The calendar year will come to a close for the PGA Tour with this week’s OHL Classic at Mayakoba. With the last event until after the New Year, we have a far stronger field than anything we’ve ever seen at El Camaleon in Playa del Carmen. A lot of players will pull double duty this week with a vacation and a golf tournament and those are never a bad idea in the month of December.

Dustin Johnson decided to back out of the event, but we still have an outstanding group of players on this par 71 track south of the border. This will be a good weekend of golf with a lot of players motivated to head into the holidays with some extra cash and some more FedEx Cup points as we hope for more normalcy in 2021.

We’ll break this one down with odds from MyBookie Sportsbook, where you can get a 100% Deposit Match Bonus and a free NFL Futures Bet if you sign up through us at BangTheBook.

With a big field, we’ll save the odds for the bottom of the page, but we will use in-text odds for the players being discussed.

The Field

Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka highlight a field that also includes Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, reigning champ Brendon Todd, Viktor Hovland, and Mexican players Carlos Ortiz and Abraham Ancer. A Mexican-born player has never won this event, but Ortiz was co-runner-up last year and Ancer has two top-10 finishes in the last three years.

JT and Berger have not played this event since 2015. Koepka hasn’t played since 2014. Marc Leishman is here for the first time since 2017. Alex Noren has never played this event. The calendar is certainly pushing some guys to be here at El Camaleon with the last tournament of 2020.

Course Profile

Playa del Carmen is in the state of Quintana Roo, which is a very popular vacation destination on the shores of the Gulf of Mexico on the tip of the country. This has mostly been a scorer’s course with winning scores of -20, -22, -19, and -21 the last four years. As a coastal course, wind can obviously play a big factor.

Like most coastal courses, hitting the ball a mile isn’t really a prerequisite. A lot of fairways and greens are very reachable. That’s not to say that big hitters can’t get a leg up on the field, but the winners since 2013 when it stopped being an alternate event are Todd, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell, Charley Hoffman, and Harris English. There aren’t many big hitters in that bunch.

This is a very lush and green course. It is in a very moist part of the country with dense mangroves and tropical jungle. Really errant tee shots could become a problem, but this Greg Norman design features a lot of margin for error.

Seven of the 18 holes played over par last year, most of them par 4s. The par 5s are good scoring holes and most of the par 3s play as good birdie holes.

Yay or Neigh?

The horse for course section is really interesting this week because the field is a lot stronger, but there are some regulars that play really well here. Pat Perez, who won back in 2017, has finished eighth and sixth the last two years. Harris English won in 2014 and then struggled for five years before finishing fifth last year. Abraham Ancer has back-to-back top-10 finishes.

Carlos Ortiz was second last year and ninth in 2015. Billy Horschel was eighth last year after finishing 21st in 2018. Joel Dahmen has two top-25 finishes here, including a T-6th last year. Harold Varner III has a couple top 10s over the last five years. Russell Knox was ninth, third, and second from 2018-16. Adam Hadwin had top-10 finishes here two years ago and four years ago.

Brice Garnett is probably the most accomplished here with five straight top-25 finishes and four in the top 11. He hasn’t won here, but he plays extremely well here.

Recent form may trump course form, as a lot of the guys in the field this week have not played overly well of late.

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Handicap & Picks

Accuracy is a big deal on this course. The only way you really get in trouble is to spray a tee shot or find a bunker. Greens are very reachable in regulation and there are a lot opportunities to make birdies.

Of the short prices, Harris English at +1600 is a good look with a well-rounded game, but it would be nice to get a bigger number on him, which you can probably do with in-tournament wagering.

Another short price worthy of a look is Corey Conners at +3300. This course may not totally fit him because he hits it a mile, but he is a great ball striker. These greens aren’t too terrible and Conners has three top-10 finishes in his last four events. I think we’ll get a chance to take him early in 2021, but I’d be wary of taking him here.

I’ll look down the board here a bit instead. Joel Dahmen is +6600 as a guy that graded very well last season in the ball striking metrics, but had some putting issues. He was 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 44th in SG: Approach. He was 41st in SG: Total, but he’s not a super long hitter, so most courses are a bit of a challenge. Dahmen was 38th in driving accuracy percentage last season. He hasn’t been quite as accurate or polished this season, but the putter has been better and he scored a top-10 finish here last season.

Russell Knox has quietly played well this season. He’s 50th in SG: Approach over 13 measured rounds and 55th in SG: T2G. Knox has had major putting issues, but he must like the surfaces here at El Camaleon because he’s made the cut all seven times and has three top-10 finishes. He missed the cut last time out, but was 15th and 16th prior to that. He plays pretty well at coastal courses and has that European Tour background to play well in wind. At +8000, he’s a good gamble.

