No. 19 Boise State at No. 25 Fresno State – Free Pick 12/1/2018

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Saturday, 12/01/2018 at 07:45 pm FRESNO ST (11-2) at BOISE ST (10-3)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
317FRESNO ST 51 34.9 13.7 11-2 9-4-0 2-10-0 146.2 274.2 420.4 129.8 195.2 325
318BOISE ST +1 35.4 22.1 10-3 7-5-1 5-7-1 167.5 292 459.5 123.1 233 356.1

Last Updated: 2018-11-28

The No. 19 Boise State Broncos (-3) are coming into the Mountain West Championship Game as favorites as they prepare to take on the No. 25 Fresno State Bulldogs. The game gets going at 7:45 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to have the TV rights.

No. 25 Fresno State at No. 19 Boise State Betting Odds

Boise State is giving up 3 points in this MWC game. The Bulldogs are currently getting +120 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -140. This MWC game will probably present some in-game betting possibilities. The over/under is set at 51 points.

This game’s opening line was -3, while the total hasn’t changed since it opened at 51.

The Bulldogs are 10-2 straight up (SU), including 7-1 SU against conference opponents. The Broncos are 10-2 SU overall and are also 7-1 SU in conference play. The Bulldogs have gained 3.5 units so far in 2018 and are 8-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-9.

The Broncos have gained 0.5 units this season. The team is 7-4-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-6-1.

The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 31-13 victory over San Jose State last week where Marcus McMaryion completed 20-of-29 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns. Ronnie Rivers (92 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and Jordan Mims (55 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the ground attack while KeeSean Johnson (seven receptions, 173 yards, one TD) and Jared Rice (three catches, 49 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

The Boise State Broncos enter this Saturday’s matchup following a 33-24 win over Utah State. The defensive secondary allowed the Aggies to air it out for 363 yards and three touchdowns. Aaren Vaughns was a bright spot in the loss for Utah State, posting 107 yards on seven catches. For Boise State, Brett Rypien completed 23-of-32 passes for 310 yards and one touchdown. Alexander Mattison (200 yards on 37 rush attempts, three TDs) led the running game while CT Thomas (six receptions, 89 yards) and Sean Modster (five catches, 81 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Fresno State has run the ball on 53.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Boise State has an overall rush percentage of 52.0. The Bulldogs have run for 149 yards per game (including 140 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 27 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Broncos are putting up 163 rush yards per contest (162 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.

The Bulldogs have averaged 283 yards through the air overall (287 per game against conference opposition) and have 25 passing scores so far. The Broncos have produced 306 pass yards per outing (294.3 against MWC foes) and have 30 total pass TDs.

Fresno State seems to hold the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 122 yards and throw for 200 yards per game. Boise State has allowed 123.3 yards per game on the ground and 238.3 to opposing teams in the air. The Bulldogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.42 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos have allowed a 6.66 ANY/A.

McMaryion has put up 3,016 passing yards this season, and has connected on 241-of-342 attempts with 23 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions. McMaryion has a pristine 9.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.38 over the last two outings.

KeeSean Johnson (1,126 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns this season), Ronnie Rivers (390 rush yards, six rush TDs, 268 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Jamire Jordan (308 receiving yards, two TDs) have all played significant roles lately.

Brett Rypien has recorded 3,358 yards, 26 TDs and seven INTs for Boise State. His ANY/A sits at 8.20 for the year and 8.95 over his last two outings.

Alexander Mattison (1,070 rushing yards, 15 rush TDs, 133 receiving yards this season), Sean Modster (804 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and CT Thomas (496 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have combined for 719 total yards and seven touchdowns over the last two games.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos Betting Pick

SU Winner – Boise State, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The Bulldogs offense has registered nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Broncos have put up 14 such plays.

The Fresno State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Boise State has given up 10 such plays.

The Fresno State offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Boise State has created 12 such runs.

The Bulldogs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Broncos have given up 12 such runs.

The Boise State defense has sacked opposing QBs 37 times this season. Fresno State has registered just 21 sacks.

As a team, Fresno State has produced 4.0 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.1 over its last two.

Boise State has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its past two.

Over its last three games, Boise State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Fresno State’s previous game was set at 52. The under cashed in the team’s 31-13 victory over San Jose State.

In its last three contests, Fresno State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The Over/Under for Boise State’s last game was set at 63. The under cashed in the team’s 33-24 victory over Utah State.

Fresno State has won 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a November 9th defeat to Boise State representing the only loss over that stretch.

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