Betting on today’s Demons and Lions game? Catch the action at The Field House in Commerce, TX, as the Lions hosts this showdown at 8:30 ET on ESPN+. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 140.5 points, and Texas A&M-Commerce is favored by -3.5 to win at home against Northwestern State.


The Pick: Texas A&M-Commerce Lions -3.5

This game will be played at The Field House at 8:30 ET on Wednesday, March 6th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-70 in favor of the Lions.
  • Not only will Texas A&M-Commerce pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -3.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 140.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 146 points.

Can the Demons Pull Off a Win at Commerce?

Northwestern State is 9-21 overall and 7-9 in Southland Conference play. They are 3-13 on the road this season, and their average scoring margin in road games is -11.6 points per game.

As the underdog, the Demons are 3-20 this season. In their last game, they fell to Nicholls, 68-62. Over their last 10 road games, Northwestern State is 3-7.

As the underdog this season, Northwestern State has gone 10-13 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Demons have an ATS mark of 3-7. On the road this year, Northwestern State is 9-7 vs. the spread, including a perfect 3-0 mark in their last three road contests.

Northwestern State’s over/under record this season is 14-13 and today’s over/under line of 140.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (146.4). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 149 points and their over/under record over their last 10 games is 3-7.

In their most recent game, the Northwestern State offense concluded with only 62 points against Nicholls. Throughout the game, they made 5/15 three-point attempts and had a field goal percentage of 33.9%. The team’s top scorer is Cliff Davis, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 13.8, while Braelon Bush also maintains a PPG average of 10.7 leading up to the game.

Coming into the game, Northwestern State will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 75.9 points per game (268th). Northwestern State’s three-point defense is currently 93rd in the country at 6.6 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 44.6% of their shots vs. Northwestern State.

Is a Home Win Possible for the Lions?

After losing their last game to Lamar by a score of 70-53, the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions’ overall record stands at 11-19. They have gone 4-12 in Southland Conference play and 7-7 in non-conference games.

At home this season, the Lions have gone 4-7, and they are currently on a two-game losing streak at home. For the year, their average scoring margin at home is -3.0 points per game.

As the favorite this season, Texas A&M-Commerce has gone 4-3 against the spread. At home, the Lions are 6-5 vs. the spread this year and have gone 5-4 ATS in their last 10 home games. Their overall ATS mark for the season is 11-15.

Today’s over/under line of 140.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Texas A&M-Commerce’s games this season (141.4). So far, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

The Texas A&M-Commerce offense is coming off a game where they scored 53 points against Lamar. They posted a field goal percentage of 35.8% and connected on 5 threes. Tommie Lewis was the leading scorer for the Lions, putting up 14 points. In addition, Kalen Williams contributed 10 points.

Currently, the Lions’ defense holds the 248th rank in the nation, allowing 74.9 points per game. The Texas A&M-Commerce defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 70 points and allowed Lamar to connect on 5 threes.