No. 25 Florida at Tennessee 9/22/2018: College Football Free Betting Pick

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

 
Saturday, 09/22/2018 at 07:00 pm FLORIDA (3-1) at TENNESSEE (2-2)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
357FLORIDA 45 41 16 3-1 3-1-0 1-2-0 188.5 194.5 383 187.8 150.5 338.3
358TENNESSEE +3 29.5 22.5 2-2 1-3-0 2-2-0 205 192.8 397.8 134.8 180.8 315.6

Last Updated: 2018-09-18

The No. 25 Florida Gators (-4.5) are heading north to visit their conference counterpart Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN will televise the action.

No. 25 Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Odds

Florida is giving up 4.5 points in this SEC game. The Gators are currently getting -200 moneyline odds while the Volunteers are +170. There will likely be multiple decent live betting scenarios in this game, and the over/under (O/U) has been set at 49 points.

Sharp bettors are siding with the Vols, as the line opened at 5.5. The game’s total has yet to move after it was set initially at 49.

The Gators are 2-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Volunteers are 2-1 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play. The hapless Gators are down 6.0 units so far and 2-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 0-2.

The Volunteers have lost 1.0 unit this season. The team is 1-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Gators are coming off a resounding 48-10 victory over Colorado State last week where Feleipe Franks completed only eight-of-15 passes for 119 yards, two scores and one interception. Franks (25 yards on seven rush attempts) also spearheaded the running attack in the win. Van Jefferson (two receptions, 62 yards, one TD) and Jordan Scarlett (two catches, 14 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Tennessee just earned a 24-0 win over UTEP. The let the Miners put up 39 passing yards and 95 rushing yards. Quardraiz Wadley had a productive showing in the loss for UTEP, posting zero yards on zero catch. For Tennessee, Jarrett Guarantano completed 12-of-16 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown. Tim Jordan (49 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Ty Chandler (158 yards on 12 carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win while Brandon Johnson (four receptions, 51 yards) and Jauan Jennings (three catches, 22 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Florida has run the ball on 54.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tennessee has a rush percentage of 68.8 percent. The Gators have run for 185 yards/game and have three touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Vols are averaging 221 rush yards per contest and have eight total rushing TDs.

The Gators have logged 197 yards per contest through the air overall and have nine passing TDs so far. The Vols have recorded 188 pass yards per outing and have three total pass scores.

Defensively, Florida appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 198 yards and throw for 131 yards per game. Tennessee has allowed 112.7 yards per game on the ground and 179.0 to opposing teams in the air. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.78 to opponents, while the Vols have given up a 5.81 ANY/A.

Franks has put up 338 pass yards this year, and has connected on 24-of-39 attempts with seven passing touchdowns and only one interception. Franks has a 10.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.79 over the last two outings.

We’re looking for Gators to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Van Jefferson (96 yards, three TDs), Jordan Scarlett (80 rush yards, one rush TD, 14 receiving yards) and Lamical Perine (65 rush yards) have brought significant production to the Florida offense.

For the home team, Jarrett Guarantano has put up 340 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. Guarantano’s ANY/A sits at 7.93 for the season and 10.06 over his last two games.

The Vols should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Along with Josh Palmer (97 receiving yards), Ty Chandler (154 rush yards, one rush TD) and Madre London (86 rush yards) have gotten a lot of touches lately.

These two teams met last year with the final result being a 26-20 win for Florida.

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Free Prediction

SU Winner – Florida, ATS Winner – Florida, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes

Florida was favored by 22 points in its last game and the O/U was 59.5. The under cashed and Florida covered in the 48-10 triumph over Colorado State.

Florida has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over its past two games.

Tennessee has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last two.

Tennessee has lost two fumbles this season while Florida has let one get away.

Tennessee was favored by 34 points in its previous match and the Over/Under was set at 52.5. The under cashed and Tennessee failed to cover in that 24-0 victory over UTEP.

Over its last three contests, Tennessee is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Gators offense has registered one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Volunteers have put up four such plays.

The Florida defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tennessee has given up one such play.

The Florida offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Tennessee has created six such runs.

The Gators defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Volunteers have given up three such runs.

The Florida defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks eight times this year. Tennessee has produced five sacks.

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