The NCAAF Bowl games continue on Wednesday, December 28, with this tilt in San Diego, CA, and you can’t afford to miss out on the best Ducks vs. Tar Heels betting pick and odds.

Oregon and North Carolina will be cross swords in a duel for the Holiday Bowl and $6,532,700 of prize money when they face at Petco Park. The Ducks are -14.5 favorites on BetDSI Sportsbook, while the total is set at 73.5 points. These non-conference rivals have never met before.

Ducks fell apart in the final quarter against Oregon State

The No. 15 Oregon Ducks (9-3-0, 8-4-0 ATS) had a chance to reach the Pac-12 Championship game, but even a 17-point lead early in the fourth quarter wasn’t enough to avoid a loss to the Oregon State Beavers on the road. 

The Ducks were ahead by 21 inside the last five minutes in the third quarter, and although were better in total yards (470-328), first downs (26-19), and forced three turnovers without making one on the other end, they couldn’t get a W.

Bo Nix completed 27 of 41 passes for 327 yards and two touchdowns. Chase Cota was impressive in the air with a season-high 136 yards and a score on nine receptions. Troy Franklin chipped in 78 yards and a TD on eight catches, while Terrance Ferguson caught one pass for a 53-yard gain. Noah Whittington led Oregon in rushing yards with 81 and a touchdown. On the defensive end, Bennett Williams led the team with eight tackles.

Tar Heels were destroyed by Clemson in the ACC Championship game

The North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4-0, 6-7-0 ATS) experienced a strong regular season, and thanks to a six-game winning streak, they made it to the ACC Championship game. However, the Clemson Tigers were too strong and freshman QB Drake Maye made three costly errors, including a 98-yard pick-six in the third quarter that decided the tilt. Despite having more first downs (26-17) and possession (35:01-24:59) than the Tigers, the Tar Heels committed three turnovers and forced none in return in a 39-10 defeat.

Drake Maye completed 26 of 42 passes for 268 yards and two interceptions. He did score North Carolina’s only touchdown of the game but on the ground. Elijah Green led all the runners with 65 yards on 21 carries. Josh Downs was solid in the air with 100 yards on 11 receptions, while Kamari Morales and Antoine Green combined for 107 yards on eight catches. Defensively, Will Hardy was rock-solid with a career-high 13 tackles.

WR Josh Downs will not play in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl against Oregon on Wednesday after deciding to declare for the NFL draft. RB Caleb Hood (undisclosed) is questionable to feature against the Ducks.



  • 2-5 ATS in the last seven Bowl games
  • 2-5 ATS in the last seven non-conference games
  • 0-4 ATS in the last four neutral site games

North Carolina:

  • 5-2 ATS in the last seven games following an ATS loss
  • 3-1-1 ATS in the last five vs. Pac-12 rivals

Oregon Ducks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Pick

The biggest reason for such a spread and advantage on the Ducks is Josh Downs’ unavailability to play in this Bowl game after declaring for the NFL draft. Downs is a two-time All-ACC wide receiver who had back-to-back 1,000 receiving yards in the last two years and 22 receiving touchdowns during his three-year stay with North Carolina.

 Although his absence will hurt the Tar Heels, I am backing Drake Maye to have a redemption game on Wednesday after a disastrous display against Clemson. He does have over 4,100 passing yards and 35 touchdowns this season and leads the 8th-best passing offense in the country that averages 317.2 yards per game. Maye can turn to Antoine Green, Bryson Nesbitt, and J.J. Jones and target them often in this tilt. They will split Downs’ targets.

Pick: Take the Tar Heels at 16.5 (-130)

The Total

Well, I talked about North Carolina’s offense, but it’s vital to mention Oregon’s, which is averaging 39.7 points per game (9th in the country) and is among the top 15 in both passing and running. Given that the Tar Heels allow 31.0 points per contest, I can see a classic shootout on Wednesday. Over is 4-1 in the Tar Heels’ last five Bowl games; Over is 4-1 in the Ducks’ last five non-conference games, while Over is 15-6 in North Carolina’s last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.

Pick: Go Over 72.5 points (-120)