A couple of schools that like to keep the ball on the ground, Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo and the No. 24 Navy Midshipmen (-9) are set to pay a visit to the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. ESPN2 owns the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.
No. 24 Navy vs. Houston Betting Odds 11/30/2019
The spread for this AAC game is sitting at 9 points in favor of Navy. The Midshipmen are currently receiving -360 moneyline odds while the Cougars are +280. The over/under is set at 59.5 points, and if one program can create a bunch of points early, it would likely produce a decent betting opportunity in-game.
The early action has moved toward the Midshipmen, as the opening line was 7. The game’s O/U hasn’t moved after being initially set at 59.5.
The Midshipmen are 8-2 straight up (SU), including 6-1 SU against AAC opponents. The Cougars are 4-7 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play. The surprising Midshipmen have gained 4.3 units so far and are 7-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 6-4.
The Cougars are down 0.3 units this season. The team is 6-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-6-1.
When these two programs met last year, Houston got the victory 49-36.
The Midshipmen just got a 35-28 victory over SMU last week where they allowed the Mustangs to pass for 251 yards and rush for 93 yards. Rashee Rice had a good day for the Mustangs in that one with 76 yards and a score on three catches. On the offensive side, Malcolm Perry completed nine passes for just 162 yards and one touchdown. Perry (195 yards on 38 rush attempts, two TDs) also mounted the running attack. Ryan Mitchell (three receptions, 48 yards, one TD) and Mychal Cooper (three catches, 41 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Houston is coming off of a 24-14 win over Tulsa. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Golden Hurricane to air it out for 381 yards. Keylon Stokes had a good outing in the loss for Tulsa, accounting for 144 yards on nine catches. For Houston, Clayton Tune completed eight-of-12 passes for 89 yards. Kyle Porter (57 yards on 14 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Tune (52 yards on 14 carries, one TD) led the running game as Porter (three receptions, 34 yards) and Marquez Stevenson (three catches, 19 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Navy has run the ball on 87.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has an overall rush percentage of 61 percent. The Midshipmen have produced 352 rush yards/game (including 371 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 40 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Cougars are totaling 193 rushing yards per contest (168 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Midshipmen should hold an advantage in terms of RB efficiency. Their running backs has produced 5.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Cougars have recorded 4.9 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.8 to opponents.
The Midshipmen have logged 103 yards per contest in the air overall (98 per game against conference opposition) and have eight passing scores so far. The Cougars have produced 186 pass yards per outing (212.0 in the AAC) and have 15 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Navy appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 107 yards and throw for 217 yards per game. Houston has allowed 157.0 yards per game on the ground and 304.9 to opponents in the air. The Midshipmen are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.45 to opposing QBs, while the Cougars have allowed an 8.14 ANY/A.
Perry has amassed 884 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 38-of-68 attempts with six passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Perry has a 10.66 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.11 over the last two outings.
We expect the Navy offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Malcolm Perry, Mychal Cooper and CJ Williams have collectively accounted for 510 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
On the other sideline, Clayton Tune has accounted for 983 yards, six TDs and five INTs. Tune’s ANY/A stands at 5.63 for the season and 6.39 across his last two outings.
We also expect the Houston offense to try for a balanced attack this Saturday. Kyle Porter (582 rushing yards, three rush TDs, 113 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), Clayton Tune (118 rush yards, one rush TD, zero receiving yards) and Marquez Stevenson (685 receiving yards, six receiving TDs) have combined for 354 total yards and three touchdowns the last two games.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Houston Cougars Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner – Navy, ATS Winner – Navy, O/U – Under
Team Betting Notes
The Midshipmen offense has registered six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cougars have put up nine such plays.
The Navy defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Houston has given up 14 such plays.
The Navy offense has created 36 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Houston has created 22 such runs.
The Midshipmen defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Cougars have given up 21 such runs.
The Navy defense has 24 sacks on the year while Houston has 19.
As a team, Navy has produced 5.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
Houston has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
In its last three matchups, Houston is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Navy’s previous game going into it was 70.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-28 triumph over SMU.
Over its last three contests, Navy is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Houston’s previous matchup was set at 57.5. The under cashed in the 24-14 win over Tulsa.
Navy has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a 32-point defeat to Notre Dame on November 16th accounting for the only loss over that span.