No. 11 Minnesota vs. Northwestern College Football Betting Pick 11/23/19

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Two schools that like running the football, Wildcats of Northwestern (+13.5) are set to welcome the No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (-13.5) to Ryan Field. This Big 10 showdown gets underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ABC. When these two squads met a year ago, Northwestern earned the win 24-14.

No. 11 Minnesota at Northwestern Betting Predictions 11/23/2019

Northwestern is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 13.5 points in this Saturday Big 10 game. In order to take the favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to put down $600 to net $100 back on the Golden Gophers (-600). The Wildcats are getting +425 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points. If Minnesota allows a touchdown or two early, it would likely create a reasonable live betting opportunity.

The early action has leaned to the Golden Gophers. The opening line was originally 12 and the game’s O/U was set initially at 41.

The profitable Golden Gophers have gained 7.9 units so far in 2019 and are 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 6-4.

The Wildcats have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 5.0 units. They’re 3-7 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-7.

The Golden Gophers are 9-1 straight up (SU), including 6-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Wildcats are 2-8 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play.

The Golden Gophers look to get back in stride after a 23-19 defeat to Iowa last week. The passing game was on point as Tanner Morgan completed 25 passes for 368 yards and one touchdown. Rodney Smith (46 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Tyler Johnson (nine receptions, 170 yards, one TD) and Rashod Bateman (six catches, 98 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Northwestern just got a 45-6 win over Massachusetts. The defense held its ground in the victory, limiting the Minutemen to only 227 passing yards and 83 yards on the ground. Bilal Ally was a bright spot in the loss, recording 66 rushing yards on 16 attempts for Massachusetts. For Northwestern, Aidan Smith completed seven-of-13 passes for 76 yards and two interceptions. Evan Hull (220 rushing yards on 24 attempts, four TDs) led the running game as Riley Lees (seven receptions, 76 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Minnesota has run the ball on 65.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Northwestern has an overall rush percentage of 58.9 percent. The Golden Gophers have rushed for 182 yards per game (including 207 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 23 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wildcats are logging 166 rush yards per game (136 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.

The Gophers offensive scheme has averaged 251 yards in the air overall (258 per game versus conference opposition) and has 22 passing TDs so far. The Wildcats have produced 125 pass yards per outing (128.0 against Big 10 foes) and have four total pass scores.

Defensively, Minnesota seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 123 rush yards and 184 pass yards per game. The Northwestern D has allowed 202.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gophers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.91 to opposing QBs, while the Wildcats have allowed a 5.91 ANY/A.

Morgan is up to 2,129 passing yards this year. He’s completed 138-of-209 attempts with 19 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. Morgan’s got a pristine 9.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.86 over the last two outings.

Aidan Smith has connected on 67-of-140 passes for 576 yards, one TD and eight INTs for Northwestern. His ANY/A stands at a horrendous 1.19 for the year and 3.56 across his past two outings.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats Free Prediction

SU Winner – Minnesota, ATS Winner – Minnesota, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Trends

The O/U for Minnesota’s last game was set at 45. The under cashed in the team’s 23-19 defeat to Iowa.

As a team, Minnesota has rushed for 4.1 yards per attempt over its past three games and 2.6 over its last two.

Northwestern has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.0 over its past two.

Northwestern has lost nine fumbles this season while Minnesota has lost six.

In its last three matchups, Minnesota is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Northwestern’s last match was set at 57.5. The under cashed in that 45-6 win over Massachusetts.

In its last three matches, Northwestern is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Golden Gophers offense has tallied 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Wildcats have accounted for one such play.

The Minnesota defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Northwestern has given up four such plays.

The Minnesota offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Northwestern has created 10 such runs.

The Golden Gophers defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up nine such runs.

The Minnesota defense has sacked opposing QBs 23 times this season. Northwestern has registered 19 sacks.

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