Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Lumberjacks versus the Hornets? Tip off is at at 9:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at The Hornets Nest in Sacramento, CA. This Big Sky conference matchup has an over/under of 132 points, and Sacramento State is favored to win by -3 at home vs. Northern Arizona.


The Pick: Sacramento State Hornets -3

This game will be played at The Hornets Nest at 9:00 ET on Thursday, February 15th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Hornets.
  • Not only will Sacramento State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -3.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 132 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Do the Lumberjacks Have What it Takes on the Road?

With just 11 wins in 25 games, Northern Arizona is just 4-7 in Big Sky play. On the road, the Lumberjacks have gone just 5-11, compared to their 6-3 record at home. As the underdog, Northern Arizona is 5-13 this season.

Coming off a 76-71 win over Montana State, the Lumberjacks have gone 1-2 in their last three road games. Over their last 10 games on the road, they have gone 3-7.

As the underdog this season, Northern Arizona has gone 8-10 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 6-10, including a 1-2 record in their last three away games. Overall, the Lumberjacks have an 11-14 ATS mark this year.

So far this season, the over/under record for Northern Arizona games is 10-14-1. The average scoring total in their games this year is 143.8 points, which is lower than the average over/under line of 144.5 points. Today’s over/under line is set at 132 points. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 155 points.

The Northern Arizona offense is coming off a game in which they scored 76 points vs. Montana State. Overall their field goal percentage was 50.9% while connecting on 6 threes. The team’s top scorer is Trenton McLaughlin, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 16.5, while Carson Basham also carries a PPG average of 11.4 into the game.

The Lumberjacks’ defense is presently ranked 260th nationally, allowing an average of 76.3 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Montana State, the Bobcats finished with a field goal percentage of 50% and a total of 71 points vs. Northern Arizona.

Can the Hornets Offense Score Enough at Home?

After losing their last game to Weber State by a score of 58-53, Sacramento State is 6-19 overall and 2-10 in Big Sky action. They have lost eight games in a row and are 3-7 at home this season.

As the favorite, the Hornets are 2-5 this season. They have been the underdog in 16 of their 25 games, going 2-14 in those contests.

As the favorite this season, Sacramento State has gone just 1-5-1 against the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Hornets are just 2-7-1 vs. the spread. At home, Sacramento State is 3-6-1 ATS this season and over their last 10 home games, they have a mark of 3-5-1 vs. the spread.

So far this season, the over/under record for Sacramento State games is 8-15. Today’s over/under line of 132 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season of 138.3. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 108 points.

In contrast to their season average of 65.8 points per game, the Sacramento State had a below average performance. They scored 53 points against Weber State and had a field goal percentage of 45.2%. Coming into the game, the Hornets offense has strugled with their outside shot this season, hitting threes at a rate of just 31%. On average, they get up 22.9 three-point attempts per game and are averaging 12.2 made free-throws.

The Hornets’ defense is presently ranked 114th nationally, allowing an average of 70.0 points per contest. Against Weber State in their most recent game, the Sacramento State defense gave up a total of 58 points while allowing Weber State to hit 47% of their shots.