Planning on watching today’s Ospreys and Knights game? Catch the action at Freedom Hall in Louisville, KY, as the Knights hosts this showdown at 6:30 ET on ESPN+. North Florida come into this Atlantic Sun conference matchup as the -2.5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 141.5 points.


The Pick: North Florida Ospreys -2.5

This game will be played at Freedom Hall at 6:30 ET on Thursday, January 25th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 83-64 in favor of the Ospreys.
  • Not only will North Florida pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -2.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 141.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 147 points.

Can the Ospreys Pull Off a Win at Louisville?

North Florida comes into this game with a record of 11-9, and they have won four games in a row. The Ospreys are 4-1 in Atlantic Sun games compared to 7-8 in non-conference contests.

On the road this season, North Florida has gone 2-7, and they have been outscored by an average of 10.1 points per game. Their record at home is 6-2, and they have won four straight games there.

North Florida has an overall ATS record of 10-6-1 this season, including a mark of 5-3-1 on the road. In their last 10 games as the favorite, the Ospreys have gone 5-5 vs. the spread.

North Florida’s over/under record this season is 7-9-1 and today’s over/under line of 141.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (152.8). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 159 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1. So far, 12 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 141.5.

North Florida’s offense had a good outing, putting up 91 points against Queens (NC). They achieved a 51.6% field goal percentage and went 9/12 from the free-throw line. On the offensive front, the Ospreys have a season-long field goal percentage of 43%, ranking 266th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 79th in terms of percentage and 1st in three-pointers made.

North Florida’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 74.2 points per game. In their previous game vs. Queens (NC), the Royals finished with a field goal percentage of 51% and a total of 75 points vs. North Florida.

Will Bellarmine Make it Happen at Home?

Despite their 13-game losing streak, Bellarmine has been competitive at home this season, going 5-5 over their last 10 games. They are just 0-4 at home this year, and they are 1-12 as the underdog.

Over their last three games, the Knights have gone 0-3 at home, and they are coming off an 82-70 loss to Eastern Kentucky.

As the underdog, Bellarmine has struggled vs. the spread this season, going just 4-8-1. Their home ATS record is 0-4 and they are 0-3 vs. the spread in their last three games at home. Overall, their last 10 home ATS mark is just 1-6.

This season, the over/under record for Bellarmine is 9-8 and today’s line of 141.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this year (140.4). Across their last three games, the average scoring total is 130 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 5-4.

The Bellarmine offense is coming off a game in which they scored 70 points vs. Eastern Kentucky. Overall their field goal percentage was 42.4% while connecting on 11 threes. In terms of offense, the Knights have a season-long field goal percentage of 42%, putting them 330th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 179th in percentage and 151st in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Bellarmine defense is giving up an average of 73.4 points per contest. In today’s game vs. North Florida, the Bellarmine defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Bellarmine made 17 free-throws vs. the Knights.