The Purple Eagles and Stags are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Stags will host the game at Leo D. Mahoney Arena in Fairfield, CT. The over/under for this game is set at 146.5 points, and Fairfield is favored by -6.5 vs. Niagara in a Metro Atlantic Athletic conference matchup.


The Pick: Fairfield Stags -6.5

This game will be played at Leo D. Mahoney Arena at 7:00 ET on Friday, February 16th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Stags.
  • Not only will Fairfield pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -6.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 146.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Can Niagara Pull Out the Win as Road Underdogs?

Heading into their game against Fairfield, Niagara has gone 12-11 overall and 8-5 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Purple Eagles are 4-6 in non-conference games compared to 7-4 on the road.

So far this season, Niagara has been the underdog in 12 of their 23 games, going 6-6 in those matchups. As the underdog, the Purple Eagles have gone 5-5.

As the underdog this season, Niagara has been an impressive 9-3 vs. the spread. On the road, the Purple Eagles have gone 10-1 ATS and are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 road games. Overall, Niagara has an ATS record of 14-8 this year.

Over their last three games, the over/under record for Niagara is 0-3. On the season, the over/under record for the Purple Eagles is 14-7-1. The average scoring total in their games this year is 147.5 points, compared to an average over/under line of 138.6. Today’s over/under line of 146.5 is lower than their season average. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 134 points.

The Purple Eagles’ offense finished with 71 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 75.1 points per contest. The team’s scoring leader is Ahmad Henderson II, who holds an average of 13 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Braxton Bayless is averaging 11.5 points per game this season.

On defense, Niagara is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 73.7 points per game. Niagara’s three-point defense is currently 21st in the country at 5.3 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 46.4% of their shots vs. Niagara.

Will Fairfield Live Up to Expectations at Home?

With a 15-9 record, Fairfield has been a much better team at home than on the road this season. They have gone 6-3 at home compared to 8-6 on the road. Over their last 10 games at home, the Stags have gone 7-3, and they have won their last two games at home.

Overall, Fairfield has been favored in 13 of their games, going 10-3 in those matchups. They are coming off a 64-62 win over Saint Peter’s, and they have won their last three games. On the season, they have gone 9-4 in conference play compared to 6-5 in non-conference games.

As the favorite, Fairfield has gone just 4-6 vs. the spread in their last 10 games. Their overall ATS record this season is 10-13, including a mark of 4-5 at home. Over their last three home games, the Stags are 1-2 vs. the spread.

So far this season, the over/under record in Fairfield games is 16-7. The average over/under line in their games is 143.8 and today’s line of 146.5 is higher than the average scoring total of 147.7. Over their last three games, the OU record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 140 points.

The Fairfield offense is coming off a game where they scored 64 points against Saint Peter’s. They posted a field goal percentage of 50% and connected on 7 threes. Jalen Leach is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 15.9. Meanwhile, Caleb Fields also brings a PPG average of 15.7 into the game.

In terms of defense, Fairfield is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 71.2 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.6 threes per game vs. Niagara. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 30.7%.