Don’t be afraid to start preflop with some big numbers like Rory Sabbatini at +12500 or Brice Garnett at +15000. Even a Lucas Glover at +16000 or JJ Spaun at +17500. This is the kind of event where a long shot can win.

Odds from MyBookie Sportsbook as of 11 a.m. ET on 12/1:

JUSTIN THOMAS +650
BROOKS KOEPKA +1000
HARRIS ENGLISH +1600
TONY FINAU +1800
ABRAHAM ANCER +1800
DANIEL BERGER +2000
VIKTOR HOVLAND +2000
RICKIE FOWLER +2200
RUSSELL HENLEY +2500
WILL ZALATORIS +2800
COREY CONNERS +3300
JOAQUIN NIEMANN +3500
BILLY HORSCHEL +3500
CARLOS ORTIZ +4500
MARC LEISHMAN +4500
GARYWOODLAND +5000
SEBASTIAN MUNOZ +5500
BRENDON TODD +5500
CHARLES HOWELL III +5500
BRIAN HARMAN +6000
ALEX NOREN +6000
JOEL DAHMEN +6600
PATTON KIZZIRE +6600
EMILIANO GRILLO +6600
SCOTT PIERCY +7000
HAROLD VARNER III +7000
AUSTIN COOK +8000
CHEZ REAVIE +8000
RUSSELL KNOX +8000
DENNY MCCARTHY +8000
BYEONG HUN AN +8000
ADAM LONG +8000
DOUG GHIM +8000
BRIAN GAY +9000
KEEGAN BRADLEY +9000
SEPP STRAKA +10000
DANNY LEE +11000
AARON WISE +11000
CHRIS KIRK +11000
JOHN HUH +12500
CHARLEY HOFFMAN +12500
ADAM HADWIN +12500
MAVERICK MCNEALY +12500
ANDY OGLETREE +12500
PETER MALNATI +12500
RORY SABBATINI +12500
HENRIK NORLANDER +12500
KEVIN STREELMAN +12500
GRAEME MCDOWELL +12500
PAT PEREZ +14000
VAUGHN TAYLOR +14000
OLLIE SCHNIEDERJANS +14000
WILL GORDON +15000
BRICE GARNETT +15000
HARRY HIGGS +15000
CAMILO VILLEGAS +15000
PATRICK RODGERS +15000
BRENDAN STEELE +16000
BRIAN STUARD +16000
LUCAS GLOVER +16000
TYLER DUNCAN +16000
KRISTOFFER VENTURA +16000
BRANDEN GRACE +16000
MAX HOMA +17500
WESLEY BRYAN +17500
KYLE STANLEY +17500
ADAM SCHENK +17500
J J SPAUN +17500
SANTIAGO TARRIO +17500
RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO +17500
CHESSON HADLEY +17500
LUKE LIST +17500
ROBBY SHELTON +20000
AUSTIN ECKROAT +20000
QUADE CUMMINS +20000
ANDREW PUTNAM +20000
JHONATTAN VEGAS +20000
RYAN ARMOUR +20000
DAVID HEARN +20000
MARK HUBBARD +20000
ROGER SLOAN +20000
NATE LASHLEY +22500
BEAU HOSSLER +22500
JASON DUFNER +22500
KEITH MITCHELL +22500
CAMERON PERCY +22500
TOM HOGE +22500
SUNG KANG +22500
TROY MERRITT +22500
XINJUN ZHANG +22500
BRONSON BURGOON +25000
AARON BADDELEY +25000
MICHAEL GLIGIC +25000
HANK LEBIODA +25000
KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT +25000
ROB OPPENHEIM +25000
D J TRAHAN +27500
STEVE STRICKER +27500
JOSEPH BRAMLETT +27500
LUKE DONALD +30000
ROBERTO DIAZ +30000
KELLY KRAFT +30000
FABIAN GOMEZ +30000
MARK ANDERSON +30000
CHASE SEIFFERT +30000
BO HOAG +30000
NICK WATNEY +35000
SEBASTIAN CAPPELEN +40000
TIM WILKINSON +40000
KYOUNG-HOON LEE +40000
CHRIS BAKER +40000
VINCENT WHALEY +50000
JOHNSON WAGNER +50000
SATOSHI KODAIRA +50000
SCOTT HARRINGTON +50000
BRANDON HAGY +50000
SAM RYDER +60000
K J CHOI +75000
MATT EVERY +75000
HUNTER MAHAN +100000
RAFAEL CAMPOS +100000
BO VAN PELT +100000
MICHAEL KIM +150000
KEVIN STADLER +150000
ARMANDO FAVELA +150000
D A POINTS +150000
MARTIN TRAINER +150000
AARON TERRAZAS +250000

 

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