No. 11 Baylor at No. 25 TCU College Football Betting Pick 11/9/19


The No. 11 Baylor Bears (-2.5) are set to face off against the No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. FS1 owns the TV rights and the game’s scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET.

No. 11 Baylor at No. 25 TCU Betting Odds 11/9/2019

The spread for this Big 12 game is sitting at 2.5 points in favor of Baylor. The Bears are currently getting -140 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are +120. The over/under has been set at 51 points. If one program catches a lucky break early on, it will likely produce a worthwhile live betting opportunity.

The early action has slanted to the under, as the game’s total originally opened at 52.

The Bears are 8-0 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Horned Frogs are 4-4 SU overall and are also 2-3 SU in conference play. The profitable Bears have gained 6.1 units so far in 2019 and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 4-4.

The Horned Frogs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 4.3 units. They’re 3-5 ATS and the over’s hit in five of their games.

When these two programs faced each other a year ago, TCU knocked Baylor off by a touchdown 16-9.

The Bears are hoping to stay undefeated following a 17-14 victory over West Virginia last week. The passing attack was sharp as Charlie Brewer completed 20-of-26 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns. Denzel Mims (five receptions, 99 yards, one TD) and Tyquan Thornton (five catches, 86 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

TCU just fell 34-27 to Oklahoma State. Max Duggan completed 21-of-39 passes for 258 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Duggan (86 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) and Darius Anderson (52 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game while Taye Barber (seven receptions, 60 yards) and Jalen Reagor (seven catches, 128 yards) led the TCU pass-catchers in the loss.

When glancing at offensive play selection, each squad has a nearly identical (56-44) run-pass ratio on the season. The Bears have produced 199 rush yards per game (including 167 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 22 scores on the ground this year. The Horned Frogs are averaging 220 rush yards per contest (196 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Bears may hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Horned Frogs have ran for 5.0 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 3.8 to opponents.

The Bears have logged 281 yards per contest in the air overall (303 per game against conference opposition) and have 15 passing TDs so far. The Horned Frogs have produced 222 pass yards per outing (245.0 against Big 12 competition) and have 12 total pass scores.

Defensively, Baylor has let opponents rush for an average of 122 yards and pass for 219 yards per game. TCU has allowed 128.4 yards per game on the ground and 195.6 to opposing teams in the air. The Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.54 to opposing QBs, while the Horned Frogs have given up a 5.21 ANY/A.

Brewer has amassed 1,831 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 137-of-205 attempts with 13 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions. Brewer has a sparkling 8.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.85 over the last two outings.

For the home team, Max Duggan has accounted for 1,132 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Duggan’s ANY/A stands at 5.75 for the year and 5.28 across his past two games.

Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor, O/U – Over


Betting Notes

The Bears offense has registered nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Horned Frogs have accounted for five such plays.

The Baylor defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while TCU has given up seven such plays.

The Baylor offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while TCU has created 16 such runs.

Both teams have allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards and 30 running plays of 10+ yards.

The Baylor defense has 26 sacks on the year while TCU has just 15.

Baylor has rushed for 4.4 yards per attempt over its last three outings and 4.3 over its last two.

TCU has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.

Over its last three matches, TCU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Baylor’s previous game was set at 56.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-14 win over West Virginia.

Over its last three matches, Baylor is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for TCU’s last game was set at 58.5. The over cashed in the 34-27 loss to Oklahoma State.

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