The No. 22 Appalachian State Mountaineers (-13) and Troy Trojans will do battle on the turf at Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium. This SBC showdown kicks off at 6:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ is scheduled to televise the action. These squads met a year ago with the final outcome being a 21-10 win for Appalachian State.
No. 22 Appalachian State vs. Troy Betting Odds 11/29/2019
Troy is entering this SBC game as a noticeable underdog and is currently getting 13 points. The Mountaineers are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Trojans are +375. If one squad can create a bunch of points early on it will produce a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 64 points.
Sharp bettors are siding with the Mountaineers, as the line opened at 11.5. The over/under has yet to move after being initially set at 64.
The Mountaineers have gained 2.0 units so far and are 7-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-6.
The Trojans are down 3.6 units this season. The team is 4-7 ATS and seven of its games have gone over the total.
The Mountaineers are 10-1 straight up (SU), including 6-1 SU against SBC opponents. The Trojans are 5-6 SU overall and 3-4 SU in conference play.
The Mountaineers are coming off a resounding 35-13 win over Texas State last week. Zac Thomas completed only eight-of-16 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns. Darrynton Evans (154 yards on 21 rush attempts, three TDs) and Marcus Williams Jr. (78 yards on 15 carries) led the ground attack while Jalen Virgil (three receptions, 26 yards) and Corey Sutton (two catches, 45 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
A week ago, Louisiana got the win against this Troy crew by a score of 53-3. The Trojans defense allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns to pass for 344 yards while rushing for 254 yards and five scores. Ja’Marcus Bradley put up a solid outing for Louisiana, recording 96 yards on five catches. As a group, the Trojans collectively completed 18-of-40 passes for 203 yards and two interceptions. Kaleb Barker went 15-for-32 for 178 yards and two interceptions while Gunnar Watson was three-of-eight for 25 yards. Jamontez Woods (57 yards on 13 rush attempts) and DK Billingsley (68 yards on 10 carries) mounted the running game as Kaylon Geiger (six receptions, 44 yards) and Reggie Todd (two catches, 33 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Appalachian State has run the ball on 61.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Troy has a rush percentage of 46 percent. The Mountaineers have produced 229 rush yards/game (including 244 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 28 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Trojans are averaging 153 rush yards per game (155 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.
Judging by the numbers this season, it’s looking like the Mountaineers ought to hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, as their backfield has logged 5.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Trojans have recorded 4.4 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.
The Mountaineers offense has averaged 200 yards in the air overall (218 per game versus conference opposition) and has 22 passing scores so far. The Trojans have recorded 314 pass yards per contest (329.0 against SBC foes) and have 30 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Appalachian State should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 143 rush yards and 176 pass yards per game. The Troy D has given up 271.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 154.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mountaineers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.54 to opposing QBs, while the Trojans have allowed a 7.06 ANY/A.
Thomas has amassed 1,845 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 156-of-253 attempts with 16 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. Thomas has a 7.13 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.50 over the last two outings.
The Mountaineers will likely try to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Corey Sutton (428 yards, four TDs), Darrynton Evans (1,037 rush yards, 13 rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (428 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the Appalachian State offensive scheme.
Kaleb Barker has completed 245-of-376 passes for 2,984 yards, 24 TDs and nine INTs for Troy. His ANY/A stands at 7.37 for the season and 6.85 over his past two games.
The Trojans will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Along with Kaylon Geiger (785 receiving yards, five receiving TDs), DK Billingsley (847 rush yards, nine rush TDs, 153 receiving yards) and Jabir Daughtry-Frye (146 rush yards, two rush TDs, 90 receiving yards) have seen quite a few touches lately.
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Troy Trojans NCAA Prediction
SU Winner – Appalachian State, ATS Winner – Appalachian State, O/U – Under
The Troy offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Appalachian State has let two get away.
The Troy defensive unit has notched 30 sacks on the year while Appalachian State has 25.
As a team, Appalachian State has averaged 4.8 yards per rush attempt across its last three outings and 5.9 over its last two.
Troy has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
In its last three matches, Troy is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Appalachian State’s last game was set at 49.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-13 triumph over Texas State.
In its last three matchups, Appalachian State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Troy’s last match was set at 74. The under cashed in the team’s 53-3 loss to Louisiana.