washington’s hitters have put up 5.3 runs per outing, including 5.5 per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .279/.393/.418 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Third baseman Anthony Rendon and right fielder Adam Eaton have led the Nationals’ hitters this year. Rendon is hitting .322/.410/.603 with 34 home runs, 124 RBIs and 115 runs scored, while Eaton’s line sits at .282/.366/.434 with 15 homers, 48 RBIs, 100 runs and 14 stolen bases.

For the visiting squad, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.59 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.34 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.51, along with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K-per-9 of 8.96.

The Phillies offense has slashed .245/.321/.426 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .281/.335/.401 with 12 home runs, 69 RBIs and 72 runs scored, while Segura (.279/.322/.421) has produced 12 homers, 60 RBIs and 79 runs scored.

The Phillies have gained 4.9 units and are 57-56 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 55 of those games, compared to 54 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Nationals have netted 1.2 units and are 22-17 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 19 that went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER