Last Updated: 2019-04-21
The Toronto Raptors have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with Orlando, when they visit the Magic this evening for Game 4 of their Eastern Conference playoff series. The Raptors are favored by 5.5 and the total on the game is 207.
The Raptors got the win but failed to cover last time out despite holding the Magic to 36.2% shooting from the field and Orlando was even worse from 3-point range, hitting just 13 of 44 (29.5%). The Magic were solid from the foul line, missing just once in 23 attempts, which enabled them to stay in the game until the end and ultimately get the money for those who backed them.
The total was 211 in that game, so we’re seeing a four-point drop as a result of that one, so there may be slight value on the over, but we’ve seen a high of 205 points through the first three games and while some of the low scores has to do with poor shooting, it’s also a case of both teams stepping up and playing better defense than they showed throughout most of the season.
Toronto hasn’t been great shooting themselves, but have made enough shots to win the last two games and they’re far more interested in winning than covering the spread. The Raptors did a much better job keeping the Magic from getting second chances last time, as they allowed jut seven offensive rebounds after allowing 10 and 12 the first two games and a couple of extra possessions for the Magic could have changed the outcome, so again, that should be a priority for Toronto.
The Magic played hard in Game 3, but hard to say if that was their ‘best shot,’ as we’ve all seen teams that pack it in after a tough loss, although Orlando has been pretty good this season about bouncing back after a defeat. Even though they did lose straight-up in Game 3, they did cover, which is all we’re interested in.
The Nets just lost to the Sixers in a similar situation, where the road team won the first game of the series and them dropped the next two. But even with that loss, it’s still a 21-13 (61%) trend for the home team to cover in that spot. Not a big play by any means, but will take a shot on the Magic to keep this one close again.
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