Looking to win big? The Panthers and Beacons face off at 8:00 ET on ESPN+. The Beacons are hosting the game at Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, IN. Northern Iowa come into this Missouri Valley conference matchup as the -7.5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 142.5 points.


The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +7.5

This game will be played at Athletics-Recreation Center at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, February 14th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Beacons.
  • Not only will Valparaiso pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +7.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 142.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Does Northern Iowa Have a Shot at a Road Win?

After dropping their most recent game to UIC by a score of 71-65, Northern Iowa has an overall record of 13-12. They are currently 7-7 in Missouri Valley Conference play and 6-5 in non-conference games.

So far this season, the Panthers have gone 5-8 on the road, and their average scoring margin away from home is -1.6 points per game. They have lost three consecutive road games and are 0-3 in their last three.

When looking at Northern Iowa’s ATS record this season, they are currently 11-13. In their last three road games, they are 0-3 vs. the spread. For the year, their road ATS mark sits at 5-8. As the favorite, the Panthers are 7-6 vs. the spread this season and over their last 10 games as the favorite, they are 6-4.

Today’s over/under line of 142.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Northern Iowa’s games this year (143.9), and their over/under record is 10-14. So far, 14 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s line. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 129 points, and their over/under record during that span is 0-3.

In contrast to their season average of 72.2 points per game, the Northern Iowa had a below average performance. They scored 65 points against UIC and had a field goal percentage of 42.1%. Nate Heise is leading the team in scoring at 13.8 points per contest. Bowen Born has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 13.3 going into the game.

Northern Iowa’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 71.1 points per game. So far, the Northern Iowa defense is giving up an average of 6.4 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.8 times per game (403rd).

Will Valparaiso Make it Happen at Home?

Valparaiso has been struggling mightily this season, as they come into this game with a record of 6-19. They have lost six games in a row, and their record in the Missouri Valley Conference is just 2-12. At home, the Beacons are 4-9 this season, and they have lost three straight games.

On the other side, Northern Iowa is the favorite in this one, as they are favored by 7.5 points. Valparaiso has been the underdog in 18 of their 25 games this season, and their record as the underdog is just 2-16.

As the underdog this season, Valparaiso has an ATS record of 10-7-1. Their overall ATS mark for the year is 13-10-1. At home, the Beacons are just 5-8 vs. the spread and their last 3 home ATS record is 0-3. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Valpo has gone 7-3 vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for Valparaiso’s games is 12-12, and today’s line of 142.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games (143.2). So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 153 points, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 8-2.

Valparaiso finished with 78 points in their game against Belmont. This total surpasses their season-average of 68 points per game. Offensively, the Beacons have a season long field goal percentage of 40%, which is 369th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 268th in percentage and 219th in three-pointers made.

Currently, the Beacons’ defense holds the 220th rank in the nation, allowing 74.4 points per game. Valparaiso’s three-point defense is currently 130th in the country at 7.1 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 47.1% of their shots vs. Valparaiso.