A couple of schools that like running the football, Head Coach Mike Locksley and the No. 21 Maryland Terrapins (+21) are gearing up to face off against their in-conference counterpart Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. The afternoon game gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and FS1 is in line to televise the action.
No. 21 Maryland vs. Michigan State Betting Odds 11/30/2019
Maryland is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving three touchdowns from oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 48.5 points, and it appears that there will probably be some good live betting opportunities for this game.
The line opened at -21. The game’s over/under has yet to change after it was set initially at 48.5.
The Terrapins are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 1-7 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Spartans are 5-6 SU overall and 3-5 SU in conference play. The Terrapins have lost 6.3 units so far in 2019 and are 4-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 6-4-1.
The Spartans have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 20.4 units. The team is 3-8 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-6.
The Terrapins dropped one to Nebraska 54-7 in a blowout where the passing game could’ve been sharper as the Terrapins completed 7-of-21 passes for 57 yards. Josh Jackson went four-for-12 for 33 yards while Tyrrell Pigrome completed three-of-seven for 24 yards. Anthony McFarland Jr. (35 yards on 10 rush attempts) and Javon Leake (80 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Tyler Mabry (one receptions, six yards) and Brian Cobbs (one catch, 12 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
The Michigan State Spartans are coming off of a 27-0 win over Rutgers. The defensive unit held its ground in the victory, keeping the Scarlet Knights to only 57 passing yards and 83 yards on the ground. Isaih Pacheco had a good outing in the loss, recording 25 yards on two catches for Rutgers. For Michigan State, Brian Lewerke completed 21-of-30 passes for 239 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Elijah Collins (109 rushing yards on 31 attempts) handled the running attack as Cody White (11 receptions, 136 yards, three TDs) and Jalen Nailor (five catches, 27 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Maryland has run the ball on 55.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan State has a rush percentage of 50.4 percent. The Terrapins have run for 170 yards per game (including 130 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 22 scores on the ground this year. The Spartans are totaling 126 rush yards per contest (115 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then the Spartans should hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has given up only 17 sacks while the D-line has registered 32 sacks. The Terrapins O-line has given up 34 sacks and their defense has generated only 21 sacks.
The Terps have logged 176 yards/contest in the air overall (144 per game versus conference opposition) and have 15 passing TDs so far. The Spartans have put up 229 pass yards per game (212.9 against Big 10 competition) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, Maryland has allowed 186 rush yards and 265 pass yards per game. Michigan State has been significantly better than that, allowing 103.5 yards per game on the ground and 215.9 to opposing teams in the air. The Spartans are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.62 to opposing QBs, while the Terrapins have allowed a 7.53 ANY/A.
Jackson has put up 1,098 pass yards this year, and has connected on 83-of-171 attempts with 10 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. Jackson’s got a 5.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 2.19 over the last two outings.
The Terrapins will likely try to maintain the pace by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Javon Leake (661 rush yards, eight rush TDs), Anthony McFarland Jr. (473 rush yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving TD), and Tayon Fleet-Davis (265 rush yards, two rush TDs, two receiving TDs) have delivered in the offense for Maryland.
In the hosts’ locker room, Brian Lewerke has recorded 2,251 yards, 15 TDs and eight INTs. Lewerke’s ANY/A stands at 6.16 for the season and 4.85 over his past two games.
The Spartans also like to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Cody White (663 receiving yards, five receiving TDs), Elijah Collins (824 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Julian Barnett (nine rush yards, 104 receiving yards) have gotten a lot of action lately.
When these two teams met a year ago, Michigan State won by three touchdowns 24-3.
Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State Spartans Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Maryland, O/U – Over
Team Betting Notes
Michigan State has lost eight fumbles this season while Maryland has lost seven.
The Michigan State defense has tallied 32 sacks on the year while Maryland has just 21.
Maryland has produced 3.1 yards per carry across its past three games and 3.3 over its last two.
Michigan State has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.7 over its past two.
In its last three matches, Michigan State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Maryland’s previous game going into it was 63.5. The under cashed in the team’s 54-7 loss to Nebraska.
Over its last three matchups, Maryland is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Michigan State’s previous matchup was 43.5. The under cashed in the 27-0 victory over Rutgers.
Maryland has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 41-point win over Rutgers on October 5th accounting for the only victory over that span.